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Solkanar512 posted:Like Erlog said, what is your empirical evidence that Trump wasn't just a flavor of the month at that point in time? At that time none. Mid November is the exact moment people should have started believing. You could argue October too since my then he had lead for 3 months.
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May 10, 2016 13:33
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Solkanar512 posted:Like Erlog said, what is your empirical evidence that Trump wasn't just a flavor of the month at that point in time? You only have the data point of 2012 for the "flavor of the month" model. Where's your empirical evidence that it would apply in 2016?
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May 10, 2016 13:35
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pacmania90 posted:You only have the data point of 2012 for the "flavor of the month" model. Where's your empirical evidence that it would apply in 2016? There are tons of candidates in lots of different primary races that receive an initial bump in popularly and then flame out. Howard Dean comes to mind, for example.
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May 10, 2016 13:48
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azflyboy posted:I'd guess a big part of why this was swept under the rug was the fact that any criminal charges against the judge would almost certainly result in almost every sentence he issued suddenly having excellent grounds for an appeal, to say nothing of the inevitable civil lawsuits and the possibility of the DOJ deciding to get involved. On top of that, there's no way a judge could behave this way for so long without other people being at least somewhat aware of it. Prosecuting him would probably reveal that the bailiffs, court clerks/administration, prosecutors and defense attorneys, etc. etc. were aware of and ignored the situation. And goodness we can't have that sort of mess cropping up in the pursuit of justice.
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May 10, 2016 14:00
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Well of course candidates aren't going to drop out at the height of their popularity. That trend describes every primary candidate in the election except for the eventual winner. Donald Trump was not uniquely unelectable, yet plenty of pundits were confidently predicting his defeat without being able to describe a plausible mechanism to make it happen.
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May 10, 2016 14:05
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pacmania90 posted:Well of course candidates aren't going to drop out at the height of their popularity. That trend describes every primary candidate in the election except for the eventual winner. There are plenty of candidates who never obtain that popularity to begin with. Jim Webb, George Pataki, Lincoln Chafee and so on this year alone.
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May 10, 2016 14:35
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pacmania90 posted:Well of course candidates aren't going to drop out at the height of their popularity. That trend describes every primary candidate in the election except for the eventual winner. Wait, if Trump was not "uniquely unelectable", then what exactly does that mean? Where does that term apply if not to someone like Trump? Barring, of course, literally unelectable people like those under 35.
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May 10, 2016 14:35
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Not sure about 'uniquely' but 'without equal in the modern era' is probably true. I'd think even Nader or Perot would be far more electable. Remember how the Republican party did all that soul-searching after losing in 2012 and had a plan to grow their base beyond rural white males? I do!
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May 10, 2016 14:40
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Party Plane Jones posted:How in the gently caress is this guy not going to prison? Breaking the law is the perk you get for working in the justice system. Like if you work as McDonald's you can sneak a few fries or something if you are working late and the manager isn't watching. If you are a judge, a prosecutor, or a cop (or related to one) you can be a pedophile, massively abuse your authority for personal gain, or kill people and the system will let you get away with retirement or maybe nothing. The system works. Eggplant Squire fucked around with this message at 14:51 on May 10, 2016 |
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May 10, 2016 14:48
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Mozi posted:Not sure about 'uniquely' but 'without equal in the modern era' is probably true. I'd think even Nader or Perot would be far more electable. What happened?
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May 10, 2016 14:50
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Mr Interweb posted:Last time around, Trump was rocking the polling among Republicans thanks to the birth certificate crap. But then he started plummeting almost immediately after Obama smoked him at the Correspondents dinner, further made worse after the Bin Laden announcement. I think a good portion of that was due to the fact that Trump uncharacteristically shut up afterwards and didn't make any further hay out of the situation. I'm honestly surprised that the birther thing hasn't been brought up more often with respect to Trump. I mean, here you have a guy running for president of the United States who, only a few short years ago, publicly championed a racist fringe conspiracy theory. That says a lot about Trump's character and judgment right there.
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May 10, 2016 14:52
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zoux posted:What happened? Having a plan doesn't preclude one from completely ignoring it.
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May 10, 2016 14:53
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My Imaginary GF posted:I'm continually amazed that so many Americans have been willing to vote for a man who came the closest to sinking an American aircraft carrier since WW2. I think it was someone here who said " if Mcain had crashed one more plane during Vietnam he would have technically been a Viet Cong ace."
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May 10, 2016 14:54
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I'm sure somebody else could explain it better but from my view, the base was engaged and fired up by Trump and sometimes in a democracy that actually matters a lot. The party leadership didn't have the control they thought they did and years of legitimizing wrong opinions and facts made it so there isn't any way to engage constructively with the base without you falling into the 'them' part of 'us vs. them.' These voters might be wrong but years and years of unfulfilled promises by the Republican party didn't help the leadership's credibility with them either. I'm sure there's more... I guess at heart it's the split between the big-money Republicans and the small-money Republicans with the latter saying 'where's the beef?' Mozi fucked around with this message at 14:59 on May 10, 2016 |
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May 10, 2016 14:57
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DaveWoo posted:I'm honestly surprised that the birther thing hasn't been brought up more often with respect to Trump. I mean, here you have a guy running for president of the United States who, only a few short years ago, publicly championed a racist fringe conspiracy theory. That says a lot about Trump's character and judgment right there. Eh, no more than anything more recent he's said. Odds are for most people it's old history compared to his wall, Muslim banning, etc, and those who do care are either already against him, or appreciate his Just Asking Questions.
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May 10, 2016 15:01
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Budweiser is renaming itself "America" until the election. I wish I were joking.
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May 10, 2016 15:01
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Mozi posted:I'm sure somebody else could explain it better but from my view, the base was engaged and fired up by Trump and sometimes in a democracy that actually matters a lot. The party leadership didn't have the control they thought they did and years of legitimizing wrong opinions and facts made it so there isn't any way to engage constructively with the base without you falling into the 'them' part of 'us vs. them.' These voters might be wrong but years and years of unfulfilled promises by the Republican party didn't help the leadership's credibility with them either. I'm sure there's more... No what happened is that you just can't make people not racist and not stupid because you're losing elections.
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May 10, 2016 15:03
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zoux posted:What happened? All of the 'hispanic inroads' candidates got nuked by someone who said what the GOP base wants to hear: the economy is bad because of shiftless minorities
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May 10, 2016 15:05
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Luigi Thirty posted:Budweiser is renaming itself "America" until the election. Can't say it's inappropriate.
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May 10, 2016 15:06
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Sorry, I know we cynically used your insane racist and religious fervor to send you to the polls for 20 years but now that you're a huge liability can Hispanics be in the party too?
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May 10, 2016 15:07
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Luigi Thirty posted:Budweiser is renaming itself "America" until the election.
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May 10, 2016 15:10
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Clinton 2016: I Want To Believequote:Known for her grasp of policy, Mrs. Clinton has spoken at length in her presidential campaign on topics ranging from Alzheimer’s research to military tensions in the South China Sea. But it is her unusual knowledge about extraterrestrials that has struck a small but committed cohort of voters.
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May 10, 2016 15:12
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Luigi Thirty posted:Budweiser is renaming itself "America" until the election. I assume they have intellectual property related to design and visual elements but is there anything stopping someone else from also selling "america" brand beer?
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May 10, 2016 15:13
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You are both right.
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May 10, 2016 15:15
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Mayor McCheese is on the Diane Rehm show defending the NC bathroom bill. He blames liberals btw.
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May 10, 2016 15:19
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Mozi posted:Not sure about 'uniquely' but 'without equal in the modern era' is probably true. I'd think even Nader or Perot would be far more electable. zoux posted:Sorry, I know we cynically used your insane racist and religious fervor to send you to the polls for 20 years but now that you're a huge liability can Hispanics be in the party too? I think this is the most succinct description of their strategy possible.
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May 10, 2016 15:22
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showbiz_liz posted:Here's the official DoJ complaint (sorry, irritating download link): https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/2827915/NC-DOJComplaint.pdf This legitimately moves me to tears. It's like a powerful thunderbolt of Justice and Equality against the face of bigotry and hate.  Loretta Lynch for POTUS 2016!
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May 10, 2016 15:22
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Your Dunkle Sans posted:This legitimately moves me to tears. It's like a powerful thunderbolt of Justice and Equality against the face of bigotry and hate. I heard the GOP are looking for a strong alternative! Maybe we should tip them off about her?
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May 10, 2016 15:24
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William Bear posted:Come governors, McCheeses This only got a couple of quotes, and it is just so incredibly perfect it deserves another page.
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May 10, 2016 15:27
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zoux posted:What happened? They looked at the Ozymandiate remains of the California Republican party and said "why not nominate the human equivalent of Proposition 187?"
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May 10, 2016 15:30
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This will be the next phase of the recycling time - the luciferians will stop working in secret and announce themselves (they could stage a second coming of Christ) - in this case arriving as extraterrestrials. They'll need our help for reproduction and will help humans live longer and rule the planet.
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May 10, 2016 15:33
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Shifty Pony posted:Mayor McCheese is on the Diane Rehm show defending the NC bathroom bill. McCrory is making the national rounds these days eh? He was on Greta/Fox News last night, It would be cool if he would talk to local reporters too.  http://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/under-the-dome/article76694332.html quote:I'm being threatened by the federal government. Transportation funds, housing funds, university funds. It's like big brother is all of a sudden descended upon our state in a very coordinated political way but actually, what the attorney general — what the national media is missing, this is no longer a mandate on North Carolina. They are making bathroom rules for every employer in the United States of America with over 15 employees and telling them that they must allow gender identity to be the new choice of what restroom or shower people use at a place of work.  edit: The Wedge Brewery in Asheville NC is doing a thing: 
UFOTacoMan fucked around with this message at 15:39 on May 10, 2016 |
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May 10, 2016 15:33
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Wax Dynasty posted:They looked at the Ozymandiate remains of the California Republican party and said "why not nominate the human equivalent of Proposition 187?" In retrospect, that prop was aptly named. Because Pete "Pito" Wilson murdered the gently caress out of the state GOP.
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May 10, 2016 15:34
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McDowell posted:This will be the next phase of the recycling time - the luciferians will stop working in secret and announce themselves (they could stage a second coming of Christ) - in this case arriving as extraterrestrials. They'll need our help for reproduction and will help humans live longer and rule the planet. Oh, awesome, you're back off your meds. Now tell me about the lizard people! 
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May 10, 2016 15:39
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McDowell posted:This will be the next phase of the recycling time - the luciferians will stop working in secret and announce themselves (they could stage a second coming of Christ) - in this case arriving as extraterrestrials. They'll need our help for reproduction and will help humans live longer and rule the planet. Shin Megami Tensei V is going to be loving awesome.
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May 10, 2016 15:40
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Luigi Thirty posted:Budweiser is renaming itself "America" until the election. this man was not joking some things are so far beyond parody i don't even know what to call them
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May 10, 2016 15:45
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Shifty Pony posted:Mayor McCheese is on the Diane Rehm show defending the NC bathroom bill. Did she continue her pattern of not calling guests out on their bullshit?
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May 10, 2016 15:46
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Lol remember when Diane Rehm indulged an anti-Semitic canard to ask Bernie Sanders about his dual citizenship with Israel. This election has been so strange that I had nearly forgotten.
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May 10, 2016 15:48
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McDowell posted:This will be the next phase of the recycling time - the luciferians will stop working in secret and announce themselves (they could stage a second coming of Christ) - in this case arriving as extraterrestrials. They'll need our help for reproduction and will help humans live longer and rule the planet. I agree, Demon: the Fallen is the best White Wolf game.
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May 10, 2016 15:49
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There are plenty of gimmick candidates that have their limelight moment in the primary. I think most people assumed Trump was another one of those. He wanted to increase the visibility of his brand and maybe settle a personal score with JEB._ After that, people figure he'd commit campaign suicide like Newt or Steele. Totally wrong, but you can see why people thought it would happen. Doubly so because the party establishment well, there was no way in hell they were going to let Trump win, right? But there were too many kingmakers and a poor crop of would be kings.
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May 10, 2016 15:50
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