Stultus Maximus posted:

"Well, Donald, I've played the serious straight man and now we get to pretend that we've both come to a serious understanding"

Quorum posted:

Yep, aside from being Wrong About Trump in a really stupid way (and really, who among us wasn't?), he's been pretty reliable this primary season. The demographic model in particular has been on the nose. Leftist posters just don't like him because he (correctly) predicted that Bernie was done after Super Tuesday. For some reason this manifests as accusing him of being wrong all the time.

Solkanar512 posted:

I wouldn't be surprised, but there's been that contrarian "ugh it's too popular I must poo poo all over it" thing going way before Bernie.

Cythereal posted:

Silver himself put it best: his models didn't predict the Republican base losing their goddamn minds.

Xae posted:

Also primary polling is notoriously lovely.

Garbage in, garbage out still applies.

But I'm sure somewhere one of the couple hundred broken clocks of a pundit was right. There for statistics have been disproven.

Check mate nerds.

Grouchio posted:

I wonder how that meeting between Trump and Ryan really went down...

kik2dagroin posted:

I kind of hope he reads these e-mails all the time now, aweing at the bullshit he's spent decades fomenting

quote:

RUSH: I just got an email from a Trumpist who -- it's fascinating. I know all these Trump supporters and they're fantasizing about what Trump is gonna tell Paul Ryan when they have their big confab tomorrow, and I have to read one of these to you. Here, I just printed it out. This helps me to understand the average Trump supporter's mental attitude about all this, and it helps me to extrapolate and then understand how Trump supporters are gonna react to anything that involves Trump.

It's not a full-fledged barometer, but it offers quite a bit of -- even though it is anecdotal, even though this is anecdotal, I will wager that after I read this a lot of you Trump supporters are gonna be going, "Yeah, yeah, that's exactly what he ought to do." Let's see if I'm right.

"Hey, Rush," starts the email, "here's what Trump ought to say at his meeting with Paul Ryan. 'Screw you. You're the representative of one district in one state. Let me tell you how things are gonna work. First, you are gonna apologize to me, and you're gonna say you don't know what you were thinking when you refused to endorse me when you were asked. The next thing you're gonna do, you're gonna say you are fully behind me, and you will do everything humanly possible to see that I win, period. Otherwise I'm gonna call you out for what you really are. I'm gonna endorse your primary opponent, and I'm gonna actively campaign for him. The next words out of your mouth better be, "Yes, I agree," or else. Or else you're fired.'"

That is what an ardent Trump supporter sent me in an email saying that's what he's expecting Trump to say to Paul Ryan. (interruption) My friend is nuts? I'm not saying he's not. No, I'm just telling you. You don't think that is representative of a whole lot of Trumpists? That's what they think Trump does. That's what a lot of them think Trump does. That's The Art of the Deal. That's negotiation. Let me read it again. Let me just read the words without throwing in my own emphasis, okay? Just an email from a friend of mine who I think, I could be wrong, but I think it's gonna be close to being fairly representative to what Trump supporters -- maybe it's a fantasy, maybe fantasizing what they hope Trump would do.

But here again it is. What Trump should say at his meeting with Ryan from a friend of mine who sent me an email. Remember now, these are not my words here. I'm reading an email from an ardent Trump supporter, a guy who thinks if Trump doesn't win we're finished, there's no other alternative. If Trump doesn't win it's over as we've known it. That's what this guy believes.

"Hello, congressman. Screw you. You're the representative of a small district in one state. Let me tell you how things are gonna work. First, you're gonna apologize. And you're gonna say you don't know what you were thinking when you couldn't bring yourself to endorse me last week when you were asked. The next thing you're gonna say is that you are fully behind me and you're gonna do everything human possible humanly possible to see that I get elected, period. Otherwise, I'm gonna publicly call you out for what you are. I'm gonna endorse your opponent. I'm gonna actively campaign for him. So the next words out of your mouth better be, 'Yes, I agree, sir,' or else." And then Trump should leave the meeting.

Now, we know that's not gonna happen because Trump's already out there saying (paraphrasing), "I love Ryan. He's a great guy. I want Ryan to remain chairman of the convention." Does that bother you, by the way? Didn't bother you? You didn't want Trump to put his own guy in there? You wouldn't like to see Katrina Pierson chairman of the Republican National Convention? Maybe offer it to Heidi Klum, you know, as an olive branch of peace. "Hey, Heidi, how'd you like to come run the convention for me?" Just toss it right back at Hillary's PAC.
...

https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2016/05/11/what_trump_should_say_to_paul_ryan_as_written_by_my_ardent_trumpist_friend

Kro-Bar posted:

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/730787210488909825

Gee, what is it about Tiger Woods that the GOP dislikes so much?

Kro-Bar posted:

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/730787210488909825

Gee, what is it about Tiger Woods that the GOP dislikes so much?

alpha_destroy posted:

This is no doubt exactly it. I have a friend who always complained about fast food workers asking for $15/hour because that's what he made. Why he never complained that he should be paid more too I never understood.

zoux posted:

https://twitter.com/brianmrosenthal/status/730788817578434560

Oh boy

Daniel Bryan posted:

He'll still sell it but when the shady gun auctioneer wants nothing to do with you

https://twitter.com/RawStory/status/730778252516659201

SpiderHyphenMan posted:

Joementum, objectively the smartest person in this subforum, said repeatedly that Trump winning the nomination would mean "everything that we think we know about politics is wrong."
Reminder that Marco Rubio came within 1.2% of Trump in loving Iowa. For five days, everyone was saying that this was it, we were coming back to reality, and Marco Rubio was going to be the nominee. Apologies were made to Joementum and Nate Silver.
And then the Golden Son of the Establishment was murdered by a vengeful outcast, as the world-ending threat stood not ten feet away, smiling.

zoux posted:

https://twitter.com/brianmrosenthal/status/730788817578434560

Oh boy

zoux posted:

https://twitter.com/viaAlana/status/730790867804393473

Hmmm wonder if someone is planning on 2020

WhiskeyJuvenile posted:

Republicans' only hope is Haley

Daniel Bryan posted:

Blah blah blah blah blah Ryan will endorse Trump soon

https://twitter.com/CBSEveningNews/status/730779414561193984

They'll all fall in line soon enough

BI NOW GAY LATER posted:

Sabato's Crystal Ball takes a look at possible VP choices for Clinton: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-veepstakes-part-one-clintons-choices/

I think he overrates Kaine, but wouldn't be surprised by that pick.

My personal view is that it's between three or four people:

Castro
Warren
Kaine
---------
Perez

Kro-Bar posted:

When has nominating a rising political star with no national experience been a problem before?

theflyingorc posted:

On this insanely expansive map, Clinton only needs 43 EVs out of 168.

26% of the tossups is not a lot to win. If she gets Ohio, Pennsylvania, OR Florida she's basically a lock.

Phone posted:

The only thing that will tank Hillary in the general is if she gets caught with a dead girl or a live boy.

quote:

While Republican state leaders have complained about being “bullied” by the federal government over House Bill 2, lobbyists in Raleigh tell WRAL News they and the businesses they represent are being bullied by state lawmakers seeking to silence business opposition to the new law.

Lobbyists say they’ve been told – either directly by legislative leaders or by lawmakers’ staff – that, if they or the businesses they represent speak out publicly against House Bill 2, they can expect retribution from House and Senate leaders.

Legislation they want won’t move, and other bills could actually target them. WRAL News spoke with 11 lobbyists who have experienced or are aware of such actions, but none would speak on the record for fear they would lose business or be targeted for retribution.

House Majority Leader Mike Hager, a vocal supporter of House Bill 2, recently tweeted at a lobbyist, “Wow I would think from all your negative posts about HB2 that u weren’t a lobbyist and didn’t have to work with the majority.”

“That’s not a threat,” Hager, R-Rutherford, explained to WRAL News. “We want people that’ll work with us. We don’t want people that’ll go out there and bash us on Twitter and bash us on Facebook.”

Hager wants to remove state tax breaks that currently benefit American Airlines, NASCAR, Google, Apple and Facebook, all of which have taken public positions against House Bill 2. But he said that’s just a coincidence.

Evil Fluffy posted:

Unless Clinton shits all over the Steelers and maybe the Eagles while wearing a bunch of Patriots/Ravens gear to rallies she's going to win PA easily.

haveblue posted:

Wouldn't it be a dead boy or a live girl here?

Slate Action posted:

This article was written by Harry "Even Wronger Than Nate Silver" Enten.

CommieGIR posted:

Daniel Bryan posted:

The hill they want to die on isn't even popular with the electorate.

Daniel Bryan posted:

The hill they want to die on isn't even popular with the electorate.

Daniel Bryan posted:

Hey, have some gubernatorial approval ratings courtesy of Morning Consult