|
MrBigglesworth posted:Today is Apple Dividend day, but that doesn't explain the $2.38 drop, it should have only been down nominally about 57 cents to account for the div. Getting dangerously close to the 80s Turns out, a strong dollar doesn't help expensive products sell overseas. Apple's been underperforming for a while and institutions are taking long-standing profits off the table. Here's AAPL since 2015:  Chart 1: AAPL's hitting lower highs and lower lows. That's a downtrend. Chart 2: AAPL's RSI has been mostly bearish for a while. Chart 3: Relative to the technology sector, AAPL has been underperforming since Summer 2015. Chart 4: Relative to the S&P 500, technology as a sector has been underperforming since earnings season started.
|
#
?
May 12, 2016 17:32
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 23:10 |
|
|
Harry posted:Anyone else on the McAfee express to mad gainz (MGT)? I picked up 200 shares two days ago, really curious if people buy in late tomorrow morning orrrr if it's going to drop
|
|
#
?
May 12, 2016 20:23
|
|
|
Harry posted:Anyone else on the McAfee express to mad gainz (MGT)? http://youtu.be/bKgf5PaBzyg If he'll get me some of those bath salts then maybe
|
|
#
?
May 12, 2016 21:53
|
|
|
HOS update! Talked to someone whose friend works there, only 4 off 26 boats are working! 22 are parked!!! Edison Chouest has something like 250 boats tied off! Christobevii3 fucked around with this message at 02:47 on May 13, 2016 |
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 01:08
|
|
|
Where is the guy in HOS for the update? BAIL!!!! Also, C&J's services about to declare bankruptcy and Key Energy Group. We ran off Robert Drummand at SLB and he went there, Tom Teipner got ran off today. He was head of US wireline. http://www.slb.com/about/execmanagement.aspx
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 04:43
|
|
|
I'm in HOS, but I'm not overly concerned about it. It is obvious that the market is godawful terrible, but bear in mind that there is also a cost savings when they take the vessels out of service. The crew is generally furloughed or let go. Hornbeck has shown a remarkable ability to not bleed cash (in contrast to their peers). They also have consistently the best margins. The original thesis is that they would weather the downturn if the downturn came, and they've shown that thus far. They have a ton of cash, and an untapped revolver.
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 05:05
|
|
|
You do lower cash bleed idling boats but they are also salt water boats. You have to still run the bileage pump, replace the seals, repaint, etc. I can't imagine idling 22 of the 26 boats completely is that cost effective. With that glut of boats too the top end boats will be charging a much lower margin. I don't for see deepwater work out of fourchon returning until 2018 at this rate. The 2016 year is basically gone now if work hasn't started up yet, 2017 looks to be just as bad and until the majors have a full year of positive cash flow and stability they won't commit to anything in the gulf. So optimistic outcome is 2018 you see revenue rates 50% below the peak in 2014/2015 and realistically 2019 before any return. Do you like sitting on nothing positive for 2-3 years? Chouest is about 20x the size of HOS too so they will bankrupt HOS before hurting too much. If you don't believe me look at the list of their companies. They also bought out Bollinger recently. They own 1/2 of Port Fourchon and HOS has most of their boats parked at their companies. http://www.chouest.com/employees.html Christobevii3 fucked around with this message at 05:59 on May 13, 2016 |
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 05:56
|
|
|
Arkane posted:there is also a cost savings when they take the vessels out of service. The crew is generally furloughed or let go. Sounds healthy. I realize now's the time for risk in energy, but that made me laugh. I've only got XLE since I don't know the sector beyond majors. CL's more my game.
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 07:02
|
|
|
Now is not the time for risk in energy, the time was prior to the 100%+ rally (300%+ in a lot of cases) in most of these medium/small names. Getting in now you're just asking to be kicked in the nuts when when the post-oil rally gloom sets in. OPEC numbers just out and surplus will remain around 1mil barrels a day all year according to their projections. Oil is already up at the level that multiple domestic producers have *publicly stated* they will restart drilling. Canada coming back online already. Nigeria acting like it has acted for 30 years, so not sure anyone cares about that. Venezuela is a serious concern for the oil bear case, but I feel all the downside pressure outweighs it and I also feel the likelihood of Venezuelan production coming to a halt due to social unrest/revolution to be near nil. Please keep slaughtering retail stuff like it's the end of the world- I'd love to buy GPS around $12 greasyhands fucked around with this message at 15:57 on May 13, 2016 |
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 13:29
|
|
|
greasyhands posted:Please keep slaughtering retail stuff like it's the end of the world- I'd love to buy GPS around $12
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 14:40
|
|
|
Old Navy? Like every lower/middle class person in america
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 15:45
|
|
|
greasyhands posted:Old Navy? Like every lower/middle class person in america
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 15:47
|
|
|
Old Navy and Gap has some really good stuff? Old Navy's athletic and maternity wear is cheap and really good. Gap regularly comes out with a couple cult fast fashion pieces. Also Gap owns Athleta and Banana Republic, both of which are definitely very mainstream. Somewhat fashion conscious middle class young people definitely shop at Target, Old Navy, and Gap, but uh. Walmart is 100% not on the list. Rurutia fucked around with this message at 15:54 on May 13, 2016 |
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 15:52
|
|
|
Josh Lyman posted:Don't they shop at Walmart/Target? Believe it or not, they shop at multiple stores Rurutia posted:Old Navy and Gap has some really good stuff? Old Navy's athletic and maternity wear is cheap and really good. Gap regularly comes out with a couple cult fast fashion pieces. Yeah they make really solid stuff and are a pure clothing play. They aren't going to suffer the same ultimate fate as Macy's/Sears/Nordstrom's etc greasyhands fucked around with this message at 15:55 on May 13, 2016 |
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 15:53
|
|
|
And furthermore who uses Pinterest anymore *is a middle class white male aged 18 to 34*
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 15:53
|
|
|
What is going on with Nvidia
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 16:13
|
|
|
Nvidia beat and raised expectations, as they have been doing for awhile. New cards look great, AMD is barely a competitor anymore.
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 16:18
|
|
|
MrBigglesworth posted:I really hope so. I have been in APDN for way too long. We have financials coming up on May 12, I still dont expect any real movement until sometime in 2017. But the stock should not be where it is, some may remember my griping about that short attack from the "pump stopper" rear end in a top hat who shaved $4 off the price by printing a bullshit 55 page article on Seeking Alpha. After a few days of good gains this got beaten up pretty bad overnight. Down 17.92% today.
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 16:23
|
|
|
Yeah they had a poo poo, low income quarter, because cotton is extremely seasonal. They also have pilots that havent lifted off the ground so to speak. The next 2 quarters should have some very impressive income.
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 16:42
|
|
|
I'm so glad I bought NVDA for $36 when they announced their new GPU. Prolly gonna keep going up but I sold this morning at 40 because hey 11%. Will probably buy again on a dip. I dunno about those clothing companies specifically but if the next president decides to clamp down on free trade poo poo then you could be in for a world of hurt on those. I'm super averse to retail in general though. Oh also I'm thinking about picking up some firearms companies leading into the next election... if HRC is elected I feel like there will be a run on guns just like when Obama was elected. Just like S&W, Ruger, maaaybe Olin (they make ammo). Moridin920 fucked around with this message at 17:44 on May 13, 2016 |
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 17:38
|
|
|
Moridin920 posted:if the next president decides to clamp down on free trade poo poo If the next president decides to clamp down on free trade poo poo, then A) The entire economy is in a whole world of megashit, and B) It's donald trump, and that means somehow he got elected, which means the entire country is perma-hosed, time to pack up your connestoga wagon and move to Canada, pilgrim I'm being somewhat facetious of course, but in all seriousness if anyone's current investment philosophy is based on "what if Trump wins," they had better be selling everything and going long on ammunition and canned food.
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 17:46
|
|
|
Yes, completely. If you want to hedge for the possibility that Trump gets elected you should be buying water filters and ammo, not stocks.
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 18:08
|
|
|
Counterpoint would be an argument that the only way Trump gets elected is if he shifts dramatically away from all the batshit crazy ideas and somehow turns into some semblance of a viable candidate, in which case, maybe that would carry forward into his term. I don't buy that argument as remotely plausible, but hell, six months ago I didn't think there was any reasonable chance he'd win his primary, either. 
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 18:22
|
|
|
There's a negative infinity chance Trump wins. RIP Intrade.
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 18:25
|
|
|
I think people underestimate trump for the same reason people underestimated GW Bush- people are embarrassed to admit they voted for him so the polls skew against him. I think it would be a true perversion of democracy if he wins, but I don't think it would be the end of the world- just an embarrassment and a further confirmation of the decline of the USA.
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 18:30
|
|
|
greasyhands posted:I think people underestimate trump for the same reason people underestimated GW Bush- people are embarrassed to admit they voted for him so the polls skew against him. I think it would be a true perversion of democracy if he wins, but I don't think it would be the end of the world- just an embarrassment and a further confirmation of the decline of the USA. I feel people forget those other two branches of government when talking about Bernie or Trump's ridiculous ideas. 90% of the poo poo either of them are proposing would never actually get through congress or the judiciary. quote:B) It's donald trump, and that means somehow he got elected, which means the entire country is perma-hosed, time to pack up your connestoga wagon and move to Canada, pilgrim
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 19:01
|
|
|
greasyhands posted:Now is not the time for risk in energy, the time was prior to the 100%+ rally (300%+ in a lot of cases) in most of these medium/small names. Getting in now you're just asking to be kicked in the nuts when when the post-oil rally gloom sets in. I'm excited for next week. I'm away from my desk today, but it sounds like poo poo's snapping.
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 19:22
|
|
|
Trades_I_wish_I_made.jpg
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 19:29
|
|
|
Christobevii3 posted:You do lower cash bleed idling boats but they are also salt water boats. You have to still run the bileage pump, replace the seals, repaint, etc. I can't imagine idling 22 of the 26 boats completely is that cost effective. With that glut of boats too the top end boats will be charging a much lower margin. I don't for see deepwater work out of fourchon returning until 2018 at this rate. The 2016 year is basically gone now if work hasn't started up yet, 2017 looks to be just as bad and until the majors have a full year of positive cash flow and stability they won't commit to anything in the gulf. So optimistic outcome is 2018 you see revenue rates 50% below the peak in 2014/2015 and realistically 2019 before any return. as far as edison chouest, scale doesn't necessarily mean that they are in a better financial position. they could be more or less leveraged than their competitors...we don't know because they're private. they also have much more exposure to boat construction and shipyards, two lines of business that will be absolutely obliterated in a market that is depressed for a couple of years. in terms of ships that compete against them, edison chouest is about double the size of hornbeck -- 12% of the total worldwide market as opposed to Hornbeck and Tidewater at 5% and 6% respectively. just in a general sense, unless offshore drilling is going to disappear, i wanted to buy a company that is not going to go bankrupt in a bad market and will survive to the other side with the potential for large profits. as an example, HOS says in its low market case (80% utilization, compared to their 17-year avg utilization of 86%), they'd earn $5 per share in EPS. Giving them a conservative multiplier, you're at $35 per share in a normalized low-case market. that is a huge potential return, and a scenario that seems likely to occur at some future date. But yes, maybe it takes them until 2019 for the market to stabilize and for them to get to $5 in EPS. My point is that they have strength in their balance sheet to be able to weather a depressed market. Companies like Gulfmark & Tidewater are much less prepared for the storm. Do I like sitting around waiting? Nope. Do I mind doing it? Not really. Arkane fucked around with this message at 21:20 on May 13, 2016 |
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 21:17
|
|
|
Buy and store a shitload of commodity ammuniton, you'll be selling into a ban panic or bartering in a lunar hellscape either way. At the peak of the Barackalypse even .22 was selling out as soon as it hit the shelf.
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2016 21:23
|
|
|
greasyhands posted:
I was just thinking this. Kohls (KSS) seems really undervalued, too. You jumping in soon or waiting a while longer?
|
|
#
?
May 14, 2016 01:59
|
|
|
How is Kohls undervalued — its real estate, like people said about Macys? Seems that every quarter retailers miss earnings because they say the weather was too hot or too cold for clothes. Short now, buy later.
|
|
#
?
May 14, 2016 05:42
|
|
|
shame on an IGA posted:Buy and store a shitload of commodity ammuniton, you'll be selling into a ban panic or bartering in a lunar hellscape either way. At the peak of the Barackalypse even .22 was selling out as soon as it hit the shelf. .22 is still selling out as soon as it hits the shelf.
|
|
#
?
May 14, 2016 07:06
|
|
|
Who has the balls to gamble on UWTI for the incoming Venezuelan collapse? I'm considering buying 2k worth of shares.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2016 07:11
|
|
|
Applesmack posted:Who has the balls to gamble on UWTI for the incoming Venezuelan collapse? I'm considering buying 2k worth of shares. glhf, post your trades. Like no one else sees that coming but you.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2016 15:37
|
|
|
If you have that much to throw on bizarre leveraged commodity ETFs, why aren't you trading crude oil futures like a normal person? There's tax benefits even.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2016 16:53
|
|
|
quote:BARCELONA, Venezuela — By morning, three newborns were already dead. 
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2016 17:14
|
|
|
Triglav posted:If you have that much to throw on bizarre leveraged commodity ETFs, why aren't you trading crude oil futures like a normal person? There's tax benefits even. To be honest I'm not risk averse, but even I am not 100% certain on going balls deep on a 3x ETF. If a Venezuelan collapse happens though it is a good bet that oil prices will skyrocket soon. Venezuela exports ~1.9 million barrels of oil: http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/171.htm Global oil production seems to be about 96 million barrels: https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm Global demand for oil is actually approaching 96 million barrels: https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/ If even 1/3 to 1/2 of Venezuelan production falls then there should be more demand for oil than supply. But I'm curious, what oil futures are you investing in? Applesmack fucked around with this message at 17:22 on May 15, 2016 |
|
#
?
May 15, 2016 17:19
|
|
|
You're assuming that Venezuela's government and their oil production are tightly coupled. My impression is that their oil production is the absolute last thing to go down and will likely not be stopped in any meaningful way regardless of how hosed up the general situation is.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2016 17:22
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 23:10 |
|
|
DNK posted:You're assuming that Venezuela's government and their oil production are tightly coupled. Historically when oil nations have collapsed did their production slow/halt?
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2016 17:23
|
|