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EngineerSean posted:He's beating Nate Silver, that's for sure. Not really. But he's not doing any worse, either. Lol.
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May 16, 2016 19:06
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Vox Nihili posted:Not really. But he's not doing any worse, either. Lol. I looked it up and I guess he's really not doing better 
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May 16, 2016 19:20
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Someone posted a fake Monmouth poll in the Kentucky dem thread and that pushed Bernie NO down about 10 cents.
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May 16, 2016 20:46
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So it looks like the KY and OR are waited with bated breath for Tyler Pedigo to tell them who is going to win. Hoping it's all good news for Bernie and I can buy some cheap as gently caress Hillary shares.
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May 17, 2016 00:23
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Sanders No in Oregon is down to like 17c for those willing to take on a bit of a risk.
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May 17, 2016 01:04
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Tyler pedigo's prediction/model has Bernie winning 69/29
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May 17, 2016 01:07
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nachos posted:Tyler pedigo's prediction/model has Bernie winning 69/29 It would be his first closed primary win. The social media stats Pedigo cites to don't even sound that favorable. Dude must be mixing apples and oranges somewhere.
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May 17, 2016 01:08
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Vox Nihili posted:It would be his first closed primary win. Hahaha, holy hell, +40. Like, I would not be surprised if Bernie pulls out his first closed primary win, but, whoof. That is nuts.
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May 17, 2016 01:21
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That guy is just posing as a stats wizard to pump his own shares, right?
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May 17, 2016 02:03
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Origami Dali posted:That guy is just posing as a stats wizard to pump his own shares, right? He seems to actually think he's the next Nate Silver.
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May 17, 2016 02:07
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Today's the day. If Bernie wins Oregon I'll be left with 40 bucks on PI, down from 600 initially. If he loses I'm BACK IN THE GAME!!!!!!!!!!! Although if KY causes a surge of Oregon shares I might just sell enough to break even no matter what.
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May 17, 2016 13:26
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a cop posted:Today's the day. If Bernie wins Oregon I'll be left with 40 bucks on PI, down from 600 initially. If he loses I'm BACK IN THE GAME!!!!!!!!!!!
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May 17, 2016 15:58
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Note there's only one election forecaster you can trust!!!
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May 17, 2016 16:00
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a cop posted:Today's the day. If Bernie wins Oregon I'll be left with 40 bucks on PI, down from 600 initially. If he loses I'm BACK IN THE GAME!!!!!!!!!!! I'm in big on Bernie Death as well today. Hoping for a solid loss in Kentucky will move the Oregon market.
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May 17, 2016 16:57
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I live in Kentucky (not long enough to vote, unfortunately), and I drove by a few polling places. They look desolate. I'd say the Bern is no longer being felt.
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May 17, 2016 16:59
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Kentucky HillYes/BernNo flying upward now.
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May 17, 2016 17:25
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Meanwhile in Oregon Hillary is down to .17
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May 17, 2016 18:10
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nachos posted:Meanwhile in Oregon Hillary is down to .17 Yep, looks like it's gonna drop all day. FiveThirtyEight went and said "Nate’s demographic model gives Sanders an edge of about 15 percentage points." So the fish are all swimming that direction. Hopefully Kentucky will come back strong for Hillary and bump things up this evening.
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May 17, 2016 18:19
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Oregon MOV market is surging as well. If you think Oregon will be close it's a good buy at 34c.
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May 17, 2016 18:46
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I've only got 25 shares in on Clinton in Oregon, so I'm just happy to see how that plays out. Kentucky has me a little nervous though. These turnout reports look apocalyptic for Bernie, but who knows.
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May 17, 2016 18:47
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I haven't seen the turnout numbers, how bad we looking at?
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May 17, 2016 18:54
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Tatum Girlparts posted:I haven't seen the turnout numbers, how bad we looking at? SoS says they're expecting 20%, no long lines anywhere, CNN keeps reporting polling stations are pretty desolate. Local news isn't even talking about it too much partly I think because the republicans had to move their caucus up to let Rand Paul run for Senate, and no one really cares if the republicans aren't on the ballot.
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May 17, 2016 19:09
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Vox Nihili posted:Oregon MOV market is surging as well. If you think Oregon will be close it's a good buy at 34c. Yea, sold all my Hillary YES/Bernie NO in the main primary at a loss so I could buy the MOV NO at the dipped price.
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May 17, 2016 19:14
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Two different models dueling in the Oregon market comments right now. We've got Tyler Pedigo with Bernie at +40 and then Benchmark Politics which says it'll be a close Sanders win but won't be shocked if Hillary wins.
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May 17, 2016 20:10
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When do the "polls" close in Oregon, 8pm Pacific?
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May 17, 2016 20:29
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BERNOUT YES just jumped from 10 cents to 22.
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May 17, 2016 21:19
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Gyges posted:When do the "polls" close in Oregon, 8pm Pacific? Yep, 8pm.
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May 17, 2016 21:57
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Vox Nihili posted:Yep, 8pm.
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May 17, 2016 22:44
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There is a 5 cent difference right now between Hillary YES (.25) and Bernie NO (.20) in Oregon
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May 17, 2016 23:06
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If anyone here's bold we could try to aggressively buy hillary YES/bernie NO after KY gets called for Hillary, and ride em as high as possible...
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May 17, 2016 23:12
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a cop posted:If anyone here's bold we could try to aggressively buy hillary YES/bernie NO after KY gets called for Hillary, and ride em as high as possible... If my cashout check had arrived earlier I'd be down but I already have $550 tied up in the VP & distant primary markets. Need to play it cool for a bit - slowly working my way up from the hole though!
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May 17, 2016 23:22
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Good job! And it's alright. I mean, it's not like I'd have the pull to heavily contribute to the weight we'd need to cause a panic- I'd only be able to throw in like $100. But like someone else was saying, it only takes a few people with moderate funds to buy everything up on the ground floor, at which point tons of others get in to try to ride the wave.
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May 17, 2016 23:23
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Just watch the polls and throw all your extra cash into Hillary NO in the OR primary market as soon as KY's been called for Clinton. Bernie shares are already dropping like a rock for OR. Maybe a little sooner since I don't know when OR results are supposed to come in but yeah it's free money; he's not going to lose OR. EDIT: Hahaha Sanders dropout market is going nuts: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/2585/Will-Bernie-Sanders-drop-out-on-or-before-May-31#data The Joe Man has issued a correction as of 23:28 on May 17, 2016 |
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May 17, 2016 23:25
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I don't think it's free money at all, given his under performance in KY and the OR polls. The early vote #s are also bad for him- much higher turnout in pro-hillary areas.
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May 17, 2016 23:27
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KY is flipping the gently caress out
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May 17, 2016 23:54
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double post
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May 17, 2016 23:54
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Making hundos on the KY flips.
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May 17, 2016 23:54
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nachos posted:KY is flipping the gently caress out Seriously what the gently caress is happening
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May 17, 2016 23:54
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Huge difference between decision desk and cnn/nytimes results. DD has Hilary up (w/ !13% in), while others have Bernie up with 7% in
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May 17, 2016 23:59
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Vox Nihili posted:Making hundos on the KY flips. Yeah this was huge, but I'm done with it for now. That's enough heart attacks for me in one night.
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May 18, 2016 00:11
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