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And it looks like we were right about that! KY might be open until the end of the month. 
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May 18, 2016 03:27
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Sold at 95 and feel great. Lost a few pennies but I'd rather have some liquidity for the Oregon markets.
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May 18, 2016 03:32
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I think this is the first time I've ever seen Hillary YES consistently hovering higher than Bernie NO Did KY break them?
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May 18, 2016 03:34
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Necc0 posted:I think this is the first time I've ever seen Hillary YES consistently hovering higher than Bernie NO No, if Bernie NO were actually below Hillary YES then they would be broken. They're still feeling the Bern. The fact that they're within a couple cents of each other could indicate a reduce in Bern though.
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May 18, 2016 03:38
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Necc0 posted:I think this is the first time I've ever seen Hillary YES consistently hovering higher than Bernie NO The Hillary market has been very liquid, but the Bernie market has stubbornly refused to move much. Sitting on 3689 Bern No shares here and can't wait to see them start moving. Sold my Hill yes awhile back.
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May 18, 2016 03:45
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Reminder to come freak out with us in IRC
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May 18, 2016 04:03
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The Oregon market is full of bernbots acting like they pulled off a major coup. It's kind of precious.
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May 18, 2016 04:12
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Glad I grabbed an extra few hundred shares at 2c because why not
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May 18, 2016 04:19
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Oops, forgot to be at my computer at 8pm. Oh well, at least I'm doubling up on the MOV market.
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May 18, 2016 04:26
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nachos posted:Glad I grabbed an extra few hundred shares at 2c because why not You're throwing money away 
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May 18, 2016 04:27
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I managed to bail on OR before the market fully deflated. Overall significantly up tonight due to the insane KY volatility plus me fat fingering a massive Bernie NO purchase by mistake
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May 18, 2016 04:28
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Necc0 posted:You're throwing money away I flipped enough at around 8c to break even! (on that penny trading, this was a bloodbath overall)
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May 18, 2016 04:28
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Sold out of OR MOV NO at $.83, feelin' fine.
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May 18, 2016 04:32
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Vox Nihili posted:Oops, forgot to be at my computer at 8pm. Oh well, at least I'm doubling up on the MOV market. Better to not have been there during the first moments of the MOV. There was an AP typo that caused all the news sites using their data to say it was a 17 point spread. That was fixed, but in the moments of confusion it was rough, especially if you're trying to win by playing faster than anyone else.
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May 18, 2016 04:33
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Bernie supporters are so eager to put money on the Sanders train that as soon as he was in the lead in Oregon, Clinton was sub-5 cents. He's lost Kentucky but is still floating around 6 to 7. It's really kind of amazing.
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May 18, 2016 04:37
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Necc0 posted:Reminder to come freak out with us in IRC seriously, it's good fun. RIP a bunch of us, but at leas some made good money on MoV rip cres
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May 18, 2016 04:38
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So who's ready for the drop-off box MOV swing???
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May 18, 2016 04:44
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So, I was hoping for a huge win tonight. But poo poo happened, and I ended up +50 overall for the evening. So I'm....still in the game? Kinda? I have like $150 left in my PI wallet after starting with $600. Need to claw and scrape my way back, that's for sure.
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May 18, 2016 04:49
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a cop posted:So, I was hoping for a huge win tonight. But poo poo happened, and I ended up +50 overall for the evening. So I'm....still in the game? Kinda? I have like $150 left in my PI wallet after starting with $600. Need to claw and scrape my way back, that's for sure. Hope you didn't dump early in KY...
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May 18, 2016 04:52
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Vox Nihili posted:Hope you didn't dump early in KY... Nope. Missed KY entirely. Barely saved myself by buying up a poo poo ton of cheap MOV NO Oregons and selling them at 90c. These trades barely offset my huge Hill YES Oregon shares.
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May 18, 2016 04:55
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a cop posted:Nope. Missed KY entirely. Barely saved myself by buying up a poo poo ton of cheap MOV NO Oregons and selling them at 90c. These trades barely offset my huge Hill YES Oregon shares. Yeah, same on Oregon. Though I would have been fine if I had been paying the usual amount of attention. Instead I started arguing with my girlfriend about some stupid poo poo and missed my window by about 15 minutes, hahaha. Oh well!
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May 18, 2016 04:58
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Vox Nihili posted:Yeah, same on Oregon. Though I would have been fine if I had been paying the usual amount of attention. Instead I started arguing with my girlfriend about some stupid poo poo and missed my window by about 15 minutes, hahaha. Nah Oregon wasn't at all like most primaries. The big moments came in three huge dumps that you had to be lucky to catch at the right time. Plus in the beginning all sorts of numbers were being thrown around and a lot of people got confused. There was maybe one swing and it lasted a minute before deflating. Wasn't even a good swing
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May 18, 2016 05:06
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You can make a quick 10% by buying B5 NO in the Trump/Clinton poll. She's currently at +5.7, so it would take apocalyptic overnight poll numbers to sink that in 47 hours. Though don't bet on polls.
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May 18, 2016 05:06
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My entire post-Biden career has been steadily bleeding money trying to take advantage of berniebots underpricing Hillary. Looks like I'm the fish.
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May 18, 2016 05:08
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Necc0 posted:Nah Oregon wasn't at all like most primaries. The big moments came in three huge dumps that you had to be lucky to catch at the right time. Plus in the beginning all sorts of numbers were being thrown around and a lot of people got confused. Mostly I needed to be there to sell off my huge pile of shares before they became worthless.
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May 18, 2016 05:09
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why isn't oregon MOV going to 95+? ppl in the comments are talking about "early votes" but as far as I can tell the results are almost all in in every county - you can compare Democratic ballots received (as of yesterday I think) here: http://sos.oregon.gov/voting/Documents/P16-Daily-Ballot-Returns.pdf with vote totals here: http://oregonvotes.gov/results/2016P/345596126.html so, for example: Mulnomah: 118K vs 105K votes Clackamas: 40K vs 42K votes Lane: 52K vs 54K votes Washington: 53K vs 53K votes Marion: 26K vs 23K votes so yeah, some of these counties have sub 10% left, but for the most part, this is already done, right?
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May 18, 2016 05:17
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thethreeman posted:why isn't oregon MOV going to 95+? There are a ton of pumpers in the comments trying to say the margin is gonna increase enough resolve Yes, and since the count is so slow people will just react to about any damned thing.
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May 18, 2016 05:23
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thethreeman posted:why isn't oregon MOV going to 95+? Like 1/3 of the ballots were dropped off on the last day in 2008.
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May 18, 2016 05:27
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e_angst posted:There are a ton of pumpers in the comments trying to say the margin is gonna increase enough resolve Yes, and since the count is so slow people will just react to about any damned thing. wish I had more cash to buy in the 70s... CNN shows "estimated % in" in all of these counties being pretty low - Lane at 67%, Marion at 69% - but (if I remember from past primaries) CNN's estimates are based on previous election turnouts, not the actual number of ballots received from the SOS page edit: ^^^ k, that makes sense, thanks. I'll go look up the 2008 numbers but I still have trouble imagining this is going to close thethreeman has issued a correction as of 05:34 on May 18, 2016 |
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May 18, 2016 05:29
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FLIP HAPPENING
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May 18, 2016 06:04
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It appears that percentages for Clinton and Sanders in the CNN and NYTimes results ignore the votes for the non-Clinton/Sanders candidates. DecisionDesk has that at 1.7% of the vote. Not a lot, but enough to compress Sanders lead over Clinton by ~1-2%
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May 18, 2016 06:09
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Honestly, if you didn't go for Bernie YES on Oregon, you probably should take a step back and stop using PredictIt, because you either have no idea what the political landscape in America is like or you suck at predicting. How some people thought Hillary winning by 15 based on one poll being legit is beyond me. There's really no better state for Bernie than Oregon, besides Vermont.
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May 18, 2016 06:27
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Well I managed to flip some MOV Yes from 40c to 44c, good loving god do these ducks count slowly. I think it's not actually going to make the MOV, sadly, so I might just go No in the end.
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May 18, 2016 06:56
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Vox Nihili posted:FLIP HAPPENING lol just checked back on predictit, definitely glad I didn't buy any more NOs. Vox, you are working for every single penny in that comments section
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May 18, 2016 06:57
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Vox Nihili posted:Well I managed to flip some MOV Yes from 40c to 44c, good loving god do these ducks count slowly. I think it's not actually going to make the MOV, sadly, so I might just go No in the end. Yeah. Unless Portland is a huge spring for Bern - and it might! - I don't see it. Might be close, tho.
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May 18, 2016 06:59
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thethreeman posted:lol just checked back on predictit, definitely glad I didn't buy any more NOs. Vox, you are working for every single penny in that comments section Lol, it's miserable!!!
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May 18, 2016 06:59
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Vox Nihili posted:FLIP HAPPENING FLIP HAPPENED (gently caress)
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May 18, 2016 07:14
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No for 22c is a ridiculously good deal. I bought too high. gently caress me!!!
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May 18, 2016 07:24
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Vox Nihili posted:No for 22c is a ridiculously good deal. I bought too high. gently caress me!!! I bought in at 57 when it dipped then held steady. Then the whole world was shot to hell and oops hey it flipped. 
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May 18, 2016 12:58
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C7ty1 posted:I bought in at 57 when it dipped then held steady. Then the whole world was shot to hell and oops hey it flipped. drat. Looks like the MOV might actually tip. Deschutes County flipped from a Clinton win to a Sanders win, and some other county-level results are gonna put it over the line. I'm selling at a giant loss. Go long, $650...
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May 18, 2016 13:27
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