Auspol May - Crisis on Infinite Australias - The Something Awful Forums

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open24hours: Jan 7, 2001

Greens should make any support conditional on ending off-shore processing this time.

# ? May 20, 2016 04:25

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# ? Jun 1, 2024 00:23

Anidav: Feb 25, 2010; ahhh fuck its the rats again

I find it strange too
Even if the ALP and greens seats combined are one short of forming government. They would just team up with Wilkie to form minority?

# ? May 20, 2016 04:26

WhiskeyWhiskers: Oct 14, 2013; "هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)

All wage labour is exploitative. hth.

But in RND's case there should probably be a requirement that jobs can't be contingent on accepting that type of agreement.

# ? May 20, 2016 04:36

StudlyCaps: Oct 4, 2012

So I'm a little confused, I thought that as long as neither party gets a majority in the lower house then they have to deal with the minor parties to form government so as long as the Greens never form government with the LNP then it didn't matter if they steal some ALP seats, as long as the Libs don't get them.

If that's true then are the ALP are just being pissy because people don't see them as the only left wing party in the village any more? Is that about right?

# ? May 20, 2016 04:42

open24hours: Jan 7, 2001

They don't have to do a deal. There could be another election.

A credible third party is a threat to the whole system. At the moment you just sort of hang around until the other party fucks up enough to get voted out and you're back in government. With a third party you can't rely on that happening.

# ? May 20, 2016 04:46

Negligent: Aug 20, 2013; Its just lovely here this time of year.

open24hours posted:

Greens should make any support conditional on ending off-shore processing this time.

if Labor declined and it went to a fresh election the Greens would get annihilated

offshore processing is only tenable because it is politically popular

running against it as single issue is suicide

# ? May 20, 2016 05:04

open24hours: Jan 7, 2001

If I wanted a party guided by pragmatism I'd just vote Labor.

# ? May 20, 2016 05:09

Anidav: Feb 25, 2010; ahhh fuck its the rats again

The ALP doesn't have a large enough warchest to take it to an election and given how close this one is, I doubt we'd want something horrible like Prime Minister Morrison swooping in from all the chaos.

# ? May 20, 2016 05:11

Snod.: Oct 3, 2014

We're all doomed

# ? May 20, 2016 05:12

CATTASTIC: Mar 31, 2010; ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You mean World Fukt

# ? May 20, 2016 05:18

Freudian Slip: Mar 10, 2007; "I'm an archivist. I'm archiving."

V for Vegas posted:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/gray/

A Note on Margins

While Grayndler is regularly mentioned as a key target for the Greens, the party finished third in 2013 so the seat's margin is measured as a traditional two-party contested. In 2010 the Greens finished second, and with the Liberal Party having recommended preferences for the Greens, Labor won Grayndler with a margin of 4.2% versus the Greens. If the Liberal to Labor preference flow seen in Melbourne at the 2013 election is used, then the 2010 estimated Labor margin would have been 13.9% versus the Greens.

Re-estimating the 2013 Grayndler result post redistribution using Liberal preferences to the Greens from 2010, the Labor margin for Grayndler versus the Greens would be 5.8%, but the seat would be much safer if the Liberals recommend preferences for Labor. The Greens' best chance for winning Grayndler will probably come when Albanese eventually retires.

Cheers for this!

The 2013 election result which was a poor result for the greens - but I think the amount of publicity that Jim Casey is getting will actually make a difference. If the Libs do preference the Greens I would say that the final result will be much closer than 5.8%.

I would love to hear QMs views on this

# ? May 20, 2016 05:44

Anidav: Feb 25, 2010; ahhh fuck its the rats again

I think it would be pretty funny of the Libs to be all #SaveoutALbo then proceed to preference the Greens.

Would be some double backstab fuckery.

# ? May 20, 2016 05:48

Freudian Slip: Mar 10, 2007; "I'm an archivist. I'm archiving."

Also forgot that there is real hot anger in the inner west about WestConnex. When Albo was minister for infrastructure he committed money to the project. Its hard for him to distance himself from it now.

# ? May 20, 2016 05:50

Granite Octopus: Jun 24, 2008

From the Arsetrailian

# ? May 20, 2016 06:00

Negligent: Aug 20, 2013; Its just lovely here this time of year.

Brand (WA) ALP 3.7 - ALP hold
Burt (WA) LIB 6.1 - LIB hold
Canning (WA) LIB 11.3 - LIB hold
Cowan (WA) LIB 4.5 - LIB hold
Curtin (WA) LIB 18.2 - LIB hold
Durack (WA) LIB 15.2 - LIB hold
Forrest (WA) LIB 13.8 - LIB hold
Fremantle (WA) ALP 5.4 - ALP hold
Hasluck (WA) LIB 6.0 - LIB hold
Moore (WA) LIB 12.4 - LIB hold
O'Connor (WA) LIB v NAT 0.9 - LIB hold
Pearce (WA) LIB 9.3 - LIB hold
Perth (WA) ALP 2.2 - LIB gain
Stirling (WA) LIB 9.0 - LIB hold
Swan (WA) LIB 7.3 - LIB hold
Tangney (WA) LIB 13.0 - LIB hold

best case scenario for Labor is they hold the three seats they have out 16. Think they might even lose Perth. There are some latte sipper gentrified areas but those people have mortgages too and vote Liberal even if they pretend to care about Greens issues.

# ? May 20, 2016 06:05

WhiskeyWhiskers: Oct 14, 2013; "هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)

Negligent posted:

if Labor declined and it went to a fresh election the Greens would get annihilated

offshore processing is only tenable because it is politically popular

running against it as single issue is suicide

Except Labor couldn't decline it unless they were willing to both decline the support and vote down a no-confidence motion in the Libs.

And at that point Labor'd be just as decimated in the subsequent election.

# ? May 20, 2016 06:12

V for Vegas: Sep 1, 2004; THUNDERDOME LOSER

Freudian Slip posted:

Cheers for this!

The 2013 election result which was a poor result for the greens - but I think the amount of publicity that Jim Casey is getting will actually make a difference. If the Libs do preference the Greens I would say that the final result will be much closer than 5.8%.

I would love to hear QMs views on this

Freudian Slip posted:

Also forgot that there is real hot anger in the inner west about WestConnex. When Albo was minister for infrastructure he committed money to the project. Its hard for him to distance himself from it now.

2013 was also a bad year for Labor. I'd say there will be a moderate swing back to the ALP this election which will increase Albo's margin over 5.8%, even if the LNP preference the Greens. The Westconnex is a local issue, but I think people realise this is a State matter, not a Federal matter. Protests votes were already registered over this when Jenny Leong was voted in as the Greens member for Newtown. Together with Albo's personal profile (he has been hitting the hustings pretty hard - I've met him a couple times already in the last few weeks) I'm afraid asio won't make it over the line this year.

# ? May 20, 2016 06:20

Negligent: Aug 20, 2013; Its just lovely here this time of year.

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

Except Labor couldn't decline it unless they were willing to both decline the support and vote down a no-confidence motion in the Libs.

And at that point Labor'd be just as decimated in the subsequent election.

what

why would Labor decline to form minority government with the Greens and then support ("vote down motion of no confidence in") a Coalition minority government?

that is madness

# ? May 20, 2016 06:29

Negligent: Aug 20, 2013; Its just lovely here this time of year.

although as someone who dislikes the Greens it would be hilarious if the ALP agreed to support a Coalition minority government in matters of confidence and supply, effectively leaving the Greens to go gently caress themselves.

# ? May 20, 2016 06:31

Negligent: Aug 20, 2013; Its just lovely here this time of year.

http://www.dog-gif.info/ is v misleading

I am unlikely to enrol now

# ? May 20, 2016 06:34

You Am I: May 20, 2001; Me @ your poasting

Looks like the Liberals candidate for Fremantle, Sherry Sufi, has imploded big time.

# ? May 20, 2016 06:50

Negligent: Aug 20, 2013; Its just lovely here this time of year.

Liberals were never going to win Fremantle, it is filled with filthy lefties and returns naked ecomentalists at local and state level. The mayor is literally a professor of sustainability.

State party probably accepted the first guy with a half decent cv to run as a sacrificial lamb.

# ? May 20, 2016 06:54

NTRabbit: Aug 15, 2012; i wear this armour to protect myself from the histrionics of hysterical women

bitches

You Am I posted:

Looks like the Liberals candidate for Fremantle, Sherry Sufi, has imploded big time.

Well there's one WA seat the ALP are going to hold for sure

# ? May 20, 2016 06:54

NPR Journalizard: Feb 14, 2008

NTRabbit posted:

Well there's one WA seat the ALP are going to hold for sure

You mean with their candidate that just got disendorsed and hasnt been replaced yet?

# ? May 20, 2016 06:56

Cartoon: Jun 20, 2008; poop

Pefo looks on the bright side (sticking to the budget figures shouldn't surpise anyone given the budget was just a fortnight ago).

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-20/pefo-forecasts-unchanged-from-budget/7432388

# ? May 20, 2016 06:58

NTRabbit: Aug 15, 2012; i wear this armour to protect myself from the histrionics of hysterical women

bitches

Frogmanv2 posted:

You mean with their candidate that just got disendorsed and hasnt been replaced yet?

New suggestion, set it all on fire

I was assuming there isn't time for either party to enter new candidates

NTRabbit fucked around with this message at 07:04 on May 20, 2016

# ? May 20, 2016 07:01

Vahtooch: Sep 18, 2009; What is this [S T A N D] going to do? Once its crossed through the barrier, what's it going to do? When it comes in here, and reads my [P O S T S], what's it going to do to me?

Well this is interesting. Just got a thing in my facebook newsfeed saying the election was coming up and asking if I wanted to check if I was enrolled. Not like a sponsored post mind you, more like a "Hi Vahtooch, hope your evening is going well." or "Its Easter/soccer/a thing". I wonder if this'll lead to a pile more of the 18-20 year olds getting enrolled to vote and all that.

# ? May 20, 2016 07:24

Synthbuttrange: May 6, 2007

Scott Ludlam posted a cute dog gif on facebook that linked to an enrolment page. Goddamn clickbait!

Also:

quote:

Julie Bishop�s office has brushed aside concerns raised by Liberal National party supporters about a $300 a head fundraiser to be held in a Brisbane restaurant owned by a convicted heroin trafficker with longstanding family links to the underworld.

The foreign minister is billed as the special guest at the event next Tuesday at Mariosarti, owned by Daniel Milos, whose family history in the drug trade was widely reported when his brother Peter was murdered in 2014.

Party supporters contacted organisers this week to query about the venue for the women�s breakfast, which will raise $12,000 for four female LNP candidates running in Brisbane seats.

The organisers alerted officials at the LNP state headquarters, who spoke with Bishop�s office before deciding the event would go ahead as planned.

Guardian Australia understands the LNP was told that Milos � who was sentenced to nine years in jail in 2000 as the ringleader in his family�s $10,000 a week heroin trafficking business � no longer owned the restaurant. However, the party has been provided with documents showing he remains the owner.

Guardian Live election special event with Lenore Taylor and Katharine Murphy
Read more
The restaurant�s liquor licence is held by Milos�s company Mariosarti Pty Ltd, according to documents held by the state Office of Liquor and Gaming Regulation.

Milos is registered as a director, secretary and sole shareholder of Mariosarti Pty Ltd, according to documents held by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

It is understood Mariosarti was offered as a venue for the party function at no charge.

A man had been stabbed in the chest outside the restaurant last week.

# ? May 20, 2016 07:47

Negligent: Aug 20, 2013; Its just lovely here this time of year.

stupid racist media

nice dog whistle

ethnic = criminal

# ? May 20, 2016 07:50

SMILLENNIALSMILLEN: Jun 26, 2009

Granite Octopus posted:

From the Arsetrailian

Lmfao

# ? May 20, 2016 07:52

Synthbuttrange: May 6, 2007

Yeah those dont look like low numbers. Except for Surf Coast. :v:

# ? May 20, 2016 07:56

Negligent: Aug 20, 2013; Its just lovely here this time of year.

Malcolm promised me a tax cut on 1 July and now I'm not getting it until the stupid parliament says so :colbert:

# ? May 20, 2016 07:59

CrazyTolradi: Oct 2, 2011; It feels so good to be so bad.....at posting.

Negligent posted:

stupid racist media

nice dog whistle

ethnic = criminal

Yeah it's not like he was sentenced to nine years in jail or anything.

# ? May 20, 2016 08:10

Negligent: Aug 20, 2013; Its just lovely here this time of year.

if it was the Tele writing about a Greens event at a vegan fairtrade coffee bar owned by a transgender aboriginal person who had done time for assaulting police you wouldn't be able to type dog whistle fast enough

# ? May 20, 2016 08:16