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The Butcher
Apr 20, 2005

Well, at least we tried.
Nap Ghost

Cultural Imperial posted:

Give me more detail man

he said while masturbating furiously

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cowofwar
Jul 30, 2002

by Athanatos
Just make sure you aren't invested in like 40% Canadian equities at 2% MER or whatever the lovely Canadian advisors advise. Also outright own or rent and you'll be able to take advantage of any volatility.

pinarello dogman
Jun 17, 2013

Rime posted:

...
Dark: Climate change has the serious potential to wipe out Canadian food security entirely by rendering our major producing areas useless by about 2030. We will be hit late, so our resources will be stretched thin by pressure from nations already crumbling to these circumstances, such as Syria.
...

Well I don't know anything about the rest of it, but I can tell you with a reasonable deal of authority that this is bullshit.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Yeah from all my climate change knowledge there's a lot of countries that will have their agriculture absolutely hosed, but not the USA or Canada.

The Butcher
Apr 20, 2005

Well, at least we tried.
Nap Ghost

crbrsd posted:

Well I don't know anything about the rest of it, but I can tell you with a reasonable deal of authority that this is bullshit.

Can you elaborate? As I understand it our main food producing zones are going to get too hot and dry, with the optimal climates moving northwards. We will start to move production with climatic shifts but there is obviously a pretty big lag time to get farms established, which will impact food production.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

crbrsd posted:

Well I don't know anything about the rest of it, but I can tell you with a reasonable deal of authority that this is bullshit.

I dunno, if it's true I feel a lot better about the fact that I've worked intensively on lung cancer, liver disease and skin cancer (unintentionally, unlike the others) all in one day!

cowofwar
Jul 30, 2002

by Athanatos
We have the great lakes and no other country upstream of our rivers who will build damns for their own irrigation and shut us out.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

The Butcher posted:

Can you elaborate? As I understand it our main food producing zones are going to get too hot and dry, with the optimal climates moving northwards. We will start to move production with climatic shifts but there is obviously a pretty big lag time to get farms established, which will impact food production.

We export on average around 25 million tonnes of wheat per year. Unless we go all Irish potato famine and keep exporting food while our population starves, I doubt that climate change will significantly impact production to the extent that we will be unable to feed ourselves.

The Butcher
Apr 20, 2005

Well, at least we tried.
Nap Ghost

sitchensis posted:

We export on average around 25 million tonnes of wheat per year. Unless we go all Irish potato famine and keep exporting food while our population starves, I doubt that climate change will significantly impact production to the extent that we will be unable to feed ourselves.

Ah cool.

Whelp sucks to be African.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

The Butcher posted:

Whelp sucks to be African.

Yeah, that's pretty much been the case for at least the past 3-5 centuries and it shows no sign of turning around at this point.

Though, to be fair, I saw something on the BBC that said Kigali had tap-cards on their buses, which is a technology that still baffles the great minds of Calgary Transit after numerous attempts, so maybe there's hope for Africa yet.

Tighclops
Jan 23, 2008

Unable to deal with it


Grimey Drawer

Cultural Imperial posted:

Give me more detail man

These are the perfect posts to read while listening to that retro 80's synth stuff

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
Crops are susceptible to more than just increased heat, you can grow stuff just about anywhere and adapt the strains. What you can't selectively breed is the ability to survive a drought in April followed by a heavy frost in July followed by a drought in August. Crops are incredibly fragile. How does increased irrigation capacity resolve this?

Climate change in the northern hemisphere means wild fluctuations from hot to cold without the ability to predict what is coming. This is what decimates agriculture, not sustained temperature growth.

But if you seriously think Canada will retain control of our water sovereignty when the US great plains go dustbowl 2.0? I can't really address naivety that immense.

The pressures facing Canada over the next decade are unprecedented and largely out of our ability to mitigate as a society. It was suggested to look at Russia circa 1995 and harden oneself for something not far off from that domestically. :shrug:

Rime fucked around with this message at 20:45 on May 20, 2016

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

Rime posted:

Crops are susceptible to more than just increased heat, you can grow stuff just about anywhere and adapt the strains. What you can't selectively breed is the ability to survive a drought in April followed by a heavy frost in July followed by a drought in August. Crops are incredibly fragile. How does increased irrigation capacity resolve this?

Climate change in the northern hemisphere means wild fluctuations from hot to cold without the ability to predict what is coming. This is what decimates agriculture, not sustained temperature growth.

But if you seriously think Canada will retain control of our water sovereignty when the US great plains go dustbowl 2.0? I can't really address naivety that immense.

You should read some of Paolo Bacigalupi's books.

Regarding water rights:
http://www.amazon.com/Water-Knife-Novel-Paolo-Bacigalupi/dp/1469298325

Regarding climate change:
https://www.amazon.com/Windup-Girl-Paolo-Bacigalupi-ebook/dp/B006TKP2B2?ie=UTF8&ref_=asap_bc

McGavin
Sep 18, 2012

The Butcher posted:

Can you elaborate? As I understand it our main food producing zones are going to get too hot and dry, with the optimal climates moving northwards. We will start to move production with climatic shifts but there is obviously a pretty big lag time to get farms established, which will impact food production.

We have a great deal of "northwards" for food production to move to and also enough potash, oil, and fresh water to keep industrialized farming going so the lag time won't be an issue. Canada and Russia will probably be the two countries least hosed by climate change. Potential resource wars are a different issue.

Ambrose Burnside
Aug 30, 2007

pensive

sitchensis posted:

We export on average around 25 million tonnes of wheat per year. Unless we go all Irish potato famine and keep exporting food while our population starves,

thanks to nafta this is a legally-enforceable outcome lol
peep the proportionality clause and whichever other bit it is that allows resources beyond oil to be designated as essential and brought into the proportionality clause's wheelhouse of "mandatory exports to the US with virtually no permitted decrease in export volume, forever"
"over a barrel: exiting from nafta's proportionality clause" looked at legal means for escaping the proportionality clause, including oil shortages at home causing hardship, and found none

Ambrose Burnside
Aug 30, 2007

pensive

McGavin posted:

We have a great deal of "northwards" for food production to move to and also enough potash, oil, and fresh water to keep industrialized farming going so the lag time won't be an issue. Canada and Russia will probably be the two countries least hosed by climate change.

our "northwards" is mostly canadian shield. russia will do great, we will not

ZShakespeare
Jul 20, 2003

The devil can cite Scripture for his purpose!
I have exactly the thing you need to face the future!

McGavin
Sep 18, 2012

Ambrose Burnside posted:

our "northwards" is mostly canadian shield. russia will do great, we will not

There's the Mackenzie watershed, but we're also currently growing mostly wheat because it's cold tolerant. We could easily switch to growing warmer crops like corn.

pinarello dogman
Jun 17, 2013

Rime posted:

Crops are susceptible to more than just increased heat, you can grow stuff just about anywhere and adapt the strains. What you can't selectively breed is the ability to survive a drought in April followed by a heavy frost in July followed by a drought in August. Crops are incredibly fragile. How does increased irrigation capacity resolve this?

Climate change in the northern hemisphere means wild fluctuations from hot to cold without the ability to predict what is coming. This is what decimates agriculture, not sustained temperature growth.

But if you seriously think Canada will retain control of our water sovereignty when the US great plains go dustbowl 2.0? I can't really address naivety that immense.

The pressures facing Canada over the next decade are unprecedented and largely out of our ability to mitigate as a society. It was suggested to look at Russia circa 1995 and harden oneself for something not far off from that domestically. :shrug:

My work deals with forests not farms, so I can't comment specifically on crops, but in general your time line is way, way, way, too aggressive. Even compared to worst case emission scenario models.

I've worked with people involved in research on drought tolerance and cold tolerance, no idea if they are mutually exclusive but they can be engineered. Species in NA are going to most susceptible to that sort of thing at the southern extent of their range where they are already stressed. In most cases that is unlikely to be Canada. A lot of plants are likely to be at the northern extent of their range, and will see better growing conditions before they see worse.

McGavin
Sep 18, 2012

crbrsd posted:

My work deals with forests not farms, so I can't comment specifically on crops, but in general your time line is way, way, way, too aggressive. Even compared to worst case emission scenario models.

I've worked with people involved in research on drought tolerance and cold tolerance, no idea if they are mutually exclusive but they can be engineered. Species in NA are going to most susceptible to that sort of thing at the southern extent of their range where they are already stressed. In most cases that is unlikely to be Canada. A lot of plants are likely to be at the northern extent of their range, and will see better growing conditions before they see worse.

I agree with all of this.

Drought and cold tolerance are not mutually exclusive and can definitely be introduced into crops by genetic engineering. If it comes down to eating GMOs or starving I'm pretty sure most people would rather not starve.

Marijuana Nihilist
Aug 27, 2015

by Smythe

Thanks for the book reccommendations, these look great

peter banana
Sep 2, 2008

Feminism is a socialist, anti-family, political movement that encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians.

EvilJoven posted:

Boomer consumerism is incredibly entrenched. Stuff really does tend to expand to take up all available space in that generation.

Hell, my parents probably own enough Christmas decorations to fill the space I use to store, well, almost everything I have.

Bringing this back from a couple pages: it's hard to tell if my mother has made the leap from Boomer consumerist to full on hoarder. Just her, my step-father and 9 year old brother in a 3000 sq ft house in suburban London, ON with 2 guest rooms. The last time we visited, the step-father was on a trip and my little brother "is going to sleep in my room and you can sleep in his! Just for fun!" Surprise! One of the guest rooms can't actually be used because her closet and shoes have completely taken over the room and bed and the other guest room is being used as an office because the actual office the house came with is overrun with stuff. Also she has 2 fridges and a chest freezer packed to the brim at all times. For 2 adults and a child.

It's really grossing me out at this point. I hate stuff.

blah_blah
Apr 15, 2006

Ambrose Burnside posted:

not from canadar, but it ought to be



SoFi is really selective with who they lend to and mostly only targets young professionals and people who went to top schools -- people who have high income potential in the future and low probability of default. So basically the opposite of the median Canadian.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Anyone else furiously masturbating over the thought of a fed rate hike?

Lacrosse
Jun 16, 2010

>:V


Cultural Imperial posted:

Anyone else furiously masturbating over the thought of a fed rate hike?

Oh yeah absolutely. I was giddy with glee when the first Fed hike happened (US here) because I knew it was the beginning of the end for the speculation bubble.

Not that I expect to afford property for another 10 years if ever even if poo poo tanks.

Myriarch
May 14, 2013

Cultural Imperial posted:

Anyone else furiously masturbating over the thought of a fed rate hike?

I can't. It's just too implausible for there to be a summer hike. It's looking like we'll have to wait all the way until December yet again.

ductonius
Apr 9, 2007
I heard there's a cream for that...
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a rate hike.


Edit: alternatively:

Do not go gentle into that rate hike,
Speculation should burn and rave at close of deal;
Rage, rage against the prospect of a hike.

Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



Table 1
The broad occupational categories (one-digit NOC) and the minor groups (three-digit NOC) within them with the highest number of job vacancies, Canada, fourth quarter 2015

code:
[b]Management occupations[/b]								21,200
Retail and wholesale trade managers						4,600
[b]Business, finance and administration occupations[/b] 				34,900
Auditors, accountants and investment professionals 				6,900
[b]Natural and applied sciences and related occupations[/b] 				22,500
Computer and information systems professionals 					9,600
[b]Health occupations[/b] 								23,700
Professional occupations in nursing 						8,000
[b]Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services[/b] 	17,600
Paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services	6,000
[b]Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport[/b] 				6,000
Athletes, coaches, referees and related occupations 				2,100
[b]Sales and service occupations[/b] 							142,600
Retail salespersons 								28,700
[b]Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations[/b] 		48,400
Motor vehicle and transit drivers 						12,300
[b]Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations[/b] 		9,900
Agriculture and horticulture workers 						5,600
[b]Occupations in manufacturing and utilities[/b] 					17,500
Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 				6,800
Everyone needs a STEM degree to qualify for the vast number of available retail jobs.

e: why can't I bold within the code tag??

Precambrian Video Games fucked around with this message at 08:44 on May 21, 2016

blah_blah
Apr 15, 2006

eXXon posted:

Everyone needs a STEM degree to qualify for the vast number of available retail jobs.

No, you need it to get out of the country.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Cultural Imperial posted:

Anyone else furiously masturbating over the thought of a fed rate hike?

I doubt they would do a rate hike, I think the current economic strategy is kick the can/hope things don't go to hell in the current administration;

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Yo check Google. Everyone's predicting a June hike

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

etalian posted:

I doubt they would do a rate hike, I think the current economic strategy is kick the can/hope things don't go to hell in the current administration;

I don't think the US Fed is taking any lessons from, noted idiot, BoC governor Poloz.

DariusLikewise
Oct 4, 2008

You wore that on Halloween?

Cultural Imperial posted:

Yo check Google. Everyone's predicting a June hike

I read 3rd quarter 2017 on google, also that monreau is super excited for the US to hike their rates in June.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

DariusLikewise posted:

I read 3rd quarter 2017 on google, also that monreau is super excited for the US to hike their rates in June.

Wrong central bank.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

ocrumsprug posted:

I don't think the US Fed is taking any lessons from, noted idiot, BoC governor Poloz.

Imma defend Poloz cuz you're all crazy if you think monetary policy should be used to control one sector of the economy. Blame the idiotic finmins of Tories and the grits for doing nothing to control the non existent lol housing bubble.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Also, this bubble was well underway before Poloz hit the scene. Not that Carney could have done anything better.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-anatomy-of-a-housing-bubble/

quote:

The anatomy of a housing bubble
Why do we repeatedly fall into the trap of inflating bubbles even though history shows they always end badly? Blame your brain.

Bob Thompson is a vice president and senior investment adviser at Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management in Vancouver.

Every 20 years or so, investor dementia sets in. Memories are wiped clean, allowing individuals to make the same mistakes over and over again. My 20 years in the investment world have been on the money management side, looking at global trends and markets, then investing money to profit from what I see. I mention this as a pre-emptive strike against those who read what I am going to say about Canadian real estate and respond with: “This guy has no authority to say anything about real estate, he’s never sold a house or developed anything.” I haven’t, but if there is anything I know, it is how markets function. It doesn’t matter if it is real estate markets, stock markets, commodity markets, or tulip markets (I’ll get to this later). They are all the same.

Why? Because markets are a reflection of people, and people are hard-wired to have emotional instincts that don’t change. They never have and they never will. Besides, being out of the real estate industry, I will argue, allows for a balanced view. Being outside the industry makes you see the forest, not the trees.

Let’s talk very little about real estate, and a lot about people’s behaviour and the anatomy of bubbles throughout history. The anatomy is shockingly the same no matter what asset we are talking about. It starts with something actually changing, a new development—in the technology bubble it was the rise of the Internet, and the “new economy.” In the early part of last century, it was the building out of railroads, resulting in skyrocketing real estate prices and ending in yet another crash of both Florida real estate and railroad stocks. For sure, there is a valid game changer that starts the boom, and lots of people question whether the valuations of whatever asset we happen to be discussing are overvalued. That’s called climbing “the wall of worry.” The underlying asset continues to go up however, seemingly proving the disbelievers wrong.

This has been real estate in Vancouver and for many parts of Canada for the last few years. Market bubbles don’t pop during this phase, when there are rational buyers and disbelievers. Bubbles burst, and people’s financial lives are destroyed at the end of the next phase: euphoria. During this phase, caution is thrown to the wind, people’s hard-wired desire to “not want to miss out” comes into full play: “I have to get in now, my next-door neighbour is making money and I am not.”

This panic buying can suck anyone into its vortex. During this phase, even the smartest believe that we are in a “new paradigm” and the old ways of valuing things are thrown out. Whatever the asset is, it becomes too expensive for the average investor, which is especially true of real estate.

A necessary step in the euphoria stage is the occurrence of “irregular” lending practices, irregular sales practices, and financial engineering. Through magic, the impossible is made possible. People who could never otherwise afford real estate suddenly can. As the panic to buy increases, it is a self -fulfilling positive feedback loop. Prices go up, people panic to buy more and they outbid each other in an orgy of greed. Amazingly even the experts begin to extrapolate out recent trends well into the future, like in 2008 when oil was $140, and many targets had it going to $200. That didn’t happen, it’s just how powerful a euphoria becomes.

Even so-called experts get sucked in during the euphoria stage when all the news is good. That is another absolutely necessary component of any bubble: there is no bad news. This is another pre-emptive strike at all the gurus saying that Vancouver and other overvalued markets will go up forever. It ain’t gonna happen. A few months ago Maclean’s put out a chart extrapolating 17 per cent annualized gains on Canadian real estate. It showed that exponential growth would put the average house price at $20 million in 2040. You laugh, but that’s what extrapolation does, and the author made a good point of the ridiculous nature of it.

The problem is that massive amounts of debt are created in any bubble, and at the end, the market gets crushed under its own weight. I’ll tell you a little story. During the 1960s, millions of people moved to California. My dad told me that a news anchor came on one day in 1970 and did a little back-of-the-envelope calculation. His numbers were correct and showed that if the same number of people continued to move to California as had in the previous 10 years, then everyone in the United States would live in California by the year 2000. They were making a joke, but you get the point.

Lately there have been some obscene projections for the value of real estate in Vancouver over the next decade, by very reputable sources. This again is a very necessary component of bubble formation. If you haven’t figured it out yet, I am simply giving you the anatomy of any bubble over the last few hundred years, then overlaying it on the current real estate market. You can draw your own conclusions.

My degree in university was in anatomy and physiology, and human physiology hasn’t changed for eons. Neither has the anatomy of a market bubble. To paraphrase Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, if one wants to be successful in the markets, then skip the degree in finance and instead pursue philosophy, psychology and history: philosophy teaches you how to think, psychology is the one thing you can count on to be irrational in the markets, and history doesn’t repeat itself but it rhymes.

On this theme, here’s some more bubble anatomy. Politicians are generally oblivious to the bubble as it is happening, or at least do very little to get in the way of it. After the fact, however, when the catastrophic collapse happens, another necessary component is the blame game. Nobody ever blames themselves for getting caught up in euphoria, which always seems so obvious after the fact. People look to blame someone else for the collapse, pressing politicians and regulators to make an example of someone and to regulate something. Some messenger gets shot, and everyone is happy, and the politicians get to be reactive and the saviours of future generations.

So let’s back up and ask, are there irregularities going on right now in the real estate market? Of course there are. Is there some form of fraudulent activities going on or at least a massaging of the truth? The answer is most likely—it is a necessary component of the bubble, an effect of the euphoria.

It is also a natural progression of the underlying asset, in this case real estate, which has become too expensive for the consumer to buy. In a competitive system, people will find creative ways to finance the boom. For it to continue, they must find ways to financially engineer it. All seems good during the boom times, then something, somewhere, comes out of left field, and the balloon gets pricked, never to reinflate in that manner again. Everything that seemed so sane, all of a sudden seems so totally insane. As Warren Buffett says: “You don’t know who’s swimming naked till the tide goes out.” For now, all is good in fairy-tale land, but this level of speculation has the ability to destroy the dreams of people for the next 20 years.

Vancouver real estate recently broke all records for volume. People can’t get enough. This is yet another necessary bubble component. Volumes are always highest at the top, never at the bottom. The panic to get in creates a gaping hole of demand in the future. For instance, let’s say over the next five years 100,000 people would normally buy real estate based on their family needs and other factors. The great euphoria and subsequent price rise, however, sucks that demand into this year, and it can be seen readily with today’s high volumes and skyrocketing prices. Who’s left to buy two years out? There has already been a massive flight of capital out of China of over $1 trillion. Will that continue endlessly? Of course not, the Chinese government will stop that at some point, leaving the locals of Vancouver and eastern Australian cities holding the bag.

Some readers who haven’t had the magical 20-year dementia will recall that during the tech bubble, the average NASDAQ share was held for a period of seven days, volumes were immense and speculation was rampant. The tech bubble was propagated on the same belief that drives any market bubble, the Greater Fool Theory. Speculators regularly convince themselves that there is always a greater fool who will come along to pay a higher price for their asset than they paid. It’s too much to get into here, but google “tulipmania” and see how that bubble formed in the 1600s. All I will say is that at the peak of that bubble, people found ways to profit from the time a tulip was bought and the time it was sold. Intermediaries flipped the tulip several times between the buyer and the seller, profiting each time. People think that the practice of “assignment” agreements in the Vancouver real estate market—whereby a newly purchased property is flipped to another buyer before the original sale even closes—is a new thing. It’s not. It happened in the tulip bubble more than 300 years ago, and it happens in every bubble. It must happen to keep the bubble growing bigger. It does tell us, though, that we are getting near the bursting. It’s a shame, because it’s not just Vancouver that will be impacted: real estate markets in many cities are red hot simply because of 240-year lows in interest rates. This type of thing ends badly.

When an asset is overly popular, it is most likely overvalued. You can’t find value in anything that is popular. However, you can almost always find value in things that make other people queasy. That’s why I have been buying gold stocks lately. By definition, nothing that is unpopular is in a bubble. That’s my next rule of investing: sell hubris and buy humiliation. This bubble cycle has only repeated itself 100 times or so in the last few hundred years, but I am sure “this time is different.” People have somehow got smarter.

If you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you.


all y'all supply siders are high a f

this bubble is just like all the other bubbles and any market that bubbles

Dreylad
Jun 19, 2001

McGavin posted:

There's the Mackenzie watershed, but we're also currently growing mostly wheat because it's cold tolerant. We could easily switch to growing warmer crops like corn.

I'm not sure the soil quality after decades of wheat growing would be able to support the shift to different crops, but I don't know that for a fact

Dreylad
Jun 19, 2001

peter banana posted:

Bringing this back from a couple pages: it's hard to tell if my mother has made the leap from Boomer consumerist to full on hoarder. Just her, my step-father and 9 year old brother in a 3000 sq ft house in suburban London, ON with 2 guest rooms. The last time we visited, the step-father was on a trip and my little brother "is going to sleep in my room and you can sleep in his! Just for fun!" Surprise! One of the guest rooms can't actually be used because her closet and shoes have completely taken over the room and bed and the other guest room is being used as an office because the actual office the house came with is overrun with stuff. Also she has 2 fridges and a chest freezer packed to the brim at all times. For 2 adults and a child.

It's really grossing me out at this point. I hate stuff.

My nana has the same issue with having tons of food even though most of it goes bad eventually. But she grew up in the Great Depression and endured the Blitz, so I figured it was just a natural outcome from those experiences but some times I'm not so sure.

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Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Cultural Imperial posted:

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-anatomy-of-a-housing-bubble/


all y'all supply siders are high a f

this bubble is just like all the other bubbles and any market that bubbles

You're free to believe that the lack of supply argument is bullshit, but why would you not still be in favour of it, as a mechanism to undermine the 'scarcity' of existing real estate?

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