Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

The Lord of Hats: Aug 22, 2010; Hello, yes! Is being very good day for posting, no?

McGavin posted:

People are shorting banks when they should be going long on Kraft Dinner.

This is dumb even by Motley Fool standards. I want to punch whoever wrote it. It wouldn't be a 'protracted slump' you dipshit it'd be a return to normal and aaargh.

I mean, it's not going to be exactly the same, because there are some different factors (to my knowledge, you guys don't have the same CDO tranch bullshit that we did), but you have to be delusional to think the banks aren't going to take a big hit from this.

# ? May 23, 2016 16:33

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 11:28

Wasting: Apr 25, 2013; The next to go

Mortgage lending is their biggest cash cow. If that dries up at all, it's going to look bad on paper and hurt profits, crash or not.

# ? May 23, 2016 16:59

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

National Bank is like 40% mortgages lol

# ? May 23, 2016 17:02

Subjunctive: Sep 12, 2006; ✨sparkle and shine✨

Yeah, my Canadian financial advisor said that people usually park money in bank shares for income, but investing in banks is basically investing in Canadian retail real estate, so maybe not right now...

# ? May 23, 2016 17:07

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

lol, and of course since Canada is bizarro-land, the TSX has been killing it over the past 3 months. Up 8%.

# ? May 23, 2016 17:25

Reince Penis: Nov 15, 2007; by R. Guyovich

Lexicon posted:

lol, and of course since Canada is bizarro-land, the TSX has been killing it over the past 3 months. Up 8%.

Stock exchanges have about as much to do with the economy as the bookie does with how fast the horse runs.

# ? May 23, 2016 18:17

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

quote:

Fears of a Canadian housing bubble and a U.S.-style housing meltdown continue to drive considerable short activity in Canada�s major banks. Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD)(NYSE:TD) is the most shorted bank on the TSX, while Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX:BNS)(NYSE:BNS) is the fourth most shorted. Then you have Royal Bank of Canada (TSX:RY)(NYSE:RY), which is the most shorted Canadian bank on the NYSE.

How are these investor wizards picking which bank to short? Darts on a dartboard? Are they picking TD because it's the biggest? It's also probably the most diversified and it's a top 10 bank in the USA (America's Most Convenient Bank�). I wouldn't be surprised if it's the least exposed bank.

A glance at Andy Yan's survey of west side homes reveals that 69% of the mortgages were covered by CIBC, HSBC and BMO. Probably better banks to short if you think there are any shenanigans with weak oversight of loans.

# ? May 23, 2016 18:59

Subjunctive: Sep 12, 2006; ✨sparkle and shine✨

Femtosecond posted:

How are these investor wizards picking which bank to short? Darts on a dartboard? Are they picking TD because it's the biggest? It's also probably the most diversified and it's a top 10 bank in the USA (America's Most Convenient Bank�). I wouldn't be surprised if it's the least exposed bank.

I thought TD in the US was a separate corporate entity not included in the assets of TDCT (and therefore not in the shares in question). Is that not the case?

# ? May 23, 2016 21:50

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

Subjunctive posted:

I thought TD in the US was a separate corporate entity not included in the assets of TDCT (and therefore not in the shares in question). Is that not the case?

Oh interesting I have no idea, I just assumed it was the same entity.

# ? May 23, 2016 22:31

Nocturtle: Mar 17, 2007

Many realtors can't handle a 15 year old anti-money laundering regulatory requirement:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/a-quarter-of-real-estate-firms-not-compliant-with-anti-money-laundering-rules/article30123991/

quote:

The federal anti-money laundering agency received 337 compliance reports from roughly 1,000 companies in the real estate sector it surveyed � including brokers, sales representatives and developers � between Jan. 1, 2013, and Feb. 8, 2016.
...
An analysis of the data contained in those reports found that roughly a quarter of the 337 respondents admitted they had not yet fully implemented a compliance regime, which has been required by federal anti-money laundering laws since 2001.

The realtor's whole role (aside from being a glorified salesperson) is to help clients navigate the complex legal and regulatory issues involved in selling/purchasing a house. Dealing with this kind of bureaucracy is exactly their job, but check the end of the article for the CRA spokesperson whining about the difficulty involved in keeping up with red-tape. However strict government oversight has ensured Canadian real-estate can't be used for money-laundering purposes, so this probably isn't a big deal.

# ? May 24, 2016 16:44

Risky Bisquick: Jan 18, 2008; PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.; Buglord

Cultural Imperial posted:

National Bank is like 40% mortgages lol

Are they even Basel 3 compliant? That 40% they are probably just as leveraged as the BC economy.

# ? May 24, 2016 17:26

cowofwar: Jul 30, 2002; by Athanatos

I'm sure the entire FIRE sector is rotten.

# ? May 24, 2016 17:28

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

My friend just bought a condo in Victoria, first person I know in town that's bought. It's in a pretty old wood frame building from the 70's that probably needs a lot of work. She was excited because they had the lowest strata fees she saw ($250). Overall for a pretty big 2 bedroom she's paying about $1200 a month, including strata. The unit itself is pretty ok, the previous condo flipper or what ever did the standard works on it. We're paying $1400 for a smaller 2 bedroom. My wife got a bit concerned if we were "doing the right thing" by renting and paying more. I explained that the low strata fees plus a very old run down building were a huge red flag and our friend could easily be hit with some 20-50k emergency assessment to fix the roof or foundation or who knows what any year now.

The unit was only 215k in a really nice area of town (new built one-bedrooms go for about 380k in the same block). I don't blame my friend for buying though, she can easily afford it and she just had to move 3 times in a year (evicted twice, moved out due to lovely conditions once). I can see the appeal of knowing you've finally got a place you won't be renovicted from in a few months or a landlord that just refuses to fix serious plumbing issues.

I didn't want to pry too much, but 215k for a large 2br in an expensive neighbourhood with $250 strata fees makes me think something is terribly wrong with the building.

# ? May 24, 2016 17:54

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Also, it's wood frame, so gently caress that.

# ? May 24, 2016 17:59

Seat Safety Switch: May 27, 2008; MY RELIGION IS THE SMALL BLOCK V8 AND COMMANDMENTS ONE THROUGH TEN ARE NEVER LIFT.; Pillbug

jm20 posted:

Are they even Basel 3 compliant? That 40% they are probably just as leveraged as the BC economy.

There's a pretty decent business in software that makes the leverage/stress testing report read whatever you want it to read.

Plus Basel III has a pretty low bar to pass. Any retail bank in Canada should be able to make the teensy amount of liquidity you have to have on hand from shares alone.

I think I read in this thread earlier that CIBC has moved from 50-50 corporate/retail loans to 30-70 in the last thirty years. That might have something to do with the low amount of innovation and new business creation in Canada, but I'm no expert.

Seat Safety Switch fucked around with this message at 18:09 on May 24, 2016

# ? May 24, 2016 18:07

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

jm20 posted:

Are they even Basel 3 compliant? That 40% they are probably just as leveraged as the BC economy.

I just did a bit of googling and I can't find where I originally read this statement. That said, I found a PWC report that said half of all banks' loan books are CMHC insured mortgages, so I am incorrect. But de facto risk free loans rite? Must be nice to be making that kind of scratch.

# ? May 24, 2016 18:33

Risky Bisquick: Jan 18, 2008; PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.; Buglord

Cultural Imperial posted:

I just did a bit of googling and I can't find where I originally read this statement. That said, I found a PWC report that said half of all banks' loan books are CMHC insured mortgages, so I am incorrect. But de facto risk free loans rite? Must be nice to be making that kind of scratch.

Join the darkside, become a third party lender

# ? May 24, 2016 18:34

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...rticle30123278/

quote:

Universities in Vancouver and Toronto are struggling to find ways to entice professors to move to cities known for eye-popping house prices and out-of-control bidding wars.

In Ontario, schools are looking for changes to provincial laws that would allow them to build affordable long-term housing for faculty. This month, planners and senior administrators from Toronto universities, McMaster in Hamilton, the University of Ottawa and others, met to discuss the challenges of recruiting new faculty in their housing markets. Young professors want to live close to their work, but many are worried their starting salaries make a downtown home unaffordable.

�For young faculty, they want to bike or walk to work, they don�t even want a 30-minute commute, they are looking for 10,� said Ravin Balakrishnan, the chair of U of T�s computer science department.

The faculty housing crisis is most acute at the University of British Columbia. A new 1,000-square-foot condo on campus sells for about $800,000, much less than the $1.8-million average price for a detached house, but still out of reach for many new professors.

Last year, UBC missed out on 18 hires who turned down job offers because of how unaffordable Vancouver has become, according to a survey of the university�s deans. For another 70 appointments, the housing issue was a key part of negotiations, the deans reported.

�The big question here is �How good does UBC want to be?�� said Christopher Rea, an associate professor of modern Chinese literature at UBC. Dr. Rea has been involved in years of discussion with the university on how to improve faculty housing options. �If someone is good enough to get a job offer from UBC, they can get a job offer from somewhere else,� he said.

Currently, UBC offers loan guarantees and a second mortgage program. Critics say the loans have been too small to make a substantial dent in Vancouver prices, and the current program is unfairly open only to faculty whose recruitment and retention is �of critical strategic importance.�

During the first two years of the mortgage loan program, 105 professors applied and 76 were approved, according to the university.

At the University of Toronto, Dr. Balakrishnan has been in a lot of negotiations with new hires over the past year � the department is halfway through hiring for 11 new tenure-track positions. So far, starting salaries in the department and consulting opportunities for those in the field mean that faculty have been able to keep up with this spring�s daunting prices. But the issue is increasingly coming up, he said.

Within two years, U of T and the other schools involved in the discussions hope to persuade Ontario�s provincial government to introduce and pass legislation that would enable postsecondary institutions to offer long-term ownership of homes to professors, while barring faculty from selling the properties to anyone but the school. Currently, the maximum number of years for such agreements is 21 years. The group is looking to extend that to 99 years.

�If we don�t do anything, our position is that it�s a risk to remaining competitive,� said Christine Burke, the director of campus and facilities planning at the University of Toronto. �We want to make sure that we are competitive with other premiere institutions that have instituted various home ownership programs � and to ensure that affordable housing options remain available to faculty for generations,� Ms. Burke said.

The model U of T is advocating has been used at Stanford, Princeton and UBC. It�s only one among several that universities worldwide are trying out to deal with a global crisis in housing affordability for those earning middle and even upper-middle class salaries.

From Sydney to Oxford, it�s not just retail workers, bus drivers and teachers who are priced out of living where they work, but also university professors and staff.

Jennifer Klenz, a UBC botany professor, says she is uncertain whether she will ever be able to buy in Vancouver.

Dr. Klenz became a permanent faculty member a few years ago, after a decade of teaching as a sessional instructor, leaving her with few savings. Now, in addition to rent on the West Point Grey apartment she shares with her five-year-old daughter, she pays almost $1,000 in monthly daycare fees.

�I�m in one of best places I could be in terms of my career, but I will end up being a renter, or maybe I will get together with a group of people and buy a vacation home,� she said.

Recently, she talked to her department about whether she was considered �critical,� and therefore eligible for the mortgage loan program. She was happy to discover she met the criteria, although she thinks it could be made clearer.

�There is at least a faint glimmer that I could buy into [an] on-campus housing option,� she said.

What many UBC professors would like to see is the university build and sell homes at-cost, a model that was successfully used at nearby Simon Fraser University for a project in 2007. UBC also completed a similar project a decade ago, but a plan to revive it was shelved last year.

Dr. Rea says that when he goes to conferences in Hong Kong or Taipei, he has seen ads for the units on campus that he and his colleagues can�t afford marketed to foreign buyers.

�Should UBC be leasing its land for a hundred years to the open market and mostly to the global rich?� he asks.

UBC plans to roll out a new faculty housing strategy this fall.

Making it easier for professors to live on campus is not just about affordability but also long-term urban living, schools say.

�We are thinking in an integrated fashion. Where do we go when we retire? Do we go live in a condo someplace, or does what we know about mental resiliency mean maintaining a life on campus or nearby?� said Scott Mabury, vice-president of operations at the University of Toronto, who is involved in the sector-wide discussions in Ontario. �It�s a lifelong life of the mind, that�s the attraction.�

maybe everyone just needs to adjust their expectations and consider that UBC and U of T should just make do with TAs teaching all classes for minimum wage

this is what happens when you don't have the moxy to pull yourself up by the bootstraps as a REALTOR(TM)

# ? May 24, 2016 18:51

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

UBC sucks anyway (and I'm a grad). They're far more interested in marketing themselves and selling condos than doing the hard work of running a university. Also, while the campus photographs well for the brochures, its location is inconvenient as hell, and the food and beering options are terrible, even with the latest revamp. Pick a better school.

# ? May 24, 2016 18:55

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Lexicon posted:

UBC sucks anyway (and I'm a grad). They're far more interested in marketing themselves and selling condos than doing the hard work of running a university. Also, while the campus photographs well for the brochures, its location is inconvenient as hell, and the food and beering options are terrible, even with the latest revamp. Pick a better school.

Every university in Canada is awful.

# ? May 24, 2016 18:58

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Lexicon posted:

UBC sucks anyway (and I'm a grad). They're far more interested in marketing themselves and selling condos than doing the hard work of running a university. Also, while the campus photographs well for the brochures, its location is inconvenient as hell, and the food and beering options are terrible, even with the latest revamp. Pick a better school.

I got mad respect from anyone who graduates from a stem program at ubc or sfu so check yo hate bro

# ? May 24, 2016 19:00

leftist heap: Feb 28, 2013; Fun Shoe

Baronjutter posted:

My friend just bought a condo in Victoria, first person I know in town that's bought. It's in a pretty old wood frame building from the 70's that probably needs a lot of work. She was excited because they had the lowest strata fees she saw ($250). Overall for a pretty big 2 bedroom she's paying about $1200 a month, including strata. The unit itself is pretty ok, the previous condo flipper or what ever did the standard works on it. We're paying $1400 for a smaller 2 bedroom. My wife got a bit concerned if we were "doing the right thing" by renting and paying more. I explained that the low strata fees plus a very old run down building were a huge red flag and our friend could easily be hit with some 20-50k emergency assessment to fix the roof or foundation or who knows what any year now.

The unit was only 215k in a really nice area of town (new built one-bedrooms go for about 380k in the same block). I don't blame my friend for buying though, she can easily afford it and she just had to move 3 times in a year (evicted twice, moved out due to lovely conditions once). I can see the appeal of knowing you've finally got a place you won't be renovicted from in a few months or a landlord that just refuses to fix serious plumbing issues.

I didn't want to pry too much, but 215k for a large 2br in an expensive neighbourhood with $250 strata fees makes me think something is terribly wrong with the building.

Yeah $250 would be a huge red flag for me.

# ? May 24, 2016 19:00

pinarello dogman: Jun 17, 2013

Cultural Imperial posted:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...rticle30123278/

"Dr. Klenz became a permanent faculty member a few years ago, after a decade of teaching as a sessional instructor, leaving her with few savings."

Ah yes, the illustrious career in science, earning basically minimum wage on short term contracts until age 40.

# ? May 24, 2016 19:01

MiddleOne: Feb 17, 2011

leftist heap posted:

Yeah $250 would be a huge red flag for me.

Haha yeah, have fun with those 100k renovation costs and the potential building bankruptcy in the future.

# ? May 24, 2016 19:04

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

crbrsd posted:

Ah yes, the illustrious career in science, earning basically minimum wage on short term contracts until age 40.

And right here you have stumbled upon the reason why technological innovation is dead in Vancouver.

Sorry bros but piling a bunch of manbunned dojo educated node.js jockeys isn't innovation. Solving problems which require decades of research is. And you're not going to get people in Vancouver doing that by living in dorm-style cohousing developments or microsuites.

# ? May 24, 2016 19:06

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Cultural Imperial posted:

I got mad respect from anyone who graduates from a stem program at ubc or sfu so check yo hate bro

I have a stem degree from UBC. It's served me well... but I still wouldn't recommend anyone go to UBC for either educational or lifestyle reasons. UT or McGill would be way better.

edit: new thread title? manbunned dojo educated node.js jockeys

# ? May 24, 2016 19:11

blah_blah: Apr 15, 2006

Lexicon posted:

UBC sucks anyway (and I'm a grad). They're far more interested in marketing themselves and selling condos than doing the hard work of running a university. Also, while the campus photographs well for the brochures, its location is inconvenient as hell, and the food and beering options are terrible, even with the latest revamp. Pick a better school.

UBC is probably the second best school in Canada behind Toronto. It has better faculty, research output, etc than McGill. That being said they have made some truly awful choices in the past few years, from Vantage College to firing Arvind Gupta.

# ? May 24, 2016 19:13

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Lexicon posted:

I have a stem degree from UBC. It's served me well... but I still wouldn't recommend anyone go to UBC for either educational or lifestyle reasons. UT or McGill would be way better.

edit: new thread title? manbunned dojo educated node.js jockeys

Stay the gently caress away from McGill, would be my advice. I wish I had!

They're still busy wanking themselves over research that people did their a century ago, as the continued mismanagement of funds at the provincial level slowly beggars them.

# ? May 24, 2016 19:16

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

blah_blah posted:

UBC is probably the second best school in Canada behind Toronto. It has better faculty, research output, etc than McGill. That being said they have made some truly awful choices in the past few years, from Vantage College to firing Arvind Gupta.

I don't disagree with any of this, but your first sentence damns with faint praise

Oh, and since you're the data science guy - what do you make of this? http://masterdatascience.science.ubc.ca

To me, that's UBC in a nutshell - putting out a laughable program to capitalize on a current trend that they can make a quick buck on, rather than doing the hard work to create a true centre for excellence for a field.

# ? May 24, 2016 19:19

pinarello dogman: Jun 17, 2013

Cultural Imperial posted:

And right here you have stumbled upon the reason why technological innovation is dead in Vancouver.

Sorry bros but piling a bunch of manbunned dojo educated node.js jockeys isn't innovation. Solving problems which require decades of research is. And you're not going to get people in Vancouver doing that by living in dorm-style cohousing developments or microsuites.

Postdoc purgatory is a worldwide problem, basically because it's cheaper to get graduate students to do the work for approximately free than it is to actually pay someone with more experience.

Though yeah, you do need hovels for your impoverished grad students to live in.

# ? May 24, 2016 19:20

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Anyone else remember when data science~ was still known as statistics?

# ? May 24, 2016 19:28

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Cultural Imperial posted:

Anyone else remember when data science~ was still known as statistics?

That didn't sound futuristic enough. Everything is better when you add more science.

# ? May 24, 2016 19:36

ZShakespeare: Jul 20, 2003; War gives the right to the conquerors to impose any condition they please upon the vanquished.

why yes I am a numberologist

# ? May 24, 2016 19:43

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

ZShakespeare posted:

why yes I am a numberologist

Uh excuse me I believe the preferred nomenclature is "numberology scientist."

# ? May 24, 2016 19:47

blah_blah: Apr 15, 2006

Lexicon posted:

Oh, and since you're the data science guy - what do you make of this? http://masterdatascience.science.ubc.ca

To me, that's UBC in a nutshell - putting out a laughable program to capitalize on a current trend that they can make a quick buck on, rather than doing the hard work to create a true centre for excellence for a field.

I've talked with Jenny Bryan and I like her. I'm pretty indifferent to this, but data science masters programs are everywhere right now, from places like Columbia and Berkeley, to places like UBC, to places that are ... well, much worse. The biggest issue here is that data science has (as job applicants) a huge supply of people from STEM Ph.Ds who have become disillusioned with the academic treadmill or similar. There are some pretty mediocre Ph.Ds out there, but they still tend to be noticeably better than people who emerge from cash-cow masters programs, because the only real qualification for those is that you are a pretty good student who is willing to pay $$$.

I don't think that data science makes sense as an academic discipline, so I'm not sure what a 'true center of excellence' might look like here -- I think most of the components of data science, from an academic perspective, are well-served by the original disciplines that they sprung out of -- stats, ML, distributed databases, etc, are all active areas of academic research in stats/CS respectively. UBC has certainly done 'centers of excellence' well in the past -- for example, just before the current boom in ML (and the subsequent hiring of almost all high-quality ML faculty by top tech companies), UBC had one of the best ML research groups in the world. It maintains one of the best probability theory research groups in the world as well.

Cultural Imperial posted:

Anyone else remember when data science~ was still known as statistics?

They are kind of different. Statisticians know a lot more theory than your typical data scientist. But most statisticans can't program very well, and a lot of the problems that data scientists work on are a lot less structured than classical statistics problems. Still, the title is hilariously overblown at times.

# ? May 24, 2016 19:48

yippee cahier: Mar 28, 2005

Baronjutter posted:

I didn't want to pry too much, but 215k for a large 2br in an expensive neighbourhood with $250 strata fees makes me think something is terribly wrong with the building.

What did the depreciation report say about future expenses? They should have been given a timeline of expenditures and a funding model that showed that $250 is far too low without relying on large special assessments for a building like that. Actual building engineers don't gently caress around and cash a cheque, like home inspectors do.

If they voted with a 3/4 majority to skip the depreciation report, that's an enormous red flag. If they ignored the fact that $250 won't pay for ongoing maintenance, that's a regular sized red flag.

# ? May 24, 2016 20:06

velvet milkman: Feb 13, 2012; by R. Guyovich

PT6A posted:

Every university in Canada is awful.

Waterloo graduates literally have alumni gatherings in SV, so they must be doing something right.

# ? May 24, 2016 20:08

Throatwarbler: Nov 17, 2008; by vyelkin

The word "crisis" has basically lost all meaning.

The fact that there exists in a city some real estate that is unaffordable to some employed white people = Congolese AIDS epidemic.

# ? May 24, 2016 20:11

Dreylad: Jun 19, 2001

Trees and Squids posted:

Waterloo graduates literally have alumni gatherings in SV, so they must be doing something right.

By all accounts it was the fact that they got their co-op program up and running well before anyone else.

# ? May 24, 2016 20:17

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 11:28

leftist heap: Feb 28, 2013; Fun Shoe

yippee cahier posted:

What did the depreciation report say about future expenses? They should have been given a timeline of expenditures and a funding model that showed that $250 is far too low without relying on large special assessments for a building like that. Actual building engineers don't gently caress around and cash a cheque, like home inspectors do.

If they voted with a 3/4 majority to skip the depreciation report, that's an enormous red flag. If they ignored the fact that $250 won't pay for ongoing maintenance, that's a regular sized red flag.

It's almost certainly both.

# ? May 24, 2016 20:18

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