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I always type the cost in first because I'm super scared that I will buy too high or sell too low accidentally.
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Jun 2, 2016 00:24
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Necc0 posted:What happened New NBC/WSJ/Marist College poll has Clinton only up by +2. It's caused the polling average on 538 and RCP to within 7.4 points, which for Bernouts basically means a Bernie lock. I thought the Hillary YES wasn't going to drop down to 70¢ again, but here we are.
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Jun 2, 2016 02:02
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REP.PREZPRTY16 dropped 5 cents today, and Trump President dropped 3. People in the comments are reacting but I don't see any news. Anyone know whats up?
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Jun 2, 2016 02:14
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watwat posted:REP.PREZPRTY16 dropped 5 cents today, and Trump President dropped 3. People in the comments are reacting but I don't see any news. Anyone know whats up? That could be a bit of dumping for liquidity, or it could be reactions to Trump U being a boiler room scam factory, with admissions from former employees adding their voices to the scammed marks.
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Jun 2, 2016 02:45
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Yeah I'm guessing it's the Trump U stuff. Plus people may be coming to terms with the actual situation on the ground with the low-enthusiasm Republican establishment / uphill battle for the electoral college / Libertarian Party surge / cool off from Trump's surge after being declared presumptive nominee.
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Jun 2, 2016 03:15
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Necc0 posted:Yeah I'm guessing it's the Trump U stuff. Plus people may be coming to terms with the actual situation on the ground with the low-enthusiasm Republican establishment / uphill battle for the electoral college / Libertarian Party surge / cool off from Trump's surge after being declared presumptive nominee. the quinn poll with clinton up 4 came out today I think? I don't watch those markets so no idea if they actually bounce on every slight outlier poll six months in advance 
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Jun 2, 2016 07:39
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Center for Politics has a prediction model that has Clinton winning in California by a mere 2 points. This is basically pushing the Clinton CA YES shares down into the high 60s. This is basically when I have to stop looking at that "Gain/Loss" field to keep from freaking out a little bit.
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Jun 2, 2016 13:24
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I hate that point. "I'm down how much??" when I know I'm probably OK, just price fluctuations. But then memories of goddamned Oregon hit...
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Jun 2, 2016 13:44
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If I add up my shares in Cali Dem Primary, Johnson Fundraising, and Bernie NO in Dem Nomination, this is over half my holdings at the moment. So every time I log in, my negative number is way different and I think "lol what happened now".
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Jun 2, 2016 14:40
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e_angst posted:Center for Politics has a prediction model that has Clinton winning in California by a mere 2 points. This is basically pushing the Clinton CA YES shares down into the high 60s. This is basically when I have to stop looking at that "Gain/Loss" field to keep from freaking out a little bit. Low 60s, now. I'm now maxed. Also, won again on the head-to-head polling market. Yeeee-haaaw
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Jun 2, 2016 16:09
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Vox Nihili posted:Low 60s, now. I'm now maxed. what is so appealing about the low 60s price for a toss-up race, i don't get it
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Jun 2, 2016 16:25
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Arkane posted:what is so appealing about the low 60s price for a toss-up race, i don't get it If they were exchanging poll leads it'd be a toss-up
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Jun 2, 2016 16:51
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Arkane posted:what is so appealing about the low 60s price for a toss-up race, i don't get it I'm of the opinion that it is not a tossup, especially considering demographics. That said, Bernie seems to win the Asian vote? It could be a ride!
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Jun 2, 2016 17:52
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You know what's next to California? Oregon!  Two polls have bernie within 2 points, but everything else has Clinton up 5+. Might be a contest? But probably not. Still have half a week to go.
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Jun 2, 2016 18:50
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OAquinas posted:You know what's next to California? Oregon! Oh lordy, Oregon . Trying not to let my nerves get to me on this.
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Jun 2, 2016 19:01
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Vox Nihili posted:I'm of the opinion that it is not a tossup, especially considering demographics. That said, Bernie seems to win the Asian vote? It could be a ride! Personally I'm eager to see if there's a sudden massive selloff after NJ wins it for her a couple hours before CA even closes.
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Jun 2, 2016 19:23
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Tatum Girlparts posted:Personally I'm eager to see if there's a sudden massive selloff after NJ wins it for her a couple hours before CA even closes. Fwiw Clinton reportedly has a big lead in mail voting in CA. That will be counted first and may swing the market early.
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Jun 2, 2016 19:25
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Vox Nihili posted:Fwiw Clinton reportedly has a big lead in mail voting in CA. That will be counted first and may swing the market early. Yea even the polls with her only up 2 had her with a huge lead in 'already voted'. poo poo's gonna be fun tuesday.
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Jun 2, 2016 19:32
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benchmark claims those polls routinely underrepresent latino populations. but you know, benchmark 538 has it at 94% clinton as well either way, early reports are going to come in heavy clinton, which is going to swing that market, prob in the 80s. from there...who knows. also, no exit polling abelwingnut has issued a correction as of 19:49 on Jun 2, 2016 |
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Jun 2, 2016 19:47
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Ryan made a statement saying that he'll vote for trump, which the market seems to think constitutes an endorsement. The rules are not clear. e: Also, I held my ryan endore YESs, but I got in above 50 which was crazy. Small gain, hooray. Trash Trick has issued a correction as of 20:17 on Jun 2, 2016 |
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Jun 2, 2016 20:12
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Nevermind, his people just clarified w/ a "feel free to call it an endorsement".
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Jun 2, 2016 20:22
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a cop posted:Nevermind, his people just clarified w/ a "feel free to call it an endorsement". Lol.
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Jun 2, 2016 20:27
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Am I wrong in thinking that just buying yes for Clinton and buying no for Bernie and Biden will lead to pretty easy money come Tuesday night? https://www.predictit.org/Market/1232/Who-will-win-the-2016-Democratic-presidential-nomination
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Jun 2, 2016 20:33
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thegoonofaudio posted:Am I wrong in thinking that just buying yes for Clinton and buying no for Bernie and Biden will lead to pretty easy money come Tuesday night? Buying Clinton Dnom has been free money since early 2015. e: I don't see how anyone doesn't think the only way Clinton doesn't get it is if she drops out because of scandal, so imo there wouldn't be any change in response to election results. Shear Modulus has issued a correction as of 20:58 on Jun 2, 2016 |
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Jun 2, 2016 20:51
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Shear Modulus posted:Buying Clinton Dnom has been free money since early 2015. Free money, but slow money. No fun waiting until late July to cash out.
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Jun 2, 2016 21:29
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Good news for that goon that got torched by the fakeout Ryan endorsement: He just actually did! ..ah, beaten.
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Jun 2, 2016 21:38
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OAquinas posted:Good news for that goon that got torched by the fakeout Ryan endorsement: He just actually did! Market is panicking about the endorsement for whatever reason, made some money flipping No from 3c. Psycho-gambling.
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Jun 2, 2016 21:44
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CA.MOV 3 pts market just opened 
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Jun 2, 2016 21:46
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Also, new market: MOV California >3% Edit: VV Bernouts having their last hurrah. 2 polls came out with bernie trailing by MOE, which is the best he's done in Cali ever. So Clinton is less of a sure thing if you believe hard enough. OAquinas has issued a correction as of 21:52 on Jun 2, 2016 |
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Jun 2, 2016 21:46
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Is there a good reason that Clinton YES for the CA primary is in the 60s right now?
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Jun 2, 2016 21:49
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Nirvikalpa posted:Is there a good reason that Clinton YES for the CA primary is in the 60s right now? She hasn't lost a single poll and the demographics are in her favor. Seems fair-ish. (I would argue something more like 70-30, but this is Predictit we're talking about here.) e: Sorry if you meant that you think it should be a larger spread.
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Jun 2, 2016 21:51
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field and marist polls have it close
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Jun 2, 2016 21:52
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Nirvikalpa posted:Is there a good reason that Clinton YES for the CA primary is in the 60s right now? Same as before. Polls are moving this from a landslide to a narrow win.
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Jun 2, 2016 21:52
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OAquinas posted:Also, new market: MOV California >3% To be clear, Clinton in CA really isn't a sure thing. But it's probably 80% likely or better.
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Jun 2, 2016 22:03
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What about New Jersey? Does Bernie have any chance there? Tempted to go all in on Clinton YES.
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Jun 2, 2016 22:22
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FourLeaf posted:What about New Jersey? Does Bernie have any chance there? Tempted to go all in on Clinton YES. The predictIt MOV market for NJ is 10%, and they've been ridiculously on the nose with setting those. Not that it should mean anything, but...yeah, Clinton has that locked up tighter than Bill's black book.
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Jun 2, 2016 22:25
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FourLeaf posted:What about New Jersey? Does Bernie have any chance there? Tempted to go all in on Clinton YES. NJ is certain enough that Bernie supporters are preemptively complaining to the FEC (FCC?) about the medias coverage of it swaying CA.
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Jun 2, 2016 22:31
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I see. Well now I'm wondering why it's at 93 and not 98.
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Jun 2, 2016 22:32
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The outcome is pre-ordained. MOV market is at 78c yes, but a fair number of us got torched badly by the Oregon MOV market. It's one of those things that are either in the bag or the cause of your nail tech narrowing her eyes at you and shaking her head.
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Jun 2, 2016 22:36
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lol @ hillary.nom and dem.brokered being only $.03 apart
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Jun 2, 2016 23:28
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