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El Hefe
Oct 31, 2006

You coulda had a V8/
Instead of a tre-eight slug to yo' cranium/
I got six and I'm aimin' 'em/
Will I bust or keep you guessin'

Wikkheiser posted:

A Venezuelan friend who visited the U.S. was blown away by Golden Corral.

Golden Corral.

My aunt's husband used to laugh at me because I was impressed by everything, but I didn't give a poo poo I just found everything impressive, even the flags, holy poo poo you have some big rear end American flags in dealerships mostly.

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Kavak
Aug 23, 2009


Munin posted:

Conversely a sound appreciation for the likes of Pinochet, Franco, Aliyev and the like and how you can do business with these types is part and parcel of the conservative political scene which has rather more influence than the twitterati.

I would also seriously contest that neo-Nazis are currently universally excluded from mainstream society given the success of parties which were founded by Nazis and or are generally far right in several countries.

Yeah I was thinking more of America and its dogwhistling, Europe loves the far-right.

Crowsbeak
Oct 9, 2012

by Azathoth
Lipstick Apathy

Wikkheiser posted:

A Venezuelan friend who visited the U.S. was blown away by Golden Corral.

Golden Corral.

Well at least they're not getting wowed by Mcdonalds like Brazillians are.

El Hefe
Oct 31, 2006

You coulda had a V8/
Instead of a tre-eight slug to yo' cranium/
I got six and I'm aimin' 'em/
Will I bust or keep you guessin'

Crowsbeak posted:

Well at least they're not getting wowed by Mcdonalds like Brazillians are.

Mcdonalds here don't even sell French fries anymore lol

Only yuca sticks

fnox
May 19, 2013



Wikkheiser posted:

A Venezuelan friend who visited the U.S. was blown away by Golden Corral.

Golden Corral.

We see TGI Fridays as like the pinnacle of restaurants where you can get the real American food and drinks, and that is so prohibitively expensive you can only go eat there in very special situations.

Chili's is so exclusive there's only one in the country and I'm not even sure that it's still open.

Ironically enough, there were once THOUSANDS of sushi places in the country, those only became expensive recently.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
So what you're all saying is that you hope America invades and installs affordable TGI Friday's and Chili's everywhere.

I knew it! Imperalists!

J'accuuuuuse!

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
There was another looting spree today, this time in a town called San Juan de los Morros in Yaracuy state. The media is saying that panic spread through the town when the local CLAP (the government food-distribution people) showed up to some stores to take food for "distribution" later on.

Anyway, this is what resulted:

https://twitter.com/ReporteYa/status/740257501510262784

A wider angle of the looting:

https://twitter.com/prospericarlos/status/740204699979239425

Munin posted:

I don't want widespread violence or a civil war but man it is sad to see how people are currently unwilling (if you talk about the senior politicians) or unable to put more pressure on these fuckups running the country into the ground.

Yup. People showed up, National Police fired tear gas, some people got hurt, people left.

It's really difficult to start armchair quarterbacking because we're not there on the streets suffering through that, but it's frustrating.

fnox posted:

Ironically enough, there were once THOUSANDS of sushi places in the country, those only became expensive recently.

I took my cousin to the little sushi place down the street when he was visiting in the fall and he was shocked by how fresh the salmon once because "it doesn't have any brown spots on it".

Bates
Jun 15, 2006
You know the revolution has truly failed when people measure the health of their nation by the American fast food index.

MothraAttack
Apr 28, 2008
AFP citing opposition says recall first step has been green lit?

fnox
May 19, 2013



Anos posted:

You know the revolution has truly failed when people measure the health of their nation by the American fast food index.

I once measured inflation by using a banner hanging from a sleazy hotel called the Aladdin that you could see from the highway. They updated their room prices monthly and reflected these changes in their banner, which matched exactly with the inflation rate (The real inflation figure isn't available to the public).

Nowadays, I use the price of food as it fluctuates biweekly.

MothraAttack posted:

AFP citing opposition says recall first step has been green lit?

There was a meeting but it was with Luis Emilio Rondon, the only member of the CNE that isn't a government lackey, the opposition often use him to show that they DO manage to communicate with the CNE even if the guy isn't the one who calls the shots. Tibisay Lucena was absent, so the meeting might as well have never happened.

This "first step" isn't actually the real first step either. The first step is the recollection of the signatures of 20% of all registered voters, the second is the referendum itself. This whole deal about collecting 1% of the signatures is a fluke and isn't actually backed up by any law but the loving opposition rolled with it.

fnox fucked around with this message at 23:16 on Jun 7, 2016

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
Venezuela: Measuring inflation by using a banner hanging from a sleazy hotel called the Aladdin

Thread title? Mods?

Labradoodle
Nov 24, 2011

Crax daubentoni

MothraAttack posted:

AFP citing opposition says recall first step has been green lit?

Apparently yes, although the electoral council seems to have discarded over a third of the 2 million signatures that were delivered. Now 200,000 people have to go validate their signatures and once that's done, the opposition must collect 4 million more signatures to activate the referendum per se.

To be clear, they were going to 'approve' the signatures sooner or later, the play seems to be to delay the recall referendum all the way until January 2017 after which it won't matter anymore if Maduro gets the boot.

Munin
Nov 14, 2004


Kavak posted:

Yeah I was thinking more of America and its dogwhistling, Europe loves the far-right.

Well, you might get your own populist strongman which always had such a great track record in the rest of the Americas. :v: At least the US' institutions should be strong enough for a President not to be able to go totally hog wild on their own unlike in some other countries. I don't think Trump will become President but stranger things have happened.

Chuck Boone posted:

It's really difficult to start armchair quarterbacking because we're not there on the streets suffering through that, but it's frustrating.

Yeah, definitely.

One thing that is worth pointing out is that despite the country generally going to the dogs the PSUV have actually done a pretty good job of keeping the command and control apparatus and their propaganda apparatus intact. Supplies might be running out, the economy collapsing but there is remarkably little dissent in the regime and apparently little direct weakness to exploit.They may be incompetent fuckwits in most respects but they certainly seem to be able to run the things they rely on to stay in power pretty well.

On that note, have we had any actual senior PSUV figures breaking ranks in the current crisis? Any signs of factions forming within the PSUV? Where might these faultlines in the regimes lie and what could stress them beyond breaking point? It surely can't be as united as all the news seems to make them out to be.

Munin fucked around with this message at 00:30 on Jun 8, 2016

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial

Munin posted:

On that note, have we had any actual senior PSUV figures breaking ranks in the current crisis? Any signs of factions forming within the PSUV? Where might these faultlines in the regimes lie and what could stress them beyond breaking point? It surely can't be as united as all the news seems to make them out to be.

It depends on how you define "the current crisis", but I there have been a couple of notable "defections" in the last year or so.

The biggest one is probably that of Miguel Rodriguez Torres, who was the Minister of the Interior, Justice and Peace until October of 2014. I think he floated around here and there in the government afterwards, but now he's out of the PSUV. He fought alongside Chavez during the 1992 coup and was in charge of the SEBIN (the secret police) at some point.

It's funny because he's going around saying things like, "there are 30 million of us, and you have to govern for all of us", which I think is a completely innocuous thing to say, but for the PSUV it's high treason. Every few weeks he goes on Twitter and says something like that, or "the solution is to build bridges" with the opposition, which again might as well be a signed resignation letter from the PSUV.

The only other big defection that I can think of is that of Franklin Nieves, who was one of two prosecutors in the Leopoldo Lopez trial. Shortly after the Lopez trial ended, Nieves disappeared for about four days and then re-appeared in the U.S. This was back in September/October. Since then, he's made a number of statements to the media, saying that the Lopez trial was 100% fabricated, that he received orders to falsify evidence to secure a conviction, etc.

As far as fault lines go, it's a bit of an open secret that PSUV VP Diosdado Cabello is a huge force inside the party, possibly bigger than Maduro himself. Cabello is also allegedly the head of a drug cartel called "Los Soles", and that it involves high-ranking members of the military. Aside from the Maduro and the Cabello factions, I've always heard that there is another faction headed by Tarek El Aissami, who is the governor of Aragua. I'm not sure what's going on inside the armed forces, but I'm sure there's people moving for power there as well.

If Maduro were to be removed from power via the recall referendum, I think that's when we'd be likely to see the different factions surface and start fighting. Right now, I think the PSUV is probably in panic mode because the whole house of cards is about to come crashing down and they obviously don't want that.

lothar_
Sep 11, 2001

Don't Date Robots!
I'm disappointed in SEBIN. Castro makes nice, opens up his ports to Carnival, and he's still got agents in the U.S. picking up numbers stations from DGI. Maduro and PSUV rant daily about el impero, and does SEBIN even have one measly numbers station aimed at Venezuelan agents? Nooooo. Thanks for limiting my listening options like you limit rations. Atención was only exciting the first fifteen-odd times I heard it.

lothar_ fucked around with this message at 03:42 on Jun 8, 2016

M. Discordia
Apr 30, 2003

by Smythe
I'll put 20% odds on this one: The U.S. is going to pull a Noriega and kidnap Venezuela's entire cabinet to stand trial for drug trafficking because our government truly does not care one way or the other what goes on in Venezuela. There is no CIA coup, conversely the level of interest among American officials in what any international body thinks about Venezuela's sovereignty is absolutely zero. Obama does not give one poo poo what anyone in Venezuela thinks of him, nor does Clinton (nor does Trump but if he knows where Venezuela is on a map I'd be surprised). That would be the only appropriate ending to this farce -- intervention for reasons that have nothing to do with anyone's ideological struggle.

Vlex
Aug 4, 2006
I'd rather be a climbing ape than a big titty angel.



M. Discordia posted:

I'll put 20% odds on this one: The U.S. is going to pull a Noriega and kidnap Venezuela's entire cabinet to stand trial for drug trafficking because our government truly does not care one way or the other what goes on in Venezuela. There is no CIA coup, conversely the level of interest among American officials in what any international body thinks about Venezuela's sovereignty is absolutely zero. Obama does not give one poo poo what anyone in Venezuela thinks of him, nor does Clinton (nor does Trump but if he knows where Venezuela is on a map I'd be surprised). That would be the only appropriate ending to this farce -- intervention for reasons that have nothing to do with anyone's ideological struggle.

I thought we moved past the Clancy-level masturbatory fantasies a few pages ago?

Celexi
Nov 25, 2006

Slava Ukraini!
Well at this point i think you can arrest the entire Venezuela's government for drug trafficking and there would be evidence for all of them

Celexi
Nov 25, 2006

Slava Ukraini!
Reading this thread made me hungry as hell. I'm so glad I am not in Venezuela

Labradoodle
Nov 24, 2011

Crax daubentoni

Celexi posted:

Reading this thread made me hungry as hell. I'm so glad I am not in Venezuela

Too soon, man.

On other news, the Electoral Council also announced that on top of starting the signature verification phase, they would also launch a parallel procedure for people to officially withdraw their support if they happened to sign during the first phase of the procedure. Now, this is obviously not contemplated anywhere in the rules that govern the recall referendum process, but that's never stopped them in the first place.

The key during this verification phase will be to prevent the government from annulling the recall process by making sure that the opposition still has at least 1% of voter's signatures in every single state (also an arbitrary rule made up by the electoral council). If I were to bet, I'd say that they slashed as many signatures as possible from small states where the opposition may not be as mobilized and they will simply set up verification posts in hard to reach locations to discourage people from going, as well as using the colectivos to intimidate them.

Another possible roadblock would be to claim that since the electoral council is a government body, they can only work on Mondays and Tuesdays, slowing down the process to a crawl. If I were them, I'd do all that poo poo at once as well as impose a low time limit for the verification phase in order to force the opposition to trip up.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial

Labradoodle posted:

The key during this verification phase will be to prevent the government from annulling the recall process by making sure that the opposition still has at least 1% of voter's signatures in every single state (also an arbitrary rule made up by the electoral council). If I were to bet, I'd say that they slashed as many signatures as possible from small states where the opposition may not be as mobilized and they will simply set up verification posts in hard to reach locations to discourage people from going, as well as using the colectivos to intimidate them.

I can't get over how insane this is. In other words:
  • The CNE made up the rule about requiring 1% of signatures per state. The rules say that the process requires 1% of signatures from among all registered voters.
  • The CNE made up a rule about being able to withdraw your signature at any time during the process, from the start until the final recall vote is counted. Does this mean that they will also allow people to sign in favour of the referendum, up to the day of the vote? (:ssh: of course not!).
  • This means that if, on the night of the recall referendum vote, 9 million people vote in favour of recalling Maduro, the CNE could invalidate the whole process because it turns out that the signatures in favour of the recall dipped to .9% in Delta Amacuro state.
There isn't a :psyduck: big enough to describe this.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
At a certain point people are going to go hungry and riot and it won't matter what the state of the recall process is. There is no grand plan or design, the PSUV is like Wile E. Coyote already falling off the cliff and trying to pretend he's still in that moment of being suspended in air. A complete and total abdication of the basic responsibilities of the state to its citizens.

fnox
May 19, 2013



I've heard a bunch of comparisons to the Caracazo recently. For those who know what that is, back then, there wasn't hunger, per se, not on the level that you will find today, food prices rose but nobody starved because of it, it also didn't happen because of an increase in gas prices, that's all bullshit. The Caracazo and every single thing that happened in that day was politically motivated by parties who were predecessors of Chavez and the PSUV, poo poo like Bandera Roja. No supermarkets were looted that day.

The current situation is simply nothing alike anything else Venezuela has witnessed. The government loves to claim that back in the day people ate dog food, but I just checked and I can't motherfucking afford the prices of dog food nowadays with my salary being like 5 times the minimum wage, so I don't know what the hell people are gonna eat now.

El Hefe
Oct 31, 2006

You coulda had a V8/
Instead of a tre-eight slug to yo' cranium/
I got six and I'm aimin' 'em/
Will I bust or keep you guessin'
There are now constant and daily lootings of supermarkets and delivery trucks all over the country, you don't see reports in any TV channel though you have to rely on social media and the internet in general, most people simply don't have money to buy food and now thanks to the government's insane policies they have to rely on those CLAP groups to find the regulated products they could buy before.

I guess the only reason there aren't riots on the streets is because people are too weak from hunger...

fnox
May 19, 2013



Honest workers at supermarkets are being imprisoned by the PSUV for not wanting to aid CLAPs. 5 were arrested this week, and it has gone entirely unreported by media. 11 Corpoelec workers have been arrested for dissenting as well.

Meanwhile, the opposition is nowhere closer to accomplishing the activation of the recall referendum. If they were serious about this poo poo they would have done primaries already.

Labradoodle
Nov 24, 2011

Crax daubentoni

fnox posted:

Honest workers at supermarkets are being imprisoned by the PSUV for not wanting to aid CLAPs. 5 were arrested this week, and it has gone entirely unreported by media. 11 Corpoelec workers have been arrested for dissenting as well.

Meanwhile, the opposition is nowhere closer to accomplishing the activation of the recall referendum. If they were serious about this poo poo they would have done primaries already.

Wouldn't primaries just give the CNE another excuse to delay the recall itself? I mean, I remember the CNE organized them the last time they were held in 2012. Dunno if that's part of the rules, but I don't see how they could pull off primaries with no machinery unless they went old school and worked outside of the system.

Besides, there's not much point to holding primaries. As much as I'd like to see it happen too, until Leopoldo is free, there's no one who matches Capriles' polling numbers even after all of his fuckups, and Leopoldo isn't going to be free until there's a change in government. The only way someone could beat Capriles would be after a campaign, for which there is no time.

Hugoon Chavez
Nov 4, 2011

THUNDERDOME LOSER
I'll feel dirty voting for Capriles, but at this point a Chigüire (capybara) would do a better job anyway, so I guess it's an improvement.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
On Sunday night about 500 people looted a food storage warehouse in a town called Brisas de Torbes in Tachira state. The authorities responded and in attempting to disperse the crowd they fired tear gas and rubber bullets, which is standard operating procedure.

A woman named Jenny Ortiz Gomez was hit directly in the "face and head" by rubber bullets and died as a result of her injuries the next day.

This is what the governor of Tachira state, Jose Vielma Mora, had to say about Jenny's killing:

quote:

Who could think to be in that area on a Sunday at 8:00 PM?

El Hefe posted:

There are now constant and daily lootings of supermarkets and delivery trucks all over the country, you don't see reports in any TV channel though you have to rely on social media and the internet in general, most people simply don't have money to buy food and now thanks to the government's insane policies they have to rely on those CLAP groups to find the regulated products they could buy before.

To give people an idea of what this looks like,
there were 81 looting/attempted looting incidents in Venezuela in May. That's roughly double the figure for April, and the highest monthly total so far this year.

Yesterday alone there were two food protests in Caracas, on in La California and another one in Los Cortijos. I don't believe those devolved into looting, but there is a lot of volatility in the streets right now, hence those figures.

Also, the Supreme Court issued a ruling yesterday banning the spread of images of lynching on social media, so think twice before you retweet.

Saladman
Jan 12, 2010
Tachira state eh? You know the riots there were instigated by Colombians crossing the border and stirring up trouble (and probably stealing food to cause the shortages, not that shortages exist, but if they did exist it's because of Colombians).

fnox
May 19, 2013



Labradoodle posted:

Wouldn't primaries just give the CNE another excuse to delay the recall itself? I mean, I remember the CNE organized them the last time they were held in 2012. Dunno if that's part of the rules, but I don't see how they could pull off primaries with no machinery unless they went old school and worked outside of the system.

Besides, there's not much point to holding primaries. As much as I'd like to see it happen too, until Leopoldo is free, there's no one who matches Capriles' polling numbers even after all of his fuckups, and Leopoldo isn't going to be free until there's a change in government. The only way someone could beat Capriles would be after a campaign, for which there is no time.

They could circumvent the CNE, I don't think you truly need their participation in party primaries by law. And, it's not about the results of the primaries, it's about demonstrating to the Venezuelan people that they are REALLY willing to go for it this year, which they haven't demonstrated at all. As for Leopoldo, there's no guarantee he'll be freed in time for the referendum.

The point is though, recent polls show that if the referendum were to be held today, the "yes" option would win with 80% of the votes with only 6% undecided. It's a done loving deal, it's what we call a tiro al piso. The MUD has already won but they don't act like it, and the government exploits that lack of determination.

EDIT: Jesus loving Christ.



The guy getting hit, that's Julio Borges, chief of the opposition's parliamentary bloc.

fnox fucked around with this message at 18:00 on Jun 9, 2016

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial

fnox posted:

EDIT: Jesus loving Christ.



The guy getting hit, that's Julio Borges, chief of the opposition's parliamentary bloc.

I just came here to post this!

A bit more context: a group of opposition deputies went to the CNE offices this morning to ask why they still haven't announced the dates for the next step of the recall process. The CNE is 40 days late in making the announcement, and they said that they would make the announcement on Tuesday, then yesterday, and then... nothing. Just silence.

The deputies showed up today and were at first denied access to the building by the National Bolivarian Police. Somehow they managed to get in, at which point they were pushed out of the building. Once on the streets, a colectivo (pro-government armed group) showed up and started beating the heck out of them:



Borges got hit with a club straight in the nose:



The National Guard/National Bolivarian Police just stood by and watched this go down, by the way.

Saladman posted:

Tachira state eh? You know the riots there were instigated by Colombians crossing the border and stirring up trouble (and probably stealing food to cause the shortages, not that shortages exist, but if they did exist it's because of Colombians).
This is virtually word-for-word the PSUV's argument.

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

Not the first time Borges takes a beating, either.

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/venezuela-black-and-blue

fnox
May 19, 2013



I have a theory. I think the opposition is awaiting for the real crisis to get underway before doing anything, let the whole thing explode in PSUV's hands and demonize them for years and years to come because of it, that's why they're not in that much of a hurry, they're waiting for poo poo to get really bad before doing anything significant.

Demiurge4
Aug 10, 2011

fnox posted:

I have a theory. I think the opposition is awaiting for the real crisis to get underway before doing anything, let the whole thing explode in PSUV's hands and demonize them for years and years to come because of it, that's why they're not in that much of a hurry, they're waiting for poo poo to get really bad before doing anything significant.

It's kind of politics 101. If you know that poo poo is about to hit the fan, if you are absolutely certain that it loving will, you don't want to be the one in charge when it does. It's lovely but they probably believe they have a better shot picking up the pieces than they have taking over the house of cards the day before it tumbles and have the PSUV pin it all on them.

fnox
May 19, 2013



Demiurge4 posted:

It's kind of politics 101. If you know that poo poo is about to hit the fan, if you are absolutely certain that it loving will, you don't want to be the one in charge when it does. It's lovely but they probably believe they have a better shot picking up the pieces than they have taking over the house of cards the day before it tumbles and have the PSUV pin it all on them.

That's bargaining on that people will have ANY respect for political parties at that point.

Labradoodle
Nov 24, 2011

Crax daubentoni

fnox posted:

I have a theory. I think the opposition is awaiting for the real crisis to get underway before doing anything, let the whole thing explode in PSUV's hands and demonize them for years and years to come because of it, that's why they're not in that much of a hurry, they're waiting for poo poo to get really bad before doing anything significant.

Half of me agrees with you because the 'official protests' that have been convened so far have been such obvious farces. On the other hand, and I hope this isn't the case, there might just be such a huge divide among the opposition that they're unwilling to act united when it comes to pressuring for the recall referendum.

I mean, I'm no fan of Capriles, but I have a hard time believing the guy is stupid enough to believe that his protests are achieving anything other than demoralizing opposition members, so what's the deal? Is he just trying to keep appearances up until the inevitable social explosion occurs?

There's no doubt in my mind that's where we're heading right now. There's no real leadership from either side and no end in sight to our current plight, so eventually protests will get violent enough to overthrow the government. Three months ago, I wouldn't have believed we'd be in our current situation. Three months more and we're going to have a lot of people starving and they won't give a gently caress about a recall referendum or CLAPS or whatever the gently caress they come up with next.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Labradoodle posted:

Half of me agrees with you because the 'official protests' that have been convened so far have been such obvious farces. On the other hand, and I hope this isn't the case, there might just be such a huge divide among the opposition that they're unwilling to act united when it comes to pressuring for the recall referendum.

I mean, I'm no fan of Capriles, but I have a hard time believing the guy is stupid enough to believe that his protests are achieving anything other than demoralizing opposition members, so what's the deal? Is he just trying to keep appearances up until the inevitable social explosion occurs?

There's no doubt in my mind that's where we're heading right now. There's no real leadership from either side and no end in sight to our current plight, so eventually protests will get violent enough to overthrow the government. Three months ago, I wouldn't have believed we'd be in our current situation. Three months more and we're going to have a lot of people starving and they won't give a gently caress about a recall referendum or CLAPS or whatever the gently caress they come up with next.

maybe he is just hoping the PSUV overplays its hand and does something irredeemable(closes polar, starts openly killing people, etc) and that starts nation wide protests and civil upheaval. my guess is they are waiting for the straw to break the camals back. but yeah your right, when people start starving in the streets and can no longer feed their children. the plebeians won't give two fucks about the PSUV bullshit high "chavist/bolivarian" ideals and will club any of those fuckers they can get their hands on.

Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 04:38 on Jun 10, 2016

hypnorotic
May 4, 2009
Can anyone explain to me why the PSUV is so committed to repaying foreign currency loans? Leftist governments across the planet believe that the massive debt they or the previous regime have accumulated is unjust. What does the PSUV really have to lose if they default on all the loans they owe to private Western creditors? They are basically administrating an austerity package through massive inflation destroying labor value and reducing imports causing lower living standards. I really don't understand the ideological underpinnings of their policies. At least Stalinism was internally consistent, Chavismo is a loving mess.

Eschers Basement
Sep 13, 2007

by exmarx

hypnorotic posted:

Can anyone explain to me why the PSUV is so committed to repaying foreign currency loans? Leftist governments across the planet believe that the massive debt they or the previous regime have accumulated is unjust. What does the PSUV really have to lose if they default on all the loans they owe to private Western creditors? They are basically administrating an austerity package through massive inflation destroying labor value and reducing imports causing lower living standards. I really don't understand the ideological underpinnings of their policies. At least Stalinism was internally consistent, Chavismo is a loving mess.

I think you have a lot of misunderstanding here.

First, I believe most of Venezuela's loans are from China, not "private Western creditors". And if they default on those loans, they run a huge risk of destroying any of their ability to either buy the goods they need or to sell the goods they have. Basically, if they default, they don't actually end up with more money to prevent starvation, because they go from having negative to having nothing, which still isn't something.

Second, you're assuming that the hyperinflation is coming from government printing of money like Weimar Germany or Zimbabwe, and it's not, it's because the same amount of money is chasing a smaller and smaller group of services as factories and plants shut down and imports cease.

I mean, I'm not an economist, but this is my understanding from reading the thread.

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Old James
Nov 20, 2003

Wait a sec. I don't know an Old James!

Eschers Basement posted:

I think you have a lot of misunderstanding here.

First, I believe most of Venezuela's loans are from China, not "private Western creditors". And if they default on those loans, they run a huge risk of destroying any of their ability to either buy the goods they need or to sell the goods they have. Basically, if they default, they don't actually end up with more money to prevent starvation, because they go from having negative to having nothing, which still isn't something.

Second, you're assuming that the hyperinflation is coming from government printing of money like Weimar Germany or Zimbabwe, and it's not, it's because the same amount of money is chasing a smaller and smaller group of services as factories and plants shut down and imports cease.

I mean, I'm not an economist, but this is my understanding from reading the thread.

Please humor my fake numbers in the scenario below....

Venezuela has very little domestic production and pretty much has to trade oil for all consumer and industrial goods. Five years ago oil was expensive and for every 5 barrels exported, Venezuela could import 1 car. Since then the price of oil has dropped so now it takes 50 barrels of oil to import that same car. So with the same amount of oil production the country is only able to import 1/10th the number of cars as it did 5 years ago. That scarcity is driving inflation, if you want/need a new car you are going to have to pay a premium to get one now. Add on to the impact of cheap oil the government's mishandling of the oil industry. They sacked the skilled labor that ran the drilling rigs, refineries, and operations and unsurprisingly production volumes plummeted.

So 5 years ago Venezuela produced 5,000,000 barrels of oil and imported 1,000,000 cars. Today they produce 1,000,000 barrels of oil and import 20,000 cars. So a car's price has gone up 50,000%

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