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Halloween Jack posted:In the same breath you're saying that Trump isn't seriously seeking the presidency because it's not in his best interests, and that he lives completely in the now. I don't believe for a minute that Trump's candidacy is purely a bid for attention. He wouldn't bow out. He just wouldn't strive to win. You know what I said about this campaign building his brand? Bowing out would mess with that, because it would be pre-conceding the whole election to Clinton before voting even happened (and that would be a clusterfuck) and also make him look like an airpuffed loser-cum-quitter with no guts. But by toning down the rhetoric, staying low in the media spotlight, and letting the enthusiasm burn down, he can maybe get away with "losing" the election while not getting too much mud on his suit. It's not fool-proof, of course, but it's a valid way of trying to not accomplish something. Halloween Jack posted:Trump is far past the point of no return with regard to being held responsible for his political impact. If he becomes president, he'll be held responsible for what will no doubt be a stupefying debacle of a presidency. If he loses to Hillary, he'll be held responsible for leading the party astray and likely being humiliated all the while. If he should end his campaign due to exhaustion and organizational breakdown before the convention, he'll be held responsible for leaving the party broken down on the side of the road. He's going to drive the campaign until the wheels fall off; hopefully it doesn't get him into the White House first. But this is all kind of what I'm saying? It doesn't matter how he leaves the Republican party, because furthering the Republican interests (those of both the mainstream and the Tea Party blocs) wasn't his goal. The ego rush and the building of his image was. I'm not saying that Trump is doing this to sell hot dogs or anything cynical as that. But being wealthy in business and reaching this level in something high-profile like a presidential run is a double ego massage. I suspect Trump knows that he's too "tacky" to actually be a President, and that the position would probably crush him if he had it, but being a viable candidate (especially when everyone seems to suggest he isn't) is probably hard to resist for what it says about him. It'll be filler in the books, it'll give him more weight and gravitas; not just "America's #1 businessman" but also "Presidential candidate". And lest people get hung up on Trump being self-aware of his tackiness, that's exactly the point of ego. The self-assurance, self-confidence and all that to be as tacky and loathsome as you want to be, because it's either in your body or you have enough "gently caress you" money to be. It ties in to that "admirable straightshooter / villain you love to hate dynamic" I mentioned above. Winning the presidency at this point doesn't serve his ego. Because then he is bound by formal rules, because then he is the target of people who will make it their goal to stymie him, and because then failure isn't forgiven and he'll be seen in the history books as "Donald Trump, 2016 - 2020, monumental fuckup". Imagine Obama in reverse, basically, except possibly more low-level and yet also more intense. So he isn't likely to bow out, but he's probably second-guessing wanting to actually win. I suppose people might say that Clinton is subject to the same stakes and ego pressures, but I would summarize the difference as Clinton viewing herself as a politician, while Trump views himself as a person. Clinton can separate herself from political failure, but for Trump, it's all part of his whole.
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Jun 11, 2016 02:17
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Great insights PJ I've really enjoyed the read. Question: I see a lot of similarities about the cult-type upbringings and people like the Duggers from "19 and Counting" fame. (Incredibly creepy) And mention of the "Quiver-Full" movement I've heard about as well. What do you think about these subjects if you're familiar with them at all?
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Jun 11, 2016 03:27
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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/opinion/the-unity-illusion.html David Brooks just wrote about Trump's narcissism. Phone posting so I'm not going to quote sections.
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Jun 12, 2016 03:14
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PJ you should tell David Brooks to stop plagiarizing your material.
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Jun 12, 2016 04:30
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I'm sorry that posters are associating you with David Brooks ITT Prester Jane. Being trans and having big mental illness problems are big enough things to deal with imo. You don't need this on top of it 
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Jun 12, 2016 04:39
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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-florida-shooting-nightclub-idUSKCN0YY08B There has been a shooting in a gay club in Florida and I immediately thought about thread's predictions on escalating violence. Could this be part of it?
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Jun 12, 2016 13:38
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Fish of hemp posted:http://www.reuters.com/article/us-florida-shooting-nightclub-idUSKCN0YY08B Quoting the linked article. quote:- A gunman shot dead about 20 people and injured 42 others in a crowded gay nightclub in Florida early on Sunday before being killed by police in what U.S. authorities described as a "domestic terrorism incident". While details are obviously still very sketchy and no details are available about the shooter at the motive yet, based on what's in this article I would say it does seem to be a strong candidate for what I've been talking about. I find it curious that officials are not hesitating to label this one an incident of domestic terrorism and yet at the same time we have absolutely no details about the shooter at present, not even so much a rumor that he's a Muslim. While I'm just making conjectures based off of the chaos that naturally occurs in the early hours of a situation like this, I do think that the available information indicates that this may have been a terror attack targeted specifically against gay people. This may have well been an event designed to cause as many casualties as possible, an event meant to intimidate LGBT people into going back into the closet. Again, this is purely conjecture at this point, and not even particularly good conjecture considering the scant information available. If this was some hypothetical white Christian cis male who committed this act then I suspect we will see something of a repeat with the Planned Parenthood situation where police did absolutely everything possible to avoid associating the shooter to the right wing in this country. We will have to wait for more details to emerge. If this was indeed a mass casualty terror attack targeting LGBT people with the intention to intimidate them, then the media is going to have one hell of a time trying to play their usual "truth is always in the middle" game. Also, the Progressive Movement in this country will absolutely lose its God drat mind and I don't even know what that's going to look like, but social media will probably be complete chaos for a couple weeks. Prester Jane fucked around with this message at 16:13 on Jun 12, 2016 |
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Jun 12, 2016 13:52
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Couldn't 'domestic terrorism' also refer to people like McVeigh? If it was directed at the LGBT community, then it would be such an act, regardless of the perpetrator's religious beliefs.
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Jun 12, 2016 15:56
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McVeigh was absolutely a radical right-winger. He was trying to live out the loving Turner Diaries. I believe PJ's point is that the media refuses to call right-wing terrorism what it is, while jumping to conclusions about Islamic terrorism with no evidence whatsoever.
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Jun 12, 2016 15:58
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Halloween Jack posted:McVeigh was absolutely a radical right-winger. He was trying to live out the loving Turner Diaries. I believe PJ's point is that the media refuses to call right-wing terrorism what it is, while jumping to conclusions about Islamic terrorism with no evidence whatsoever. It's this, yeah. So the details emerging looks like it was potentially a radical Muslim targeting the LGBT community in the deadliest mass shooting in American history. This is going to dominate the conversation in this country for the next few weeks, it's the perfect intersection of racism, religious terrorism, LGBT persecution, and gun control. And at this moment Trump needs something to rile people up about to get the attention off of his socially unacceptable racism and back onto his socially acceptable racism. I think there is a very good chance that he will try to let himself and his campaign into this incident somehow once he sees how much attention the American public will be giving it. I'm thinking i just might want to suspend my social media accounts for like the next 3 weeks or so, this is going to be vile. The right wing has to demonize Muslims as much as possible in order to deflect attention away from the dangers of both religious-based LGBT hatred and America's Firearms obsession. Throw a wounded Trump into this mix and... Jesus Christ. I expect this is going to result in new lows for American politics. Whatever comes out of the inevitable culture battle that is about to be fought as a result of this incident, the fighting itself is going to be hideous.
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Jun 12, 2016 16:43
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Halloween Jack posted:McVeigh was absolutely a radical right-winger. He was trying to live out the loving Turner Diaries. I believe PJ's point is that the media refuses to call right-wing terrorism what it is, while jumping to conclusions about Islamic terrorism with no evidence whatsoever. Like so many other storie: if any minority was involved, it was a catastrophic sign of an evil organization while a white straight person in the same situation is just a lone wolf or victim. Terrorism is a dirty word and applying it to the majority, especially the increasingly erratic right wing, is an unforgivable sin. It would take three 9/11 attacks by right wing extremists before this changes.
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Jun 12, 2016 16:48
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Geostomp posted:Like so many other storie: if any minority was involved, it was a catastrophic sign of an evil organization while a white straight person in the same situation is just a lone wolf or victim. Terrorism is a dirty word and applying it to the majority, especially the increasingly erratic right wing, is an unforgivable sin. It would take three 9/11 attacks by right wing extremists before this changes. Let's be honest that wouldn't even do it; notice how fast the right disowns anybody they have that does anything wrong, ever. Look at the Malheur occupation. Even though the guys were literally right wing, white, rural, Christian religious fanatics the right just said "nope, not ours." This was even after they embraced Cliven Bundy as one of theirs. Once it became more public that the Bundys were bug gently caress insane they were just plain abandoned. The American right's "all government is bad and only Christians are good" rhetoric leads to that sort of nonsense but they're quick to deny they had any involvement in it. "We don't advocate such actions." Yes. You loving do.
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Jun 12, 2016 17:15
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Octatonic posted:I'm sorry that posters are associating you with David Brooks ITT Prester Jane. Being trans and having big mental illness problems are big enough things to deal with imo. You don't need this on top of it : When people of radically different ideology reach very similar conclusions it is often (but not always) indicative of the strength of those conclusions. This violence has been ramping up for years now. What I have stuck in my head is "don't panic if the lights go out. "
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Jun 12, 2016 18:12
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I was reading the USPol thread and the Freeper thread and a few others on here, but after how bad poo poo has gotten and how bad poo poo will inevitably get in the next few weeks, this is the only D&D thread I'm going to even look at for a while. I just don't have the stomach for it. It is going to be UGLY.
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Jun 13, 2016 22:42
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Prester Jane posted:it's the perfect intersection of racism, religious terrorism, LGBT persecution, and gun control. I'm no conspiracy theorist but I gotta admit that this incident really does seem designed to hit as many hot political buttons as possible. Absolutely the only thing I can think of that could've made it even more of a clusterfuck would be if the shooter was also black.
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Jun 13, 2016 22:58
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So Trump is now revoking the Press credentials of anyone who writes a story about him that he doesn't like, is calling for a ban on [b]ALL]/b] immigration to the US, and basically accused Obama of secretly smuggling in Muslims to spread Jihad into the US. Trump is embracing Paranoid Cluster Inner Narrative's now and using them to justify overtly racist/authoritarian policies.* If Trump is not rebuffed for doing this then that means that the Narrative Convergence in his base (being driven by endless Compaction Cycles, which are in turn driven by Narrative Dysphoria) is such that using Paranoid Cluster Narrative's acceptable. If my analysis is correct, then things are going to get very bad for a period of time. Paranoid Cluster Narrative's as they exist within our cultural context are largely based off of the John Birch Society's Blue Book, which is itself basically just Russian antisemitism with "International Banker" substituted in for "Jew". (Alex Jones, David Icke, many other notable Paranoid Cluster thinkers have used the Blue Book as a blueprint for their own theories) As a result the vast bulk of Paranoid Cluster Narrative's are literally just antisemitism with an Outer Narrative of "International Banker". Wide adoption of these Narrative's during this present time of Narrative convergence (particularly with the Racist Cluster so motivated at present) means that eventually the Outer Narrative of "International Banker" will melt away and be replaced by "Jew". This will over time result in an upsurge in open antisemitism and white supremacy in Trump supporters. No matter how dark poo poo may look just remember that this is all temporary, the status-quo will reassert itself at some point. This is a very potent, but eminently temporary disruption of our culture. *Trump is not so much causing this particular bit of Narrative Convergence as he is simply reacting to what is going on in his base.
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Jun 13, 2016 23:22
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When has Trump ever been less than overt about the racism? The most he ever did was add "until we figure out what's going on" to the end.
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Jun 14, 2016 01:13
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Prester Jane, why are you so sure that Trump will melt down and fall apart? He has obviously managed to function for his entire life, running businesses and running his successful reality tv show. You're claiming that he will reach the point of becoming non-functional, but why can't he continue to channel his narcissistic tendencies as he's obviously done all along up until now? I think as the campaign goes on we're going to see increasing vicious attacks against Hillary and Bill Clinton, and against any perceived enemies he has, but I would think they could be done in a way which was socially acceptable to those who support him. My vision of this is, later in the campaign, Hillary is attacking him constantly, and he comes up with ever more nasty things to say about her, turning to her husband who he has the most ammunition on. Bill Clinton becomes "Raping Bill", and every sexual accusation ever made against Bill Clinton becomes an accusation against Hillary who stood by him. He doesn't have to melt down and start screaming and foaming at the mouth. He can say to Hillary in a debate, "Your husband is a rapist. He's disgusting. How could you allow your daughter to be raised by such a man?" All of which will be a shocking thing to hear in a political debate, but it wouldn't be him imploding.
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Jun 14, 2016 08:41
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In every other case, he's had the luxury to be able to disengage. Right now, if he starts to lose control, he's stuck.
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Jun 14, 2016 09:57
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He's also not in control of the situation any more. He's used to firing people, but gets negative press for banning Washington Post reporters from covering him.
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Jun 14, 2016 14:34
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He has also never had literally millions of people cheering on his every racist action. For a narcissist like Trump having a Cadre of cheering sycophants is the final blow to whatever tiny connection to reality they have, eventually they will drink their own kool-aid. Much like other famous charismatic narcissists that found themselves leading a Narrativist movement (L. Ron Hubbard, Adolf Hitler, wtc) once they hit this point the addiction is more or less terminal. While theoretically Donald Trump could simply re-invent himself at a later time (the standard response to a narcissist having their false image destroyed) after this has all blown over, that is incredibly unlikely this time because of the Cadre of Narrativists that support him. Think of it this way, Donald Trump is as dedicated to his false self image as a Narrativist is to their Inner Narrative. Trump's main tactic for success has,been to use his charisma to incorporate his false self image into the Inner Narrative of the four Narrativist Clusters. In short, his followers will support him with the same zeal that they support their own Inner Narrative, which will prevent the process that would otherwise enable Trump to avoid a full public meltdown.
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Jun 14, 2016 15:57
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Orange Sunshine posted:Prester Jane, why are you so sure that Trump will melt down and fall apart? To my knowledge, Trump has "run" his business and TV show in the sense that he has a ton of other people running things for him based on vague orders. The infamous bankrupt Atlantic City casinos were structured so that he personally would earn millions in return for destroying the businesses. For instance, he borrowed money at such high interest rates that the casinos he built with the money could never pay it back, made transactions in dubiously legal ways that put money directly in his pocket, and let the businesses fail entirely with no customers. Historically, Trump has gotten wealthy by essentially stealing from businesses he set up to fail. He does very little running of the stuff that's actually successful like The Apprentice, serving more as a figurehead. With the presidential campaign, Trump has actually be foisted into levels of personal responsibility. Even though he has other people actually running the stuff on the ground floor, he has to make speeches and respond personally to criticism. He can no longer remain as a figurehead hiding in a penthouse while other people run the show for him.
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Jun 14, 2016 17:00
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Kthulhu5000 posted:But actually seeing these grandstanding stunts to the end? Look at this bit from the WWE profile I linked: look i'm gonna be the guy who says it but you know that's not real right? he never actually bought wwe. it's fake. wrestling is fake. that is a bad example to point to.
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Jun 14, 2016 17:13
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This guy is voting for Trump. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvTNyKIGXiI
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Jun 14, 2016 19:18
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chitoryu12 posted:
Eh, it worked for Dubya.
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Jun 15, 2016 08:41
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Jack Gladney posted:Some who support him will probably drop away into not caring about politics, which most evangelicals did not until Reagan chose abortion as the social issue to get them in with the racists and the millionaires. Just wanted to make a quick note that this isn't true; like so many things in American history the origins of the religious right are in racism, specifically rebellion against the end of segregation. Abortion was simply a smokescreen. http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/05/religious-right-real-origins-107133#.U4cuc15MkmY quote:One of the most durable myths in recent history is that the religious right, the coalition of conservative evangelicals and fundamentalists, emerged as a political movement in response to the U.S. Supreme Court’s 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling legalizing abortion. The tale goes something like this: Evangelicals, who had been politically quiescent for decades, were so morally outraged by Roe that they resolved to organize in order to overturn it.
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Jun 15, 2016 13:48
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I found this interesting storify link where a journalist live tweeted Trump's rally last night. Although I wasn't there, the scene as described in these tweets is exactly what you would expect from a bunch of super-angry Narrativists. The poor author is overwhelmed by the unending viciousness of the entire scene and witnesses everything from blatant displays of racism to violent child abuse being simply ignored by the crowd. Over and over again this guy just keeps talking about how he can't process what he is witnessing,. that there is just so much awfulness that he finds it incomprehensible. Basically it seems like he witnessed this thread brought to life. Fake Edit: The author of the above tweets is working on a article about his experiences lasty night, I'll put up some quotes later once he publishes it.
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Jun 15, 2016 16:14
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Novermber's gonna get ugly when these people find their savior failing.
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Jun 15, 2016 19:06
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The article by the journalist that live tweeted the Trump Rally last night is up on New Republic. The entire thing is well worth a read, I'll pull out some choice bits below. (Bolding Mine)Jared Yates Sexton posted:
On the whole his description seems to jibe with my own experiences with similar Narrativist groups, just scaled up a few orders of magnitude. Edit: Fixed link. Prester Jane fucked around with this message at 23:18 on Jun 15, 2016 |
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Jun 15, 2016 21:54
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Prester Jane posted:The article by the journalist that live tweeted the Trump Rally last night is [url=https://newrepublic.com/article/134329/american-horror-story]up on New Republic.[url] The entire thing is well worth a read, I'll pull out some choice bits below. (Bolding Mine) "Haunting" doesn't do this justice. It's like a  reaching into infinity. Staring not into the abyss but through it, at the faces of monsters that lurk just under the surface.Excuse me, I need to go get a drink. J.A.B.C. fucked around with this message at 00:00 on Jun 16, 2016 |
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Jun 15, 2016 22:40
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I keep saying not to demonize people but jesus they are acting like every drat villain in all fiction ever.
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Jun 15, 2016 23:23
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With the extent to which the rhetoric and the open hatred seems to be accelerating, I'll be honest, I'm kind of scared of what may happen before November if nothing happens to calm things down between now and then.
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Jun 15, 2016 23:42
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ToxicSlurpee posted:Let's be honest that wouldn't even do it; notice how fast the right disowns anybody they have that does anything wrong, ever. Look at the Malheur occupation. Even though the guys were literally right wing, white, rural, Christian religious fanatics the right just said "nope, not ours." This was even after they embraced Cliven Bundy as one of theirs. Once it became more public that the Bundys were bug gently caress insane they were just plain abandoned. A bit late to reply to this, but oh well: I agree that the hardcore right stokes the fires and creates the sort of environment where stuff like Cliven Bundy and the Malheur idiots happen, but may it should be considered that their constant denial and cry of "False flags!" and "Not one of ours!" indicates a lot of disconnectedness between the right, and also an awareness (and perhaps unintentionally, even a tacit admission) that all their rhetoric is ultimately go-nowhere, do-nothing spleen venting in the broader scheme of things, if they can't even own those of their flock who are doing something in accordance with it. Literally The Worst posted:look i'm gonna be the guy who says it but you know that's not real right? he never actually bought wwe. it's fake. wrestling is fake. that is a bad example to point to. Of course it's all fake, but I'd say that Trump's performances with the WWE illustrate the persona he's crafted as a public figure. Look at this quote from the link and how he's described, character-wise: "He’s a captivating billionaire who has gone into battle in both the boardroom and the squared circle with equal aggression. He’s a pop culture icon who has seen his self-satisfied smirk on hit TV programs, major talk shows and countless magazine covers. Most of all, he’s an outspoken alpha male who gets his greatest pleasure from uttering two words: “You’re fired!” ". The whole page might as well be a template for his campaign. Engage in crass appeal (the money from the rafters "stunt"), steal attention from the "establishment" (Vince McMahon in the WWE, the GOP in real life), and then go on to win and humiliate the establishment (by shaving Mr. McMahon's head after his wrestler won), and further do so by essentially flaunting his wealth and "buying" the whole thing out from under Vince McMahon, again upsetting and humiliating him. The WWE is the sacred franchise of Vince McMahon but, whoops, here's Donald Trump crassly taking it over and successfully holding it for ransom. GETTING THINGS DONE! Even though the purchase didn't happen as an actual thing, it definitely jibes with Trump's campaign spiel of being independent, unbound, and willing to upset apple carts while giving no fucks about doing so. The only public character Trump plays (and maybe the only one he can play, especially today) is the blowhard heel, the guy you love to hate and who loves to be hated, the one whose good side you want to be on and woe to you if you're on his bad side. It's channeled from some inner ugliness no doubt, but at the same time, it's utterly unreal and ridiculous. And it probably won't stand up well, because at some point the euphoria will hit its peak and then taper off, the comedown will happen (for both Trump and his supporters) and there won't be much gas in the tank to keep the anger engine going at the same output it was before. You can only eat so much cake, drink so much beer, and celebrate so much before you begin to feel sick and collapse and become gunshy of it all for a while. It's still approximately five months to election day, and summer is coming. If people get out in the sunshine and warm temperatures and do other things besides staying cooped up inside online or watching the news (which cold and wet winter and spring weather encourages), they'll maybe have a chance to take a break from Trump, get a bit more rational, and his appeal will diminish. When you're cooped up inside because of rain and snow and short days with long nights, and operating in a crisis mentality (as the Republicans have done since 9/11 and particularly since the election of Obama), the spectacle of Trump no doubt alleviates the frantic feelings of cabin fever and the sense of being trapped in the dark. Out there, someone is doing something and burning bright against the shadowy menaces and fears you believe in. But once spring becomes more summer-like and going outside seems palatable again, I think the psychology will shift and people will have more perspective and maybe begin to feel burnout, regret, and maybe even anger at Trump for dazzling them momentarily and then being so tacky and unpresidential seeming in the light of day. Of course, there are always diehards, but I expect that Trump will lose momentum in the coming months. Undecided voters and upset Republican moderates might lean towards Hillary, especially if Trump just continues as he is but shows little nuance or grace as a candidate, and other Trump supporters might second-guess his credentials and opt for a third party like the Libertarians. Perhaps not in significant numbers, but perhaps enough to give Hillary an edge.
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Jun 16, 2016 00:07
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"Going outside in summer is palatable" - a non Texan. 
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Jun 16, 2016 00:24
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GreyjoyBastard posted:"Going outside in summer is palatable" - a non Texan. It does explain why California is so liberal.
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Jun 16, 2016 00:49
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GreyjoyBastard posted:"Going outside in summer is palatable" - a non Texan. This is true. I live in the gloom of the Pacific Northwest, so summer is both welcome and also not brain-frying day after brain-frying day of intense heat (though we do get a few quite warm stretches at times). But yeah, I still think that as the northern latitudes warm up and the frost-bound populations within them get a chance to get outside, away from their TVs and Internet, and do something fun or productive, you'll see a slackening in Trump support. When it's warm out, you have the BBQ or grill going, and a cold beer in your hand, things maybe don't seem dramatic and intense. Admittedly, a BBQ might also seem like the sort of place to reinforce Trump's appeal, but even talking about him can inspire more thinking about him rather than reflexively oohing and aahing because he's in his full movie man character and saying things that make him appear to be the only bright spot in a dismal world.
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Jun 16, 2016 01:19
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In my experience, hot summers make people more violent. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hot-and-bothered-experts-say-violent-crime-rises-with-the-heat/
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Jun 16, 2016 03:53
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The disconcerting thing about these rallies is that people really show their true colors. I've been to a Tea Party rally (one of the first ones) and the level of hatred and outright racism at the newly-elected Obama was staggering. I remember the Tea Party conveniently coming into existence right after Obama took the White House and some people just hated him, even before he had time to pass any legislation. Don't even want to imagine what a Trump rally is like. My family has a large Republican bloc that has already said they're going to vote for Trump, if for nothing else than to stop Clinton - although they suggest it's too bad Ted Cruz and Ben Carson couldn't have been the nominee instead. Sadly, I think they only say that to mask their somewhat biased racial views. That said, I don't see a lot of Trump supporters. Like, yeah they're out there, but I suppose it's just who I associate with, never really brings me into contact. When I went to a Sanders rally, it was kinda annoying how many of those "legalize it!" dweebs were there (like, yeah, deffo but let's maybe solve some bigger problems first) but their enthusiasm was still of an optimistic note. Even if a lot of them thought they were going to set everything straight, there was a genial atmosphere. One of inclusion. But reading those tweets brings back memories of being surrounded by those downright hatemongers and realizing Jesus gently caress if they knew anything about my private life they would rip me apart. Long story short, rallies can be a pretty good indicator what you're really going to get.
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Jun 16, 2016 04:55
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Ah. I see T. Cruz has finally made the filters list. Well, at least he won something.
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Jun 16, 2016 04:56
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Only just started reading this thread and I'm reminded of the Jon Ronson book Them:Adventures with Extremists. Which is similarly about the idea that different extremist groups tend to be strikingly similar in terms of the structure of their ideology.
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Jun 16, 2016 15:05
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