USPOL June 2016: Oh say can you Arzy?

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL June 2016: Oh say can you Arzy?

showbiz_liz: Jun 2, 2008

Geoff Peterson posted:

pleasantly surprised to see Becerra

Just based on brief googling, aside from not being from a swing state and being in his late 50s, this guy seems like a pretty good choice. I'm surprised I haven't heard of him being floated for this before.

# ? Jun 16, 2016 15:55

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# ? Jun 4, 2024 16:07

Trabisnikof: Dec 24, 2005

theflyingorc posted:

what is your problem, he's made several informative posts about how difficult it is to ban based on configuration, why the hell does that mean that he's cool with the murders in Orlando

They were probably talking about the poster who shat on those posts about regulations because some photo had threading viable.

# ? Jun 16, 2016 15:56

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Sign on the door of an Orlando gay bar:

# ? Jun 16, 2016 15:57

Xanderkish: Aug 10, 2011; Hello!

Electric Bugaloo posted:

Lol if you think "the gun was handmade" is anything but a giant win for the "ban them all" argument.

Imagine if every stupid gun death in this country was predicated on the perpetrator having to jury-rig his own device at home.

If guns are outlawed, only outlaws will purchase a large number of disparate materials, download how-to design manuals online, then cobble them together into something vaguely weaponish while praying to God it doesn't explode when they pull the trigger.

# ? Jun 16, 2016 15:58

Armani: Jun 22, 2008; Now it's been 17 summers since I've seen my mother

But every night I see her smile inside my dreams

Mr Hootington posted:

Yes they do.

Lmao how did you get away with this

# ? Jun 16, 2016 15:58

emdash: Oct 19, 2003; and?

zoux posted:

Sign on the door of an Orlando gay bar:

well played

# ? Jun 16, 2016 15:59

Business Gorillas: Mar 11, 2009

emdash posted:

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/06/rick-wilson-epic-never-trump-tweetstorm

rick wilson goes ham on trump and his supporters

some good poo poo in here

https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/743281236395819008

Nice meltdown :stare:

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:02

Feldegast42: Oct 29, 2011; COMMENCE THE RITE OF SHITPOSTING

Crabtree posted:

Look, you don't understand, my 20 or so modified AR-15s could totally take on all the drones, tanks, missiles, APCs, attack helicopters, electronic warfare and other tools the United States Military, Reserve Army and soon probably even the police could field if our glorious revolution against the government ever occurred. War hasn't changed since 1776 and the US Army would totally walk in single file down our ambush points and let us win through gorilla tactics! Second Amendment will save us.

Your right, guerrilla tactics from a hostile populace have never worked against the US military before

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:04

Trabisnikof: Dec 24, 2005

Feldegast42 posted:

Your right, guerrilla tactics from a hostile populace have never worked against the US military before

I mean, Geronimo held out for a while but I wouldn't call it a success.

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:07

Jarmak: Jan 24, 2005

RuanGacho posted:

Its curious to me that there is an implication that anyone who wants gun control also wants the no fly list plan. I don't think I've seen anyone here advocate for it, and those that have talked about it at all have insinuated its some sort of 4th dimensional chess by the Democrats to get the Republicans to enact some form of gun control. I don't think they're that clever and despite the political momentum they are obviously feeling this is an obvious monkey paw scenario where you wish for gun control and you get an extrajudicial monitoring program that does nothing because no crimes were committed until he opened fire.

I could go on further but when you use mental health as a standard for criminal prosecution that is a potentially greater threat to personal liberty than if you're allowed to own a particular hard good. That is why mental health talk is a non starter for me because as loathe as I am for the reality it leads to a path where being as opposition to the standing government could become a crime.

I'll bite on this, I'm in favor, I don't really understand why people's reaction to the due process problems is "throw it out" instead of "fix the due process problems".

I'm much more in favor of the FBI being able to put a stop order on your gun purchases then your travel, the details need to be worked out but I seems kind of intuitive to me that if the FBI sees you hanging out in ISIS chat rooms there should be a mechanism that lets them stop you from going down to walmart and buying a dozen AR15s

(yes I know Walmart doesn't sell them anymore)

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:07

VitalSigns: Sep 3, 2011

MattD1zzl3 posted:

Its terrifying to see them go whole-hog on the "gently caress a free society and the constitution..... SLAAAAAAAAVES built this free society! Tear it down!". I thought i'd be an old man when that happened

The no-fly list is dumb and bad but beating your chest like it's the end of freedom in America now that politicians you don't like are using it, when it's been around for over a decade and the Bush administration was putting journalists and peace activists on it for criticizing the war is cringeworthy.

We shouldn't be doing this but if liberty died it was when we were black-bagging and torturing people.

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:10

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Feldegast42 posted:

Your right, guerrilla tactics from a hostile populace have never worked against the US military before

Hahaha I wonder if there's a difference between Vietnam, Afghanistan and the continental US. Can anyone think of any?

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:13

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

Feldegast42 posted:

Your right, guerrilla tactics from a hostile populace have never worked against the US military before

"An insurgent campaign against the United States government is totally going to work on domestic soil because look at Iraq and Afghanistan" is breathtakingly ignorant of the logistical, strategic and political differences between one and the other.

The US ultimately pulled out of the Middle East because it was an unpopular, expensive, but most importantly not an existential threat to the country. The same cannot be said of rebellion.

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:16

sean10mm: Jun 29, 2005; It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD-2R World

max4me posted:

Gun owners are right to be pissed, because the current state of their hobby is really hamstrung by rules and regs that dont work.

Here is a sks its based on a design that is from the 1940s

Notice the nice wood stock.

Here is the same rife with a different stock and some add on's

This is actually a terrible example. The original gun has an internal, fixed 10 round box magazine fed from the top with little stripper clips that only hold 10 rounds. The bottom gun looks like it was modified to accept a detachable box magazine that holds 30 rounds and can be quickly swapped out for a fresh magazine with the push of a button. Functionally they are actually different in an important way if you care about how quickly it can kill large numbers of people, which is why armies moved away from guns with small fixed internal magazines to large detachable box magazines like AR-15/AK/etc.

By a reasonable definition of an assault weapon (a semi-automatic rifle with a detachable box magazine) the top one isn't and the bottom one is.

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:16

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

gradenko_2000 posted:

"An insurgent campaign against the United States government is totally going to work on domestic soil because look at Iraq and Afghanistan" is breathtakingly ignorant of the logistical, strategic and political differences between one and the other.

The US ultimately pulled out of the Middle East because it was an unpopular, expensive, but most importantly not an existential threat to the country. The same cannot be said of rebellion.

We'll never be able to dislodge the insurgency in the jungles of Virginia and lose them in the labyrinthine hills of Pennsylvania.

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:17

Phone: Jul 30, 2005; 親子丼をほしい。

Lmao "hey guys I just made this"

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:19

Full Battle Rattle: Aug 29, 2009; As long as the times refuse to change, we're going to make a hell of a racket.

I wish those people could have a taste, just one day of the 'revolution', just to see what it's like when the power goes out and it's not coming back on, going out for patrol to come back to find your house a drone-struck crater, or having most of your friends muster for duty and get wiped out by a different, bigger drone strike. An insurgency has the ability to work, but it's an ugly business, it's not fun, and it can be years, sometimes over a decade, of near constant low-intensity fighting. You have to be able and willing to endure some heavy losses, and those losses are going to be people you know intimately from your community. I'd also like to see what they'd do about logistics after the local Wal-Mart doesn't get restocked because it's now in an active war-zone.

The most ironic part is that if you really wanted to see how to keep the military at bay while you kept an insurgency going you would have to heavily study the tactics used by islamic terror insurgency groups. Either that or the Viet Cong's playbook, I suppose.

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:20

boom boom boom: Jun 28, 2012; by Shine

Solkanar512 posted:

Then they throw in a huge loving lecture about screw threading and forget the fact that actual people are dead for no sensible reason.

The part of gun control debates where the gun control advocate not only admits they don't know anything about guns, but go on to state that their ignorance marks them as a better person. Which is the sort of thing I expect more from Warhammer 40k characters than real people.

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:22

lynch_69: Jan 21, 2001

President Chelsea Clinton could be handing out free coupons for abortions to pre schoolers on national trans awareness week and the guns and freedom brigade will do what they've always done - sit on their overfed asses and complain on the internet. The idea of Americans rising up in armed rebellion exists only in video games, let's be real here.

lynch_69 fucked around with this message at 16:26 on Jun 16, 2016

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:22

Prester Jane: Nov 4, 2008; by Hand Knit

In an attempt to break away from the drudgery of gunchat with a refreshing glass of schadenfreude I am crossposting the from the Authoritarians thread:

Unskewing of polls has already begun.

American Thinker posted:

Better yet in terms of showing gross bias, 53% of those surveyed apparently voted for Barack Obama in 2012, and just 30% voted for Mitt Romney. This polling ratio of 2012 Obama:Romney voters is absurdly biased toward liberal voting preferences, given how the actual 2012 election results saw just a 51.1%-to-47.2% split in favor of Obama.

Thus, the poll is biased about 20% toward Obama over Romney supporters � otherwise roughly known as liberals versus conservatives. Among respondents who did vote for Romney, Trump has dominance (74%) compared to Clinton (just 6%). Thus, had this poll been weighted to reflect the actual 2012 voting patterns, Trump would emerge with a large lead over Clinton rather than a 3% deficit.

A whopping 47% of those surveyed apparently had a bachelor's degree, compared to U.S. Census Bureau data showing that just 32.5% of the population 25 years and older has this level of education.

Despite these anti-Trump biases, there is some good news in the polling data showing that the standard-model liberal narrative against the GOP presidential candidate is entirely false.

Clinton currently has just a 10% edge among all women (regardless of race) over Trump, which is less than the 11% advantage Obama had over Romney in 2012 and far less than the 13% deficit McCain had compared to Obama in 2008. Repeated polling data for several months shows Trump clearly winning the white female vote over Clinton.

Trump is getting 17% of the black vote, far higher than the 4% McCain received and 6% that Romney was able to obtain. Among Hispanics, 29% say they will choose Trump, more than voted for Romney (27%), and Trump is also on track to pick up more of the Asian vote (29%) than did Romney (26%).

Keep in mind that these are clearly underestimates of actual support from women and non-whites for Trump, as the poll is glaringly skewed away from Trump in its demographic composition. But if we correct for these biases, it becomes clear that Trump is likely out in front of Clinton by at least several percentage points and may be on pace to a solid electoral showing among women and non-whites.

All this points to a potential Trump landslide come November.

And now some choice quotes from a Politico article titled "Trump's relationship with RNC sours".

Politico posted:

Donald Trump is relying heavily on the Republican Party to bolster his skeletal operation, but his campaign�s relationship with the Republican National Committee is increasingly plagued by distrust, power struggles and strategic differences, according to sources in both camps.

In recent days, RNC chairman Reince Priebus has privately grumbled that his advice doesn�t seem welcome with Trump, according to one RNC insider. Other party officials have expressed frustration that Trump�s campaign is trying to take too much control over a pair of fundraising committees with the party while adding little to the effort, according to campaign and party officials familiar with the relationship.

While Trump had promised Priebus that he would call two dozen top GOP donors, when RNC chief of staff Katie Walsh recently presented Trump with a list of more than 20 donors, he called only three before stopping, according to two sources familiar with the situation. It�s unclear whether he resumed the donor calls later.

....

�I don�t think we are going to take a lot of political advice from Priebus,� a campaign official said. �From my perspective, we should not be relying on the RNC for much, because I�m not sure they are fully supportive yet,� the campaign official said, adding �but we hope and expect to soon be on the exact same page.�

.....

On Wednesday, the RNC told The Washington Post that it had retained Wiley as a consultant to help run its national field program � a move it said was done with the blessing of the Trump campaign.

However, three operatives in and around the campaign suggested Wiley�s hiring at the RNC may have been blessed by one faction of the campaign, but that it�s not going over well with many staffers.

One said it�s being viewed as �a direct f� you to the campaign.�

Wiley had served as Trump�s national political director. And his fall from grace was partly due to the widespread perception among Trump�s staff that he was working closely with the RNC and representing himself as the campaign�s official liaison without the candidate�s blessing.

.....

Major party presidential nominees typically merge their operations with those of their respective parties after securing their nominations, and it�s not unusual for rifts to emerge during the mergers. But in interviews with more than a dozen Republicans familiar with the relationship between Trump and the RNC, it became apparent that the phenomenon is more pronounced than in past presidential years, despite Trump�s greater reliance on the RNC for basic campaign functions.

.....

Trump�s efforts to build a relationship with the RNC also have been hindered by the disorganization and infighting that plague his campaign.

When campaign official Michael Caputo late last month reached out to an RNC researcher asking for material on the Clintons� Whitewater real estate controversy, he was rebuked by campaign spokeswoman Hope Hicks for contacting the RNC researcher.

�He is still an employee of the RNC, and we need to be sensitive to that until he comes over to our team full time,� Hicks wrote in an email to Caputo that was obtained by POLITICO.

.....

Trump�s organizational challenges have led to confusion about who was serving as the campaign�s point person to the RNC, a vacuum that Wiley had filled, apparently without official sign-off from the campaign.

Three operatives who have worked with the campaign suggested that Wiley�s recent hiring by the RNC may have been partly a power play by Trump�s campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, in his power struggle with campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, who had pushed for Wiley to be fired from the campaign.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7hsVa18yfA

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:22

Trabisnikof: Dec 24, 2005

boom boom boom posted:

The part of gun control debates where the gun control advocate not only admits they don't know anything about guns, but go on to state that their ignorance marks them as a better person. Which is the sort of thing I expect more from Warhammer 40k characters than real people.

I don't need to know poo poo about carborators to know driver licenses are a good thing.

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:23

nachos: Jun 27, 2004; Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Hey guys, in case summiting mount everest and cutting taxes 37 times and supporting internet freedom isn't enough to convince you I'd like to just throw out that I'm the only candidate other than Trump or Hillary on all 50 state ballots this November

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:23

emdash: Oct 19, 2003; and?

Trabisnikof posted:

I don't need to know poo poo about carborators to know driver licenses are a good thing.

for the love of god please stop responding to them, no progress has been made in any direction for two entire days or more

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:24

Trabisnikof: Dec 24, 2005

nachos posted:

Hey guys, in case summiting mount everest and cutting taxes 37 times and supporting internet freedom isn't enough to convince you I'd like to just throw out that I'm the only candidate other than Trump or Hillary on all 50 state ballots this November

If Trump has to spend money in Utah I'm going to be pumped.

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:24

STAC Goat: Mar 12, 2008; Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

RuanGacho posted:

Its curious to me that there is an implication that anyone who wants gun control also wants the no fly list plan. I don't think I've seen anyone here advocate for it, and those that have talked about it at all have insinuated its some sort of 4th dimensional chess by the Democrats to get the Republicans to enact some form of gun control. I don't think they're that clever and despite the political momentum they are obviously feeling this is an obvious monkey paw scenario where you wish for gun control and you get an extrajudicial monitoring program that does nothing because no crimes were committed until he opened fire.

I don't think its so much "clever" on the Democrats part as it is "desperate." It feels like this happened.

Democrats: For God's sakes, do SOMETHING! Universal background checks! Assault weapons ban! The terrorist watch list! Something!
Republicans: Terrorists with guns?
Democrats: Wait, you liked that one?! OK! LETS DO THIS!

It seems like the opening they see to finally do something that is either digestible to the right or simply is too hard for them to argue against without sounding like they're "soft on terror." Which is also why I think the Republicans and even the NRA are paying lip service to it. I don't think they have any intention of following through but they've recognized that allowing the POTUS and the Democrats to say "they won't let us keep guns out of the hands of people being investigated for terrorists" undermines their attacks on Obama, Hillary, and the Dems that they're the ones soft on terror. So we have them pretending to play ball and we have Dems jumping on the opening.

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:26

emdash: Oct 19, 2003; and?

https://amp.twimg.com/v/0e0fa0af-7eb2-454a-bd2e-b04b7c480661

new HRC Trump attack ad

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:27

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

Prester Jane posted:

Thus, the poll is biased about 20% toward Obama over Romney supporters � otherwise roughly known as liberals versus conservatives. Among respondents who did vote for Romney, Trump has dominance (74%) compared to Clinton (just 6%). Thus, had this poll been weighted to reflect the actual 2012 voting patterns, Trump would emerge with a large lead over Clinton rather than a 3% deficit.

Clinton currently has just a 10% edge among all women (regardless of race) over Trump, which is less than the 11% advantage Obama had over Romney in 2012 and far less than the 13% deficit McCain had compared to Obama in 2008. Repeated polling data for several months shows Trump clearly winning the white female vote over Clinton.

Trump is getting 17% of the black vote, far higher than the 4% McCain received and 6% that Romney was able to obtain. Among Hispanics, 29% say they will choose Trump, more than voted for Romney (27%), and Trump is also on track to pick up more of the Asian vote (29%) than did Romney (26%).

Keep in mind that these are clearly underestimates of actual support from women and non-whites for Trump, as the poll is glaringly skewed away from Trump in its demographic composition. But if we correct for these biases, it becomes clear that Trump is likely out in front of Clinton by at least several percentage points and may be on pace to a solid electoral showing among women and non-whites.

mbisonyes.gif

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:28

LGD: Sep 25, 2004

nachos posted:

Hey guys, in case summiting mount everest and cutting taxes 37 times and supporting internet freedom isn't enough to convince you I'd like to just throw out that I'm the only candidate other than Trump or Hillary on all 50 state ballots this November

which, to be fair, is very possibly qualification enough for a lot of people this time around

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:28

DaveWoo: Aug 14, 2004; Fun Shoe

nachos posted:

Hey guys, in case summiting mount everest and cutting taxes 37 times and supporting internet freedom isn't enough to convince you I'd like to just throw out that I'm the only candidate other than Trump or Hillary on all 50 state ballots this November

That last part is probably his most compelling argument.

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:28

Samurai Sanders: Nov 4, 2003; Pillbug

This poll unskewing business that I always read about here is just a joke, right?

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:29

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/743456690457055233?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Samurai Sanders posted:

This poll unskewing business that I always read about here is just a joke, right?

No. In fact we had our own inhouse poll unskewer who is an YCS IK this cycle.

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:29

WampaLord: Jan 14, 2010

Prester Jane posted:

And now some choice quotes from a Politico article titled "Trump's relationship with RNC sours".

I saw that thing about how he only called 3 donors out of 24 on another site and I thought of your theory. You're right, he doesn't want to be President, he just wants the attention.

Samurai Sanders posted:

This poll unskewing business that I always read about here is just a joke, right?

No, there was literally a site called Unskewed Polls where he added like +5 to Romney because he though the polls were oversampling Democrats.

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:32

hhhat: Apr 29, 2008

Phone posted:

Lmao "hey guys I just made this"

Can someone post this on Facebook and save it a few more times I can still read the words

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:32

STAC Goat: Mar 12, 2008; Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Samurai Sanders posted:

This poll unskewing business that I always read about here is just a joke, right?

A bunch of Republicans straight up thought Romney was going to kill Obama based on them. It was nuts. I knew people who were totally shell shocked the next day and basically going "wait... were the polls right?" Supposedly Romney himself was blindsided.

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:33

Grundulum: Feb 28, 2006

zoux posted:

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/743456690457055233?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

"Adults" have Trump at 70% unfavorable? What demographic is that?

Edit: and are they also asking children?

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:34

SubponticatePoster: Aug 9, 2004; Every day takes figurin' out all over again how to fuckin' live.; Slippery Tilde

Trabisnikof posted:

If Trump has to spend money in Utah I'm going to be pumped.

As someone who lives there I doubt he'll bother. Personally I'm hoping for a Trump/Johnson split for the regular R voters and we actually squeak out a Dem win, just to watch people flip their poo poo. I doubt it'll happen, but I can dream :allears:

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:35

BlueBlazer: Apr 1, 2010

STAC Goat posted:

I don't think its so much "clever" on the Democrats part as it is "desperate." It feels like this happened.

Democrats: For God's sakes, do SOMETHING! Universal background checks! Assault weapons ban! The terrorist watch list! Something!
Republicans: Terrorists with guns?
Democrats: Wait, you liked that one?! OK! LETS DO THIS!

Background checks please. I do not want impinge on the holy sanctity of the right to bear arms, just make sure a process is in place during the acquisition of those arms. You have said arms, go ahead and bear away. Not like they can be really taken away without your permission anyway. You have a gun. You'll shoot me.

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:35

Bates: Jun 15, 2006

Full Battle Rattle posted:

I wish those people could have a taste, just one day of the 'revolution', just to see what it's like when the power goes out and it's not coming back on, going out for patrol to come back to find your house a drone-struck crater, or having most of your friends muster for duty and get wiped out by a different, bigger drone strike. An insurgency has the ability to work, but it's an ugly business, it's not fun, and it can be years, sometimes over a decade, of near constant low-intensity fighting. You have to be able and willing to endure some heavy losses, and those losses are going to be people you know intimately from your community. I'd also like to see what they'd do about logistics after the local Wal-Mart doesn't get restocked because it's now in an active war-zone.

The most ironic part is that if you really wanted to see how to keep the military at bay while you kept an insurgency going you would have to heavily study the tactics used by islamic terror insurgency groups. Either that or the Viet Cong's playbook, I suppose.

You need at least some of the military to defect. Without that it doesn't matter what a bunch of random assholes in tacticool think they're gong to do.

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:36

Pebble and the Penguin: Sep 9, 2010; You're going out there a silly, hysterical, screaming queen, but you're coming back a great, big, passing-for-straight Broadway star!

If you thought we've already reached peak election season, then boy...

https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/743289565172097024

This year's gonna be a year to beat.

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:36

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# ? Jun 4, 2024 16:07

Fans: Jun 27, 2013; A reptile dysfunction

Grundulum posted:

"Adults" have Trump at 70% unfavorable? What demographic is that?

Edit: and are they also asking children?

Wouldn't that just be "Voters" ? I guess it could include non voters, but do they do that for polls?

# ? Jun 16, 2016 16:36

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