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Why did the deficit hawks take over, and who are they? I only know about Cameron being elected but not the continent. Why did Hollande campaign on Keynes but then become a hawk? Did that even happen?
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Jun 19, 2016 04:21
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Cameron isn't really a deficit hawk, he's a Thatcherite who hates the idea of the state doing anything other than making him money and uses austerity rhetoric to justify selling off everything he can and cutting services. The conservatives have completely failed to actually solve the deficit (and meet just about every other target they've set) but the point is just to cut services and sell things, nothing more.
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Jun 19, 2016 04:23
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Arglebargle III posted:Why did the deficit hawks take over, and who are they? I only know about Cameron being elected but not the continent. Why did Hollande campaign on Keynes but then become a hawk? Did that even happen? Hollande campaigned on deficit spending and then Merkel told him "lol, no" and he listened to her because he doesn't really want to be president, I guess.
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Jun 19, 2016 04:42
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Badger of Basra posted:Hollande campaigned on deficit spending and then Merkel told him "lol, no" and he listened to her because he doesn't really want to be president, I guess. I don't understand why the German chancellor could tell the French President what to do with his budget. Is that really what happened?
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Jun 19, 2016 04:55
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Well that is sort of the point of the whole EU thing, that national leaders talk to each other.
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Jun 19, 2016 04:57
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Arglebargle III posted:I don't understand why the German chancellor could tell the French President what to do with his budget. Is that really what happened? Germany's got more money than any other country in Europe. Therefore they are the emperor and everyone else is their vassals. It's simple, really.
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Jun 19, 2016 06:12
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Cat Mattress posted:Germany's got more money than any other country in Europe. Therefore they are the emperor and everyone else is their vassals. It's simple, really. This dynamic is further helped by Schäuble being a smooth negotiator who will use well reasoned arguments to settle matters of discontent. Hey look, someone even caught it on camera https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HM6X_wdZJaE&t=18s
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Jun 19, 2016 06:47
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MiddleOne posted:
this is straight-up me in abuja btw
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Jun 19, 2016 07:54
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Arglebargle III posted:I don't understand why the German chancellor could tell the French President what to do with his budget. Is that really what happened? Because when they introduced the Euro France agreed to a debt ceiling of 3% of GDP per year and they are still not meeting this benchmark. It's really the fault of Juncker and his commission that France does not get nailed harder for being a spendthrift. He should have made a German (or Northern/Eastern European) commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation and Customs and not his drinking buddy Moscovici.
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Jun 19, 2016 07:56
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Has Germany always followed the 3% rule? I think it's more of a question of powerful countries getting away with it. Also the EC is currently holding back from punishing Spain for the deficit because there are elections coming, and there's brexit looming. I'm ready to bet that, after those two events pass, Greece will be grinded a bit finer.
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Jun 19, 2016 08:59
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The rule was always dumb and the EU never had the balls to actually enforce it. Just get rid of it.
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Jun 19, 2016 09:04
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No way, unlike with the UK, Germany actually wants Greece out of the union. Or well, Schäuble wants that outcome at least.
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Jun 19, 2016 09:04
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I don't think Schauble cares any more, I don't think he has any more plans to see through. They agreed on holding the Greek debt conference in 2018, after the German elections. So when that happens someone else is going to be finance minister and have to deal with it and Schauble's legacy gets to stay untarnished.
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Jun 19, 2016 09:53
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GaussianCopula posted:Because when they introduced the Euro France agreed to a debt ceiling of 3% of GDP per year and they are still not meeting this benchmark. It's really the fault of Juncker and his commission that France does not get nailed harder for being a spendthrift. He should have made a German (or Northern/Eastern European) commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation and Customs and not his drinking buddy Moscovici.
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Jun 19, 2016 10:05
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Why a German? You've breached the rules several times. No, the only countries responsible enough to manage the EU are Denmark, Finland, Luxembourg, and Sweden. I strongly object to the presence of Jean-Fraude "LuxLeaks" Juncker's homeland on the list of responsible countries.
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Jun 19, 2016 10:25
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Dawncloack posted:Has Germany always followed the 3% rule? No, the original stability and growth pact had its rules loosened after both France and Germany violated it in 2004-5. However, to respond to Arglebargle III, after the sovereign debt crisis started in Greece and subsequently spread through the other peripheral Euro countries, the countries which wanted a stricter policing of government deficits got the upper hand (mainly because the GIIPS desperately needed money as the yields on their government debt started rising and they couldn't borrow at any affordable rates, but also because some now thoroughly discredited ideas started spreading about how austerity could be expansionary and how countries with debt of over 90% of GDP could kiss any chance of economic growth goodbye forever). These were in particular Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and Slovakia. So the EU member states agreed on both tighter rules on deficits and stronger surveillance of fiscal and economic policy: the Europe Plus Pact, Sixpack, Twopack, Fiscal Compact (trust me, you don't really want to know), and European Semester. What it boils down to is that the rules now are that euro member states are not just supposed to keep their deficits under 3%, but also that they are required to run primary surpluses until their debt starts approaching 60% of GDP. Also, while previously member states could previously be sanctioned by the European Commission for breaking the deficit rules subject to the approval of a qualified majority of member states, the sanctions once imposed are now supposed to be definitive, and can only be overturned by a qualified majority. Also, in the European Semester, member states' fiscal and economic policies are evaluated both by the European Commission, and country-specific recommendations are adopted by the European Council. This is why Merkel and Schäuble have a voice in telling other member states what to do; in theory, everybody does, but Germany is the most important member state. So in practice it turns out there's more flexibility with regard to how the rules are being applied , particularly if you're France, or if you've got elections coming up, so no sanctions have been imposed yet anywhere. But the bias of European economic governance is towards forcing member states to cut their deficits. Dawncloack posted:Also the EC is currently holding back from punishing Spain for the deficit because there are elections coming, and there's brexit looming. I'm ready to bet that, after those two events pass, Greece will be grinded a bit finer. Greece just received a 7.5 billion euro installment from the latest bailout plan, so they're 'safe' for now.
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Jun 19, 2016 10:30
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Arglebargle III posted:I don't understand why the German chancellor could tell the French President what to do with his budget. Is that really what happened? The problem of running a deficit is that the people guaranteeing your solvency have a leverage on you.
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Jun 19, 2016 10:36
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YF-23 posted:I don't think Schauble cares any more, I don't think he has any more plans to see through. They agreed on holding the Greek debt conference in 2018, after the German elections. So when that happens someone else is going to be finance minister and have to deal with it and Schauble's legacy gets to stay untarnished. Yeah, but he's going to be the Chancellor so he can hardly just wash his hands of it completely.
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Jun 19, 2016 10:37
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forkboy84 posted:Yeah, but he's going to be the Chancellor so he can hardly just wash his hands of it completely. trigger warning.
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Jun 19, 2016 11:26
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forkboy84 posted:Yeah, but he's going to be the Chancellor so he can hardly just wash his hands of it completely. As plausible as that nightmare scenario is, the dude's pretty old so I'll be at least somewhat surprised if he doesn't retire.
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Jun 19, 2016 11:47
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Cat Mattress posted:I strongly object to the presence of Jean-Fraude "LuxLeaks" Juncker's homeland on the list of responsible countries.
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Jun 19, 2016 11:50
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YF-23 posted:As plausible as that nightmare scenario is, the dude's pretty old so I'll be at least somewhat surprised if he doesn't retire. Our president is retiring instead of facing re-election, so yeah retirement is an option for our very old politicians. Also, Schäuble as Chancellor?  He's probably dead and decayed down to his skeleton long before Merkel steps down.
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Jun 19, 2016 12:07
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double nine posted:trigger warning. Best to always prepare yourself for the worst possible outcome.
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Jun 19, 2016 12:21
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steinrokkan posted:The problem of running a deficit is that the people guaranteeing your solvency have a leverage on you. So it's true what they say, that German bankers run the EU?
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Jun 19, 2016 19:47
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What's the general feel in Greece among trade unions and communists and the like about Brexit and the EU in general? Did the Troika's fuckery push them into wanting to leave or is reform still the name of the game?
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Jun 20, 2016 14:01
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Either way, I don't see reform of the EU possible without a Brexit. For at least two reasons: 1. The UK, ever since Thatcher, has been largely responsible (along with the Germans) for the EU being what it is now. 2. The EU is so sure of itself and so convinced that its policies are God's Unquestionable Truth that it just isn't possible at all for it to change without a seriously traumatic event to shake it up. Losing one of the Big Three countries could be that traumatic event that would lead to reexamining the validity of certain dogma that they adhere to despite reality getting consistently in the way.
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Jun 20, 2016 14:23
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Arglebargle III posted:So it's true what they say, that German bankers run the EU? Yes, and the current bunch of arseholes at the top are basically Scrooge McDuck levels of selfish so the idea of giving even a penny of debt relief would be worse than the Holocaust as far as they're concerned.
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Jun 20, 2016 14:40
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Cat Mattress posted:Either way, I don't see reform of the EU possible without a Brexit. For at least two reasons: According to the second poll on this article, everyone except Great Britain wants more integration, which would solve a lot of problems the current half-assed system has. Ironically, from the Big Three only Germany's population is in favour of more integration (59%). France is waffling on 49% indecision, while Great Britain is strongly against with only 31% in favor of more integration. From the other major countries, Italy and Spain polled insanely high with 71% and 78%. Poland is reverse France with 50% in favor, but only 27% demanding less integration. (France has 40% demanding less peace and prosperity, more wars in Europe)
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Jun 20, 2016 14:46
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It would be a good first step to reform the EP to actually be a democratic institution - with every vote being at least roughly equal in value.
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Jun 20, 2016 14:54
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Why a German? You've breached the rules several times. No, the only countries responsible enough to manage the EU are Denmark, Finland, Luxembourg, and Sweden. Surely a Swiss would be the optimum impartial choice.
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Jun 20, 2016 15:01
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Coohoolin posted:What's the general feel in Greece among trade unions and communists and the like about Brexit and the EU in general? Did the Troika's fuckery push them into wanting to leave or is reform still the name of the game? The leader of KKE (the communist party) was actually asked in an interview relatively recently, and he said they're, to paraphrase, "neither with Brexit nor with Bremain" because both campaigns ultimately envision a capitalist Britain that's just control by different subsets of capital. And, sure, I guess that makes sense, but it's also the most  answer possible and earned him a fair amount of Internet ridicule. The communist left in Greece is typically anti-EU in that it sees it as a tool of imperialist capitalism, with the exception of reformist tendencies that you'd see in, for example, SYRIZA.Trade unions are probably generally pro-EU in a general sense, but then you have KKE's PAME which is pretty big, and obviously enough, shares KKE's views. And, I haven't been following union news in particular, but I know there's leadership issues with GSEE (the General Confederation of Greek Workers, the highest union body in Greece), as it has remained to my knowledge virtually unchanged (its current president has been president since '06). This means a lot of these guys are affiliated with the old political mainstream, and are basically out-of-touch career unionists.
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Jun 20, 2016 15:01
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Coohoolin posted:Surely a Swiss would be the optimum impartial choice. I'm not sure switching to the country that horded the Nazi gold is a major improvement.
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Jun 20, 2016 15:05
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YF-23 posted:The leader of KKE (the communist party) was actually asked in an interview relatively recently, and he said they're, to paraphrase, "neither with Brexit nor with Bremain" because both campaigns ultimately envision a capitalist Britain that's just control by different subsets of capital. And, sure, I guess that makes sense, but it's also the most So they're like trade unionists and communists anywhere else and I won't get real insight. Thanks! Tesseraction posted:I'm not sure switching to the country that horded the Nazi gold is a major improvement. Hey, they were just keeping it safe so it could be redistributed to the families when everything was over.
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Jun 20, 2016 15:10
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Coohoolin posted:Hey, they were just keeping it safe so it could be redistributed to the families when everything was over. Call me sceptic but I'm suspicious that several million people never got their money back.
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Jun 20, 2016 15:11
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Cat Mattress posted:Either way, I don't see reform of the EU possible without a Brexit. For at least two reasons: I have serious doubts that Brexit is gonna be a wake up call for the EU. Most people on the continent have serious trouble understanding what exactly it is that Brits are trying to accomplish with this referendum and it seems like they don't really know either. If anything, this will be a huge argument against more direct democracy and the involvement of the general population in important matters. People are gonna use this referendum as an argument against democratic EU reform.
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Jun 20, 2016 15:29
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So if lending to peripheral countries from Germany really is forcing countries to accept EU policies, who are the people at the centre making those policies and why have they done such an awful job compared to Asia and America?
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Jun 20, 2016 16:04
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Coohoolin posted:Surely a Swiss would be the optimum impartial choice. Arglebargle III posted:So if lending to peripheral countries from Germany really is forcing countries to accept EU policies, who are the people at the centre making those policies and why have they done such an awful job compared to Asia and America?
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Jun 20, 2016 16:30
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Arglebargle III posted:So if lending to peripheral countries from Germany really is forcing countries to accept EU policies, who are the people at the centre making those policies and why have they done such an awful job compared to Asia and America? Germany is doing just fine economically. What is there for people (note: Southerners aren't people) to complain about?
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Jun 20, 2016 17:18
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I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!
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Arglebargle III posted:So if lending to peripheral countries from Germany really is forcing countries to accept EU policies, who are the people at the centre making those policies and why have they done such an awful job compared to Asia and America? Because they're under the tutorage of the IMF who after ravaging Africa and South America have now set their eyes on the EU. Germany is assisting them by using the ECB to break your loving banking sector if you try to contest their contraproductive policy packages as you could observe with Greece last year.
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Jun 20, 2016 17:21
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This seems a bit one sided.
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Jun 20, 2016 18:21
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