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found this IA poll in the GOP thread: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/06/16/poll-shows-clinton-grassley-leading-iowa/85947420/ Clinton 44 Trump 41 But importantly: quote:The PPP poll also tested the U.S. Senate race between six-term incumbent Republican Chuck Grassley and Democratic challenger Patty Judge.
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Jun 16, 2016 16:23
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comes along bort posted:The NCDP is still locked in a long-running generational/regional pissing match and the Moral Monday folks want pretty much nothing to do with them. It was so bad Hagan bypassed them entirely in 2014 for her joint fundraising committee. The NCDP is a dead gay party and moral mondays aren't helping to fix that. Cooper's lead against McCrory has already evaporated in polls. Trump's held steady with a 4-point lead in polls here. Burr has an edge against Ross. All of this casts clouds for the state supreme court race as well. If registered democrats actually voted they'd win every statewide contest of course, but that's not who votes in NC. And it's going to become harder the longer Republicans push crazy legislation and scare sensible people out of the state.
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Jun 16, 2016 21:52
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jeeeeeeeesus christ http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/pol...lNFJ/story.html quote:Republican Sen. John McCain said Thursday that President Barack Obama is ‘‘directly responsible’’ for the mass shooting in Orlando, Florida, because of the rise of the Islamic State group on the president’s watch. But he later issued a statement saying that he ‘‘misspoke.’’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBufzM__lYg who needs this alarm for 1 hour
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Jun 16, 2016 21:52
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The Whole Internet posted:Hagan bypassed the NCDP as well. She ran her own campaign, distancing herself from all the other democrats, and that didn't work out for her anyway. is the problem that registered democrats don't vote or that they vote for republicans a la West Virginia and Kentucky
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Jun 16, 2016 22:29
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pathetic little tramp posted:jeeeeeeeesus christ This link comes to mind.
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Jun 16, 2016 22:34
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pathetic little tramp posted:jeeeeeeeesus christ 
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Jun 16, 2016 23:24
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Badger of Basra posted:is the problem that registered democrats don't vote or that they vote for republicans a la West Virginia and Kentucky they just don't vote NC is affected disproportionately by young voter apathy, because the split between old and young voters is more polarized than other states. So in midterms, when young voters don't show up, NC becomes a dark red state. NC 18-28 year old turnout over time: 2008 - 10% 2010 - 3.9% 2012 - 10% 2014 - 4.9% I think that democrats should have reasonable chances of sweeping every race in NC this year, but Sanders would've done much more good for the downticket dems in this state, due to the reliance on the youth vote here. It's difficult to say if last minute fears of Trump or if a consolidation of democrats behind Clinton after the convention will help. I'm kinda hoping that the large libertarian minority in the state responds to HB2's impact on business and vote dem in the statewide races. We'll need that help, because the "family values" voters are gonna be out in full force. The Whole Internet has issued a correction as of 23:35 on Jun 16, 2016 |
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Jun 16, 2016 23:26
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john mccain probably heard enough of this in 1967
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Jun 16, 2016 23:31
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Homework Explainer posted:john mccain probably heard enough of this in 1967 harsh, but fair
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Jun 16, 2016 23:32
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thethreeman posted:found this IA poll in the GOP thread: Ads aren't even close to full swing. She was chosen as the candidate in a decently close race barely over a week ago, by the time August rolls around Judge-mania will be running wild across Iowa. I'm really obnoxiously hopeful about Iowa's prospects this election. Donald Trump didn't win the primary here, and I think Iowa is particularly able to be turned by a strong ground game, and more votes for the top-line Dem is gonna bring more votes for down ballot races. We'll turn at the very least one House seat, but my dream is coming out of 2016 with a Democratic president, senator, and three house reps (because Steve King is still gonna win).
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Jun 17, 2016 07:21
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My own prediction is that Grassley wins but all the other contested national level races go the Democrats' way in Iowa. Trump will not do well there but Iowans can split ticket pretty well so it will turn more towards a generic general election atmosphere. Thats where the issues with those two endangered Republican candidates comes in...
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Jun 17, 2016 07:24
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Grassley only being up 7 is a pretty good starting point - he won by 30 in 2010 and 40 in 2004. If nothing else he's going to have to work to defend his seat which he hasn't really had to do since he got elected.
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Jun 17, 2016 15:12
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Yoshifan823 posted:Ads aren't even close to full swing. She was chosen as the candidate in a decently close race barely over a week ago, by the time August rolls around Judge-mania will be running wild across Iowa. Didn't Iowa go for Obama in both 2008 & 2012
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Jun 17, 2016 16:23
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Perhaps in another sign that Rubio is going to run for re-election, David Jolly is about to announce he's dropping his Senate bid to focus on getting re-elected to his FL-13 House seat: https://twitter.com/SaintPetersblog/status/743834998378209281 FL-13 recently had its boundaries redrawn that has turned it bluer. When he announced he was running for Senate last year, Jolly declared "no Republican can win" his current seat. Then he found out the Democrat running for it was Charlie Crist.  Edit: https://twitter.com/SaintPetersblog/status/743861343913115648 Ballz has issued a correction as of 18:43 on Jun 17, 2016 |
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Jun 17, 2016 17:05
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Pretty sure Charlie Crist is super favored to win the seat. It's not a midterm and it's in an area of Florida where Crist is still popular. Gonna laugh my rear end of if everyone drops out and Rubio doesn't actually run though. A final bird from Lil Marco as he departs for the sweet lobbyist paycheck.
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Jun 17, 2016 19:51
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Gyges posted:Pretty sure Charlie Crist is super favored to win the seat. It's not a midterm and it's in an area of Florida where Crist is still popular. I used to live there and said all along it should have been Crist running to fill Young's seat, not Alex Sink. I have seen far too many times Florida Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory (see: election an re-election of one Rick Scott). Crist will find a way to blow this.
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Jun 17, 2016 21:35
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Gyges posted:Pretty sure Charlie Crist is super favored to win the seat. It's not a midterm and it's in an area of Florida where Crist is still popular. It was moved from likely to lean on some of the quicker to update sites, might go back to likely once some polls come out but Jolly still is an incumbent (if freshman elected in a special election) representative and has the ability to at least make it competitive. At this point you have to assume that Rubio is running for senate again. Also, since nobody pointed it out, Sharron Angle got her poo poo kicked in last week so Nevada will, indeed, be a real race too.
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Jun 18, 2016 00:36
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Gyges posted:Pretty sure Charlie Crist is super favored to win the seat. It's not a midterm and it's in an area of Florida where Crist is still popular. isn't the word that he's considering running because he wasn't commanding nearly as sweet of a lobbyist paycheck that he thought he would
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Jun 18, 2016 04:06
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back in '08 i thought crist would be a strong candidate for the republican nomination in 2012 or 2016. how the mighty have fallen
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Jun 18, 2016 04:17
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Homework Explainer posted:back in '08 i thought crist would be a strong candidate for the republican nomination in 2012 or 2016. how the mighty have fallen And Rubio done made the same mistake as Crist and Cristie before him. Shame 'bout his probable hopes for reelection, but he went and touched the black man.
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Jun 18, 2016 04:32
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rubio is a silly man, i'll be interested to see if all his friends will really be so kind as to drop out of the race. jolly seemed to already be wavering as far as jolly dropping down, did he say if he's going to fundraise again? i thought i'd read that he made some weird pact to not do his job as a candidate at one point in the senate race, dunno if that applies to this race i feel like i read that crist lives in the part of st petersburg that got redistricted into fl-13 - i wouldnt be surprised if the gop gerrymanderers knew that when they decided what parts of the city to throw into the tampa district although maybe they just took all the democratic precincts, i haven't looked. anyway, if he's gonna win anywhere i'm guessing it'd be there
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Jun 19, 2016 06:49
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GalacticAcid posted:We have our first scandal in the PA race. 
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Jun 19, 2016 15:36
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when i saw this headline i assumed it was grayson who'd said it, but no, patrick murphy apparently called rubio 'one of the most homophobic senators in this country' http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/284023-florida-dem-rubio-most-homophobic-senator-in-country that's cool quote:Murphy, who is competing for the Democratic nomination for the Florida Senate seat against Rep. Alan Grayson, accused the Republican senator of playing politics with the deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history. He said he’s received calls from people who were “appalled” at Rubio’s actions, according to the Tampa Bay Times.
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Jun 19, 2016 18:45
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Rubio is running for re-election.
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Jun 22, 2016 14:51
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FlamingLiberal posted:Rubio is running for re-election. Q-Poll has him up 7 points over both Dems. Both Dems have leads over the former R candidates. Womp Womp. Seems like a toss-up / Lean D to a Likely R.
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Jun 22, 2016 15:07
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Yeah that will likely be a win for the GOP now.
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Jun 22, 2016 15:54
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I want to talk to the roughly 10% of Florida voters who apparently can't stand "Generic Republican" and were voting for Patrick Murphy, but love Rubio. People tend to vote for incumbents and are not perfectly rational actors, but come on Florida!
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Jun 22, 2016 16:17
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https://twitter.com/_FloridaMan/status/745640347259240448
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Jun 22, 2016 16:32
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Jun 22, 2016 19:44
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very strong set of polls for republicans from Q Rubio +7/+8 like Leon said Toomey +9 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_toomey_vs_mcginty-5074.html Portman/Strickland tied http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/oh/ohio_senate_portman_vs_strickland-5386.html Note that Rubio +7/+8 (Murphy/Grayson, respectively) contrasts with PPP's -1/+2 a few days ago, in which polling was one day (6/15-6/16) versus Q's 11-day polling (6/8-6/19). Neither used a LV screen, so who knows where the difference comes from. The orlando attack took place mid-way through Q's polling (on 6/12)
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Jun 22, 2016 19:54
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Jun 22, 2016 20:03
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thethreeman posted:very strong set of polls for republicans from Q QPac's RV polls this cycle have, in general, been kind of all over the place. Getting a result where Clinton is up 7 in Florida but tied in Pennsylvania is sort of  That said, even if the poll is significantly off, I think McGinty is starting out behind Toomey at this point.
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Jun 22, 2016 21:16
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Murphy has some work cut out for him beating Rubio, but he sure has some ammunition he can use, based on the primaries, and I'm kinda doubting there will be many Clinton/Rubio voters. But, Florida, so there might just be enough morons.
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Jun 22, 2016 21:22
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Schnorkles posted:QPac's RV polls this cycle have, in general, been kind of all over the place. Getting a result where Clinton is up 7 in Florida but tied in Pennsylvania is sort of Spatula City posted:Murphy has some work cut out for him beating Rubio, but he sure has some ammunition he can use, based on the primaries, and I'm kinda doubting there will be many Clinton/Rubio voters. But, Florida, so there might just be enough morons.
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Jun 22, 2016 23:33
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Spatula City posted:Murphy has some work cut out for him beating Rubio, but he sure has some ammunition he can use, based on the primaries, and I'm kinda doubting there will be many Clinton/Rubio voters. But, Florida, so there might just be enough morons.
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Jun 22, 2016 23:34
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FlamingLiberal posted:FL Dems are one of the worst state parties. They will find a way to blow it, even if it's close (which I'm not so sure about now). otoh, Patrick Murphy is not Alex Sink, Kendrick Meek, or Charlie Crist, so the Dems actually have a shot. Unless Grayson wins, and then the seat becomes safe R. gently caress Alan Grayson, I hope he develops some kind of 100% fatal cancer.
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Jun 22, 2016 23:56
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Spatula City posted:otoh, Patrick Murphy is not Alex Sink, Kendrick Meek, or Charlie Crist, so the Dems actually have a shot. Unless Grayson wins, and then the seat becomes safe R. gently caress Alan Grayson, I hope he develops some kind of 100% fatal cancer. https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/745757781039456256 lol florida democrats FlamingLiberal posted:Yeah that was right on cue... thethreeman has issued a correction as of 01:23 on Jun 23, 2016 |
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Jun 23, 2016 00:55
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Yeah that was right on cue...
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Jun 23, 2016 01:04
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So as Trump's fortunes go down, Senate Republicans' fortunes go up. Fitting. So if Clinton and the Senate Rs both win, what happens with Garland? Lycus has issued a correction as of 01:17 on Jun 23, 2016 |
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Jun 23, 2016 01:15
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lol i was gonna say it didnt seem like likely r but this is exactly the kind of thing that comes out when you make the move up from house to senate, grayson just had his skeletons dug up earlier in the cycle if it's a wave election a lot of bad candidates will win, that doesn't show up in the polls at this point. we'll have to see. rubio seems to clearly make this a more likely republican hold outside of florida, the news from the other states falls into the 'it's just one poll' school of analysis, nothing to really emote about
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Jun 23, 2016 01:15
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