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Guys... I think we may be heading toward 5-10 Leave...
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Jun 24, 2016 04:23
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Vox Nihili posted:Guys... I think we may be heading toward 5-10 Leave... I'm staying off margin market. I think it will be fairly close on 4-5 which is just a recipe for me losing money.
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Jun 24, 2016 04:28
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Not touching the margin markets. Once-burned-twice-shy.
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Jun 24, 2016 04:33
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bbc just called it
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Jun 24, 2016 04:41
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Baddog posted:bbc just called it So did Sky News. Holy gently caress I'm glad I didn't end up betting in that market. There were three times when I almost deposited money so I could max out on it.
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Jun 24, 2016 04:44
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$700 gain today. This calls for a steak dinner.
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Jun 24, 2016 04:46
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Same. Gonna buy a few bottles of single malt with my winnings.
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Jun 24, 2016 04:47
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I threw 2 bucks of play money at NO during the swings for the hell of it. Seriously thought you guys were going to pull it through, UK. What the gently caress
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Jun 24, 2016 04:47
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I bet on the British People not making GBS threads the bed, then lighting it on fire. I deserve what I received. Only lost fifty bucks, so I can't be too upset, especially when I have a buddy who dropped $850 on No at .77 & just cashed out at 2 cents.
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Jun 24, 2016 04:53
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So when does the "how long till WW3" market open
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Jun 24, 2016 04:56
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showbiz_liz posted:So when does the "how long till WW3" market open Right after Trump wins.
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Jun 24, 2016 04:59
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I bet huge on no, steadily withdrew, and still ended up making (edit) 15 bucks. Can't complain, but fuuuuck. Sorry UK. Bullfrog has issued a correction as of 05:31 on Jun 24, 2016 |
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Jun 24, 2016 05:07
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The Joe Man posted:Right after Trump wins. gonna be a lot of droning and bombing and "boots on the ground" with hillary too. Maybe I need to load up on defense companies.
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Jun 24, 2016 05:12
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This is exactly why I didn't get involved. Too afraid Britain would gently caress it up. Which they did. Great job.
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Jun 24, 2016 05:23
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Great job, everyone.
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Jun 24, 2016 05:28
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Lost $1000, made $1000, then lost $250 rolling the bones on a surge to 5% down the stretch. What a huge waste of my time! But if it had reached 5%, boy...
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Jun 24, 2016 06:42
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But did you have fun?
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Jun 24, 2016 09:21
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 https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/746304313362788352
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Jun 24, 2016 13:19
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Just be careful with that. The rules state:quote:Any public statement(s) that Sanders supports Clinton's candidacy and/or intends to vote for her shall constitute an endorsement, unless promptly qualified by an express statement that it does not constitute an endorsement. Who knows what PredictIt considers prompt, but Bernie does get a (brief) window for a take-backsies. What would be interesting is if "clarifies" by saying that yes he's voting for her, but he's not endorsing her yet. Since he would be confirming that he's voting for her, that counts according to their rules? Fake Edit: In CNN interview, he's voting for Clinton "in all likelihood" https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/746320904641183744
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Jun 24, 2016 13:44
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lol I wouldn't touch that market with a ten foot pole with how murky the rules are combined with Bernies tenacity. Just thought you guys who are still stuck would like to know your 'out' is here
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Jun 24, 2016 13:56
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On the Colbert Show last night he was explicitly asked if he would endorse Clinton and he said "No." So maybe he changed his mind overnight but I wouldn't get back in that market
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Jun 24, 2016 13:57
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Friday morning right after the brexit bombshell seems like the perfect time to drop it if you want to minimize its coverage
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Jun 24, 2016 14:07
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It's not an endorsement to say "I'll vote for Hillary Clinton because she happens to be the candidate most likely to beat Donald Trump".
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Jun 24, 2016 14:12
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EngineerSean posted:It's not an endorsement to say "I'll vote for Hillary Clinton because she happens to be the candidate most likely to beat Donald Trump". OR MAYBE IT IS??? Welcome to hell, whoever-happens-to-still-be-in-that-market
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Jun 24, 2016 15:16
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Multi-contract chart drifting!?!?
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Jun 24, 2016 21:21
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Bernie Sanders is a piece of poo poo.
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Jun 24, 2016 21:46
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What happened?
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Jun 24, 2016 21:48
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Oh nothing, just another day where Bernie Sanders is somehow still a candidate.
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Jun 24, 2016 21:59
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Bernie owns. Sold my drop out NO shares at .63c since I didn't want to get screwed on a weird language technicality. Jumping outta the Ben Carson game (mostly; keeping 500 cheap shares for the hell of it) and shooting myself a check because I'm broke. Oh and it's going to be Warren; prices are low as hell right now. Kaine has been pumped to hell in the past few days so if you LIVE ON THE EDGE, grab those Kaine NOs. EDIT: Holy poo poo, much needed new PI change - you can now withdraw through direct deposit and don't have to wait for a check. The Joe Man has issued a correction as of 00:37 on Jun 25, 2016 |
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Jun 24, 2016 23:16
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Concerned Citizen posted:My best ever day on Predictit. The market held onto No for way too long.
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Jun 25, 2016 01:09
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Looks like there's a (read-only) API. I'm going to throw together some utilities. Basic stuff, like a terminal ticker, saving data, and setting alerts. What features would people be interested in?
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Jun 25, 2016 03:19
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SurgicalOntologist posted:Looks like there's a (read-only) API. I'm going to throw together some utilities. Basic stuff, like a terminal ticker, saving data, and setting alerts. What features would people be interested in? Very cool, looking forward to it
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Jun 25, 2016 04:17
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A price change alert would be amazing. Because I don't freak out enough as it stands, anyway.
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Jun 25, 2016 21:24
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when I looked at the API it was a little underwhelming, because it doesn't even include some of the basic site features. namely, it doesn't provide access to hourly ticker data, only daily. and someone in irc said they thought they had heard official opinion from predictit that they frown on people trying to scrape the site for data harvesting purposes, but i don't remember the specifics.
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Jun 26, 2016 02:15
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from previous PI emails about new markets, etc.:quote:Also, a reminder to all PredictIt users: Automatically scraping data from the site not only can cause slowness for all users, but also is a violation of the Terms of Service and can result in suspension of your account.
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Jun 26, 2016 02:21
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I don't imagine reading the JSON API counts as scraping. The description (linked in my last post) is in the FAQ on the PredictIt support page. And it doesn't say "...but reading it is against the TOS". There are plenty of limitations, but it is updated every second. There's no order depth, just the highest/lowest offers and last price. And there's no list of markets. But it's enough to make a basic price alert tool, which is the reason I looked into this in the first place. Of course it wouldn't be impossible to fake a full API with scraping or whatever, but I don't need to check the TOS to know that's a bad idea. Edit: Even though I think he's the most likely pick, Kaine DVP No for .56 is quite tempting. SurgicalOntologist has issued a correction as of 02:46 on Jun 26, 2016 |
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Jun 26, 2016 02:41
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The Joe Man posted:Bernie owns. Sold my drop out NO shares at .63c since I didn't want to get screwed on a weird language technicality. Jumping outta the Ben Carson game (mostly; keeping 500 cheap shares for the hell of it) and shooting myself a check because I'm broke. I've got 1000 shares of Perez because I want to believe. Mostly I just really hope it's not Kaine. The White House doesn't need any more boring white guys. Plus the upside of picking on the Latino options seems way greater for Hillary. Just a 24/7 dare for Trump to say something racist about the VP candidate. Also none of them affect the Senate calculus.
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Jun 26, 2016 02:50
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SurgicalOntologist posted:I don't imagine reading the JSON API counts as scraping. The description (linked in my last post) is in the FAQ on the PredictIt support page. And it doesn't say "...but reading it is against the TOS". Yeah I was looking into an arbitrage bot that would automatically arbitrate markets when the opportunity arose and realized they'd spot it hitting every market every minute 24/7 and get upset with me.
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Jun 26, 2016 03:09
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Trump / Clinton poll margin for June 29: B1 (Clinton 7.0+) is increasing a bunch. Is that actually likely? I've been putting money on no.
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Jun 26, 2016 04:26
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Bullfrog posted:Trump / Clinton poll margin for June 29: B1 (Clinton 7.0+) is increasing a bunch. Yes, it's fairly likely. She's been posting double or high single digit leads in a lot of polls that come out, though not all of them make it on RCP. Currently her two oldest polls are +3 and she's sitting at +5.9. If those drop off and high polls replace them, 7+ is a good bet. Edit: Don't Bet On Polls Gyges has issued a correction as of 04:49 on Jun 26, 2016 |
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Jun 26, 2016 04:45
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