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Simone Poodoin posted:Posting this here because of the million watermarks and the meme text Still wrong thread though
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Jun 21, 2016 07:43
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jyrka posted:Everyone ready for some advanced stats? Sort of interesting to see England's taken the most shots and also the fewest shots against, really makes you think
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Jun 21, 2016 11:19
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jyrka posted:How about some OPSiBwF Ag? wow look at those OPSiBwF +/-s, extremely good.
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Jun 21, 2016 14:19
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Give them the trophy now imo, save all the bother
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Jun 21, 2016 14:19
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SiBwF is OP plz IFAB nerf thx
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Jun 21, 2016 14:22
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http://www.phillyvoice.com/why-i-wont-root-us-soccer-team-tuesday-night/
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Jun 21, 2016 17:16
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 IMPECT & PACKING: THE FUTURE OF FOOTBALL ANALYTICS IS HERE Let’s start with a scenario involving Team A and Team B. Ready? Here it goes … Team A: 52% possession; total shots 18; corner kicks 7 Team B: 48% possession; total shots 14; corner kicks 5 These are the statistics we normally see during football broadcasts. Do these numbers tell you anything? Can you tell who won the game? Well, Team A was Brazil and Team B was Germany in the 2014 World Cup semifinal. Germany advanced, thanks to a historic 7:1 victory. Yet according to the stats, looks like it was a close one. Football statistics that don’t reflect what happened on the pitch suck, it’s that simple. Counting stuff and dumping the raw data in front of the audience without any further analysis, is what TV has been doing for decades. There are niche shows and websites where tactics and stats get broken down, but data needs to be processed and evaluated. Analytical content therefore goes online after the games ended. The casual TV audience doesn’t care anymore at that point and sites like Spielverlagerung.com and Statsbomb.com aren’t exactly mainstream to begin with. Big websites like Kicker, SportBild or Spox are all about transfer rumours, slideshows and interviews. Analytics articles are long, hard to get and simply create less traffic than clickbait stuff like: “Pogba liked FC Barcelona on Instagram. Transfer imminent?”. In 2015 Stefan Reinartz (retired in 2016, formerly Bayer Leverkusen, three caps for Germany) and Jens Hegeler (under contract at Hertha BSC) identified this problem. Both are/were defensive midfielders. Throughout their careers they became annoyed that media outlets and coaches evaluated their performances with tools and methods that don’t reflect the actual value they added to their team. A “shutdown” cornerback like Richard Sherman can be a star in the NFL thanks to interceptions, broken up plays and tackles. “Lock down NBA defenders” like Bruce Bowen and Dennis Rodman can prove their worth with steals, blocks and rebounds. Football has goals and assists, that’s it. Defensive midfielders who can’t score like Ballack or hit free kicks like Pirlo, are the unsung heros in football. They do crucial work that doesn’t show up in any stat category. In the example above, Vidal wins the ball from Juve’s Pogba and hits Coman on the flank. Vidal’s play was the key to that goa and also prevented a dangerous counter attack, but Coman and Müller are the only ones who earned meaningful stats on that play. Why are the usual stats no good? Well, the usual stats aren’t bad per se and do contain information. But they are all about quantity, not quality. “Possession” for example means nothing in a vacuum. A lovely through ball by Thiago takes only a split second to perform. That pass has a negative impact on Bayern’s possession rating, even though it might send Lewandowski on a breakaway.  “Total shots” doesn’t mean much either, a close range shot by Lionel Messi counts just as one shot, just like a desperate effort from 35 meters out by Heiko Westermann. And “corner kick totals” have a different value to each team. Tiki Taka teams like Spain or Barcelona often don’t even send crosses into the box from a corner, while physical teams like Liverpool or England heavily rely on set pieces. “Completed pass percentage” is also flawed if you don’t assess the risk/reward scenario of every single pass. During the 2015/16 Bundesliga season the pass completion rate of Mats Hummels (85%) was worse than Sokratis’ numbers (88%). Is Hummels the inferior passer of the two? There are some more advanced metrics around like Expected Goals (ExpG) and Total Shot Rate, but to be honest they might be too complicated for the average viewer. And I actually see a huge flaw in ExpG, since the stat suggests that a shot from a certain area of the field has a certain chance of going in. Well, everybody who’s played football himself, knows that weather, pitch quality, physical condition or even the type of shoe you wear can alter a shot greatly. There are no identical situations in football. Let’s not forget that up to 30 million Germans watch Die Mannschaft play, so you need a metric that is easy to explain and understand, since grandma’s and kids watch too. In the USA the majority of the public knows what a sack or a rebound is, while I know few people here in Germany who know what ExpG is. What does that new metric do? All of Impect’s metrics are based on the idea that every play needs to be assessed in terms of “quality”. A team can only score, if it can move the ball past defenders (“Gegner überspielt,” or “defenders beaten by the pass”). Beating defenders adds quality to a play, the more defenders you take out, the higher the quality of a play. Can’t argue with that. The big breakthrough here is that “beating opponents” is an objective stat that can assess quality without relying on subjective opinion, you either beat the defender or you don’t. The defending team obviously tries to prevent all that, so a low number in the “Überspielt werden” (getting beaten) category tells you how good a team is at defending. To analyse every play as a separate entity and adjust for quality is genius. In this video (German only, but the illustrations speak for themselves) you can get an idea how it works. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYEuTLwFSAk It all comes down to the number of defenders in your way before and after a certain play, this logic can also be applied to dribbling events, turnovers and interceptions as well. In the above Vidal example, he wins back the ball in a situation where Bayern was pretty vulnerable, that counts for more than an interception with six Bayern teammates behind him. The total of “opponents outplayed” during a game is called “Packing-Rate”. Impect further determined that beating defenders is more valuable to an offense than getting the ball past pressing opponent strikers. The number of deep defenders taken out per game is called “IMPECT”, just like the company. Why are those new metrics better? Let’s take a look at the Brazil vs. Germany game again, but this time through the eyes of Reinartz and Hegeler’s system:  The Packing-Rate metric shows that Germany took out 61 more players than Brazil. A 15% swing in favor of Die Mannschaft, yet that doesn’t explain a 7:1 butt-whipping. The Impect numbers are more conclusive, Germany was much better in beating defenders than the Selecao. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0wDsWbPH7k Stop this clip at 5:35 and look at the Brazilians standing between Kroos and Müller, you can identify center backs Dante and David Luiz pretty easily (hint: big hair). When a pass gets completed behind opponent’s center backs, it creates a dangerous situation almost every single time. The CB’s are the last line of defense, getting past them is the “money play”. Evaluated by old metrics, Müller would earn a “completed pass” here. Kroos’ lovely ball would also show up as “one completed pass”. Klose gets all the glory, while Müller and Kroos don’t get much love from the stat keeper. You see, the old metrics simply don’t work; instead, let Impect tell you the real story of this particular play.  Impect’s metrics don’t care that Klose converted from close range. The “heavy lifting” on that play was done by Kroos and Müller – Klose only had to punch it in. Klose gets a +1 for securing Müllers pass, that’s it. Any replacement level Bundesliga player can score from that spot, but only few players in the world can hit Müller in stride like Toni Kroos did on that play. Big difference. Kroos earns +4 in “Gegner überspielt” for his pass to Müller, just like “TM13” gets +4 in “Überspielen ermöglichen” for securing this valuable through ball. Müller receives an extra +1 for his pass to Klose that took Marcelo out of the play. Brazil’s defense “earns” -5 in terms of “Überspielt werden”. The MVP of that sequence clearly is Müller, who found a pocket of space, ran into it while staying onside, created a passing lane for Kroos (+4), controlled the pass and dished it out to Klose (+1). Finally, there is a stat that can really show you who deserves credit. http://bundesligafanatic.com/impect-packing-the-future-of-football-analytics-is-here/
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Jun 21, 2016 17:25
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Based on that statue, I'd say Ronaldo is packing the most
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Jun 21, 2016 17:37
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I'm not gonna read that but I know that it's bad bc packing basically is the only stat german TV pundits have been talking about during this EC and it's making me mad
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Jun 21, 2016 17:44
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This would have been bad if it was because he wanted Klinsmann to fail or whatever, but since he just loves Messi, it's well beyond bad.
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Jun 21, 2016 17:56
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TheBigAristotle posted:Based on that statue, I'd say Ronaldo is packing the most
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Jun 21, 2016 18:09
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TheBigAristotle posted:Based on that statue, I'd say Ronaldo is packing the most On first analysis experts thought it was Hope Solo, but recent evidence has seen the crown returned to Ronaldo.
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Jun 21, 2016 19:17
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You didn't even upload the picture of the author you failure
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Jun 22, 2016 07:39
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Cotton Hill's let himself go
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Jun 22, 2016 13:20
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Blue Star Error posted:Cotton Hill's let himself go Suqit has started taking care of himself
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Jun 22, 2016 17:18
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http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=3262641&mc=24&forum_id=2
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Jun 22, 2016 18:00
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thanks for the link, CYAN
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Jun 22, 2016 18:11
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St Evan Echoes posted:thanks for the link, CYAN huh?
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Jun 22, 2016 18:21
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read the thread you posted
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Jun 22, 2016 18:24
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St Evan Echoes posted:read the thread you posted yikes. racism is bad
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Jun 22, 2016 18:30
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Jun 22, 2016 23:07
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https://www.facebook.com/format.bristol/videos/1781912015377490/ lol
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Jun 23, 2016 03:19
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Wrong thread.
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Jun 23, 2016 07:37
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http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/...n-a7095491.htmlquote:Why England should chase Jurgen Klinsmann to take over from Roy Hodgson
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Jun 23, 2016 13:11
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Jun 23, 2016 14:37
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He's better than Roy
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Jun 23, 2016 16:01
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lol I've been to that Timbuk2 club plenty of times back when I was living in bristol, I'd totally go to that night on the strength of that video haha
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Jun 23, 2016 17:20
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lol can you imagine the melt downs if england appointed a german
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Jun 23, 2016 17:21
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http://nerdist.com/why-sporting-kansas-city-is-fan-magic-like-hogwarts-for-sports/
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Jun 25, 2016 21:23
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http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/06/25/the_least_xenophobic_euro_2016_team_to_root_for.html
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Jun 26, 2016 01:48
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Jermaine Dildoe posted:http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/06/25/the_least_xenophobic_euro_2016_team_to_root_for.html Wrap it up, this thread is over
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Jun 26, 2016 02:24
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Jermaine Dildoe posted:http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/06/25/the_least_xenophobic_euro_2016_team_to_root_for.html Jesus loving christ
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Jun 26, 2016 02:38
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Jermaine Dildoe posted:http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/06/25/the_least_xenophobic_euro_2016_team_to_root_for.html quote:If you really want your footballing support to make a statement about your politics and let people know that you support the plight of European migrants i do not.
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Jun 26, 2016 02:40
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Jermaine Dildoe posted:http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/06/25/the_least_xenophobic_euro_2016_team_to_root_for.html FIFA please suspend Slate for mixing politics and football, thanks.
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Jun 26, 2016 04:00
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Jermaine Dildoe posted:http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/06/25/the_least_xenophobic_euro_2016_team_to_root_for.html oh wow, this has it all: bad politics, factual errors, and snide commentary cause they watched the women's world up or whatever
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Jun 26, 2016 07:54
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Jermaine Dildoe posted:http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/06/25/the_least_xenophobic_euro_2016_team_to_root_for.html ISIS could really gain some positive PR by beheading everyone at Slate
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Jun 26, 2016 11:48
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That really is beautiful. Plus if you scroll down, the next article is called How Messi Compares with LeBron. I think he concludes that LeBron is better because he Won The Play-Offs or something.
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Jun 26, 2016 12:23
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but is LeBron better than Drogba?
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Jun 26, 2016 12:40
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Jermaine Dildoe posted:http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/06/25/the_least_xenophobic_euro_2016_team_to_root_for.html That's a doozy.
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Jun 26, 2016 12:46
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Caring about soccerball opinions smh
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Jun 26, 2016 12:46
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