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I'm here in FL and I'm going to always automatically assume that a Dem in a statewide race is going to lose. The state Dems running Alex Sink twice against Scott and losing is still insane to me. I get that they were both off years, but jesus.
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Jun 26, 2016 00:38
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FlamingLiberal posted:I'm here in FL and I'm going to always automatically assume that a Dem in a statewide race is going to lose. The state Dems running Alex Sink twice against Scott and losing is still insane to me. I get that they were both off years, but jesus. Sink ran against Scott once, Charlie Crist lost the second time. Sink then ran and lost a Congressional race to political unknown David Jolly. Jolly's opponent in this year's election? One Charlie Crist. 
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Jun 26, 2016 01:07
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That's the state party in a nutshell. The problem is that they have been out of power for something like 20 years now, and have had so little statewide success, that there really aren't a lot of candidates you can choose from. The Senate candidates are a good example of this.
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Jun 26, 2016 01:11
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alex sink basically had nothing to do with that district, though, from a cursory look at her wiki page (chairman of the hillsborough county united way maybe??? but i think most of that district is pinellas?), and crist seems to live in the heavily democratic downtown st pete's part of the district that just got un-gerrymandered back in, which was what made jolly declare the district unwinnable and gently caress off to the senate primary in the first place crist will probably actually win that house race, honestly. especially if jolly keeps up the weird-rear end pledge he made in the dying days of his senate campaign where he said he wouldn't be fundraising any more i get that murphy just had a bad news day but he raises a bunch of money and won a slightly-more-repubican-than-national-average district a few times, which is about as good a resume for winning this fl-sen campaign as anyone could offer. i reserve the right to change my mind if it turns out yallre right and he's an awful-rear end campaigner, it's happened to successful house members before when they made the transition from AA to AAA but if florida dems decide they love the guy who invests in eritrean child labor because he's willing to not be a cetnrist* so much that they're happy to let rubio dunk all over him in front of the general floridian electorate and watch them send someone a hell of a lot more right-wing than patrick murphy to the senate, then i don't know if it's the democratic establishment who deserve the blame *i really appreciate that he brought drone strike victims to testify in congress, though - perhaps he should've loving stayed in his blue district where he underperformed relative to obama and kept doing good like that instead of embarking on a vanity project to lose the senate race edit im out of my element though so feel free to educate me on why im wrong
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Jun 26, 2016 01:42
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My predictions: Dem retentions: CO Dem loses: NV Republican retentions: PA, FL, AZ, NC, MO, GE, IA Republican losses: IL, WI, OH, NH Nevada- Republicans have a stronger candidate who has his own image separate from generic-R. The fact that he can use "Sheriff" in front of his name in addition to Representative is good for him too, as is his experience retaining his swing seat in 2012. Obviously Hispanic turnout in this Trump/presidential cycle is the x-factor in this state where people do not split their tickets very much. Colorado- Not sure why people are even listing this race, at this point, the Republicans lack a good candidate to put up against an incumbent who hasn't alienated himself from voters, not to mention all the stuff I said about Nevada voters above as its all true in CO as well. Iowa- People mention this because of the Supreme Court thing but as news of it fades I think it will matter less. I also think that stuff like the recent tie case killing DACA/DAPA will show Grassley's base why exactly it was the right thing to do. Other than that one issue people always loved Grassley and I think that that will carry him over the line by a comfortable margin. Missouri- This is one of those places where Trump's message should play stronger than it does in other areas so he won't be such an anchor around the candidate's neck. MO has been trending red anyway, the incumbent hasn't done anything to piss his state off and frankly I think this race is wishful thinking among people who are predicting a Republican national nightmare in November. Georgia- Georgia's trending blue every year and I'd honestly put it down as a dark horse Hillary state (its certainly good money if you are looking to bet on upsets in November) but I don't see this race being all that competitive. With the power of incumbency you'd have to expect that this senate race would be an even bigger poo poo storm than the national one in regards to the Republican candidate versus the Democratic one and I just don't see that happening either. North Carolina- For a long time Burr was doing more poorly in the polls for this famously "cursed" seat in 2010 than he had any right to but in the end he shored his numbers up and by the time the actual election came about nobody had any doubt as to who would be winning the seat. I suspect that that is going to happen this cycle too. I can't recall who the Democrats even got to run here but I don't think their candidate recruitment was all that good. Arizona- McCain's been around a long time but that doesn't necessarily mean he's invulnerable. Political institutions lose every cycle. He also has a really tough opponent. That said, I don't think that he will lose in the state that eagerly backed Jan Brewer for the sole reason of her (later found to be largely unconstitutional) immigration legislation, repeatedly re-elects Sheriff Joe and other things like that. I don't think Trump is an albatross in this very racially polarized state. Florida- I had been ready to pencil this one in as a loss until Rubio came back to the seat. He's still going to have a hard fight on his hands against an amazing campaigner but there's reason to believe that Florida isn't going to be one of those parts of the country that turns into a Republican blood-bath. There's stuff like the northern "southern" half of the state not giving a drat about Trump racism, a lot of the state's hispanic population being Rubio's own Dade county Cuban base and perhaps some of those retired New Yorkers being more used to a Trump-styled campaign. There are some X factors though. Rubio has to get past Beruff in the primary and while I would be shocked if he didn't I would also not be shocked if Beruff started flinging poo poo everywhere in his attempts to win. That could be damaging to the brand and with Florida's comparatively late primaries there might not be enough time to repair before the general. This is a self-inflicted wound, Beruff got into the race late and probably never would have if Rubio had sought his seat in the after-math of losing his presidential campaign, instead of waiting months. There's also the fact that Patrick Murphy really is a great candidate who is good at raising money, has an excellent bio and is an adept public speaker. Pennsylvania- There are a lot of people out here who are really, really bitter about the economic direction this country has taken since the 1970s. They aren't Toomey's base but they are Trump's and I expect they will give Pat a free ride this fall. Add to that his own base of economic conservatives and the fact that he's done a decent job of pretending to be moderate after getting elected and you have a Republican retention. Also McGuinty a poo poo. Only issues? You have to be really really really lovely for people to split ticket here, even shittier than KMcG, and I think that Hillary will be winning so that gives Toomey a comparatively narrow window. Ohio- This race is incredibly similar to the PA race, with the main difference being that Ted Strickland is a much better candidate than Katie McGuinty. He actually looked like he was doing a horrible job fundraising in the primary but has since picked up the pace and narrowed the gap with Portland. This race, along with the ones before and after it, are honestly the only three I really have trouble calling. All of them would be listed as pure toss-up if I had the ability to do so. New Hampshire- Kelly Ayotte is a good candidate who'd be romping in normally-swingy New Hampshire if she weren't being challenged by the popular current governor, Maggie Hassan. I'd still put her down to win it too, if it weren't for Donald Trump. His values are not, I believe, New Hampshirite values (even though he won a plurality in the state's primary) and despite the state's ability to ticket split it just won't be enough to make up for turn out issues. Wisconsin- Ron Johnson should have been able to cruise in this red trending state which has economic issues that should make it appealing to Trump, despite the large presidential primary loss there. As is, he spent the past six years not giving a drat about PR and is going to lose his race to the man he originally replaced, because of it. Illinois- Kirk has spent a political life-time or two winning in a blue seat but this is the end of the line. A bad top of the ticket, a very partisan state, a presidential year turnout and a very good opponent are going to team up to take this guy down. This seat was always going to be hard to retain and while a stroke would normally just give a candidate pity points in this case it meant he had two fewer years to go out to voters and show that he really was independent-minded and willing to vote the way Illinois wanted him to on big issues. It is, I suppose, possible for Johnson to fix his issues and somehow win Wisconsin but thats not the case here. If I were Paddy Power I'd honestly just write down any Duckworth-related bets as a loss right now. Lets face it, if this wasn't a flip no-one would even bother discussing the race. I also think that Democrats retain the White House so that means a blue senate. And worse for Republicans, there's more places on this list for them to gently caress up and under-perform than there are places for them to over-perform. I think they'll lose more than the 3 cumulative seats listed here, the only question is which other seats will they be.
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Jun 26, 2016 02:55
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Rubio couldn't even get over 50% of the vote in 2010, a very good year for the Republicans. He got just barely more votes than Rick Scott did. 6 years later he's running in what looks to be turning into a Democratic Presidential blow out. Further he's gone against the Trump god king and severely tarnished his image both with the Republican base and with the average citizen. Meanwhile Murphy's only knock seems to be that expose that came out a few days ago. It really doesn't seem to be enough to harm him too much and there's loads of video of Rubio talking about how he hate the Senate and is done with it. Attack ads on Rubio are going to be brutal, like him toadying up to Big Don while talking about dick sizes. So long as Florida Democrats don't loose their goddamn minds and go with Grayson, Florida is at worst Lean Democrat right now. Probably boosted by the minor unfucking of districts by the court for this cycle which will give the Democrats several House seats. Gyges has issued a correction as of 03:03 on Jun 26, 2016 |
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Jun 26, 2016 03:01
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it has to be said, though, that rubio won 49-30 (crist)-20 (meek) in a three-way race and i feel like more than 3% of crist's support would've gone for the hispanic republican over the black democrat
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Jun 26, 2016 03:06
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oystertoadfish posted:it has to be said, though, that rubio won 49-30 (crist)-20 (meek) in a three-way race and i feel like more than 3% of crist's support would've gone for the hispanic republican over the black democrat This is true, but it was also the 2010 Republican wave and Florida was very pissed at Obama at the time. Rick Scott and Marco Rubio are both bad candidates who barely made it into office thanks to midterms.
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Jun 26, 2016 03:25
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i put my HONOR on the line and said rubio is probably maybe kinda likely to lose this election, but i do think he would've gotten a majority in a two-way race in 2010. it's funny, though - back then he was the tea party outsider, now he's the hated insider. it's almost as if all of this is empty bullshit positioning, essentially professional wrestling anyway i kinda think polls will track toward dems in the late months of the election, even though that hasn't happened in recent presidential election years, and things will start to look better for democrats partly it's because this phase of the 2016 elections just feels, to me, subjectively, weirdly like a mirror image of a similar moment in the 2014 elections, where democrats were still putting together optimistic congress/senate maps and talking about good outcomes based on current polling, but discussion of a republican wave was never far from the surface - but that's completely subjective, so don't take it too seriously
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Jun 26, 2016 03:30
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Decided to check on the progress of Jim Barksdale, Democratic Senate candidate for Georgia He has 523 Twitter followers
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Jun 26, 2016 18:55
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But how many does his hat have?
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Jun 26, 2016 20:56
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Slate Action posted:Decided to check on the progress of Jim Barksdale, Democratic Senate candidate for Georgia Gyges posted:But how many does his hat have? Lmao his logo owns 
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Jun 26, 2016 21:48
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The last legislative candidate I recall who ran a hat-centric campaign did not do so well: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schaeffer_Cox
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Jun 26, 2016 23:08
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Schaeffer Cox sounds like a gay porn actor name.
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Jun 26, 2016 23:45
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Kazak_Hstan posted:The last legislative candidate I recall who ran a hat-centric campaign did not do so well: Counterpoint: 
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Jun 27, 2016 00:13
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I would vote like hell for that purple getup.
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Jun 27, 2016 01:10
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The Kochs are putting $2.7m behind this in Ohio. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JkzvTjLHAo
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Jun 27, 2016 03:31
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Joementum posted:The Kochs are putting $2.7m behind this in Ohio. I don't think I'm ever going to get tired of the attack ads that show what an economic monster a former governor was by filling their ad with stats about how lovely the economy was in 2008/2009/2010. loving no money and no jobs in January of 2009? What an incompetent buffoon.
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Jun 27, 2016 03:41
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https://twitter.com/ErikVidor/status/747829897339383808
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Jun 28, 2016 17:41
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Finegold laying the smackdown
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Jun 28, 2016 19:36
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FlamingLiberal posted:Finegold laying the smackdown The fact that he lost his job at all is an indicator of just how bad 2010 was for Democrats.
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Jun 28, 2016 19:41
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Honestly, those are not great for the GOP, but other than Wisconsin those are not total disasters. They are competitive in every single race and actually outperforming the fundamentals in NH and PA.
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Jun 28, 2016 20:32
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Honestly, those are not great for the GOP, but other than Wisconsin those are not total disasters. They are competitive in every single race and actually outperforming the fundamentals in NH and PA. Or conversely they're really, really bad because if they're only up 2 in AZ in late June, it indicates things could be really bad when the campaigns get going in earnest in the Fall, especially if Trump is as poisonous to the downballot as it appears he will be. If that's the case it might put some of the likely GOP seats in play.
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Jun 28, 2016 20:44
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apparently the RNC is spending a couple million in Missouri, which suggests they think the Dems have an actual shot there, and they must engage in defensive action to protect the seat.
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Jun 28, 2016 21:36
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Honestly, those are not great for the GOP, but other than Wisconsin those are not total disasters. They are competitive in every single race and actually outperforming the fundamentals in NH and PA. They're not (yet) disasters, but Arizona and Iowa being at all competitive is in itself very bad for Republicans as those weren't really on the target lists.
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Jun 28, 2016 21:44
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https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/747889617383329792 Will be very interesting to see how Senate candidates campaign down-ticket regarding trade/jobs given the Pres candidates are flipped from the down-ticket positions - Trump strongly opposing free trade, while Hillary has a history of aligning with Obama on supporting it. Seems to me like neither side will have much incentive to bring it up Spatula City posted:apparently the RNC is spending a couple million in Missouri, which suggests they think the Dems have an actual shot there, and they must engage in defensive action to protect the seat.  I just had to look this race up to remind myself who the likely challenger even was. No polling on RCP since March
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Jun 28, 2016 21:47
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I really hope we vote Toomey's rear end out of office but if I had to pick between him or McCain I'd want to see McCain gone more. As long as there's a Dem POTUS and Senate majority I'll be happy though. Clinton would get to confirm a shitload of vacancies (unless the GOP rushes them after the election with whatever nominees Obama made) and we'd get to watch Ryan get attacked by his fringe party members in the House while the Senate throws legislation at them to vote on as the WH called on Ryan to stop causing gridlock in Congress.
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Jun 28, 2016 21:49
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evilweasel posted:They're not (yet) disasters, but Arizona and Iowa being at all competitive is in itself very bad for Republicans as those weren't really on the target lists. Grassley's last even remotely competitive race was in 1980.
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Jun 29, 2016 00:25
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I like how despite Toomey's unfavorables, he's still winning by 10 points Free Sestak
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Jun 29, 2016 02:01
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DOOP posted:I like how despite Toomey's unfavorables, he's still winning by 10 points 1 point?
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Jun 29, 2016 02:05
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Cthulhu Dreams posted:1 point? I can't read Thanks Feingold
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Jun 29, 2016 02:14
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apparently what convinced donors that johnson was too dumb to breathe, let alone win this election, was he told them that opposing a vote on garland was going to win the election for him you can see why that caused even republican eyes to roll out of heads
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Jun 29, 2016 02:18
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has anyone polled Illinois lately or do they assume it's a foregone conclusion?
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Jun 29, 2016 02:42
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El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn will be the Republican nominee for US Senate in Colorado. He has no money, but was backed by the Senate Conservatives Fund, endorsed by Ted Cruz, Ben Sasse, and Mike Lee.
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Jun 29, 2016 02:56
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And he was probably the best of them too, unless CSU guy was still around. What a pathetic set of choices.
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Jun 29, 2016 05:49
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Badger of Basra posted:has anyone polled Illinois lately or do they assume it's a foregone conclusion? Internals have duckworth up big. The whole rauner disaster is killing kirk, let alone some trump damage (since kirks very open about opposing trump). And kirks pushing for a vote on garland too, it's just not helping Edit: hell, his last three tweets are pro lgbt, pro gun control, pro abortion mastershakeman has issued a correction as of 13:06 on Jun 29, 2016 |
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Jun 29, 2016 13:03
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mastershakeman posted:Internals have duckworth up big. The whole rauner disaster is killing kirk, let alone some trump damage (since kirks very open about opposing trump). And kirks pushing for a vote on garland too, it's just not helping It kind of has to suck to just go all-in on "I'm really a Dem, guys seriously!" and still get crushed.
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Jun 29, 2016 14:17
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Like every other youtube video I try to watch gives me some dumb Toomey ad. IT BEGINS
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Jul 1, 2016 07:19
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axeil posted:It kind of has to suck to just go all-in on "I'm really a Dem, guys seriously!" and still get crushed. It didn't work for Specter and it wouldn't work for Kirk.
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Jul 1, 2016 23:11
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The AFL-CIO has launched its first anti-Toomey blitz.
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Jul 5, 2016 23:26
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