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Not a Step posted:Sanders won over 40% of the vote and more than 20 state contests. Thats not exactly losing badly, and I would ge genuinely surprised if Silver had predicted him doing anything near that well back in January. He lost super bad.
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Jun 22, 2016 22:41
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Bip Roberts posted:He lost super bad. Keep telling yourself that champ. Whatever helps you sleep at night. But for a primary 55/45 is pretty close. MOM lost superbad. Bernie had a respectable showing.
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Jun 22, 2016 23:07
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Not a Step posted:Keep telling yourself that champ. Whatever helps you sleep at night. But for a primary 55/45 is pretty close. MOM lost superbad. Bernie had a respectable showing. Yeah, even Silver and co think he exceeded expectations. I think anyone has to agree that while Bernie lost in the end and Clinton was playing prevent defense the entire he still did tons better than everyone expected. People were expecting him to get wrecked and instead he demonstrated IMHO that a very progressive candidate with more outreach/appeal to minorities could very well win the Democratic nomination.
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Jun 23, 2016 07:28
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Goatman Sacks posted:At least he was dead-on about how bad Bernie was going to lose. He essentially avoided making margin forecasts there other than "Hillary is going to win" until the thing was already effectively over. In his debrief he talked about how Sanders exceeded expectations. Pretty tepid, IMO.
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Jun 23, 2016 08:33
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Goatman Sacks posted:At least he was dead-on about how bad Bernie was going to lose. 
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Jun 23, 2016 08:39
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wasn't his new "polls plus" model absolute dogshit garbage too?
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Jun 23, 2016 11:55
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Condiv posted:wasn't his new "polls plus" model absolute dogshit garbage too? what's the "plus" for? gut feeling? ha-ha-ha.
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Jun 23, 2016 12:03
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mike12345 posted:what's the "plus" for? gut feeling? ha-ha-ha. iirc, it was the averaged polls plus a weight based on endorsements
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Jun 23, 2016 12:11
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Not a Step posted:Keep telling yourself that champ. Whatever helps you sleep at night. But for a primary 55/45 is pretty close. MOM lost superbad. Bernie had a respectable showing. Not for a head to head primary
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Jun 23, 2016 13:24
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it assigned arbitrary idiot points to endorsements depending on whether it was coming from a senator or a governor. like 1 point for a senator and 5 for a governor. completely stupid
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Jun 23, 2016 14:22
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Nate Silver & Co. have been really off this election cycle for things that actually mattered and couldn't already be easily predicted, which is not a great look when you're trying to build a predictive model for election results. I think having the full time blog and needing to add content every single day have led to some really embarrassing heat-of-the-moment analyses that maybe wouldn't have happened in 2012.
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Jun 23, 2016 14:27
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Not a Step posted:Keep telling yourself that champ. Whatever helps you sleep at night. But for a primary 55/45 is pretty close. MOM lost superbad. Bernie had a respectable showing. Getting crushed by Super Tuesday in a primary with basically only one competitor is not pretty close. Playing zombie campaign and duping kids out of :27bux: doesn't change that.
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Jun 24, 2016 07:20
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why does 538 bother with the MLB predictions sidebar when they're all p much coin tosses
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Jun 24, 2016 18:07
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the best part of this election is seeing everyone realize nate silver is just making poo poo up this election like everyone else
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Jun 24, 2016 20:18
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Condiv posted:iirc, it was the averaged polls plus a weight based on endorsements so they called old people on landlines and then weighted more heavily for people who had endorsements, which is a great way to handle polling in 2016 when nobody under 60 has a landline and both bernie and trump had essentially no endorsements, but many people interested in voting for them  nate
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Jun 24, 2016 20:19
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Tayter Swift posted:why does 538 bother with the MLB predictions sidebar when they're all p much coin tosses
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Jun 24, 2016 22:27
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I'm gonna need this as a 3D line graph tia
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Jun 25, 2016 06:17
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baseball is more important than politics
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Jun 25, 2016 06:43
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http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ merry christmas thread
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Jul 1, 2016 05:31
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48.8% sounds about right for Clinton but 42.0% for Trump seems low and 7.9% sounds too high for Johnson. On the other hand, he's pretty high already. 
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Jul 1, 2016 06:16
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johnson has about as good an opportunity as any third party candidate's had since perot by that i mean he might actually get about 2%
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Jul 1, 2016 07:44
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comes along bort posted:johnson has about as good an opportunity as any third party candidate's had since perot They talked about this concept with Rubio, but I think it will apply to Johnson in the general: he doesn't have a base of support. Not many people dislike him, but no one would claim him as their first choice.
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Jul 2, 2016 04:24
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Sebadoh Gigante posted:They talked about this concept with Rubio, but I think it will apply to Johnson in the general: he doesn't have a base of support. Not many people dislike him, but no one would claim him as their first choice. If you're a leftist he's worse than Hillary or Trump.
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Jul 2, 2016 05:20
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Mukaikubo posted:http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ loving  Nate "Double Down" Silver
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Jul 2, 2016 05:46
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Jewel Repetition posted:If you're a leftist he's worse than Hillary or Trump. "But I side with .com has him second after Bernie!"
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Jul 2, 2016 17:02
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Is this the catch-all thread for election prediction numbers blogs, or are we focused on Nate Silver's special brand? The Princeton guy has HRC an even stronger favorite than ol' Natedawg does. Sam Wong posted:Currently, the probability of a Hillary Clinton victory in November is 85 percent, based on polls alone. Is there anyone with an attempted "polls-only" forecast that currently has HRC less than 70% to win?
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Jul 2, 2016 20:00
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Kazak_Hstan posted:Getting crushed by Super Tuesday in a primary with basically only one competitor is not pretty close. Playing zombie campaign and duping kids out of :27bux: doesn't change that. A zombie campaign that still went 55/45. How terrible is Clinton that a no hoper zombie campaign powered by college kids pizza money and which was effectively dead after the first Super Tuesday still managed to take several states and end up 55/45 in the pledged delegate count? Hillary is a terrible candidate. Imagine if she had been up against someone with some real clout and planning ability.
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Jul 2, 2016 20:54
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that already happened and he was elected to two consecutive terms
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Jul 2, 2016 20:56
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Not a Step posted:A zombie campaign that still went 55/45. How terrible is Clinton that a no hoper zombie campaign powered by college kids pizza money and which was effectively dead after the first Super Tuesday still managed to take several states and end up 55/45 in the pledged delegate count? Bernie did basically the worst of any contested democratic primary since the 70's.
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Jul 2, 2016 20:59
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Bip Roberts posted:Bernie did basically the worst of any contested democratic primary since the 70's. but he didn't literally lose everything so he won, if you think about it
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Jul 2, 2016 21:13
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Al! posted:that already happened and he was elected to two consecutive terms  Bip Roberts posted:Bernie did basically the worst of any contested democratic primary since the 70's. How many contested democratic primaries has there been since the 70s?
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Jul 2, 2016 21:17
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Before HRC blew it open after California, Bernie was trailing her by about the same percentages as Cruz lost to Trump, which nobody considered close at any point. I voted for the Bernman myself and it'd be cool if he won but he didn't have the juice and my delusional facebook friends with their Bernie math projections just became super pathetic and sad after awhile.
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Jul 2, 2016 21:18
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Not a Step posted:
1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000, 2008, 2016. Bernie did better than Bill Bradley so that's good.
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Jul 2, 2016 21:25
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Bip Roberts posted:1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000, 2008, 2016. Bernie did better than Bill Bradley so that's good. And he did better than Jerry Brown, Paul Tsongas, Bob Kerrey, Tom Harkin, Jessie Jackson, Al Gore, Dick Gephardt, Paul Simon, Gary Hart, Jessie Jackson again, Ted Kennedy, Mo Udall, Jerry Brown again, George Wallace, Frank Church, Henry Jackson, and then 1972 was too much of a clusterfuck to even try to parse. So, he did better than any other second place Democratic primary contestant except for Hillary Clinton herself, who was up against the legendary Obama. I don't think you thought your response out very well.
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Jul 2, 2016 21:50
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Not a Step posted:And he did better than Jerry Brown, Paul Tsongas, Bob Kerrey, Tom Harkin, Jessie Jackson, Al Gore, Dick Gephardt, Paul Simon, Gary Hart, Jessie Jackson again, Ted Kennedy, Mo Udall, Jerry Brown again, George Wallace, Frank Church, Henry Jackson, and then 1972 was too much of a clusterfuck to even try to parse. lol nice math
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Jul 2, 2016 21:53
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Bernie ran a pretty good campaign that played to his core strengths, which were inherently few, and dodged his core weaknesses as a candidate, which were pretty legion Hillary ran a self-crippled campaign that had to avoid going nuclear on Bernie while still coming off strong enough to prevent mass defections; in this context, and especially given the climate, she did a mediocre but mostly competent job having said that, if she'd been up against Biden or anyone else remotely better than a 74 year old socialist who forfeited the entire South out of necessity, I think the GOP wouldn't be the only ones dreading the convention
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Jul 2, 2016 22:02
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Bip Roberts posted:Bernie did basically the worst of any contested democratic primary since the 70's. Are you using some weird definition of contested or are you just illiterate? This is some next level idiocy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2000 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_1992
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Jul 2, 2016 22:02
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Why should Clinton have spent any more time, money, or goodwill with the more liberal wing of the party sledgehammering Sanders after Super Tuesday? So she could win 60-40? So she could do better in Democratic must-win caucuses like Utah and Alaska? There is no benchmark Clinton could have hit that would change any minds among the current Bernouts. Anyone who is defending Sanders' campaign as competitive today would be making the same arguments if he had lost 70-30. She reached the point of diminishing returns and pivoted to the general election, as she should have.
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Jul 2, 2016 22:10
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E: ^^ Didn't want those votes anyways. In unrelated news, those grapes were probably sour, I'm glad I can't reach themAdar posted:Bernie ran a pretty good campaign that played to his core strengths, which were inherently few, and dodged his core weaknesses as a candidate, which were pretty legion Hillary is a solid power broker who shut any 'good' candidates out of the race before it even started and already had deals with all of the traditional sources of Democratic funding. A dark horse candidate running on internet money was basically the only thing she couldn't stop before it even started. An uncontested primary would have been a dream for her, because she would never have to think for herself in public. Thankfully Donald Trump is an even worse candidate than Hillary Clinton, so the GE is going to be a slam dunk.
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Jul 2, 2016 22:16
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Trump was the best possible canidate to win the primary with the current weird GOP voting base, while being one of the worst possible candidate to run in the general besides Zodiac.
etalian has issued a correction as of 22:22 on Jul 2, 2016 |
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Jul 2, 2016 22:19
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