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I'd say there's at least a five percent chance she remains and everyone has their own personal level of risk.
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Jul 1, 2016 23:34
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Michael Scott posted:What I'm struggling to understand is, in markets like these, there's little foreseeable reason to get out and sell your shares at .75. Yet we see hundreds of shares for sale at .75, .8. Why is that? Do people have open sell orders open for 'no'? When a market is new, every "Yes" share that is bought has a corresponding "No" share at the inverse price. You can see that when you place buy orders. Also, some people are happy with just doubling their money in 20 minutes.
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Jul 1, 2016 23:35
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Necc0 posted:'One in the Hand > Two in the Bush' who's a mess- by the way
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Jul 1, 2016 23:38
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The Joe Man posted:Haha it's already doubled. Whoever makes a shitload of money, feel free to throw me some bones for the hot tip, it'd be massively appreciated I thought you were on Warren for VP.
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Jul 2, 2016 01:05
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I bought a good chunk of wasserman NO, but I can see clinton being "gently caress you" to the bernie people and keeping her on for another 6 months or something. I dunno if I would buy much higher than 80 unless there are some more concrete indications they will appoint a new chair at the convention than that huffpo article? Also got some clinton.jail YES for 28, and sanders.endorse NO for 52. Some bids in on other related markets. Good luck all you sleepy often-confused hillary backers.
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Jul 2, 2016 01:13
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Vox Nihili posted:I thought you were on Warren for VP. I sold & cashed out to pay rent.
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Jul 2, 2016 01:18
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Still think the thread title should be No Really, Don't Bet On Polls imo
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Jul 2, 2016 02:03
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Crap I sold all my Clinton shares, forgetting about the trader limit, and now I can't place orders to get back in 
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Jul 2, 2016 03:44
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SurgicalOntologist posted:Crap I sold all my Clinton shares, forgetting about the trader limit, and now I can't place orders to get back in There are 3 other markets that are effectively the same thing, and should be at a comparable price.
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Jul 2, 2016 04:19
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Is DWS being replaced really such a lock? The only article I can find is the HuffPo one.
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Jul 2, 2016 04:32
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Bullfrog posted:Is DWS being replaced really such a lock? The only article I can find is the HuffPo one. http://observer.com/2016/06/dnc-chair-debbie-wasserman-schultz-is-finally-kicked-to-the-curb/ http://dailycaller.com/2016/06/20/bernie-sanders-floated-to-replace-wasserman-schultz-as-dnc-chair/ Sanders replacing her is pretty  not happening, but her duties have already been shifted away and it's likely she'll be replaced at the convention, as both a sop to her (to finish out the primary portion of the election) and to the Sanders faction (getting her booted). At the least, it's likely enough to double my initial investment.  Probably sell off some to avoid losses and then ride this out a bit longer. Little over 3 weeks to the convention!
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Jul 2, 2016 04:40
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SurgicalOntologist posted:Crap I sold all my Clinton shares, forgetting about the trader limit, and now I can't place orders to get back in What is the trader limit, and is based on individuals or total shares?
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Jul 2, 2016 04:47
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OAquinas posted:There are 3 other markets that are effectively the same thing, and should be at a comparable price. Thanks for the reminder, forgot about those.
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Jul 2, 2016 05:17
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I bought DWS to stay at near 2-1. Not sure why she would resign in the middle of an election. She's already handed off power. Anyway, I think the price will trend up.
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Jul 2, 2016 05:20
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Gyges posted:What is the trader limit, and is based on individuals or total shares? individuals. at any given time no more than 5000 people can own shares of a contract
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Jul 2, 2016 05:40
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Yeah, so if you're selling your position but might want to get back in later, leave 1 share.
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Jul 2, 2016 05:41
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Baddog posted:Also got some clinton.jail YES for 28, Unless you think the FBI is actually going to recommend indicting I'd back out of this ASAP. There's not much news left that can break that could put any further upward pressure on this besides the FBI just coming out and indicting her.
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Jul 2, 2016 05:44
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well theoretically there could be some leak, from either inside the investigation, or from someone inside hillary's staff. but for there to be an actual prosecution, i feel like the feds would need to be holding some absolute smoking-gun bombshell pieces of evidence that no one has talked about in the media as of yet
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Jul 2, 2016 06:07
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I imagine the price will rise if/when the FBI actually brings Hillary in for an interview
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Jul 2, 2016 07:19
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Isn't that supposed to be today?
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Jul 2, 2016 14:28
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Yeah that's happening today. I'm guessing we'll get a few speculative pieces from 'experts' that will pump the price, but after that, there's nothing but waiting until they announce no charges will be brought.
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Jul 2, 2016 16:47
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So when do you think the FBI will announce non-indictment / indictment? Before the convention? After? Could it be after the election even?
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Jul 2, 2016 20:08
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I'm fairly sure the FBI said that the Hillary interview would be the last part of the investigation so we'll probably be hearing official news pretty soon.
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Jul 2, 2016 20:17
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My dumb personal opinion is pretty firm on the NO side of Clinton being charged. That said, yesterday I unloaded my shares for a 10% loss. I had bought too far into the market at too high of a price back when I just joined the site, and I'd rather not have the money tied up for half a year. Now I just have to resist the urge to buy back in  The Australian election was super wacky. It looks like there's no clear majority, and some ballots won't get counted until Tuesday. I don't know how coalition-formation works in Australia so I'll probably be sitting this one out 
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Jul 2, 2016 20:26
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If RCP drops the two oldest polls for Clinton v Trump (more likely than not by July 6) then B5 is basically a lock. Clinton would need to make up 12 points over a +5 average to come back from that.
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Jul 2, 2016 20:28
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Also lol my DWS shares are a bloodbath, the price is back down to 31c for NO.
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Jul 2, 2016 20:34
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Necc0 posted:I'm fairly sure the FBI said that the Hillary interview would be the last part of the investigation so we'll probably be hearing official news pretty soon. They said they wanted to release their decision prior to the conventions, so it'll be within the next couple weeks. So we should get paid with time to drop the money on foolish things before Cleveland even starts to smoulder.
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Jul 2, 2016 21:01
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Death count in cleveland: sub500, 500-1000, 1000-2500, 2500+
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Jul 2, 2016 21:06
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If the FBI announces no charges, will the market still close in December or will they close it immediately?
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Jul 2, 2016 21:29
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I have extra funds floating in my account so I went ahead and bought into No Charges.
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Jul 2, 2016 21:31
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Bullfrog posted:If the FBI announces no charges, will the market still close in December or will they close it immediately? I've been wondering about this, too. The rules of the market don't refer to a specific investigation or a specific issue. If they leave it running the whole year, it will be pretty funny to see all the commenter meltdowns and price swings.
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Jul 2, 2016 21:34
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Lutha Mahtin posted:I've been wondering about this, too. The rules of the market don't refer to a specific investigation or a specific issue. If they leave it running the whole year, it will be pretty funny to see all the commenter meltdowns and price swings. They could technically close it early, but most likely it will remain open until the end date to avoid an early-closing scandal. Should spike to 90 if the FBI announces no charges though.
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Jul 2, 2016 21:48
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If the FBI announces that they aren't pressing charges I imagine that the market will close. Then a new market will open involving Congressional hearings.
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Jul 2, 2016 22:08
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Shouldn't the comma and dash in the thread title be switched?
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Jul 2, 2016 23:11
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should be formatted like this probably https://twitter.com/dril/status/197502223226384387?lang=en
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Jul 2, 2016 23:14
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Are there rules for which polls RCP drops after some amount of time / some number of new polls?
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Jul 3, 2016 04:00
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Michael Scott posted:Are there rules for which polls RCP drops after some amount of time / some number of new polls? The rules are the same as in Calvin Ball.
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Jul 3, 2016 04:22
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Lutha Mahtin posted:I've been wondering about this, too. The rules of the market don't refer to a specific investigation or a specific issue. If they leave it running the whole year, it will be pretty funny to see all the commenter meltdowns and price swings. It'll be open for the whole year. The rules aren't specifically for this particular investigation so THEORETICALLY something else could arise causing the FBI to press charges.
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Jul 3, 2016 05:12
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Michael Scott posted:Are there rules for which polls RCP drops after some amount of time / some number of new polls? If you can figure this out, then you can make a small fortune. RCP's random(?) dropping of polls is one of the big points of Don't Bet On Polls.
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Jul 3, 2016 05:30
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I'm really glad I didn't put money on DWS being replaced at the convention a few days ago now, but at its current price I'm tempted.
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Jul 3, 2016 18:31
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