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If you really feel like betting on DWS and want to make sure it's guaranteed money, you can still buy in on her winning her primary at under 90 cents. Primary is the 30th of August.
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Jul 3, 2016 19:01
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Joe Son posted:I'm really glad I didn't put money on DWS being replaced at the convention a few days ago now, but at its current price I'm tempted. I don't really understand why people are so confident she won't be replaced at the end of the convention. I really don't think formalizing her resignation would incur a political cost.
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Jul 3, 2016 19:18
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Vox Nihili posted:I don't really understand why people are so confident she won't be replaced at the end of the convention. I really don't think formalizing her resignation would incur a political cost. My faith in NO was shaken a lot when I couldn't find many good, reliable articles with testimony from non-anonymous "elected/top democrats". For example, this article is representative of the few I could find: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/281147-dems-discuss-dropping-wasserman-schultz I think there's a good chance she is replaced, but based on hard data / evidence, I don't feel comfortable betting on it. Question: is there any advantage to selling shares, using profits to buy more once the price goes down a bit, and repeating? Is it better to just wait until the end date? FYI, it's the Hillary NO Charges market that I was considering doing this in. My gut is telling me it's best to wait at this point, because the price probably won't swing enough to make it worthwhile. EDIT: yeah, I'm not gonna do this. Bullfrog has issued a correction as of 20:12 on Jul 3, 2016 |
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Jul 3, 2016 19:55
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Bullfrog posted:Question: is there any advantage to selling shares, using profits to buy more once the price goes down a bit, and repeating? Is it better to just wait until the end date? FYI, it's the Hillary NO Charges market that I was considering doing this in. My gut is telling me it's best to wait at this point, because the price probably won't swing enough to make it worthwhile. EDIT: yeah, I'm not gonna do this. Of course - you can collect profits multiple times on the same invested capital. Even if you expect the price to just stay the same for the next month, and there are other bets you like - you should theoretically cash out, use that $ to buy those other shorter-lived bets, later cash out profits on those, and then re-buy the original one for the same price. increases capital efficiency obviously nothing is ever obvious though - prices could just keep rising and you'd miss out on those gains in the process
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Jul 3, 2016 20:36
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I assume all of you know this, but in case not here's the actual text of the DWS July rules:quote:Debbie Wasserman Schultz shall hold the position of Chairperson of the Democratic National Committee through 11:59:59 pm on July 31, 2016. I point this out because the 2016 DNC is held July 25-28 this year, so if there is an election or whatever, the new person would have to "take office" like immediately after the convention. The 28th is a Thursday, and 30-31 is a weekend. I am totally ignorant of how the party rules work, but it would seem weird to me if they didn't build in a few days for a transition period.
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Jul 3, 2016 20:41
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Here's the relevant portion of the Democratic Party's bylaws:quote:The National Chairperson, the five Vice Chairpersons, the National Finance Chair, the Treasurer, and the Secretary, shall be elected: DWS's term ends at the winter meeting at the DNC, which won't be held until after the election. The only way to replace her before then is during a special meeting that can only be called after she resigns.
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Jul 3, 2016 21:27
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I'm keeping my shares, all of them. If she doesn't formally resign it'll be the biggest loss i take but you win some, you lose some.
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Jul 3, 2016 21:29
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Oops I bought DWS NO shares too. Serves me right for listening to you fools. Here's hoping she resigns.
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Jul 3, 2016 21:43
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Yeah, that'll be the last HOT GOON STOCK TIP that I ever act on.
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Jul 3, 2016 21:52
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NO is still a good buy. SHE HAS ALREADY BEEN FIRED. When they elect a new chair at the convention, what does she actually have left?? Her title will be gone and that's what this market is based on. And it jumped from 30c to high 70's; whoever is bitching probably should've sold after they hit double+ profit.
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Jul 3, 2016 23:16
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The Joe Man posted:SHE HAS ALREADY BEEN FIRED. Neither of these two things exist outside of Joe Man World.
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Jul 3, 2016 23:26
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The Joe Man posted:NO is still a good buy. SHE HAS ALREADY BEEN FIRED. When they elect a new chair at the convention, what does she actually have left?? Her title will be gone and that's what this market is based on. hello my friend you seem to be confused. you are supposed to pump-spam in the comment section, not on the something awful dot com forum
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Jul 4, 2016 00:20
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CARL MARK FORCE IV posted:Yeah, that'll be the last HOT GOON STOCK TIP that I ever act on. HOT GOON STOCK TIPs are actually usually fairly good. You've just got to remember that we're only slightly better informed idiots who are pooling our knowledge together. Group think not only is a variable to be seriously considered, there's also our general liberal bias and desire for certain events to happen/not happen. Definitely take suggestions with a pinch of salt, but they're usually worth at least considering. Though it's usually best to wait for some sort of consensus rather than a couple people posting their ideas on their own.
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Jul 4, 2016 00:43
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Caitlyn Jenner just endorsed Trump on her show tonight https://www.predictit.org/Contract/837/Will-Caitlyn-Jenner-address-the-2016-Republican-National-Convention-in-2016#data I just single-handedly moved the market 2 points. Doesn't look like anyone else has jumped on this yet. Might be worth jumping in for a quick flip once others get wind of this. Necc0 has issued a correction as of 06:02 on Jul 4, 2016 |
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Jul 4, 2016 05:57
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Arkane posted:Neither of these two things exist outside of Joe Man World. Eh, the first one sort of does. She doesn't have any real job anymore, just a title.
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Jul 4, 2016 20:02
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I registered on predictit using my facebook account, and now I can't access it in China.
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Jul 4, 2016 21:46
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Do they want you doing political betting like this? Try not to get disappeared.
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Jul 4, 2016 22:11
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Hillary indict is finally moving.
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Jul 5, 2016 15:21
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What's with the new thread title?
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Jul 5, 2016 16:00
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Michael Scott posted:What's with the new thread title? Jeb! is a mess.
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Jul 5, 2016 16:05
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I hope all of you took the smart man road and sold your Hillary NOs at 80 to buy a bunch of YES and ride the short-term wave up!
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Jul 5, 2016 16:10
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Wtf is happening, my G/l is swinging like crazy.
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Jul 5, 2016 16:13
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Vox Nihili posted:Wtf is happening, my G/l is swinging like crazy. Indictment market is going bananas
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Jul 5, 2016 16:14
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Annnnd it's over. We're gonna hit my sell orders pretty soon. gg /nextscandal
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Jul 5, 2016 16:16
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Ah, crazy how it went the opposite way first for no real reason. My shares sold at 93c, probably should have put the order a bit higher.
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Jul 5, 2016 16:18
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Vox Nihili posted:Ah, crazy how it went the opposite way first for no real reason. My shares sold at 93c, probably should have put the order a bit higher. I wanted to grab a bunch more NO when it plunged into the 60s but wasn't fast enough I was entertaining myself with the flood of comments like a moron.
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Jul 5, 2016 16:19
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Vox Nihili posted:Ah, crazy how it went the opposite way first for no real reason. My shares sold at 93c, probably should have put the order a bit higher. Comey has been pretty upset that he wasn't able to find any wrongdoing this whole time, I knew he was going to piss and moan for a while. I bought some YES at 20 and sold at 40 before I bought back into NO at 65-70. Hahahaha
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Jul 5, 2016 16:21
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pathetic little tramp posted:Comey has been pretty upset that he wasn't able to find any wrongdoing this whole time, I knew he was going to piss and moan for a while. I bought some YES at 20 and sold at 40 before I bought back into NO at 65-70. Hahahaha My interpretation of the FBI's statement is that there was some wrongdoing but it's like so trivial and technical of an offense that a prosecutor wouldn't even bring it. Their statement will probably be used by Trump to characterize her judgement throughout the general.
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Jul 5, 2016 16:25
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Michael Scott posted:My interpretation of the FBI's statement is that there was some wrongdoing but it's like so trivial and technical of an offense that a prosecutor wouldn't even bring it. It was more that it was terrible, incompetent, "extremely careless"....but not "intentional." Fortunately for her, she was also not under oath when she lied in various public statements.
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Jul 5, 2016 16:40
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Arkane posted:It was more that it was terrible, incompetent, "extremely careless"....but not "intentional." When/how did she lie about it?
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Jul 5, 2016 16:55
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Michael Scott posted:When/how did she lie about it? Probably the usual politician-talking-about-tech inaccuracies/presumptions.
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Jul 5, 2016 17:02
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Take it to fort rear end in a top hat for gently caress's sake.
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Jul 5, 2016 17:10
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God loving damnit. Michael Scott posted:When/how did she lie about it? She led off by saying that there was no classified info, then she said she never *sent* any classified info (as opposed to receiving/soliciting it), then she said nothing was ever *marked* classified (classified info doesn't have to be marked classified), then she said it was all cool and everyone else was doing it (nah not so much). http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/432489/hillary-no-classified-markings-makes-things-worse Those are the main lies, but there are a lot of others around the whole thing as well, like "it was always secure" and "I did it for convenience, not to dodge the FOIA", and "I'm cooperating fully". Ahh well, RIP the money in those shares, RIP Bernie, RIP Vilerat.
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Jul 5, 2016 17:14
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Can't believe Hillary Indict NO is still at 93 cents. Bernouts ruin everything.
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Jul 5, 2016 17:14
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Edit: wrong thread
showbiz_liz has issued a correction as of 17:22 on Jul 5, 2016 |
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Jul 5, 2016 17:15
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pathetic little tramp posted:Can't believe Hillary Indict NO is still at 93 cents. Bernouts ruin everything. It was 97 like 20 minutes ago, I already dumped my shares.
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Jul 5, 2016 17:15
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Yeah, the gently caress? How is it not 99c right now? That being said, I'm really happy about this. I bet like $300 on NO. Feels good taking money from Trumpers.
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Jul 5, 2016 17:17
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Bullfrog posted:Yeah, the gently caress? How is it not 99c right now? More deets, come on. What was your avg buying price and when did you sell
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Jul 5, 2016 17:25
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Maybe people think the FBI is gonna pop out a recommendation for charges on the clinton foundation slush fund/peddling favors for cash from dictators. I dunno how that happens now though. If the FBI had anything they would have dropped it today or waited to say anything. I'm out at fire sale prices, although I can see this bouncing back into the twenties before the end of the year on rumors.
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Jul 5, 2016 17:26
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Baddog posted:Maybe people think the FBI is gonna pop out a recommendation for charges on the clinton foundation slush fund/peddling favors for cash from dictators. This always happens with 'settled' markets that won't technically close for a long time. The Biden.Run market stayed afloat for months after he announced he wouldn't be running. It's due to both the NO buyers being willing to not sell at whatever price because 'gently caress it I can just wait it out anyways' and YES buyers figuring 'well almost all the money is gone anyways may as well let it ride'
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Jul 5, 2016 17:47
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