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Saladman posted:That's a pretty low loving bar. DPRK isn't experiencing the rapid decline and total economic freefall because it's still in the middle ages and has absolutely nowhere to fall to. It'd be like comparing Venezuela in 5 year with Venezuela today "well everyone is starving and there's no electricity or water, but at least inflation is gone I think you're missing the point, it's an ironic comment on how Venezuela is going to such poo poo that it's starting to make North Korea look sane and stable.
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Jul 3, 2016 22:09
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Nitrousoxide posted:North Korea, a country known for its threats of nuclear war, slave labor, cults of personality, famine, nearly 0% economic growth for 40 years, no internet access, and arrests of the press, and government officials for perceived slights to the great leader. Realtalk North Korea is arguably the world's only surviving fascist state, it's just that Korea, especially North Korea, is so ethnically homogenous that they have no minorities to mass murder so aside from calling Obama a monkey in poorly translated KCNA articles it's hard to differentiate them from boilerplate Stalinism.
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Jul 3, 2016 23:17
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Stalin did plenty of mass murder of minorities.
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Jul 4, 2016 00:12
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El Hefe posted:I wonder how many famines Venezuela would have to go through until privileged first worlders start posting on the internet how keeping Maduro is actually good because replacing him would be too risky. I don't think that keeping the current North Korean regime is good. But I also don't think that there's absolutely nowhere to go but up, and I'm certainly not naive enough to think that just because the "opposite" end of the political spectrum took control means in and of itself that things would change for the better. I'd feel the same way if North Korea were currently run by a "right-wing" government and you had proposed a coup by the "left". This isn't about me being a leftie loony. (I think this thread gets hung up on 'left' and 'right' a little too much.) Saladman posted:That's a pretty low loving bar. DPRK isn't experiencing the rapid decline and total economic freefall because it's still in the middle ages and has absolutely nowhere to fall to. It'd be like comparing Venezuela in 5 year with Venezuela today "well everyone is starving and there's no electricity or water, but at least inflation is gone I don't think "absolutely nowhere to fall to" is accurate. They're functioning, not well at all, but well enough for China and South Korea to not be inundated with refugees. Yes, I know, this is a "pretty low loving bar." That said, I honestly would rather sooner see a coup in Venezuela than in North Korea, in large part because Venezuela hasn't fallen that far yet and I want to see them reverse course while they still have some national infrastructure and economic potential remaining, and it's been demonstrated that this cannot happen with the PSUV in charge. fishmech posted:I think you're missing the point, it's an ironic comment on how Venezuela is going to such poo poo that it's starting to make North Korea look sane and stable. At least North Korea accepts food aid. (well, hell, a lot of their antics revolve around trying to convince us to give them more aid) Venezuela is literally starving and the leaders still refuse to consider accepting any international aid. Sure, it's not technically a hyper-repressive police state yet. But who needs police when you can have local gangs do your political violence for you? Sure, the citizens are still free to leave... while there are still airlines servicing the country.
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Jul 4, 2016 09:00
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Farmer Crack-rear end posted:(I think this thread gets hung up on 'left' and 'right' a little too much.) Agreed. I've expressed before how discussing ideology seems like a waste of time and a rather callous and inhuman exercise when people are risking starvation and disease. Obviously I'm biased to think this way and people with no connection to Venezuela have no reason to consider the Venezuelans over their own political agenda, but it's still the wrong thing to focus on. At this point ideology means poo poo, Venezuelans can't eat politics.
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Jul 4, 2016 10:26
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Al Jazeera English had an interesting interview with a party official in a party governing along with PSUV (forget which, sorry) who was basically saying that although he's a Chavista he's done with Maduro, and other options need to be explored. I wonder how prevalent this viewpoint is becoming? He made himself sound persecuted for it, but hinted that he certainly wasn't alone -- and that squares some with what one poster in this thread suggested about a month ago. Is it possible that as the situation continues to deteriorate Maduro's position might become untenable even within the PSUV? Or am I just being too optimistic? And I suppose that we're so late in the game it might not change much, anyway.
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Jul 4, 2016 11:37
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MothraAttack posted:Al Jazeera English had an interesting interview with a party official in a party governing along with PSUV (forget which, sorry) who was basically saying that although he's a Chavista he's done with Maduro, and other options need to be explored. I wonder how prevalent this viewpoint is becoming? He made himself sound persecuted for it, but hinted that he certainly wasn't alone -- and that squares some with what one poster in this thread suggested about a month ago. Is it possible that as the situation continues to deteriorate Maduro's position might become untenable even within the PSUV? Or am I just being too optimistic? And I suppose that we're so late in the game it might not change much, anyway. The main issue is that Chavismo doesn't have much room to maneuver when it comes to Maduro. Their only viable choices are to either delay the recall referendum until 2017 so their current VP gets left in charge and they stay in power (which is what they're trying to do right now) or outright cancel it. If Maduro quits — either of his own volition or because his party pushes him to, before the next year, it would trigger presidential elections which they would lose unless Chavez himself rose from the grave and felt up to running for one more term. It's important to remember that a lot of high ranking PSUV members will likely be facing criminal investigations once they're removed from power, so they have no incentive to seek a regime change unless it can provide them with safe haven, even at the cost of thousands of lives. The only unpredictable factor which could make their plan go sideways is a civil uprising, which would likely occur if people see that they won't allow for a recall referendum this year, mixed with the fact that food and medicines are running out with no relief in sight. There's also international pressure, of course, but I'm not sure the government really gives a crap about that these days.
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Jul 4, 2016 14:37
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What needs to happen here is what happened in Ukraine but people don't have the balls for that here.
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Jul 4, 2016 15:09
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Getting all those nice Russian-speaking Venezuelans with Russian weapons and gear from overseas to carve a people's republic from sovereign Venezuelan soil is going to take a bit of effort. 
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Jul 4, 2016 16:00
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Traveller posted:Getting all those nice Russian-speaking Venezuelans with Russian weapons and gear from overseas to carve a people's republic from sovereign Venezuelan soil is going to take a bit of effort. There yet remains a place for American leadership in South America. Unfortunately, our current administration is too cowardly to know the benefits of gunboat diplomacy.
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Jul 4, 2016 16:04
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An American and Venezuelan married couple have been arrested on trumped-up charges and accused of espionage. http://idahostatejournal.com/member...tm_content=link
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Jul 4, 2016 17:42
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Spain's ABC published an interview today with Argentinian President Mauricio Macri. The interview covered a whole bunch of topics, but the last few questions were about Venezuela. Here's my translation:quote:ABC: You promised during your campaign that you would ask for the release of Venezuelan opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez. You fulfilled this promise during the 49th Heads of State Summit at MERCOSUR, where you asked for "the prompt release of political prisoners in Venezuela". Did you expect that reaction from Foreign Minister Delcy Rodriguez, who erroneously accused the Argentinian government of double standards for "freeing those responsible for torture during the dictatorship", and that she had already denounced the "persistent and illegitimate meddling in Venezuelan internal affairs"?
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Jul 4, 2016 17:52
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-Troika- posted:An American and Venezuelan married couple have been arrested on trumped-up charges and accused of espionage. I am honestly surprised they have been trying to throw out all westeners, or at the very least all US visitors.
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Jul 4, 2016 17:53
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So in the event of a regime change and most of the PSUV leadership pull a Haiti and disappear, is it likely that charges could be brought against them in the International Criminal Court? I'd assume they'd flee to countries without extradition treaties and even the US would be reluctant to send them home under such circumstances because even if they're guilty as sin they likely wouldn't get fair trials.
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Jul 4, 2016 19:10
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Demiurge4 posted:So in the event of a regime change and most of the PSUV leadership pull a Haiti and disappear, is it likely that charges could be brought against them in the International Criminal Court? I'd assume they'd flee to countries without extradition treaties and even the US would be reluctant to send them home under such circumstances because even if they're guilty as sin they likely wouldn't get fair trials. I don't know if it'd be likely, but I think the case could be made that at least some of the Maduro government's actions could constitute crimes against humanity. The most obvious candidate for some kind of action by the ICC is the mass deportation of Colombian nationals living in Venezuela along the Colombian border back in August 2015. Maduro justified the deportations by claiming that the Colombians living in Venezuela were poor, thieves, and that they were to blame for the scarcity crisis in the border regions. I can't find the articles now, but I believe that the number of people directly deported by Venezuelan authorities numbered just under two thousand. I also saw videos of National Guard soldiers demolishing Colombians' homes in the border states (I think the video I saw was taken in Tachira). I think about 20,000 Colombians left "willingly" during the campaign (which last from August to about October) out of fear that the authorities would come for them. Anyway, the ICC considers "deportation or forcible transfer of population" a war crime, and I'd argue that this is what we saw in Venezuela in 2015. Still, the case would be extremely messy to make (maybe the people who were deported were all in Venezuela illegally? I don't know). Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 20:41 on Jul 4, 2016 |
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Jul 4, 2016 19:36
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All the cash ended up in Swiss bank accounts or somewhere in the Western financial system. I don't think anyone with the ability to track down all the stolen wealth is going to bother helping the opposition claw it back. Only the very top of the PSUV may be persecuted, but the bulk of the PSUV corruption machine would get away. I honestly believe the reason the US hasn't put more pressure on the regime is because the situation in Venezuela isn't really that harmful to American interests. So what if a bunch of lovely Caribbean nations get cheap oil in exchange for voting against the US in various regional bodies? So what if Maduro blathers about American imperialism? Venezuela isn't building an economic or military juggernaut like China. Their system actually inhibits their ability to project power, and loots huge amount of surplus, which is deposited in banks which inevitably buy American treasury bonds, effectively subsidizing American imperialism.
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Jul 4, 2016 19:43
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hypnorotic posted:All the cash ended up in Swiss bank accounts or somewhere in the Western financial system. I don't think anyone with the ability to track down all the stolen wealth is going to bother helping the opposition claw it back. Only the very top of the PSUV may be persecuted, but the bulk of the PSUV corruption machine would get away. I honestly believe the reason the US hasn't put more pressure on the regime is because the situation in Venezuela isn't really that harmful to American interests. So what if a bunch of lovely Caribbean nations get cheap oil in exchange for voting against the US in various regional bodies? So what if Maduro blathers about American imperialism? Venezuela isn't building an economic or military juggernaut like China. Their system actually inhibits their ability to project power, and loots huge amount of surplus, which is deposited in banks which inevitably buy American treasury bonds, effectively subsidizing American imperialism. What is harmful to our interests is the refugee timebomb that chavismo has ignited. Better for Venezuelans to starve until they go full Mussolino than stream over the southern border and impact Democrats' ability to win votes, I say.
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Jul 4, 2016 22:14
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Haha you guys. You know that North Korea and Venezuela have essentially jack diddly squat in common right? Right? Despite the fact that they're both ruled over by a dumb chubby fucker. Jesus thank god that's the case. Maduro has been seeming more and more unstable recently. The further his influence declines before the inevitable end, the better. Already I believe it is at the point where the military would not accept an order that was too insane (where's that bar though). I don't really have evidence for that, it's just a gut feeling. The mood in the country is ugly and the people in the military are people too. Plus most movers and shakers have a pretty good sense of which direction the wind is turning. Sometime soon if it continues as is people with authority will begin to desert him, and once it begins the crisis of confidence will spread quickly. Honestly, it's a wonder it hasn't already. Apparently there's still enough people getting their bread buttered, but that won't last forever.
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Jul 4, 2016 23:22
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My Imaginary GF posted:What is harmful to our interests is the refugee timebomb that chavismo has ignited. Better for Venezuelans to starve until they go full Mussolino than stream over the southern border and impact Democrats' ability to win votes, I say. Nobody cares what you say. You've been screeching this repeatedly but obviously no one's interested in engaging with your nonsense.
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Jul 4, 2016 23:24
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Just let MIGF do MIGF, he isn't hurting anyone so long as you don't respond.
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Jul 5, 2016 00:45
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how invested is the military in the status quo? I get that they are being bought essentially, but can they maintain their position in a forced regime change or are they going to stick with the PSUV until the end?
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Jul 5, 2016 01:12
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Constant Hamprince posted:Just let MIGF do MIGF, he isn't hurting anyone so long as you don't respond. The only one hurt IS MIGF and it's hard to watch a man do that to himself. But I can admit that you are entirely correct.
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Jul 5, 2016 04:53
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JohnGalt posted:how invested is the military in the status quo? I get that they are being bought essentially, but can they maintain their position in a forced regime change or are they going to stick with the PSUV until the end? If there's a forced regime change, the military will be involved. This is probably the end game for Venezuela, when the army finally turns against the PSUV and pacts with the opposition to set up a new government. Either that or, in a more Latin-American traditional move, the military itself grabs power and we just get a new dictator. I think this is unlikely since Venezuela will have rough years for the foreseeable future and there's little fun in being a dictator if your country is broke. edit: an example of how petty the PSUV is: Lilian Tintori was at a small rally yesterday afternoon in Valencia, and they cut the power of the whole block. Hugoon Chavez fucked around with this message at 10:08 on Jul 5, 2016 |
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Jul 5, 2016 07:14
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Bloomberg wonders why Venezuela pays their debtsBloomberg posted:The government is due to make $1.5 billion in foreign debt payments in the second half of this year. Include PDVSA’s tab and the figure swells to $5.8 billion. It’s a staggering sum of money in a nation that has bled its hard currency reserves down to just $12 billion. And while few, if any, bondholders would embrace a default, they certainly wouldn’t be caught off-guard by it. For the better part of the past 18 months, the government’s benchmark bonds have been trading under 50 cents on the dollar, a price that in essence signals to a debtor: “We’re prepared for a restructuring, go ahead and do it if you must.”
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Jul 5, 2016 10:36
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Anos posted:I guess we can add suicidal pride to Maduro's virtues. Oh, he's not the one that's going hungry. More like homicidal pride, which is nothing new.
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Jul 5, 2016 10:55
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Well, I'm leaving tomorrow morning. It's bound to be a long, uncomfortable trip alternating between sitting for hours at a terminal with jack poo poo to do, and sitting for hours in an airplane seat trying to fall asleep, repeated ad nauseum for over 24 hours. But hey that's a privilege that many of my close friends and family will never have, so I have a duty to them to do fine, to not fail like many other Venezuelan migrants, so I can one day help them jump the pond as well. Nobody should be forced to bear the disaster in Venezuela, nobody should have to live in fear, if Venezuela won't change, then we have to. I have so many people to give my thanks to, this definitely wouldn't have been something I could have done on my own without the help of so many who, despite not even knowing me, threw a helping hand, or pointed me in the right direction. I would explicitly like to thank Chuck Boone, Nicolás and Vanessa, for going out of their way to help me out, I'm forever grateful for what you've done. I don't think I'll have internet for most of the trip, so, I guess that's it until Friday at least.
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Jul 5, 2016 15:19
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Don't return no matter how bad it gets, one of my uncles left back in the 90s and he suffered a lot, had to work a bunch of extremely poo poo jobs and once even fell off a building while cleaning windows and broke like a million bones but he never returned and his hard work paid off and now he has a really good office job that pays well. The problem with a lot of Venezuelans that go abroad and fail is that they think its gonna be easy and that they can just live there like they live here, you have to be mentally prepared that you're gonna have to work a lot of poo poo jobs and you're gonna have to work extremely hard if you wanna succeed.
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Jul 5, 2016 15:37
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Good luck fnox. Everyone but Borneo Jimmy is rooting for you.
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Jul 5, 2016 16:01
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fnox posted:Well, I'm leaving tomorrow morning. It's bound to be a long, uncomfortable trip alternating between sitting for hours at a terminal with jack poo poo to do, and sitting for hours in an airplane seat trying to fall asleep, repeated ad nauseum for over 24 hours. But hey that's a privilege that many of my close friends and family will never have, so I have a duty to them to do fine, to not fail like many other Venezuelan migrants, so I can one day help them jump the pond as well. Nobody should be forced to bear the disaster in Venezuela, nobody should have to live in fear, if Venezuela won't change, then we have to. Congratulations, man! Have a safe trip, I'm sure things will work out for you in your new home.
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Jul 5, 2016 16:48
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Yeah, good luck fnox. Don't look back.
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Jul 5, 2016 17:46
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Do your best out there, fnox. Work hard in getting a better and safer life for you and your family until our Venezuela is given a chance to stop being such a disaster.
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Jul 5, 2016 20:39
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Holy poo poo, fnox's posts are depressing. Rationing shampoo...
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Jul 5, 2016 20:51
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fnox posted:Well, I'm leaving tomorrow morning. It's bound to be a long, uncomfortable trip alternating between sitting for hours at a terminal with jack poo poo to do, and sitting for hours in an airplane seat trying to fall asleep, repeated ad nauseum for over 24 hours. But hey that's a privilege that many of my close friends and family will never have, so I have a duty to them to do fine, to not fail like many other Venezuelan migrants, so I can one day help them jump the pond as well. Nobody should be forced to bear the disaster in Venezuela, nobody should have to live in fear, if Venezuela won't change, then we have to. Good luck fnox.
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Jul 5, 2016 20:52
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Good luck from a lurker too, although it further unbalances the level of Actually People In Venezuela vs Sheltered Kids Spouting What Their College Professors Told Them on here.
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Jul 5, 2016 21:08
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Today is our Independence Day and during the military parade while they were talking about "the evil empire" an F-16 flew above Maduro, I wonder if they realize how stupid they look.
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Jul 5, 2016 22:00
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Another lurker chiming in to wish you the best of luck, fnox.
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Jul 5, 2016 22:54
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Godspeed fnox.
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Jul 5, 2016 23:03
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Best of luck, fnox, and remember that living well is the best revenge against Borneo Jimmy.
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Jul 6, 2016 00:00
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My best wishes to you on this journey towards a new life fnox. Trabaje duro y no se amilane! Edit: phone autocorrect.
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Jul 6, 2016 00:20
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All the best fnox.
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Jul 6, 2016 01:07
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