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Necc0 posted:This always happens with 'settled' markets that won't technically close for a long time. The Biden.Run market stayed afloat for months after he announced he wouldn't be running. That seems a bit daft because the opportunity cost of staying in for several months and being unable to trade on other markets is clearly bigger than the upcoming gain on 1/1/17 of 5c / share or whatever. Am I wrong? I guess more daft for the NO holders than the YES holders. The YES holders just have no good answer. That was my position when I lost big. 
Michael Scott has issued a correction as of 18:03 on Jul 5, 2016 |
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Jul 5, 2016 18:01
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Yeah absolutely but the reason this site isn't lucrative because you're playing against a bunch of emotionless beep-boop robots A lot of it comes down to pride. In this case team YES doesn't want to allow NO to get their money back and NO doesn't want to share.
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Jul 5, 2016 18:22
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Good market opportunity. https://www.predictit.org/Market/2239/What-will-Gary-Johnson's-monthly-fundraising-be-for-June Ignore the 1M bracket, bet YES on the bottom 4, and you can stand to make 18-20% on the 20th. If you restrict it to the bottom 3 gains are even better (~23%), but it's a smidgen more risky. He's doing better than 2012, but I don't think he's doing 2x as well. Then again, Trump. OAquinas has issued a correction as of 18:31 on Jul 5, 2016 |
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Jul 5, 2016 18:27
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Necc0 posted:Yeah absolutely but the reason this site isn't lucrative because you're playing against a bunch of emotionless beep-boop robots I see what you're saying, definitely. However, are you saying this site isn't lucrative for you, like your G/L literally hovers around $0? From what I have gathered people are on this site for more than just fun, because it seems some people are able to win consistently or at least significantly more than 50% of the time. Genuinely curious as always. My G/L is way negative 
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Jul 5, 2016 18:27
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Michael Scott posted:From what I have gathered people are on this site for more than just fun, because it seems some people are able to win consistently or at least significantly more than 50% of the time. I do play on this site for fun and I'm not even sure if my absolute number of wins/losses is over 50% but I try to minimize losses and maximize gains. I'm up $6k on this time-waster this year, mostly by betting on Trump and mispriced primary markets, so your results may vary.
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Jul 5, 2016 18:31
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Necc0 posted:A lot of it comes down to pride. In this case team YES doesn't want to allow NO to get their money back and NO doesn't want to share. Also I don't think anyone is like "Well I would sell at a 90% loss but then the other side would win so I'm not going to do it"
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Jul 5, 2016 18:32
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OAquinas posted:Good market opportunity. When would these numbers typically be announced?
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Jul 5, 2016 18:44
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Michael Scott posted:I see what you're saying, definitely. However, are you saying this site isn't lucrative for you, like your G/L literally hovers around $0? From what I have gathered people are on this site for more than just fun, because it seems some people are able to win consistently or at least significantly more than 50% of the time. No I'm saying it's lucrative because you're playing against other people's emotions. If everyone were playing the 'correct' move then this market would be N/A / N/A already. EngineerSean posted:Also I don't think anyone is like "Well I would sell at a 90% loss but then the other side would win so I'm not going to do it" Gonna break my own rule and suggest that you read the comments. Some of the markets get intensely emotional with 'celebrity' commenters going at each other for weeks if not months. Lot's of people were extremely emotionally invested in the indictment market.
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Jul 5, 2016 18:47
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showbiz_liz posted:When would these numbers typically be announced? OAquinas posted:
FEC postings are usually done the 20th of the month. In other words, in 15 days.
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Jul 5, 2016 18:52
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OAquinas posted:Good market opportunity. I'm in big in this market too - mentioned my play a week ago: thethreeman posted:I feel like the new Johnson fundraising market has a few opportunities: https://www.predictit.org/Market/2239/What-will-Gary-Johnson's-monthly-fundraising-be-for-June He raised $350K in May, and that was BEFORE the last couple rounds of the trump collapse (the Judge Curiel stuff, "he's a mexican", and obviously everything since). Because of that, I think the <$250K bracket is similarly impossible And as usual, it's much cheaper to buy B1 NO (82c ask right now) than it is to buy B2-B5 YESs (87c combined ask right now). Same story if you're buying B1 + B5 NOs e: also the johnson polling market looks like a fun one too, but unlike fundraising, a total coin flip: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/3008/Will-national-polling-give-Gary-Johnson-at-least-8-in-a-4-way-race-on-July-31#data http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html Currently at 7.4, you can expect basically all of those polls to drop by the end of July, so who knows thethreeman has issued a correction as of 19:17 on Jul 5, 2016 |
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Jul 5, 2016 19:12
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Necc0 posted:Gonna break my own rule and suggest that you read the comments lol no thanks
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Jul 5, 2016 19:32
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I wasn't in the indictment market but I did go all in on "Will Hillary win the Democratic Nomination?" when it hilariously dipped to 89 cents
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Jul 5, 2016 20:25
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Glad I had my sell oder set at 97 cents. Nice to hear in passing that the FBI didn't indict then check on the app to see my near 50% profit.
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Jul 5, 2016 21:52
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Which app are you all using? The official one seemed to have terrible reviews so I just have a browser bookmark on my phone.
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Jul 5, 2016 21:55
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thethreeman posted:(Johnson) raised $350K in May, and that was BEFORE the last couple rounds of the trump collapse (the Judge Curiel stuff, "he's a mexican", and obviously everything since). Because of that, I think the <$250K bracket is similarly impossible I'm curious how June went for him. I got burned last month because I was sure he wouldn't break $250k, based on his numbers in 2012. Now we have a month where he blew past expectations, but with several extra factors. One, like you say, is that Trump is facing harder criticism from the press and politicians, which could drive his funding up. And he has more name recognition (and press?) this time around. But another factor is that May included a big boost from the LP convention, which might point toward June having lower numbers. I decided to just buy every option YES. These markets are all wacky and you can get really low orders filled if you're patient. I only have B4 left, and I'm just waiting for a nice swing to come through to complete my collection.
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Jul 5, 2016 22:00
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Michael Scott posted:Which app are you all using? The official one seemed to have terrible reviews so I just have a browser bookmark on my phone. I use the official app, but only to check my account at work or panic sell if I made a dumb bet and news breaks while I'm out. Mostly I just use the website itself.
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Jul 5, 2016 22:10
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Lutha Mahtin posted:I'm curious how June went for him. I got burned last month because I was sure he wouldn't break $250k, based on his numbers in 2012. Now we have a month where he blew past expectations, but with several extra factors. One, like you say, is that Trump is facing harder criticism from the press and politicians, which could drive his funding up. And he has more name recognition (and press?) this time around. But another factor is that May included a big boost from the LP convention, which might point toward June having lower numbers. Honestly, I'd either omit B0/1M, or buy NO for that one. If he doubled his best month ever he's still only at 700K; I don't see him breaking 1M. But it's certainly cheap and the safe play.
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Jul 5, 2016 22:25
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Lutha Mahtin posted:I'm curious how June went for him. I got burned last month because I was sure he wouldn't break $250k, based on his numbers in 2012. Now we have a month where he blew past expectations, but with several extra factors. One, like you say, is that Trump is facing harder criticism from the press and politicians, which could drive his funding up. And he has more name recognition (and press?) this time around. But another factor is that May included a big boost from the LP convention, which might point toward June having lower numbers. totally fair on the lowest one and the convention... but I'm definitely still betting on NOs at the current price. The LP convention happened from May 26th - 30th, and most of it was just debates (pres nom and VP nom debates) until the 29th when the delegate vote happened. It's possible Gary got a lot of donations in the last couple days, but I imagine a good chunk of the convention bump happened in June
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Jul 5, 2016 22:31
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More on what I was talking about earlier: If you look at the indictment market now it's already floated back up to 11. Now starts the long arduous deflation that will take the rest of the year. Very little of it will be determined by actual events rather than which side wants its money more.
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Jul 6, 2016 03:30
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Necc0 posted:More on what I was talking about earlier: If you look at the indictment market now it's already floated back up to 11. Now starts the long arduous deflation that will take the rest of the year. Very little of it will be determined by actual events rather than which side wants its money more. I think you said that one key to high gain is to 'play on emotions' rather than play actual events. Is there any way to do that with this kind of market? What kinds of markets does that work well with?
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Jul 6, 2016 04:19
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Not this one because it's already game over. But for other markets just look through all of them and study the actual details in the rules. Then wait for a media cycle to start blowing something out of proportion causing a market to destabilize. If you know the rules of the market and know the media is blowing hot air that's when you make your buy. After that if it's something you aren't sure of but know the market will rationalize once clearer heads prevail (nkorea.nuke) you can sell back out. If it's something you're sure of (hillary.indict) you can continue to ride it out or sell or whatever. So for example once I was sure trump had the nom back in January I took turns buying against his other challengers once they had their cycle in the spotlight.
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Jul 6, 2016 04:37
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Michael Scott posted:I think you said that one key to high gain is to 'play on emotions' rather than play actual events. Is there any way to do that with this kind of market? What kinds of markets does that work well with? In a couple weeks or so, Donald Trump will surge in the polls and across the board the Republican prospects will look rosy. Said surge will quickly be dashed a few days latter as Hillary and the Democrats rise to seemingly new heights and the Republican Party will seem doomed to eternally wonder the political desert. Convention bumps are real, predictable, and will undoubtedly throw the relevant markets into chaos in their wake. There are a few ways to play this coming emotional reaction that flies in the face of rationality. You can buy Trump and related Republican shares while they're low right now and flip them. You can put in lowball bids on Hillary and Democratic shares in anticipation of this. Or you can try and do both. Keep in mind that other people will also be trying to play the upswings on both sides, so there's a possibility that things turn out like a couple of the Bernie markets did. Tons of money dumped into markets trying to play the people playing the market and most of that money being lost because everyone is trying to make the same play.
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Jul 6, 2016 05:02
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Trump Fundraising market is sloshing based on a Trump tweet. Get in! (Or not, these aren't exactly safe markets.) https://www.predictit.org/Market/2242/What-will-Trump's-monthly-fundraising-be-for-June
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Jul 6, 2016 06:05
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there's a new market on whether california will approve marijuana legalization it's already very high
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Jul 6, 2016 17:03
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Necc0 posted:Not this one because it's already game over. But for other markets just look through all of them and study the actual details in the rules. Then wait for a media cycle to start blowing something out of proportion causing a market to destabilize. If you know the rules of the market and know the media is blowing hot air that's when you make your buy. Yes. Part of it is also just knowing the markets/PI in a more meta? sense. Especially after Bernie's unexpected win in - gently caress where was it, Michigan? - there were a ton of BernieBros on PI flush with cash propping up Bernie prices in numerous primaries, which especially went nuts with any polls even remotely showing him have a shot, even if he wound up losing terribly. Obviously that's past now (primaries are done, lot of the Berners have busted/cashed out probably) but the point is a lot of people play with their hearts/emotions instead of their heads. This presents opportunities to make money off of if the market reacts in a significant manner as such. Hell, even primary results were ridiculous. .1% of the vote in and Bernie/Hil/Whoever up by a dozen votes? Mass panic as the market swings way, way too hard in that direction. (And an opportunity to make money.) e: obv. the dangerous part here is getting caught Holding The Bag at the end of things like this, or for true upset events ala Bernie/Michigan.
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Jul 6, 2016 17:12
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Where can I find FEC filings for the candidates? I want to double check that Trump actually made over 18 million in donations for June. EDIT: and when are they usually posted? Bullfrog has issued a correction as of 19:01 on Jul 6, 2016 |
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Jul 6, 2016 18:59
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Can't believe that CLINTON.FEDCHARGES.2016 is still at sell 91. Why? Also with the convention just 2 weeks away, I doubt Bernie will endorse Clinton before then. The rules of that market are very wonky, but it's at buy 63 right now.
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Jul 6, 2016 19:03
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Bullfrog posted:Where can I find FEC filings for the candidates? I want to double check that Trump actually made over 18 million in donations for June. im pretty sure the timing question was answered in the last 2 pages of this thread. and if you don't already know which government agency is in charge of this stuff, it may not be a good idea to bet on it e: i'm not trying to be flippant either. the way to make any money on this site is to know your sources for data and news
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Jul 6, 2016 19:07
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Lutha Mahtin posted:im pretty sure the timing question was answered in the last 2 pages of this thread. and if you don't already know which government agency is in charge of this stuff, it may not be a good idea to bet on it Thanks for the helpful advice  Just made 15 bucks off it.
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Jul 6, 2016 19:08
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Bullfrog posted:Where can I find FEC filings for the candidates? I want to double check that Trump actually made over 18 million in donations for June. FEC's official website. Usually posted on/around the 20th? I can't recall the exact date off the top my head for some reason. I know it's somewhere in this thread. As to what time? Good luck on that. There are plenty of people refreshing constantly day of to try and be the first one to hit it.  Also make sure not to confuse yourself when on the FEC site: if you want to find out how much X candidate raised in June, you need the JULY report. The JUNE report details May's fundraising. Etc.
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Jul 6, 2016 19:14
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Nirvikalpa posted:Can't believe that CLINTON.FEDCHARGES.2016 is still at sell 91. Why? Yeah he just gave an interview with Wolf Blitzer where he insisted the indictment process isn't over. I don't think the endorsement is ever really coming.
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Jul 6, 2016 19:15
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Nirvikalpa posted:Can't believe that CLINTON.FEDCHARGES.2016 is still at sell 91. Why? Market won't close until the end date, which I believe is the end of December.
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Jul 6, 2016 19:15
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Bullfrog posted:Thanks for the helpful advice Your first post says you are looking for Trump's June FEC numbers, and your second post seems to say you've already made money off this information. If this is what you're saying, this can't be right, because his June numbers won't be released until July 20.
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Jul 6, 2016 19:15
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C7ty1 posted:FEC's official website. Usually posted on/around the 20th? I can't recall the exact date off the top my head for some reason. I know it's somewhere in this thread. Yep, figured it out! Thanks.
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Jul 6, 2016 19:17
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Nirvikalpa posted:Can't believe that CLINTON.FEDCHARGES.2016 is still at sell 91. Why? It has nothing to do with the actual rules now. It's entirely based on people's willingness to have their money stuck in the market until the end of the year. Every month you'll see it steadily rise closer and closer to .99 until about probably mid-November or December when it'll finally clear out.
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Jul 6, 2016 19:39
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"Will Bernie Sanders endorse Hillary Clinton before the 2016 Democratic National Convention?" is going nuts right now. 'Yes' just skyrocketed.
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Jul 7, 2016 00:28
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showbiz_liz posted:"Will Bernie Sanders endorse Hillary Clinton before the 2016 Democratic National Convention?" is going nuts right now. 'Yes' just skyrocketed. Because of https://twitter.com/mitchellreports/status/750806523832627200 And https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/750849784613773315?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
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Jul 7, 2016 01:34
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Unrelated to Bernie endorsing Hillary but still interesting: https://twitter.com/costareports/status/750761105975222272
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Jul 7, 2016 01:42
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Bernie twisted the knife in me one more time, just when I think okay he'll never endorse, time to buy NO, he starts having common sense. Bernie, I made thousands on you so you just had to cost me 60 bucks didnt you?
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Jul 7, 2016 04:29
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Lutha Mahtin posted:there's a new market on whether california will approve marijuana legalization a very good joke
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Jul 7, 2016 07:19
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