Auspol June/Election - hang parliament - The Something Awful Forums

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Auspol June/Election - hang parliament

Solemn Sloth: Jul 11, 2015; Baby you can shout at me,
But you can't need my eyes.

Mr Chips posted:

So the Liberal candidate will probably retain the seat Grey, which he's had for a long time now. Why in the gently caress were people in Whyalla voting for the Liberal candidate? If it was Pt Pirie you could attribute such patterns to lead poisoning, but Whyalla?

Whyalla Wipeout

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:15

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 17:41

Solemn Sloth: Jul 11, 2015; Baby you can shout at me,
But you can't need my eyes.

MonoAus posted:

I think this was a good election to lose tbh.

Agreed. What's another three years of chipping away at the fabric of the welfare state, keeping on full steam ahead subsidising fossil fuels, and horse trading with Pauline Hanson to get legislation through the senate.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:17

G-Spot Run: Jun 28, 2005

Anidav posted:

So they will still get stable majority government r-r-right

I dunno if "stable" is the word I'd use for a knife-edge result that inched towards majority on postals and pre-polls.

It is a "good" election to lose with the greater economic climate if you have the money to survive the winter and the mental wherewithal to put 2 and 2 together and vote Labour/3rd Party next time around.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:18

Amethyst: Mar 28, 2004; I CANNOT HELP BUT MAKE THE DCSS THREAD A FETID SWAMP OF UNFUN POSTING
plz notice me trunk-senpai

MonoAus posted:

I think this was a good election to lose tbh.

Yeah, it's definitely worth sustaining a pointless tax cut, tertiary education deregulation and budget cuts, 3 more years of primary and secondary education under funding, the undermining of the welfare and health systems, and complete inaction on climate change for speculative short term political advantage. You are a smart man.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:19

Cartoon: Jun 20, 2008; poop

Snod. posted:

Abbott cometh

Bring it!

Graic Gabtar posted:

The only thing shocking about that article is that it took three people to write about 500 words.

Well that and MYUB couldn't be hosed c/ping it.

starkebn posted:

they reviewed it for, like, two years

The brain dead shmuckkos of this world need something to clutch at their pearls about. "Oh no those nasty Greens stole some of our progressives! We better torture some refugees until they see the error of their ways and return to us! We'll forgive them!" :fuckoff:

What worries me at the moment isn't our lack of government federally, it is all the poo poo that is being flown under the radar in the States and Local governments while we are distracted by this bizarre minimalist theatre. Things like the damning revelations about the Lindt cafe seige.

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/lindt-cafe-siege-scipione-burn-say-they-gave-no-advice-or-orders-inquest-hears-20160705-gpyn3f.html

quote:

Lindt cafe siege: Scipione, Burn say they gave no advice or orders, inquest hears July 5, 2016 - 12:30PM Patrick Begley Journalist

NSW Police Commissioner Andrew Scipione indicated through a police lawyer he was still prepared to give evidence at the Lindt cafe siege inquest. Photo: Dallas Kilponen

Radio malfunction at crucial time, inquest told

Second cop contradicts superiors over strategy

The highest ranked police officers in NSW will tell an inquest they gave no orders or advice on how to end the deadly Lindt cafe siege, their lawyer has said. Coroner Michael Barnes is yet to decide if he should call as witnesses Commissioner Andrew Scipione and his deputy, counter-terrorism head Catherine Burn, who occupied those roles on the day of the 2014 siege. The inquest has previously heard Mr Scipione and Ms Burn had conversations late on the night of the siege with the most senior officer in charge, police commander Mark Jenkins. Counsel for the police, Ian Freckelton, QC, said on Tuesday that while the pair were prepared to give evidence in person he saw little "forensic utility" in it. "The position of Scipione and Burn and [then acting deputy commissioner Jeff] Loy is that they did not give any orders, directions or provide any guidance or advice in respect of the conduct of the siege on the day," Dr Freckelton said. "They will say that in their statements."

Lawyers for the families of killed hostages Tori Johnson and Katrina Dawson requested the court obtain evidence from Mr Scipione, Ms Burn and Mr Loy. At 10.57pm on the night of the siege, Mr Scipione and Mr Jenkins discussed a "deliberate action" plan to storm the cafe, taking the gunman Man Haron Monis by surprise. A police log recorded: "DA plan to occur as last resort � COP". Mr Jenkins was questioned for hours in May about a series of miscommunications. He said he had not been told Monis had made Mr Johnson kneel on the ground at 2.06am or fired a shot at 2.09am. On Tuesday afternoon, a deputy tactical commander became emotional in the witness stand as he spoke about his call to send police officers in to storm the cafe at 2.13am. "I expected that place to probably blow up at some point in time when they were in there and all those mates to not come out," he said, his voice faltering. The deputy tactical commander said he had been relieving in a superior position on the night of the siege and would ordinarily have been a member of the team entering the building. He only made the call to initiate the emergency action plan when his commander's radio malfunctioned and the order failed to go through. The deputy tactical commander was questioned again about the crucial 10 minutes between Monis firing in the direction of a group of escaping hostages and his killing of Mr Dawson. The officer said that time was spent gathering information about what had happened but he had not tried to establish if the shot was aimed at the hostages.

The inquest continues.

Or this bit of wtf?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-06/inner-west-council--tight-security-sydney-westconnex-protest/7572236

quote:

Inner West Council: WestConnex protests, tight security in wake of May's rowdy meeting By Jean Kennedy Updated about 2 hours ago

There was a heavy police presence, compulsory registration and bag checks at last night's meeting of Sydney's newly-merged Inner West Council, after ugly protests in May saw an administrator get spat on.

Key points:

Residents furious after being forced to undergo bag checks at meeting
Heated exchanges with administrator over Westconnex project, attendee says
Meeting ends peacefully after almost four hours
At least a dozen police officers and security guards watched on as residents outside staged a peaceful protest against the unpopular WestConnex road project and the forced merger of Leichhardt, Marrickville and Ashfield councils.

There were long queue to get inside, with people having to register and undergo bag checks before being escorted upstairs by security guards in two small lifts, taking about eight people at a time. About 200 protesters drowned out administrator Richard Pearson during the meeting last month and police were eventually forced to call riot squad officers. Sydney student Nicky Minus, 26, pleaded guilty to offensive conduct after spitting in the face of the Mr Pearson and has been given an 18-month good behaviour bond. She stayed away from last night's meeting. Camperdown resident Joern Harris said he had come hoping for some action. "I'm here to get arrested, because I'm riled up about it, someone's got to do something," he said. Ashfield resident Jo Alley was also furious about the screening process. "It's appalling, on the way in people were having their bags searched and are being forced to give out identification and register even though that wasn't announced on the website."

Former Leichardt mayor Rochelle Porteous said incorrect procedure and heavy security at last night's meeting was over the top. "This council meeting was not open and people were being required to register and many people were being stopped from actually entering into council chambers," Ms Porteous said. "This was not democracy in practice, this was a dictatorship in practice." Government 'hell-bent' on WestConnex project. One person inside said there were heated exchanges with Mr Pearson, who vowed to strongly oppose the $16 billion WestConnex project in the same way the three councils had, which he has taken over. "I'd love to stop the project, but we have to consider what else can be done if the Government is hell bent on rolling it out," Mr Pearson said. e said the council had hired senior counsel Tim Roberston weeks ago to provide legal advice and provide advice on the prospects of a legal challenge to the project. But former Leichhardt mayor Darcy Byrne was among many who fiercely criticised the delays in getting a legal report, saying homes were already being demolished and the matter was not being treated with enough urgency. "It is not good enough to turn up here and say that you are looking into it because this project is proceeding," he said. "And I simply do not understand why you have not commissioned a report from a QC or an SC and actually bring a written report back to this meeting to challenge the WestConnex project.

Protestors ask administrator to genuinely represent views

Ashfield resident John Lazanno said he "cautiously" welcomed the news the new council backed the opposition to the WestConnex project as the three merged councils had done, but said it was not enough. "I ask that you do much, much more," he told the administrator, to loud cheers. "To genuinely represent our views, as you've stated you seek to do, you need to actively take measures to halt any activities connected to the WestConnex within our new local government area.
"By this I mean instigating injunctions and, taking legal actions and co-ordinating your efforts with other councils opposed to the project, such as the City of Sydney." There were heated exchanges at times, with the administrator defending his efforts but promising to speed up the process of gaining legal advice, saying he would make it a matter of "upmost urgency". He also agreed to provide funding for a full-time community organiser to campaign against the WestConnex project and act as a go-between for community concerns. Until now, the position had only been part time.

The meeting lasted almost four hours and ended peacefully.

And of course this piece of vitally important news

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-06/'enraged'-son-dobs-dad-in-for-'torching-cannabis-plants'/7572304

quote:

'Enraged' son dobs dad in for 'torching cannabis plants' Posted about 3 hours ago

An irate man has called police to complain that his father destroyed his cannabis plants during a domestic dispute in the Northern Territory. Police were called to a property at Humpty Doo, south-east of Darwin, about 6:30pm Tuesday. Duty Superintendent Louise Jorgensen said no charges were laid or anticipated because any evidence of a drug stash had been destroyed. "Things came to a head yesterday evening and the father allegedly threw all of his son's cannabis plants onto the bonfire and completely destroyed them," Duty Superintendent Jorgensen said. "This enraged the son, he called us and told us everything basically." Police said officers arrived at the property and could only shake their heads while the son gathered up his remaining property and left to stay with relatives. "The evidence has been destroyed as has the son's reputation... people don't usually come forward to say their drug stash has been destroyed or stolen but there you go," the police woman said.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:21

gay picnic defence: Oct 5, 2009; I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

MonoAus posted:

I think this was a good election to lose tbh.

Yeah, in a way the ALP is positioned beautifully. They've come out looking like the victors but bear none of the responsibility for the upcoming economic mess.

I don't think much of the wosrt of the LNP policies has a chance of making it through that senate.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:27

MonoAus: Nov 5, 2012

Amethyst posted:

Yeah, it's definitely worth sustaining a pointless tax cut, tertiary education deregulation and budget cuts, 3 more years of primary and secondary education under funding, the undermining of the welfare and health systems, and complete inaction on climate change for speculative short term political advantage. You are a smart man.

Or perhaps winning on such a knife edge result will give the Liberals 3 years to implode in to nothingness. You make it sound as if Labor (edit: winning with a minority government) would have actually had any positive impact on the things you've listed. You are a needlessly aggressive man.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:28

SMILLENNIALSMILLEN: Jun 26, 2009

MonoAus posted:

Or perhaps winning on such a knife edge result will give the Liberals 3 years to implode in to nothingness. You make it sound as if Labor (edit: winning with a minority government) would have actually had any positive impact on the things you've listed. You are a needlessly aggressive man.

True but in this case theyre right.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:33

Schlesische: Jul 4, 2012

gay picnic defence posted:

I don't think much of the wosrt of the LNP policies has a chance of making it through that senate.

Yeah, that's my view.

I doubt that stupid Labor-Unions beatup commission will pass, their plans to "fix" tertiary education probably aren't going much further and they definitely won't be able to touch Medicare.

This is going to be a very boring parliament.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:34

Graic Gabtar: Dec 19, 2014; squat my posts

Cartoon posted:

What worries me at the moment isn't our lack of government federally, it is all the poo poo that is being flown under the radar in the States and Local governments while we are distracted by this bizarre minimalist theatre. Things like the damning revelations about the Lindt cafe seige.

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/lindt-cafe-siege-scipione-burn-say-they-gave-no-advice-or-orders-inquest-hears-20160705-gpyn3f.html

Or this bit of wtf?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-06/inner-west-council--tight-security-sydney-westconnex-protest/7572236

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Atks5rRqQkg

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:36

Amethyst: Mar 28, 2004; I CANNOT HELP BUT MAKE THE DCSS THREAD A FETID SWAMP OF UNFUN POSTING
plz notice me trunk-senpai

MonoAus posted:

Or perhaps winning on such a knife edge result will give the Liberals 3 years to implode in to nothingness. You make it sound as if Labor (edit: winning with a minority government) would have actually had any positive impact on the things you've listed. You are a needlessly aggressive man.

If this election has taught us anything it's that trying to game the political system is doomed to fail. There is no such thing as a "good loss". Parties take terms where they can. Viewing this mess as a long term positive is just wrong-headed.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:37

Stoca Zola: Jun 28, 2008

Mr Chips posted:

So the Liberal candidate will probably retain the seat Grey, which he's had for a long time now. Why in the gently caress were people in Whyalla voting for the Liberal candidate? If it was Pt Pirie you could attribute such patterns to lead poisoning, but Whyalla?

We weren't:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-20499-6983.htm
For example.
Whyalla is only 20% of Grey and according to poll bludger always votes strongly Labor but we're stuck with what the rest of Grey votes for, unfortunately. I don't know anyone who votes Liberal here.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:39

Cthulhu Dreams: Dec 11, 2010; If I pretend to be Cthulhu no one will know I'm a baseball robot.

Amethyst posted:

Yeah, it's definitely worth sustaining a pointless tax cut, tertiary education deregulation and budget cuts, 3 more years of primary and secondary education under funding, the undermining of the welfare and health systems, and complete inaction on climate change for speculative short term political advantage. You are a smart man.

I'm confident that regardless of the lower house that the chance of any of that passing the senate can basically be described as LOL.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:39

Amethyst: Mar 28, 2004; I CANNOT HELP BUT MAKE THE DCSS THREAD A FETID SWAMP OF UNFUN POSTING
plz notice me trunk-senpai

Any greens in this thread have any thoughts on their failure this election? It's a bad result, whichever way you look at it. Di Natalie's attempt to bring the party to the centre looks like a completely failed gambit. How on earth can they break this 10% barrier?

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:39

Synthbuttrange: May 6, 2007

ABC election analyst Antony Green says after the latest counting, the Coalition has secured 73 seats and could win the 76 seats needed to form a majority government. Follow live

noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:44

EvilElmo: May 10, 2009

MonoAus posted:

Or perhaps winning on such a knife edge result will give the Liberals 3 years to implode in to nothingness. You make it sound as if Labor (edit: winning with a minority government) would have actually had any positive impact on the things you've listed. You are a needlessly aggressive man.

Well, Labor aren't sustaining a pointless tax cut, they're not deregulating uni (they're adding some to the vocational training sector), they're funding schools in like with gonski, they're improving the welfare and health systems (lots of measures, one being the GP rebate) and they're bringing in an ETS.

So yeah, you're right, Libs and Labor, exactly the same whats the difference.

Amethyst posted:

Any greens in this thread have any thoughts on their failure this election? It's a bad result, whichever way you look at it. Di Natalie's attempt to bring the party to the centre looks like a completely failed gambit. How on earth can they break this 10% barrier?

Tried asking this earlier, all I got was that it was a success. But they shouldn't have gone after Albo or Tanya.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:52

Anidav: Feb 25, 2010; ahhh fuck its the rats again

I'm more worried that the bad nutter senate will just attach nutter clauses to current policies and pass most things and make Australia slightly crazier.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:55

Amoeba102: Jan 22, 2010

SynthOrange posted:

ABC election analyst Antony Green says after the latest counting, the Coalition has secured 73 seats and could win the 76 seats needed to form a majority government. Follow live

noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

quote from ABC's election robot:
I think they can get to 76...73 is a definite. 74 is also likely. 75 is possible. 76 is less possible.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:55

Raged: Jul 21, 2003; A revolution of beats

SynthOrange posted:

ABC election analyst Antony Green says after the latest counting, the Coalition has secured 73 seats and could win the 76 seats needed to form a majority government. Follow live

noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

gently caress this poo poo

Death is certain

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:56

Cleretic: Feb 3, 2010; Ignore my posts!
I'm aggressively wrong about everything!

Amethyst posted:

Any greens in this thread have any thoughts on their failure this election? It's a bad result, whichever way you look at it. Di Natalie's attempt to bring the party to the centre looks like a completely failed gambit. How on earth can they break this 10% barrier?

Record returns in the seats surrounding Melbourne, including still being in the running for most of them and (I admit I'm not following) possibly even winning Batman. That doesn't look like failure to me, although it can all be a matter of targeting the right seats. Hard to unseat people like Albo, especially in one election.

Breaking that 10% barrier is a challenge, and one that's beyond me to figure out, but the momentum from potentially winning lower-house seats can't hurt.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:57

GrandMaster: Aug 15, 2004; laidback

Amethyst posted:

Any greens in this thread have any thoughts on their failure this election? It's a bad result, whichever way you look at it. Di Natalie's attempt to bring the party to the centre looks like a completely failed gambit. How on earth can they break this 10% barrier?

I wouldn't consider it a total failure - seats like Wills, Batman, Higgins and Melb Ports where they were concentrating their resources had really significant swings towards the Greens, to the point where they are definitely contenders.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 02:59

Solemn Sloth: Jul 11, 2015; Baby you can shout at me,
But you can't need my eyes.

EvilElmo posted:

Well, Labor aren't sustaining a pointless tax cut, they're not deregulating uni (they're adding some to the vocational training sector), they're funding schools in like with gonski, they're improving the welfare and health systems (lots of measures, one being the GP rebate) and they're bringing in an ETS.

So yeah, you're right, Libs and Labor, exactly the same whats the difference.

Learn to read

# ? Jul 6, 2016 03:01

Cthulhu Dreams: Dec 11, 2010; If I pretend to be Cthulhu no one will know I'm a baseball robot.

Cleretic posted:

Record returns in the seats surrounding Melbourne, including still being in the running for most of them and (I admit I'm not following) possibly even winning Batman. That doesn't look like failure to me, although it can all be a matter of targeting the right seats. Hard to unseat people like Albo, especially in one election.

Breaking that 10% barrier is a challenge, and one that's beyond me to figure out, but the momentum from potentially winning lower-house seats can't hurt.

I think there is room to refine the pitch for the Senate as well - there is a play around social services that I don't think is part of the greens brand enough? Hard to tell though.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 03:03

snoremac: Jul 27, 2012; I LOVE SEEING DEAD BABIES ON 𝕏, THE EVERYTHING APP. IT'S WORTH IT FOR THE FOLLOWING TAB.

I think Andrew Bolt's love of Abbott is reaching critical levels. On his blog today he's celebrating his "revival" by citing a poll where the preferred Liberal leader among voters is Turnbull 71 Abbott 25 while among Coalition voters it's Turnbull 60 Abbott 38. Even his readers are calling him out on it. Some of them.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 03:03

EvilElmo: May 10, 2009

GrandMaster posted:

I wouldn't consider it a total failure - seats like Wills, Batman, Higgins and Melb Ports where they were concentrating their resources had really significant swings towards the Greens, to the point where they are definitely contenders.

Higgins will go back to being a safe Liberal seat after this election. Kelly will campaign hard on local issues, she isn't Sophie, it was a good campaign to try and paint her like she was.

Melb Ports, you came in 3rd, not really a contender.

Batman, same as Higgins. You'll need a better candidate to win the seat. Even with all the poo poo on Feeney, you ended up 3% behind.

Wills, at best 2 elections away.

And 2 senators down.

Solemn Sloth posted:

Learn to read

You'll need to explain this one to me. Mono said he thinks it was a good loss for Labor. Amethyst called him out and said that's stupid because of poo poo Liberal policies. Mono said Labor wouldn't have done anything on those issues anyway. Have I missed something?

EvilElmo fucked around with this message at 03:06 on Jul 6, 2016

# ? Jul 6, 2016 03:04

Synthbuttrange: May 6, 2007

AEC has both 68 with 3 close.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 03:04

Brown Paper Bag: Nov 3, 2012

Lol one nations candidate in WA is awaiting sentencing in NSW for larceny

# ? Jul 6, 2016 03:06

MysticalMachineGun: Apr 5, 2005

The Guardian posted:

Senate reform did not cause the return of Pauline Hanson. Here's why
Ben Raue

It is now almost certain that Pauline Hanson will return to the Australian parliament as a senator for Queensland after 18 years, and her party has a real chance of picking up two other seats in New South Wales and Queensland.

This surprise result has sparked criticism of the recent reforms to the Senate voting system, with some figures such as Craig Emerson blaming the reforms for the resurgence of One Nation.

https://twitter.com/DrCraigEmerson/status/749495454975430656

Some have argued that Hanson would have been stopped by other parties directing preferences against her, and that the Senate reforms makes it impossible for this to be achieved. In reality, Hanson and One Nation did just fine out of preferences under the old system of party-controlled preferences.

Hanson and One Nation were once such pariahs they were unable to gain enough preferences to win seats.

The One Nation leader was defeated for re-election in the seat of Blair in 1998 thanks to Labor and Nationals preferences flowing to the Liberal party.

Her party failed to win numerous Senate seats in 1998 and 2001 thanks to adverse preference arrangements, despite a respectable primary vote. Yet that time has passed.

One Nation�s ability to attract preferences has improved significantly since it collapsed into just another micro party.

This may be due to Hanson being seen as a more acceptable figure, or just that the growth of rightwing minor parties gives the party more preference options.

In 2013, One Nation received high preference rankings in Queensland from the Animal Justice party, Senator Online, the Shooters and Fishers, the Australian Christians, Katter�s Australian party, the Democratic Labour party, the Liberal Democrats and Family First.

The party is now fully rehabilitated among the ranks of small rightwing minor parties, which between them command a sizeable slice of the Senate vote.

If Hanson were to have polled the same vote in Queensland as she did at a half-Senate election conducted under the old system, she would have been very likely to win anyway.

It is true that Malcolm Turnbull�s decision to call a double dissolution has helped One Nation win additional seats, as it has helped other small parties. But a double dissolution wasn�t a necessary consequence of Senate reform � in hindsight it is clear that Turnbull would have been better placed to fix the voting system and then tolerate his existing crossbench until their terms expired in 2019.

The double dissolution enhanced One Nation�s performance, but it is not the cause of Hanson�s election.

The election of Pauline Hanson shouldn�t obscure the reality that Senate voting reform has largely achieved its purpose.

Before Senate voting reform, many voters didn�t understand where their vote was going, and it was difficult to cast a formal vote using preferences that you decided.

It was also possible for parties with an extremely small vote to overtake many bigger parties and win seats off preferences from voters who had never heard of them. This problem has been thoroughly solved.

We don�t yet know how many preferences will flow, but we do know that the preferences will reflect the decisions of individual votes.

We can roughly predict that the minor parties that win seats will be those that win more votes than other minor parties, and if a party overtakes another on preferences it will be off a sizeable primary vote of its own.

Despite a lot of commentary suggesting otherwise, Senate reform wasn�t designed to stop minor parties from being elected, and it hasn�t.

The proportional voting system still makes it possible for small parties to get elected.

This would even be true if this election weren�t a double dissolution � Hanson, Derryn Hinch, Jacqui Lambie, Nick Xenophon and many Greens candidates would have likely been elected if each state were only electing six senators.

You shouldn�t design voting systems to achieve a particular political outcome � this almost always backfires.

We can�t rely on the voting system to achieve outcomes any of us might want, including blocking fringe parties such as One Nation.

Hanson�s One Nation has returned to the parliament not because of the voting system, or even because of the prime minister calling a double dissolution, but because over 4% of Australians and more than 9% of Queenslanders voted for One Nation on their Senate ballot.

Those who are looking for an answer should look at those voters, not the voting system, for an answer.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 03:06

Lid: Feb 18, 2005; And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.

snoremac posted:

I think Andrew Bolt's love of Abbott is reaching critical levels. On his blog today he's celebrating his "revival" by citing a poll where the preferred Liberal leader among voters is Turnbull 71 Abbott 25 while among Coalition voters it's Turnbull 60 Abbott 38. Even his readers are calling him out on it. Some of them.

You weren't kidding

quote:

Once dismissed completely, Tony Abbott is now rising in the polls - even without doing any campaigning or signalling any intent:
The latest Morgan poll of 3587 electors, conducted yesterday following the weekend election, shows 51 per cent regard Mr Turnbull as better prime minister, just ahead of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten on 47 per cent.

That’s a decrease of six percentage points in a month for Mr Turnbull and a 23 point increase for Mr Shorten in the same period. But Mr Turnbull is clearly preferred as Liberal leader over Tony Abbott by 71 per cent to 25 per cent.
But when only those who identify as Coalition voters are asked who they would prefer as party leader, the result becomes closer — 60 per cent for Mr Turnbull and 38 per cent for Mr Abbott.
Discount also for the please-no-more-changes-yet factor.
The mere fact that Turnbull seems so obsessed by Abbott - snubbing him, trashing his record and now even blaming him for his election humiliation - suggests that Turnbull sees what many journalists still don’t: that Abbott is his chief rival.

Cognitive Dissonance is an amazing thing.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 03:10

Cleretic: Feb 3, 2010; Ignore my posts!
I'm aggressively wrong about everything!

EvilElmo posted:

Higgins will go back to being a safe Liberal seat after this election. Kelly will campaign hard on local issues, she isn't Sophie, it was a good campaign to try and paint her like she was.

Melb Ports, you came in 3rd, not really a contender.

Batman, same as Higgins. You'll need a better candidate to win the seat. Even with all the poo poo on Feeney, you ended up 3% behind.

Wills, at best 2 elections away.

And 2 senators down.

You'll need to explain this one to me. Mono said he thinks it was a good loss for Labor. Amethyst called him out and said that's stupid because of poo poo Liberal policies. Mono said Labor wouldn't have done anything on those issues anyway. Have I missed something?

The Batman candidate has been running for so long that her first campaign posters had her with her baby, who is now in his teens. It wasn't just the Feeney dirt bringing her that far, it was momentum that started back in the Children Overboard election.

And that's the key word: momentum. You can't always count on a big upset to change a seat, oftentimes you have to work at it, chip away. Make your presence known in the electorate both as a party and individual, and build on and on from that. This won't be the last time Jason runs for Higgins, nor will it be the last time Steph runs for Ports.

That's how you change seats when they aren't held by Mirabellas.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 03:13

SMILLENNIALSMILLEN: Jun 26, 2009

Lnp governance does appreciable damage to the nation. Every opportunity ceded creates negative progress in the country which has to be remedied by more civic minded people while giving ammunition to those who cry that government is the problem. There is no bright side

# ? Jul 6, 2016 03:13

Mr Chips: Jun 27, 2007; Whose arse do I have to blow smoke up to get rid of this baby?

Stoca Zola posted:

We weren't:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-20499-6983.htm
For example.
Whyalla is only 20% of Grey and according to poll bludger always votes strongly Labor but we're stuck with what the rest of Grey votes for, unfortunately. I don't know anyone who votes Liberal here.

Indeed, it does seem that after 2pp Whyalla and Pt Augusta don't care too much for the tories: http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-20499-183.htm#tcpbpp

Kind of sucks that they're countered by all the rich seachangers in Pt Lincoln and farmers.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 03:16

Solemn Sloth: Jul 11, 2015; Baby you can shout at me,
But you can't need my eyes.

SynthOrange posted:

AEC has both 68 with 3 close.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 03:27

Amethyst: Mar 28, 2004; I CANNOT HELP BUT MAKE THE DCSS THREAD A FETID SWAMP OF UNFUN POSTING
plz notice me trunk-senpai

Would Hanson have gotten any seats without the Half-quota from double dissolution?

# ? Jul 6, 2016 03:30

Cartoon: Jun 20, 2008; poop

Is nobody connecting the rise of Hansonism to her being wholly owned and operated by Channel 7? They gave her the public exposure that normalised her at a time when a bunch of right nut jobs were looking for an alternative to NTATA lite. None the less it's always better to have your fascists and racists out in the open where everyone can see them for the garbage that they are. It's when they hide behind 'measured' language and still do abhorrent stuff that I worry the most.

If this election tells us anything it is that the 'liberal' voter doesn't give a single hoot about anything other than being on the winning side and their membership in the "I've got a biggun'" (Bank account) lottery. If you vote enough for the unashamed seal clubbing money grubbers the magic has to rub off eventually! They only ever shed votes to the far right while the rest of the electorate either buy the lies and accidentally vote against their own interest or join the fractured remnants of the issues based side of politics. Now running at ~ 25% of the vote.

Perhaps what the ALP needs to take away from this is that they might pick up more votes by actually standing for things in a 100% no compromises way. Even as weird a policy as ending off shore processing may have scored them some of that ~25%. The middle ground is either firmly in the hands of the small 'l' liberals or not worth the cost of achieving while all the issue based votes are clearly up for the taking.

Hanson would definitely have gotten at least one QLD senate seat in a normal quota.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 03:33

Doctor Spaceman: Jul 6, 2010; "Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

EvilElmo posted:

Melb Ports, you came in 3rd, not really a contender.

That's not how it works, and you know it. On primaries the Libs got 41, Labour got 27 and the Greens got 25. A slight shift in primaries or preferences would have resulted in a Greens / Liberal 2PP contest (with the Labor MP preferencing the Libs because he's a massive cock).

quote:

And 2 senators down.

It could be just one Senator (~~Kim~~ Simms from SA is definitely gone), or it could be more than 2 (Siewart, McKim and Rice are all potentially vulnerable) depending on how preferences flow.

I think the SA loss is clearly a result of Xenophon's popularity, but other than that it's a bit early to do a post-mortem.

Amethyst posted:

Would Hanson have gotten any seats without the Half-quota from double dissolution?

It's very possible. ONP has 9% of first preferences in Queensland at the moment (with the normal quota being ~14%), so it would depend on preference flows and ballot exhaustion.

Doctor Spaceman fucked around with this message at 03:43 on Jul 6, 2016

# ? Jul 6, 2016 03:38

Burn Down Canberra: Oct 27, 2005; GAME PLANS? We don't need no stinking game plans.

Cleretic posted:

The Batman candidate has been running for so long that her first campaign posters had her with her baby, who is now in his teens. It wasn't just the Feeney dirt bringing her that far, it was momentum that started back in the Children Overboard election.

And that's the key word: momentum. You can't always count on a big upset to change a seat, oftentimes you have to work at it, chip away. Make your presence known in the electorate both as a party and individual, and build on and on from that. This won't be the last time Jason runs for Higgins, nor will it be the last time Steph runs for Ports.

That's how you change seats when they aren't held by Mirabellas.

The greens have gone backwards in grayndler (federally) since 2010. This is on paper one of the most leftwing seats in the country. It has two greens state members in the area it goes over and the greens got a favourable redistribution

Result a swing to albanese.

I live here and i was pretty confident albanese would win the seat but the greens are going backwards here federally. Finishing third to the liberals on primary again after finishing second in 2010. There are enough leftwing minor parties to probably push the greens into calculations for 2pp but its not a great result.

They have finished about where they did in 2004 (21 percent of the primary vote)

# ? Jul 6, 2016 03:47

Amethyst: Mar 28, 2004; I CANNOT HELP BUT MAKE THE DCSS THREAD A FETID SWAMP OF UNFUN POSTING
plz notice me trunk-senpai

Yeah Channel 7's rehabilitation of Pauline Hanson is shameful.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 03:48

Amethyst: Mar 28, 2004; I CANNOT HELP BUT MAKE THE DCSS THREAD A FETID SWAMP OF UNFUN POSTING
plz notice me trunk-senpai

Burn Down Canberra posted:

The greens have gone backwards in grayndler (federally) since 2010. This is on paper one of the most leftwing seats in the country. It has two greens state members in the area it goes over and the greens got a favourable redistribution

Result a swing to albanese.

I live here and i was pretty confident albanese would win the seat but the greens are going backwards here federally. Finishing third to the liberals on primary again after finishing second in 2010. There are enough leftwing minor parties to probably push the greens into calculations for 2pp but its not a great result.

They have finished about where they did in 2004 (21 percent of the primary vote)

Going up against a super star like Albo was probably hopeless. They won the state seat of Newtown so I can see why they thought they had a chance. I'm not really sure why they went backwards, probably because labor got spooked and went nuts campaigning there. I recieved at least 5 letters from the labor party and around 2 from the greens.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 03:50

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 17:41

birdstrike: Oct 30, 2008; i;m gay

Burn Down Canberra posted:

The greens have gone backwards in grayndler (federally) since 2010. This is on paper one of the most leftwing seats in the country. It has two greens state members in the area it goes over and the greens got a favourable redistribution

No they didn't.

# ? Jul 6, 2016 03:50

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