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A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

Riso posted:

Your idea doesn't work because EU institutions just funnel money into local ones.
The whole point of a hypothetical is to go beyond reality and assume something else.

doverhog posted:

Are you going to create a parallel state apparatus to manage this support? If you are going to such lengths why not replace rather than co-exist-with the old one? Hell, that's a plan Germany just might get behind.
Yes, a parallel state apparatus. And yeah, in the long run it could probably replace it, but the basic idea here was to come up with a compromise between "These people need money", "We don't want to give money to these corrupt states", and "We don't want to give up sovereignty". If the system works, I'm thinking people could get behind deeper integration afterward.

GaussianCopula posted:

What would be the goal of such a "benefits" system. Are we talking about social benefits, investment funds or what do you have specifically in mind and about what dimensions are we talking, given that the EU already has an operating budget of €143 billion.
Social benefits and support for entrepreneurs (as in assistance with how to get poo poo started, not simply giving people money), stuff like that. The first to create a more stable environment for the latter to function in. Also to help offset the structural issues of the EU which necessitates internal transfers by definition. Not sure about the operating budget, what do you think? Since it's an EU-wide system, let's say it's paid for by an EU-wide tax on high earners (the people who benefit most from the EU I'm pretty sure). Tax brackets would be determined according to purchasing power parity, to avoid the issue of people who are functionally better off not paying just because they're nominally not making as much.

GaussianCopula posted:

Keep in mind that Greece today has a GDP per capita that is almost 20% higher than that of Slovenia and you don't here about a humanitarian emergency from them.
There are 3 times as many unemployed people in Greece, and the country is significantly more unequal. A simple GDP per capita comparison might not be appropriate. In any case, Greece is a tiny part of the EU. There's no reason it has to be the center of this discussion, seeing as my suggestion would in theory be for all European citizens.

A Buttery Pastry fucked around with this message at 15:27 on Jul 8, 2016

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Libluini
May 18, 2012

I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...
Grimey Drawer

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Here's a hypothetical: How would you feel about a federal wealth transfer system run entirely by the EU, on top of the national institutions, which would help prevent the worst miseries in countries like Greece without simply "funneling money into a corrupt system"? Basically, an EU-wide benefits system which was run and designed according to Northern European specifications. Perhaps even designed in such a way that the only countries with any say over how it was run are the ones who are net contributors to the EU budget. The whole point being to support the economy and welfare in poorer states, without supporting corrupt state apparatuses, building up a healthier relationship between state and citizen than currently exists in some places. (The state being the EU in this case, rather than nation states.)

Obviously meant for GC, but I'll take all replies.

This is a great idea! It needs some modifications though, because there are problems.

1. The European Parliament needs a lot more power to prevent member states from just abusing/stealing whatever they can. And by member states I mean rich elites in those countries.

2. You're seriously underestimating how much money is needed to support welfare and economy in poorer states, since even the richer nations of the EU sometimes struggle with their own welfare problems. This Federal Wealth Transfer System needs a European tax, levied by the European Union onto all member states, to fund it. (Of course the more a nation needs support, the less they have to pay this "Unification Tax".)

3. The Unification Tax has to be large enough to also support a Supranational, real European military force, because you will need a lot of soldiers to put down the uprisings of hundreds of retarded nationalist organizations across Europe if 1. and 2. are implemented.

If all those preconditions are met, your system will work great! In fact, I'm tempted to create my own party to lobby for this.

Riso
Oct 11, 2008

by merry exmarx
You could argue it already has a tax because EU demands states levy a minimum VAT to fund the membership contributions.

GaussianCopula
Jun 5, 2011
Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

A Buttery Pastry posted:

"We don't want to give up sovereignty".

No such system can succeed if the administering authority can't change legislation. It will end up being just another money sink.


A Buttery Pastry posted:

There are 3 times as many unemployed people in Greece, and the country is significantly more unequal. A simple GDP per capita comparison might not be appropriate. In any case, Greece is a tiny part of the EU. There's no reason it has to be the center of this discussion, seeing as my suggestion would in theory be for all European citizens.

The point is that the (assumed) extreme poverty in Greece is not caused by the Greek nation having not enough resources to take care of everyone but by dysfunctional administration.

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Social benefits

Nope. This would be gigantic moral hazard. Countries would no longer be incentivized to actually create an environment in which businesses can thrive as they get more money the more unemployed they have.

A Buttery Pastry posted:

support for entrepreneurs (as in assistance with how to get poo poo started, not simply giving people money), stuff like that.

The EU is already doing that, but sure, they can increase the budget for this kind of action if the program has a strong governance to prevent abuse.


More general, I don't understand why countries like Spain, Italy and Greece need fiscal transfers to deal with the Euro, while the East European nations, who basically had to start from scratch in 1990 with regards to their economy look like they don't need it, even though they have lower GDP/capita etc.

Libluini
May 18, 2012

I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...
Grimey Drawer

GaussianCopula posted:


Nope. This would be gigantic moral hazard. Countries would no longer be incentivized to actually create an environment in which businesses can thrive as they get more money the more unemployed they have.


As I understand his transfer system, countries wouldn't actually get money, individual people would get money from the EU as if the EU was the state. The actual danger would be in poorer member states cutting their own social benefits even more, since their citizens now get help from (mostly, see my additions) other nations.

If that happens though, those states will undermine their own national identity in favor of a European identity, so that wouldn't actually be a bad outcome. :v:

GaussianCopula
Jun 5, 2011
Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

Libluini posted:

As I understand his transfer system, countries wouldn't actually get money, individual people would get money from the EU as if the EU was the state. The actual danger would be in poorer member states cutting their own social benefits even more, since their citizens now get help from (mostly, see my additions) other nations.

If that happens though, those states will undermine their own national identity in favor of a European identity, so that wouldn't actually be a bad outcome. :v:

Well, of course they would cut their own systems as much as possible. In addition the money their citizens get through the EU transfer system will be spend on goods and services in the country, which again increases the money that the specific country gets.

Libluini
May 18, 2012

I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...
Grimey Drawer

GaussianCopula posted:

Well, of course they would cut their own systems as much as possible. In addition the money their citizens get through the EU transfer system will be spend on goods and services in the country, which again increases the money that the specific country gets.

And this is a good thing. Think about it from the perspective of a poor man in one of these countries: First, they are starving because their country can't help them enough. Then the EU suddenly shows up and gives them money so they don't starve, followed by their own nation telling them to get hosed because they already get help from somewhere else.

If the EU saves you and your old country cuts you loose, what would you think?

GaussianCopula
Jun 5, 2011
Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

Libluini posted:

And this is a good thing. Think about it from the perspective of a poor man in one of these countries: First, they are starving because their country can't help them enough. Then the EU suddenly shows up and gives them money so they don't starve, followed by their own nation telling them to get hosed because they already get help from somewhere else.

If the EU saves you and your old country cuts you loose, what would you think?

I don't think that the EU image problem in net receiving countries is the big problem to be honest. At the very least their elites will prevent a Spexit, Grexit, Pexit.

Libluini
May 18, 2012

I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...
Grimey Drawer

GaussianCopula posted:

I don't think that the EU image problem in net receiving countries is the big problem to be honest. At the very least their elites will prevent a Spexit, Grexit, Pexit.

Yeah, but that's not a long-term solution, it just means wobbling along from crisis to crisis like we're doing now. I like to implement A Buttery Pastry's idea together with my own additions, just so we can finally have some stability. And less nationalism.

With his idea the wrong kind of elites (the corrupt ones), will work together with nationalists to undermine nationalism and support the EU, simply by making the people on the street hate them. It's the kind of pro-active, grass-roots approach at changing people's minds that we need.

GaussianCopula
Jun 5, 2011
Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

Libluini posted:

Yeah, but that's not a long-term solution, it just means wobbling along from crisis to crisis like we're doing now. I like to implement A Buttery Pastry's idea together with my own additions, just so we can finally have some stability. And less nationalism.

With his idea the wrong kind of elites (the corrupt ones), will work together with nationalists to undermine nationalism and support the EU, simply by making the people on the street hate them. It's the kind of pro-active, grass-roots approach at changing people's minds that we need.

I'm sure the people that are going to pay for this image campaign are going to be thrilled that they can indirectly finance the corrupt elites in the South and will in no way harbour ill feelings towards the EU. Especially once the Leave slogans are no longer propaganda but actually true.

Libluini
May 18, 2012

I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...
Grimey Drawer

GaussianCopula posted:

I'm sure the people that are going to pay for this image campaign are going to be thrilled that they can indirectly finance the corrupt elites in the South and will in no way harbour ill feelings towards the EU. Especially once the Leave slogans are no longer propaganda but actually true.

What image campaign? We're talking about a new bureaucracy influencing people's lives directly. And how are social benefits indirectly financing the elites? Because people will buy food and goods in shops owned by them? By that dumbass logic we shouldn't give anyone any benefits, because we can only not benefit those guys by starving to death voluntarily, thus depriving them of profit. This is stupid.

Hey, maybe the next time I need food I should just eat dirt from the street instead, that'll show those elites!

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:
This wouldn't just be helping out people in net receiving countries though, it could be helping out the poor in rich countries too, especially the ones in financially challenged regions. You know, the kind of regions who just voted the UK out of the EU. If those people saw the EU directly helping their friends create successful businesses or help them out when they were down on their luck then the UK would probably not have left, and would probably also have been a much better partner in the EU. The same logic applies to other rich European countries who have been flirting with the idea of leaving.

GaussianCopula posted:

No such system can succeed if the administering authority can't change legislation. It will end up being just another money sink.
There's no need to change legislation, if you create the legislation from the ground up.

GaussianCopula posted:

The point is that the (assumed) extreme poverty in Greece is not caused by the Greek nation having not enough resources to take care of everyone but by dysfunctional administration.
A dysfunctional administration that is best dealt with by completely replacing it.

GaussianCopula posted:

Nope. This would be gigantic moral hazard. Countries would no longer be incentivized to actually create an environment in which businesses can thrive as they get more money the more unemployed they have.
Well, the unemployed would get them, not the country itself. I'm not sure what the incentive would be to creating a country of unemployed though, compared to actually having the country make its own money. I mean, the unemployed would be much less beholden to you than the EU, and the politicians from the rich EU countries would look down on you even more than usual and not invite you to their cool parties. That's like 90% of the point of being a politician gone right there.

GaussianCopula posted:

More general, I don't understand why countries like Spain, Italy and Greece need fiscal transfers to deal with the Euro, while the East European nations, who basically had to start from scratch in 1990 with regards to their economy look like they don't need it, even though they have lower GDP/capita etc.
Most are not in the Euro, and not pegged to it either? And then there's a country like Latvia, which saw an exodus of young people, possibly crippling the country for generations if they don't go back.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Ligur posted:

An American New Yorker probably has less qualms about some of his tax money going to upstate rednecks vs some guy in country X being told hey, bitch, we need to fund some other guys halfway around the contient who just happened to prop their system with cheap loans, who have a completely different political system, don't speak the same language and have their own national anthem, and who also think you are an uptight foreigner gently caress.

Obviously the solution is to have a Eurozone Civil War, since we had the same issue in Antebellum America.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:
France wins by default, having the only nukes in the EU, as well as a functional military.

GaussianCopula
Jun 5, 2011
Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

A Buttery Pastry posted:

This wouldn't just be helping out people in net receiving countries though, it could be helping out the poor in rich countries too, especially the ones in financially challenged regions. You know, the kind of regions who just voted the UK out of the EU. If those people saw the EU directly helping their friends create successful businesses or help them out when they were down on their luck then the UK would probably not have left, and would probably also have been a much better partner in the EU. The same logic applies to other rich European countries who have been flirting with the idea of leaving.

This program sounds like it would be extremely expensive and I'm not sure that throwing money at people gets them to start successful businesses that easily, especially those people that are long-time unemployed and on the average the richer countries are going to give more than they recieve

A Buttery Pastry posted:

There's no need to change legislation, if you create the legislation from the ground up.

I'm not talking about the legislation needed to distribute the money but the legislation that allows entrepreneurs to succeed and small businesses to grow.

A Buttery Pastry posted:

A dysfunctional administration that is best dealt with by completely replacing it.

Sure, if we get to burn the inefficient one down first, but your proposal sounded more like a second administration focused on the distribution of money not a wholesale replacement of every service the nations are currently providing.


A Buttery Pastry posted:

Well, the unemployed would get them, not the country itself. I'm not sure what the incentive would be to creating a country of unemployed though, compared to actually having the country make its own money. I mean, the unemployed would be much less beholden to you than the EU, and the politicians from the rich EU countries would look down on you even more than usual and not invite you to their cool parties. That's like 90% of the point of being a politician gone right there.

Not actively preventing people from getting/creating jobs, but by continuing the clientelist system they have going now with even less shits given about the unemployed and the general welfare of the people. They would still get invited to their rich friends parties, which is probably enough for them anyway.

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Most are not in the Euro, and not pegged to it either? And then there's a country like Latvia, which saw an exodus of young people, possibly crippling the country for generations if they don't go back.

All the Baltics, Slovenia and Slovakia have the Euro.

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

A Buttery Pastry posted:

France wins by default, having the only nukes in the EU, as well as a functional military.
We are also surrounded on all sides and the winds in Europe make nuking our neighbor kinda counter productive. Unless you believe 80s nuclear industry nonsense like "the Chernobyl cloud stopped at the French frontier". Seriously can't we have a diplomatic diner instead. Foie gras and champagne for everyone. We won't even bitch about paying for it.

vvvvv because you sounds like a german football blogger talking about FRA vs GER the other day (i havenever seen so much arrogance and certainty in a crushing victory since the French generals in 1871; for exactly the same result) and we know your country current military capacities(and the weak ways you try to sell your hardware, like that sub recently to australia)? Or wouldn't you mind spending what you WASTE on the southern countries in military hardware?

Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 17:31 on Jul 8, 2016

GaussianCopula
Jun 5, 2011
Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

A Buttery Pastry posted:

France wins by default, having the only nukes in the EU, as well as a functional military.

Why would you believe that France, without the US and UK, who are both no (longer) members of the EU, would stand a chance against Germany?

Ligur
Sep 6, 2000

by Lowtax

A Buttery Pastry posted:

France wins by default, having the only nukes in the EU, as well as a functional military.

Now remember, Germans are pretty good at making warfare industrial scale slaughter in a jiffy going from 0 to 10 within half a decade, so be scared!

Libluini
May 18, 2012

I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...
Grimey Drawer

GaussianCopula posted:

Why would you believe that France, without the US and UK, who are both no (longer) members of the EU, would stand a chance against Germany?

They win because Germany is on their side

doverhog
May 31, 2013

Defender of democracy and human rights 🇺🇦
Before we start welfare transfers between countries taxation needs to be harmonized. Get rid of all tax havens within the EU and deny access to the market to anyone who doesn't follow suit, such as Britain.

orange sky
May 7, 2007

doverhog posted:

Before we start welfare transfers between countries taxation needs to be harmonized. Get rid of all tax havens within the EU and deny access to the market to anyone who doesn't follow suit, such as Britain.

And this is it. This is my point, this needs to happen as soon as possible.

His Divine Shadow
Aug 7, 2000

I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.
I would hold the dissolution of the EU is more likely to happen

orange sky
May 7, 2007

gently caress the entire earth by the way:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9d29a55c-44f1-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d.html

gently caress him. gently caress you. gently caress everybody. This SHOULD. NOT. HAPPEN. I know it's common practice in the US, and it's kind of the field in which important people play, but can't people see that their best interests aren't protected when the people in charge can just go to a bank 1 year after effectively being in charge? HOW IS THIS NOT OBVIOUS?

I'm so furious right now.

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

orange sky posted:

gently caress him. gently caress you. gently caress everybody. This SHOULD. NOT. HAPPEN. I know it's common practice in the US, and it's kind of the field in which important people play, but can't people see that their best interests aren't protected when the people in charge can just go to a bank 1 year after effectively being in charge? HOW IS THIS NOT OBVIOUS?

I'm so furious right now.
Lol are you surprised?

Nice piece of fish
Jan 29, 2008

Ultra Carp

Libluini posted:

This is a great idea! It needs some modifications though, because there are problems.

1. The European Parliament needs a lot more power to prevent member states from just abusing/stealing whatever they can. And by member states I mean rich elites in those countries.

2. You're seriously underestimating how much money is needed to support welfare and economy in poorer states, since even the richer nations of the EU sometimes struggle with their own welfare problems. This Federal Wealth Transfer System needs a European tax, levied by the European Union onto all member states, to fund it. (Of course the more a nation needs support, the less they have to pay this "Unification Tax".)

3. The Unification Tax has to be large enough to also support a Supranational, real European military force, because you will need a lot of soldiers to put down the uprisings of hundreds of retarded nationalist organizations across Europe if 1. and 2. are implemented.

If all those preconditions are met, your system will work great! In fact, I'm tempted to create my own party to lobby for this.

It is a very interesting idea, though hard to implement. I foresee it causing about as many problems as it fixes, though it certainly is taking the EU in a new and possible positive direction in terms of unification.

feller
Jul 5, 2006


Toplowtech posted:

Lol are you surprised?

You don't have to be surprised to feel emotion hope this helps

His Divine Shadow
Aug 7, 2000

I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.

orange sky posted:

gently caress the entire earth by the way:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9d29a55c-44f1-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d.html

gently caress him. gently caress you. gently caress everybody. This SHOULD. NOT. HAPPEN. I know it's common practice in the US, and it's kind of the field in which important people play, but can't people see that their best interests aren't protected when the people in charge can just go to a bank 1 year after effectively being in charge? HOW IS THIS NOT OBVIOUS?

I'm so furious right now.

Why can't governments just kill these people as a security risk? A drone strike and it's done. The US kills people and children for way less all the time.

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

cool and good posted:

You don't have to be surprised to feel emotion hope this helps
No seriously, it's Barroso, did you expect a champion of austerity to end up in an international Unesco commission on education or the College of Europe's administration like Jacques Delors did? Nope straight to the bank.

Lagotto
Nov 22, 2010

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Here's a hypothetical: How would you feel about a federal wealth transfer system run entirely by the EU, on top of the national institutions, which would help prevent the worst miseries in countries like Greece without simply "funneling money into a corrupt system"?

The EU itself is a collection of corrupt systems. Hope this helps.

doverhog
May 31, 2013

Defender of democracy and human rights 🇺🇦
Everyone and everything is corrupted, but some things more so, such as Greece or Italy.

Lagotto
Nov 22, 2010

orange sky posted:

gently caress the entire earth by the way:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9d29a55c-44f1-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d.html

gently caress him. gently caress you. gently caress everybody. This SHOULD. NOT. HAPPEN. I know it's common practice in the US, and it's kind of the field in which important people play, but can't people see that their best interests aren't protected when the people in charge can just go to a bank 1 year after effectively being in charge? HOW IS THIS NOT OBVIOUS?

I'm so furious right now.

quote:

Barroso's political activity began in his late teens, during the Estado Novo regime in Portugal, before the Carnation Revolution of 25 April 1974. In his university days, he was one of the leaders of the underground Maoist MRPP (Reorganising Movement of the Proletariat Party, later PCTP/MRPP, Communist Party of the Portuguese Workers/Revolutionary Movement of the Portuguese Proletariat). In an interview with the newspaper Expresso, he said that he had joined MRPP to fight the only other student body movement, also underground, which was controlled by the Portuguese Communist Party. Despite this justification there is a very famous political 1976 interview recorded by the Portuguese state-run television channel, RTP, in which Barroso, as a politically minded student during the post-Carnation Revolution turmoil known as PREC, criticises the bourgeois education system which "throws students against workers and workers against students."[5] In December 1980, Barroso joined the right-of-centre PPD (Democratic Popular Party, later PPD/PSD-Social Democratic Party), where he remains to the present day.

So many disillusioned communists in the world. At this rate half of D&D will be running sweatshops in Bangladesh 15 years from know.

Lagotto
Nov 22, 2010

doverhog posted:

Everyone and everything is corrupted, but some things more so, such as Greece or Italy.

Unfortunately the EU is worse then the sum of it's parts.

Ligur
Sep 6, 2000

by Lowtax

YF-23 posted:

I was using northerner vs southerner because that has been the dominant narrative for almost a decade now. If you were talking generally; good!

Whatever, can you just leave those "gaaaah racist omg" charges for the lat ScandiPol thread and request it be opened, or something, if that is important to you. Or perhaps send me private messages where you curse at me?

You yelling "racist!!1'" at the drop of a hat to random posters will not improve any thread, especially not this, no matter how many kicks you get out of that poo poo. It's just weird.

quote:

I do not believe you saying that Finnish media was fair in any way, though. No media is.

Yes that is true but you didn't really understand what I said, the media usually isn't absolutely fair to anyone, the media usually caters to various listeners and readers and tend to be unfair or favourable for everyone in that sense.

Thing is, there are different medias. With different backers and objectives.

But that the Finnish media somehow systematically painted Southern Europeans as lazy cheats is not true (whatever that El Perkele poster says). Some medias did that, some other medias reported them as unfortunate victims of circumstance (which is my stance, albeit it didn't stop you from going haywire and accuse me of racism etc.) and some medias were inbetween trying to analyze the situation without bias as best they could. But all in all, and I do read newspapers, the conclusion never was and especially isn't now that the sleazy southerner Greek is to blame for his or her plight.

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

Lagotto posted:

The EU itself is a collection of corrupt systems. Hope this helps.
It's like we need some kind of europe-wide bureau of investigation or something like that to fight corruption and organized crime. I wonder why most European politicians would be against the idea of corrupt people being judged outside their country? :smug:

Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 18:44 on Jul 8, 2016

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

His Divine Shadow posted:

Why can't governments just kill these people as a security risk? A drone strike and it's done. The US kills people and children for way less all the time.

Well we are getting very near to the point that merely the emergence of the right kind of ideology that offers anything close to an alternative, might be enough to spark off something potentially nasty.

Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

GaussianCopula posted:

More general, I don't understand why countries like Spain, Italy and Greece need fiscal transfers to deal with the Euro, while the East European nations, who basically had to start from scratch in 1990 with regards to their economy look like they don't need it, even though they have lower GDP/capita etc.

Spain is a good case study because it had a low (very low) debt-to-gdp ratio before the crisis. What happened was a credit crisis in France and Germany, that really had nothing to do with Spain, triggered a massive capital outflow and crunched the Spanish economy. Without a currency to devalue against the more productive French and German economy, and with Germany not allowing inflation in the core States, the only path the Spanish economy has back to growth is internal devaluation. Essentially, deflation. And we all know how good deflation is for an economy.

Without fiscal transfers or a currency Spain is doomed to a long period of internal contraction as real wages and prices fall until the economy is competitive with the core again.

More generally the Eastern European economies are exporting parts and labor to Germany. But it's not as if their economies are doing great either.

Did I forget anything? It's not as though this is all my own original research.

Arglebargle III fucked around with this message at 19:34 on Jul 8, 2016

Lagotto
Nov 22, 2010

Arglebargle III posted:

Spain is a good case study because it had a low (very low) debt-to-gdp ratio before the crisis. What happened was a credit crisis in France and Germany, that really had nothing to do with Spain, triggered a massive capital outflow and crunched the Spanish economy. Without a currency to devalue against the more productive French and German economy, and with Germany not allowing inflation in the core States, the only path the Spanish economy has back to growth is internal devaluation. Essentially, deflation. And we all know how good deflation is for an economy.

Without fiscal transfers or a currency Spain is doomed to a long period of internal contraction as real wages and prices fall until the economy is competitive with the core again.

More generally the Eastern European economies are exporting parts and labor to Germany. But it's not as if their economies are doing great either.

Did I forget anything? It's not as though this is all my own original research.

The credit crisis had plenty to do with Spain, their main problem is/was that 15% of GDP consisted of a real estate bubble (supported by cheap credit lines) that popped, murdering GDP, tax revenue and their over leveredged banking sector.

I have no idea where your narrative is based upon, it is really the other way around, southern Europe's bubbles popping triggered a European wide recession. The underlying economic fundamentals up north are better though, so they were less effected.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

A Buttery Pastry posted:

There are 3 times as many unemployed people in Greece, and the country is significantly more unequal. A simple GDP per capita comparison might not be appropriate. In any case, Greece is a tiny part of the EU. There's no reason it has to be the center of this discussion, seeing as my suggestion would in theory be for all European citizens.

I just checked and Slovenia's GDP per capita in PPP terms is 31k and Greece is 26k, he is completely wrong by a wide margin.

If anything Greece has lost already more than a decade at this point and its GDP is down to where it was during the early 2000s and in all likelihood is going to continue to regress. It may be permanently crippled.

NihilismNow
Aug 31, 2003

GaussianCopula posted:

Why would you believe that France, without the US and UK, who are both no (longer) members of the EU, would stand a chance against Germany?

They are not the ones issueing brooms to their troops would be one reason. Another would be that the German people have been subject to 70+ years of brainwashing and have no will to fight.

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9-Volt Assault
Jan 27, 2007

Beter twee tetten in de hand dan tien op de vlucht.
GDP is the dumbest number, no matter if its per capita or not. Here in the Netherlands politicians are starting to look at alternative ways to define if the country is getting richer, because they are finally realizing that GDP is a completely worthless number. We've been hearing about GDP growth over here for the past few years but if people dont notice it in their paychecks, who the gently caress cares about it.

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