|
OwlFancier posted:I'm shocked. So are the union members who voted for him last time, apparently.
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:08
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 8, 2024 11:04 |
|
|
I suppose if he loses it serves as yet a further demonstration of how a free vote without free information is rather farcical.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:11
|
|
|
ukle posted:The Labour party now needs to stand a proper candidate against Corbyn, as it looks like his time is over if the Unions are now solidly against him - assuming this isn't just a dodgy poll. I'd be interested to see what the other unions think.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:12
|
|
|
Megaspel posted:I'd be interested to see what the other unions think. It doesn't really matter, they're the major unions apart from a few which aren't even affiliated to Labour. I wish that had some cross tabs about party membership and voting intentions behind it though, as it is bad but a little hard to analyse apart from 'people don't like leaders (who are) getting a real pasting from their own party and media'.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:16
|
|
|
Baron Corbyn posted:Something like 60% of the public want a general election before article 50 is activated and it should be a walkover for the Tories if they call it before Labour settle their civil war. Honestly I don't know why she wouldn't want to head off the bullshit cries of "unelected" Prime Minister and increase her paper thin majority to boot. her two massive priorities should be to turn around the economic free fall we're in and set out the EU exit plan neither of these are possible in the uncertainty of an election campaign.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:24
|
|
|
kustomkarkommando posted:Is this the same poll Len McCluskey wrote a pissy letter to the Guardian about or is it a new one? Unless Unite suddenly handed over information on their membership to YouGov then the same complaint applies. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/03/poll-does-not-represent-members-of-unite Len McCluskey posted:Your paper has made much of a YouGov/Election Data poll claiming to be of Unite members and purporting to put Unite members at odds with their union’s support for Jeremy Corbyn (Weekend respite as Watson seeks talks on Corbyn exit, 2 July). Your readers need to know two things about that poll. One, Unite did not collaborate in this poll and there appears to be no effort by YouGov to explain how it confirmed those polled as definitely being members of this union. Two, a sample of 775 out of a union with a membership of over 1.4 million members cannot be regarded as a serious indicator of the feelings of Unite members, especially when half of those polled are not even Labour voters. Without access to Unite’s membership database, there is no way the poll could be properly weighted to represent the membership either. This poll lacks any integrity and is a malicious attempt to undermine Unite’s democracy.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:26
|
|
|
Just came back from a branch meeting where a motion of confidence in Jeremy was debated. It was civil, but a really ugly atmosphere, especially for a branch meeting.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:27
|
|
|
quote:Two, a sample of 775 out of a union with a membership of over 1.4 million members cannot be regarded as a serious indicator of the feelings of Unite members A poll of 775 people out of 1.4 million has a margin of error of 3.52%. So yes, Len, it can.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:29
|
|
|
I've been looking at DWP stats too much so I completely trust these figures that omit data and/or don't add up to 100%.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:29
|
|
|
Igiari posted:Just came back from a branch meeting where a motion of confidence in Jeremy was debated. It was civil, but a really ugly atmosphere, especially for a branch meeting. don't keep us hanging. which way did the motion go?
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:30
|
|
|
Implied Consent posted:I've been looking at DWP stats too much so I completely trust these figures that omit data and/or don't add up to 100%. Yeah YouGov are definitely lying to you and these charts aren't merely catchy headline figures that omit Don't Knows. All the info you need is here but - trigger warning - it doesn't look any better for old Jherembe.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:32
|
|
|
Pissflaps posted:A poll of 775 people out of 1.4 million has a margin of error of 3.52%. So yes, Len, it can. Show your working.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:34
|
|
|
i don't want to vote for corbyn in the leadership election but if the options are him or someone even more unelectable or someone who has talked about privatising the NHS there isn't another option
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:35
|
|
|
It looks bad, but I still don't see Angela Eagle doing any better. Maybe if Labour hadn't spent 20 years gutting the left this wouldn't have happened?
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:36
|
|
|
The anti corbyn thing feels a lot like people are opposed to him ideologically but dont want to argue ideology so they keep making poo poo up and creating self fulfilling propechies in the hopes they can win their ideological war solely through ad hominems. Like there are some good reasons to oppose him or support someone else, but it doesnt feel like those reasons are actually the ones driving the debate?
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:36
|
|
|
dispatch_async posted:Show your working. http://www.comres.co.uk/our-work/margin-of-error-calculator/ GlyphGryph posted:The anti corbyn thing feels a lot like people are opposed to him ideologically but dont want to argue ideology so they keep making poo poo up and creating self fulfilling propechies in the hopes they can win their ideological war solely through ad hominems. Agreed. These polls are made up. And also ad hominems.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:36
|
|
|
Sycophantry posted:I live in Burnley and teach just outside of Accrington. I don't really have anything to say other than I'm from Burnley  Also any industry that was remaining in the Pennines is going to get absolutely poo poo canned by brexit lol Pissflaps posted:Yeah YouGov are definitely lying to you and these charts aren't merely catchy headline figures that omit Don't Knows. As others have pointed out these numbers are mostly pointless without a candidate to poll against. I think JC is doing badly and should probably step down until I look at Angela Eagle or any of the other potential challengers and resign myself to the fact that jez is probably the best we have for now.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:39
|
|
|
The polls are a good demonstrator of the ability of media to influence a population. The actual material complaints I am less convinced of the validity of, again, as they started before he even took over.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:39
|
|
|
Pissflaps posted:A poll of 775 people out of 1.4 million has a margin of error of 3.52%. So yes, Len, it can.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:39
|
|
|
Paul.Power posted:How about point one? Couldn't tell you or Len. I haven't seen that poll or its methodology. OwlFancier posted:The polls are a good demonstrator of the ability of media to influence a population. Or Corbyn's inability to do the same.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:40
|
|
|
looking for Corbyn's statement about May's accession, but can't find amongst all the other stuff in the news today. anyone got a link?
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:41
|
|
|
Pissflaps posted:Yeah YouGov are definitely lying to you and these charts aren't merely catchy headline figures that omit Don't Knows. I couldn't find the raw data. Where is it?
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:42
|
|
|
dispatch_async posted:Show your working. suppose each person has a probability p of supporting corbyn. then the number of 'i support corbyn' answers out of n phonecalls will follow a binomial distribution. you can approximate the binomial with a normal with the same mean and variance: mu = p*n var = p*(1-p)*n to keep things simple, let's pick p = 0.5, since that'll maximize the var. a two-sigma (95%) confidence interval on the number of 'i support corbyn' answers would be 0.5*n +/- 2*sqrt(0.25*n) so a two-sigma confidence interval on the fraction of 'i support corbyn' answers would be 0.5 +/- 1/sqrt(n) which for 775 phonecalls means it's 0.5 +/- 0.036
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:42
|
|
|
Cerv posted:looking for corbyn's statement about May's accession, but can't find amongst all the other stuff in the news today. anyone got a link? He's been too busy at some Cuban thing to comment on the UK's new Prime Minister.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:42
|
|
|
Implied Consent posted:I couldn't find the raw data. Where is it? I don't know it's not my blog or my polling company. Try the YouGov website?
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:43
|
|
|
Pissflaps posted:Or Corbyn's inability to do the same. Much like leading in general, no amount of desire or skill can realistically compel an unwilling subject to do as you desire.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:43
|
|
|
GlyphGryph posted:The anti corbyn thing feels a lot like people are opposed to him ideologically but dont want to argue ideology so they keep making poo poo up and creating self fulfilling propechies in the hopes they can win their ideological war solely through ad hominems. Corbyn is doing poorly and some of his policies will never, ever connect with the wider public, but pretending someone as easily flapped as Angela Eagle can win by force of personality alone is madness, and the super-secret plan she's not telling us about - which is almost certainly "run one micron to the left of the Tories on all issues" - will end up not only losing an election, but putting the Overton window completely under Tory control for the next five years.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:43
|
|
|
Pissflaps posted:So are the union members who voted for him last time, apparently. Do you think he's bollocks because of reasons other than the establishment made his life hell the minute he got into his position? Because your arguments seem very circular or rather they make you very vulnerable to further manipulation in the future. The most effective leader in the world can be reduced to nothing if his enemies and his supposed friends are all committed to pulling the rug out from under him/her. We're talking about a cabinet who leaked questions to the tories. Which means it's possible you'll never get the leader you want if the slightest fight back from the opposition makes you balk and clamor for someone more "electable". Where "electable" in this case means the establishment is not harassing them because they are either friends with the right people/corporate entities or not seen as a threat. Corbyn hasn't been the victim of a massive media smear campaign because he was "bad". If he was bad they'd have ignored him. And if you truly think he needs to go because getting any leader, whatever their policies, in power is the most important thing then you're a coward and short sighted.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:43
|
|
|
Pissflaps posted:Agreed. These polls are made up. And also ad hominems. Glad you can admit it, but I should clarify in the interests of technical accuracy that the polls can not be ad hominems in and of themselves, people like you are merely using them as such.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:44
|
|
|
Labour is hosed regardless and honestly it's going to be amsuimg to see a new labour leader get loving slammed hard enough by everyone for being Ed-bot 2.0 and would mean that the labour party loses support again. Honestly you fucks down south didn't learn anything from Scottish Labour did you. You're going to kick the only person that seems to be anti-establishment enough for what people are asking for but instead you're going to have the Jim Murphy effect of putting someone that people would loath and wondering why it didn't work when people are going to go elsewhere again.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:44
|
|
|
GlyphGryph posted:The anti corbyn thing feels a lot like people are opposed to him ideologically but dont want to argue ideology so they keep making poo poo up and creating self fulfilling propechies in the hopes they can win their ideological war solely through ad hominems. This is absolutely the case. The PLP know that the membership is getting more and more disillusioned with their politics, and by and large the new members are supportive of a socialist platform, so they CANNOT make it about policy because they know they will have to change or get creamed. And they've made it self-evident that they can't or don't want to change. Their whole platform is 'Corbyn got stabbed in the back by us so he's a terrible leader'.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:46
|
|
|
Extreme0 posted:Labour is hosed regardless and honestly it's going to be amsuimg to see a new labour leader get loving slammed hard enough by everyone for being Ed-bot 2.0 and would mean that the labour party loses support again. We're doing our level best not to, but the PLP are not making it easy. Fuckwits.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:47
|
|
|
if people can't name anyone to take over for corbyn can they shut the gently caress up about him leaving if they don't even know who should replace him
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:48
|
|
|
Jose posted:if people can't name anyone to take over for corbyn can they shut the gently caress up about him leaving if they don't even know who should replace him Anyone but Diane Abbott should replace him.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:49
|
|
|
Have a super long Facebook post thats going viral amongst my labour friends:quote:Dear anti-Corbyn Labour supporters, So basically a distilled version of the past few weeks of this thread
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:49
|
|
|
Pissflaps posted:Anyone but Diane Abbott should replace him. what are your thoughts about clive lewis other than him being too new to be labour leader?
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:50
|
|
|
Pissflaps posted:Anyone but Diane Abbott should replace him. I should know better than to engage with Pissbaby, but do you honestly hand-on-heart think Angela Eagle would be a better Labour leader than Corbyn? I mean yeah, okay, I can see some people you could make a credible case for (Not that you in particular ever do so) but Eagle makes Ed Miliband look like he has the iron of Bismarck in his spine.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:56
|
|
|
Jose posted:what are your thoughts about clive lewis other than him being too new to be labour leader?
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:57
|
|
|
Clive Lewis came across well but I would need him to demonstrate a commitment to good policies over some time before I would consider him as a viable leadership candidate.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:59
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 8, 2024 11:04 |
|
|
Pissflaps posted:Anyone but Diane Abbott should replace him. You'd support McDonnell then? Good to know.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2016 22:59
|
|