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StashAugustine posted:Out of the loop for past few hours, does it currently look like Erdogan is succeeding? Yeah looks like he is, although pro-coup forces are still putting up resistance.
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Jul 16, 2016 03:55
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StashAugustine posted:Out of the loop for past few hours, does it currently look like Erdogan is succeeding? it's not so much erdogan succeeding as the coup failed with the first hour or two
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Jul 16, 2016 03:55
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ugh, i have a feeling this will somehow be even worse when i wake up in the morning. but i'm just too tired to watch anymore.
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Jul 16, 2016 03:56
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cochise posted:I love how Bob Baer is on CNN talking about the coups he particpated in when he was in the CIA and compared them to this coup in Turkey. He said it was too weak to ever accomplish anything like the ones "we did" to be fair he has a point, man back in the days at least when the CIA coup something they don't have a bunch of soldiers standing around and go off meekly when some cop arrest them
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Jul 16, 2016 03:56
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Typo posted:to be fair he has a point, man back in the days at least when the CIA coup something they don't have a bunch of soldiers standing around and go off meekly when some cop arrest them the man knows his coups
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Jul 16, 2016 03:59
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its kind of shameful this failed. we hate erdogan, russia hates him, europe hates him, we should have made this work.
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Jul 16, 2016 04:00
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I think it's pretty safe to say Erdogan is in a good position right now and it looks like the coupsters are just putting up a desperate fight.
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Jul 16, 2016 04:00
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gunfire on that periscope shared earlier
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Jul 16, 2016 04:00
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failed coup! very low energy. sad!
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Jul 16, 2016 04:02
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With daylight and government control starting to be reasserted in Istanbul it is very likely we'll start seeing pro government military formations moving in to force the surrender of any of the hold out coup units.
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Jul 16, 2016 04:03
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Coup hardly seems failed yet in any way at all, historically giving half manic speeches about overseas conspirators does not bode well for a president's future.
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Jul 16, 2016 04:03
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icantfindaname posted:ISIS has no support among Islamists of either Kurdish or Turkish ethnicity, so probably not? Really there are not plenty of youth i Turkey that could be enticed to such a group in a nation with a autocratic dictator and a struggling economy?
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Jul 16, 2016 04:04
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What's the situation in Ankara? I'm not hearing any news coming from there My Dad thinks the Coup Military has taken control of the city
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Jul 16, 2016 04:04
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AMN saying military still in control at airport and coup elements refusing to surrender
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Jul 16, 2016 04:04
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Crowsbeak posted:Really there are not plenty of youth i Turkey that could be enticed to such a group in a nation with a autocratic dictator and a struggling economy? Nah, they like their autocratic dictator and the government already has plenty of folks to throw in front of them as scapegoats for their problems. It's one of the reasons this coup is a bit poo poo, *most* people aren't unhappy with their government.
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Jul 16, 2016 04:04
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SgtSteel91 posted:What's the situation in Ankara? I'm not hearing any news coming from there That, or at least heavy fighting, seems likely since Erdogan didn't seem to have returned there thus far.
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Jul 16, 2016 04:05
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Typo posted:to be fair he has a point, man back in the days at least when the CIA coup something they don't have a bunch of soldiers standing around and go off meekly when some cop arrest them "unfortunately" the CIA are kind of weak sauce now and more interested in using social anthropology techniques to cultivate humint than couping errant regimes.
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Jul 16, 2016 04:06
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Zohar posted:"unfortunately" the CIA are kind of weak sauce now and more interested in using social anthropology techniques to cultivate humint than couping errant regimes. Lol at the idea of the CIA doing HUMINT these days. It's all about the SIGINT.
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Jul 16, 2016 04:07
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The-Mole posted:Coup hardly seems failed yet in any way at all, historically giving half manic speeches about overseas conspirators does not bode well for a president's future. When the President gives half manic speeches about overseas conspirators on the reg, it sort of messes with the scale Zohar posted:"unfortunately" the CIA are kind of weak sauce now and more interested in using social anthropology techniques to cultivate humint than couping errant regimes. Don't forget about maintaining their robot air force
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Jul 16, 2016 04:08
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Nitrousoxide posted:Lol at the idea of the CIA doing HUMINT these days. It's all about the SIGINT. I'm under the impression that that's handled by the NSA and other alphabet agencies. Then again what I've heard about the CIA is from people who went out of that field about 10 years ago so maybe it's changed now.
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Jul 16, 2016 04:08
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hakimashou posted:its kind of shameful this failed. we hate erdogan, russia hates him, europe hates him, we should have made this work. western-engineered coups in the middle east to install secular governments have such a record of success
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Jul 16, 2016 04:10
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Typo posted:failed coup! very low energy. sad!
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Jul 16, 2016 04:10
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I still can't believe those dumbasses decided to launch the coup while Erdogan was on vacation and they couldn't get to him quickly.
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Jul 16, 2016 04:11
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The-Mole posted:Coup hardly seems failed yet in any way at all, historically giving half manic speeches about overseas conspirators does not bode well for a president's future. I personally think it doesn't matter if a president is manic or a lizardman if there are masses in the streets willing to risk their lives and lynch soldiers for him.
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Jul 16, 2016 04:11
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SirJohnnyMcDonald posted:I personally think it doesn't matter if a president is manic or a lizardman if there are masses in the streets willing to risk their lives and lynch soldiers for him. But those people were unarmed civilians and any self-defense against them is a war crime 
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Jul 16, 2016 04:12
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icantfindaname posted:western-engineered coups in the middle east to install secular governments have such a record of success When zero of these have ever occurred it's hard to measure their success rate, yes.
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Jul 16, 2016 04:14
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Vernii posted:But those people were unarmed civilians and any self-defense against them is a war crime You Are A Bad Person
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Jul 16, 2016 04:14
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The-Mole posted:Coup hardly seems failed yet in any way at all A coup is not anything like a civil war or uprising or something like that. Comparing the two is like comparing cutting a man's head off to starving him to death. A coup succeeds or fails based almost entirely on how much it can get done in a very, very short amount of time. You have to snatch the head of the government, and immediately assert control over the remaining elements in a manner they can't resist, otherwise you just end up with Libya. The fact that A) Erdogan is still free and kicking, B) the state media apparatus is trumpeting 'attempted coup' and C) dozens of different government elements are saying they won't stand for the coup means that it has failed. Yeah, it seems kind of nuts to say this has failed eight hours after it started, especially considering the main topic of the thread is usually a rebellion that's lasted for half a decade, but that's just the way it is. There's still a chance that this could inspire an uprising and rip the country apart into a civil war, but that would be something completely different than the coup attempt, in addition to being the worst possible case scenario. A coup is like the trick where you whip the tablecloth off without disturbing the dishes on top. If you gently caress it you, you'll just pull everything off the table. Yeah, you may still be holding the cloth in the end, but you've still hosed everything up. No matter what their aims or intentions were, at this point I don't think it can really be denied that the coup has made things immeasurably worse for everyone not named Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He's practically Ataturk in all but name now. Surviving the coup, winning by successfully instructing citizens to take to the street and resist, walking among them hours later even while gunfire and explosions are still going off, he's more powerful than he has ever been before. He can attack his enemies, he can attack his friends, he can basically waltz into unopposed dictatorship without even trying.
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Jul 16, 2016 04:14
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The airport is surrounded by tanks, there're tanks blocking bridges in the big cities, and tanks and troops are out and about disrupting stuff. That sounds like active coup to me. It wasn't an instant success, but it often takes a day to a week for someone to make a major mistake that determines the future. RE guy above: yeah you're talking about bloodless coups moreso. A lot of the bloodier ones historically took longer to get things sorted, but they more often seemed to end in a dictator shot full of holes in the back of a truck. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 04:17 on Jul 16, 2016 |
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Jul 16, 2016 04:15
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There is a difference between "disrupting" and "conquering". The coup has failed, they're not taking over the country. That doesn't mean they're just going to give up and meekly suicide, all those dudes are going to struggle tooth and nail to hold on as long as they can and do everything possible to survive. That doesn't mean their plan hasn't failed, though.
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Jul 16, 2016 04:17
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Rime posted:When zero of these have ever occurred it's hard to measure their success rate, yes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Egyptian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat
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Jul 16, 2016 04:17
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Rime posted:When zero of these have ever occurred it's hard to measure their success rate, yes. erm
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Jul 16, 2016 04:18
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The-Mole posted:The airport is surrounded by tanks, there're tanks blocking bridges in the big cities, and tanks and troops are out and about disrupting stuff. That sounds like active coup to me. It wasn't an instant success, but it often takes a day to a week for someone to make a major mistake that determines the future. then why dont the tanks just move in and kill or capture erdogan? the coup is probaly hosed at this point, but they might as well take the sack of poo poo with them.
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Jul 16, 2016 04:19
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Captain Bravo posted:There is a difference between "disrupting" and "conquering". The coup has failed, they're not taking over the country. That doesn't mean they're just going to give up and meekly suicide, all those dudes are going to struggle tooth and nail to hold on as long as they can and do everything possible to survive. That doesn't mean their plan hasn't failed, though. Coup has failed. Best case for the coup planners (but not the people) is a short civil war that they win. Even though it looks like they are only a portion of the military, it seems like they control most of the big guns so that is a non zero possibility.
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Jul 16, 2016 04:20
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Nitrousoxide posted:Coup has failed. Best case for the coup planners (but not the people) is a short civil war that they win. I'm not sure they can fight a war if they can't hold a tv station.
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Jul 16, 2016 04:21
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Looks like civilians tried crossing the bridge on that periscope. Lots of gunfire now
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Jul 16, 2016 04:21
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icantfindaname posted:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat You really think the 2013 coup in Egypt was "Western Engineered"? Really?
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Jul 16, 2016 04:21
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The-Mole posted:The airport is surrounded by tanks, there're tanks blocking bridges in the big cities, and tanks and troops are out and about disrupting stuff. That sounds like active coup to me. It wasn't an instant success, but it often takes a day to a week for someone to make a major mistake that determines the future. That's not an accurate description of situation on the ground. Also situation at the bridge is deteriorating, crowd moved forward for unknown reason, gunfire response. https://www.periscope.tv/Isocializm/1nAKEbvYkQXGL
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Jul 16, 2016 04:21
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So has there ever been a worse planned coup in modern history before because this one seemed really badly planned, I would think you would want to be able to take the President in hand
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Jul 16, 2016 04:21
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lamentable dustman posted:So has there ever been a worse planned coup in moderen before because this one seemed really bad Iunno, I don't want to say there aren't dumber people, because there are always dumber people. Edit: actually I remember a very recent one in the Sub-Saharan Africa thread where the coup-ers went "lol, just kidding, whoops, welcome back".
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Jul 16, 2016 04:22
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