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TildeATH
Oct 21, 2010

by Lowtax
The jet stream crossed the equator (maybe? or maybe it's quackery? sure looks bad)

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ChairMaster
Aug 22, 2009

by R. Guyovich
That looks pretty made up from what I can tell, googling it gets nothing legitimate looking or informative at all.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

surprising absolutely no-one.

Wakko
Jun 9, 2002
Faboo!

Washington Post has an article debunking it unfortunately.

Salt Fish
Sep 11, 2003

Cybernetic Crumb

Wakko posted:

Washington Post has an article debunking it unfortunately.

haha unfortunately

Lagotto
Nov 22, 2010

Wakko posted:

unfortunately.

Yes terribly unfortunate.

Colonel J
Jan 3, 2008
You climate wackos just want to say "told ya so".

Wakko
Jun 9, 2002
Faboo!
yes that was totally the intent, not a polite way of saying you fell for some artic-news-esque horseshit, you fuckin goons

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Hey in good news the hole in the ozone layer is shrinking!

Although carbon emissions and global warming are much more challenging problems to face, at least we know the world is at least theoretically capable of coming together and effecting solutions, even if we may not see ultimate success for another 50+ years.

DoctoRadox
Nov 7, 2010
it goes inside of your rear end

Banana Man
Oct 2, 2015

mm time 2 gargle piss and shit

DoctoRadox posted:

it goes inside of your rear end

quoted the wrong thing but going with this

Mystery Goomba
Jun 4, 2011

DoctoRadox posted:

it goes inside of your rear end

not unfortunately

Wanderer
Nov 5, 2006

our every move is the new tradition
http://www.anl.gov/articles/modeling-predicts-which-counties-could-store-more-carbon-soil-growing-bioenergy-crops

quote:

In an effort to decrease greenhouse gas emissions from transportation by reducing the use of petroleum fuels, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Renewable Fuel Standard calls for increased production of advanced biofuels. Fortunately, most bioenergy crops can grow on a range of crop and marginal lands across the country, taking advantage of land that may not be viable for traditional crops. Because Earth's soil stores about three times as much carbon as the atmosphere, these deep-rooted plants that return season after season might also help reduce greenhouse gas emissions before they are even harvested for fuel by increasing the amount of carbon stored in the soil.

davebo
Nov 15, 2006

Parallel lines do meet, but they do it incognito
College Slice

ToxicSlurpee posted:

Reduce, reuse, recycle.

It always irritates me how many people don't give a poo poo about the first two-thirds of this and just think if they're recycling a bunch of poo poo instead of throwing it away they're saving the planet. It's much more accurate to say recycling is just the second-worst thing you can do. Well, third if you count setting your garbage on fire.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

davebo posted:

It always irritates me how many people don't give a poo poo about the first two-thirds of this and just think if they're recycling a bunch of poo poo instead of throwing it away they're saving the planet. It's much more accurate to say recycling is just the second-worst thing you can do. Well, third if you count setting your garbage on fire.

Speaking of reduce, there is some good news on that front: http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/07/the-amount-of-energy-needed-to-run-the-worlds-economy-is-decreasing-on-average/



We are reducing the energy required for the same amount of economic activity, something that is critical to creating the space to adapt to climate change while having economic resources available for everything else.

parcs
Nov 20, 2011
Showing the change in energy productivity is misleading. It's better to look at energy intensity (of which energy productivity is the inverse).

So energy intensity decreased by 32% over 25 years. That's about a 1% decrease per year. At the rate energy intensity will be half of 1990 levels by 2060, and half of today's levels by 2085. Looks a bit like "too little too late" to me. And after a certain point, improving energy efficiency gets really difficult if not impossible so a long term 1% decrease per year may be too optimistic.

parcs fucked around with this message at 04:17 on Jul 16, 2016

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

parcs posted:

Showing the change in energy productivity is misleading. It's better to look at energy intensity (of which energy productivity is the inverse).

So energy intensity decreased by 32% over 25 years. That's about a 1% decrease per year. At the rate energy intensity will be half of 1990 levels by 2060, and half of today's levels by 2085. Looks a bit like "too little too late" to me. And after a certain point, improving energy efficiency gets really difficult if not impossible so a long term 1% decrease per year may be too optimistic.

I think you're underestimating how inefficient things are. The among of energy we could save by reducing sharp angles in piping alone is massive, for example. HVAC has huge efficiency gain potential using existing/historic technologies. And that's not even getting into the general resource decoupling that service/digital economies create.

But also even a 10-25% shaving of demand is huge in terms of turning things around. Costs aren't linear, so marginal changes in efficiency can have non-marginal changes in total cost.

Better efficiency is a big part of how we're going to be able to offer meaningful improvements to the world's population while engaging in climate mitigation and adaptation.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

parcs posted:

Showing the change in energy productivity is misleading. It's better to look at energy intensity (of which energy productivity is the inverse).

So energy intensity decreased by 32% over 25 years. That's about a 1% decrease per year. At the rate energy intensity will be half of 1990 levels by 2060, and half of today's levels by 2085. Looks a bit like "too little too late" to me. And after a certain point, improving energy efficiency gets really difficult if not impossible so a long term 1% decrease per year may be too optimistic.

What is the target for energy intensity?

tsa
Feb 3, 2014
The problem with efficiency is that there is a tendency that as efficiency goes up, use goes up and the overall picture remains the same. A company, for example, may be interested in making a process more efficient so the output becomes cheaper and thus more competitive in the market. But as the products price goes down more people may (probably will) want it so they make more of it, leaving the overall carbon output of the process to be the same because the extra use compensates the gains in efficiency. They also see this a lot with cars- when people buy more efficient cars they tend to drive it more than they would with a less efficient one. Maybe they take an extra roadtrip, drive for fun a bit more, or are less concerned with optimizing their errands and such. Regardless, people tend to target a set fuel cost per month rather than a carbon target, so again you will see that efficiency doesn't tell the whole story.

On the larger scale this same sort of thing happens with countries, in that as they get richer the people tend to waste more energy, be it simply driving when public transportation or biking is an acceptable alternative. I've always thought that the real challenges we face is the overwhelming focus on being green, or making something slightly more efficient, when such gains are an eyedrop in an ocean compared to the developing world modernizing. Kinda like-- Great, we have 100 mpg cars, oh wait now 3 billion more people want to be driving, poo poo.

Trabisnikof posted:


Better efficiency is a big part of how we're going to be able to offer meaningful improvements to the world's population while engaging in climate mitigation and adaptation.

The numbers don't work out, not even close. We could double the efficiency of the US and it wouldn't even be close to the effect of bringing 5 billion more people to that level of energy usage. And of course doubling isn't even close to what is realistically possible in the time frame climate scientists are talking about.

tsa fucked around with this message at 17:17 on Jul 17, 2016

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/796858/duterte-says-no-to-climate-pact-compliance

quote:

PRESIDENT Duterte on Monday said his administration will not honor the historic Paris agreement on climate change which the Philippines adopted along with about 200 countries in December 2015.

The Chief Executive described as “stupid” the international treaty, signed by senior officials of the countries who attended the 21st Conference of Parties in France.

Speaking at the sendoff program for Filipino athletes bound for the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the President said a foreign ambassador reminded him of the Philippines’ commitment to limit its carbon emissions.

He said he was angry with that ambassador and “wanted to kick him” when the diplomat asked him if the Philippines could maintain its carbon emissions.

“I said, ‘No. I cannot tell… You don’t do it that way, Mr. Ambassador. (Your country) had reached the apex (of industrialization) and along the way put a lot of contaminants and emission and went ahead in destroying the climate,’” the President said.

“We have not reached the age of industrialization. We’re now going into it. But you are trying stymie (our growth) with an agreement that says you can only go up to here,” he continued.

“That’s stupid. I will not honor that,” he added.


When the ambassador told him that the Philippines was a signatory to the agreement, Mr. Duterte said he replied: “That was not my signature. It’s not mine.”

parcs
Nov 20, 2011
Yeah, any aggregate gain in efficiency will be more than offset by a subsequent increase in consumption, especially by developing countries.

Even a steep carbon tax on the entire developed world won't really work due to carbon leakage. There's just no way in hell that developing countries will voluntarily stop growing and consuming more energy. The economy is like a big engine that inevitably finds ways to consume as much energy as possible. The only way to stop ever increasing resource consumption, in this economic framework of ours, is to run out of resources. In my pessimistic opinion of course.

khwarezm
Oct 26, 2010

Deal with it.

No offense to the good people of the Philippines, but everything I've heard about this guy makes it sound like he's a preview for Trump in America if he gets elected, is that a fair comparison?

Wasn't there something about him telling people to go out and beat up junkies?

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

khwarezm posted:

No offense to the good people of the Philippines, but everything I've heard about this guy makes it sound like he's a preview for Trump in America if he gets elected, is that a fair comparison?

Wasn't there something about him telling people to go out and beat up junkies?

That's pretty much what he is.

And yes, he was going on about encouraging private citizens to go hunt down drug dealers and junkies and kill them. Without trial. He's insane.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

khwarezm posted:

No offense to the good people of the Philippines, but everything I've heard about this guy makes it sound like he's a preview for Trump in America if he gets elected, is that a fair comparison?

Wasn't there something about him telling people to go out and beat up junkies?

His political background as a long-time mayor of a major city that rose to political prominence only very recently as an anti-establishment figurehead is somewhat closer to the UK's Boris Johnson, but otherwise, he is very much a preview for Trump, except the lack of racial tensions in the Philippines means the "otherized" group here is druggies and drug-lords rather than Mexicans and Muslims.

Car Hater
May 7, 2007

wolf. bike.
Wolf. Bike.
Wolf! Bike!
WolfBike!
WolfBike!
ARROOOOOO!

khwarezm posted:

No offense to the good people of the Philippines, but everything I've heard about this guy makes it sound like he's a preview for Trump in America if he gets elected, is that a fair comparison?

Wasn't there something about him telling people to go out and beat up junkies?

More like Sheriff Arpaio than Trump, IMO. He was telling people to kill junkies and dealers and offering clemency for it.

Mat Cauthon
Jan 2, 2006

The more tragic things get,
the more I feel like laughing.



gradenko_2000 posted:

His political background as a long-time mayor of a major city that rose to political prominence only very recently as an anti-establishment figurehead is somewhat closer to the UK's Boris Johnson, but otherwise, he is very much a preview for Trump, except the lack of racial tensions in the Philippines means the "otherized" group here is druggies and drug-lords rather than Mexicans and Muslims.

Ho boy, if you think the Philippines doesn't have a problem with Muslims and foreigners. The Boris Johnson comparison is apt though.

The news about Duerte disdaining the Paris Accords stings especially when you consider the delegation from the Phillippines openly weeping when talking about the devastation of Typhoon Haiyan (sp?) and their fears of how climate change would further harm the nation on the floor of the UN a few years back. But then again, the Paris Accords aren't worth the paper they're written on, so :shrug:

Mat Cauthon fucked around with this message at 23:56 on Jul 18, 2016

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

tsa posted:

The problem with efficiency is that there is a tendency that as efficiency goes up, use goes up and the overall picture remains the same.

No, not really.

This conclusion comes about when you have a very simple system with minimal factors. That is not an accurate picture of most fields, especially those at a national level.

computer parts fucked around with this message at 01:09 on Jul 19, 2016

BattleMoose
Jun 16, 2010
The developing world is going to develop and aspire to the awesome quality of life that we enjoy in the first world. The only real hope we have is for us in the first world to live a lifestyle that the planet could sustain, assuming the whole population lived the same lifestyles as we do and hope the developing world follows that lead. I mean, I know how naive and completely unrealistic this is. But it beats the hypocrisy of effectively telling the developing world, you can't develop and be happy! Only we can do that.

*Sad*

Uranium Phoenix
Jun 20, 2007

Boom.

BattleMoose posted:

The developing world is going to develop and aspire to the awesome quality of life that we enjoy in the first world. The only real hope we have is for us in the first world to live a lifestyle that the planet could sustain, assuming the whole population lived the same lifestyles as we do and hope the developing world follows that lead. I mean, I know how naive and completely unrealistic this is. But it beats the hypocrisy of effectively telling the developing world, you can't develop and be happy! Only we can do that.

*Sad*

On the other hand, it's much easier to yell at other people that they aren't doing enough than it is to fix your own problems.

BattleMoose
Jun 16, 2010

Uranium Phoenix posted:

On the other hand, it's much easier to yell at other people that they aren't doing enough than it is to fix your own problems.

Oh yeah. And there's also the thing that whatever problems arise, the first world will be able to buy its way out of them, possibly expensive so. The third world on the other hand...

*even more sad*

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


We could just nuke the third world.

Vote Trump.

fake edit - I'm having a lousy day today am not going to be exhibiting normal patience for the rest of this week

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

computer parts posted:

No, not really.

This conclusion comes about when you have a very simple system with minimal factors. That is not an accurate picture of most fields, especially those at a national level.

It works for freeways, right? Like I recall that as freeways are built for better capacity they almost always get completely swallowed up by a rise in the number of cars. I suppose that could be a pent up demand thing.

Anyway thank you for listening to your daily :iiaca:

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

A big flaming stink posted:

It works for freeways, right? Like I recall that as freeways are built for better capacity they almost always get completely swallowed up by a rise in the number of cars. I suppose that could be a pent up demand thing.

Anyway thank you for listening to your daily :iiaca:

Not in upstate New York, no.

The classic car analogy is gas prices btw, although that's a bad one because there's a hidden element: time. Even if gas is 3 cents a gallon people aren't going to commute 100 times as far as if it was $3/gal.

Placid Marmot
Apr 28, 2013
Jevon's Paradox does work for roads in general, though I don't know about upstate New York.
If a city has a major traffic problem, people will be disinclined to use a car and more inclined to use a (motor)bike, or to not travel at all. If a city has empty streets, people have no time- or effort-saving incentive to use a bike or public transport. Comparing $0.03 vs $3.00 is more than a bit disingenuous - two orders of magnitude, really? It has been observed that fuel prices influence miles traveled, and discussing $0.03 or $300 per gallon fuel is not a solid basis to refute that.
Actually, maybe $300/gallon is a good example, as distance traveled will be reduced by 100x or more at that price.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Placid Marmot posted:

Jevon's Paradox does work for roads in general, though I don't know about upstate New York.
If a city has a major traffic problem, people will be disinclined to use a car and more inclined to use a (motor)bike, or to not travel at all. If a city has empty streets, people have no time- or effort-saving incentive to use a bike or public transport. Comparing $0.03 vs $3.00 is more than a bit disingenuous - two orders of magnitude, really? It has been observed that fuel prices influence miles traveled, and discussing $0.03 or $300 per gallon fuel is not a solid basis to refute that.
Actually, maybe $300/gallon is a good example, as distance traveled will be reduced by 100x or more at that price.

Cities with large roads typically don't have empty streets or public transportation, so it's a foolish comparison.

You've already admitted that Jevon's Paradox doesn't apply to all situations though, so the only reason to think it would apply in the one being discussed is generic cynicism.

Placid Marmot
Apr 28, 2013

computer parts posted:

Cities with large roads typically don't have empty streets or public transportation, so it's a foolish comparison.

You seem to be confused about causality. Aside from entirely new modern cities, cities are not built with "large roads", but adapt to increasing road use by adding lanes and roads to relieve pressure on existing roads. As suggested, this may increase usage rather than maintaining usage and reducing congestion.

quote:

You've already admitted that Jevon's Paradox doesn't apply to all situations though, so the only reason to think it would apply in the one being discussed is generic cynicism.

The only situation where I have "admitted that Jevon's Paradox doesn't apply to all situations" is your preposterous 100x reduction in fuel price. Taking account of known economic feedbacks in order to determine climate-related policy is wise, not cynical.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Placid Marmot posted:

You seem to be confused about causality. Aside from entirely new modern cities, cities are not built with "large roads", but adapt to increasing road use by adding lanes and roads to relieve pressure on existing roads. As suggested, this may increase usage rather than maintaining usage and reducing congestion.


Most cities in the US do not have public transportation as a meaningful substitute.


quote:

The only situation where I have "admitted that Jevon's Paradox doesn't apply to all situations" is your preposterous 100x reduction in fuel price. Taking account of known economic feedbacks in order to determine climate-related policy is wise, not cynical.

They're not known, you just said so.

Placid Marmot
Apr 28, 2013

computer parts posted:

Most cities in the US do not have public transportation as a meaningful substitute.

Ah, I see - so you meant to write "Cities with large roads typically don't have empty streets, or public transportation."
In either case, public transport was only one example of alternatives to driving that I listed, so bad local provision of public transport does not eliminate the possibility of using alternate transit or avoiding travel.

quote:

They're not known, you just said so.

Jevon's Paradox, among other feedback mechanisms, is known, and I never said it wasn't??? ? Do you still think that your unrealistic example of $0.03/gallon fuel disproves Jevon's Paradox? I don't think this is a productive course of discussion.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July
June was the 14th consecutive hottest [month] on record. :toot:

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Hollismason
Jun 30, 2007
FEEL FREE TO DISREGARD THIS POST

It is guaranteed to be lazy, ignorant, and/or uninformed.
Can someone explain this whole heat bubble because of humidity that's going to happen over the Mid West

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