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Louisgod
Sep 25, 2003

Always Watching
Bread Liar

I was wondering if this would come up. It happens every loving time with the Republicans.

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Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

zoux posted:

Because then they'd be accused of bias.

It's the same reason they're afraid to use the word "lie". Every goddamn reporter in this country is afraid to use that word because then they get the inevitable follow-up "Are you calling so-and-so a liar", and literally every non-fictional news anchor and mainstream journalist is afraid to go "Yes!"

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003


thanks, 11-year-old episode of south park

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

exquisite tea posted:

Obama polled on average 2.5% ahead of Romney up through election night, where he ended up winning by about 4% nationally. On the day of the election, 538 gave Obama about a 90% chance of winning according to their model. Good chances, but if I said that if you had a 10% chance of being struck by lightning when you walked outside today, you'd probably stay indoors.

Clinton's RCP lead over Trump is on average 2.7%, with a lot more uncertainty in the form of undecideds and third party candidates. Her current RCPs lead in PA (3.2%) OH (1.8%) and FL (.6%) are within striking distance of Trump depending on state-level fluctuations and even slight increases in the national vote. In a scenario where it's 50/50 on election night, Clinton's blue lean over Trump in Pennsylvania is only .5% relative to the national polling. That gap is well within the realm of possibility of Trump to overcome due to any number of statistical variations in voter turnout and national trends. It's more unlikely than Clinton winning, but to say it's not possible is perhaps somewhat premature.

Does Silver's polls plus model account for being unable to get a thread full of goons to Arzy about losing in the face of all contrary evidence? That seems like a pretty reliable indicator.

Samurai Sanders
Nov 4, 2003

Pillbug

euphronius posted:

Plagerism is an intentional act and it's not know if this was done intentionally.

Same with "lie" .
How could it not have been intentional? I mean, maybe whoever wrote it just Googled "first lady speech" but even if they didn't know it was Michelle's they would still know it was ripped off, because they ripped it off.

gregday
May 23, 2003

Why are they so afraid to use the words Radical Slovenian Plagiarism??

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

I mean if you can't even troll an SA thread into losing their minds about the Republican winning anymore, Trump really is in trouble.

gregday posted:

Why are they so afraid to use the words Radical Slovenian Plagiarism??

lol

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Vladimir Putin posted:

Because it's just a couple of sentences. The bigger story is that it appears to have been taken form their mortal enemy.

Honestly the biggest story to me is she couldn't come up with anything personal to say about her husband. It comes off like she barely knows him.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005
So far, Hillary has run a quietly competent campaign. I mean, her worst screwup in the last month (I'm not counting the email thing because that wasn't an unforced error) was probably the dumb Pokemon Go joke.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

exquisite tea posted:

If you say so. You're telling me what very well might happen due to voter demographics, but I'm just looking at the national polling trends in comparison to a state's Democratic or Republican lean, and I'm saying that in a scenario where it's 50/50 on election night, like it is right now, it's well within Trump's power to grab all of Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio for 273 EVs. Clinton could win every other swing state in contention right now, and it wouldn't matter. In fact if I were running Trump's campaign I would bet everything on that exact electoral map. Maybe this will change once the conventions are over, the polling picks up and all firms switch over to an LV model. But all metrics indicate that this is a tight race, at least as tight as it was in 2012, and I had more confidence in Obama's operation then to turn out votes. Trump doesn't ever have to get above 45% of the national vote, he just has to get more people than Hillary Clinton, who has favorability troubles of her own.

Florida's population is 55% White, and 17% Black - if Trump wins with that demographic makeup, he will have won by a lot more than 273 EVs.

Slate Action
Feb 13, 2012

by exmarx
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/755417290821230593

SHY NUDIST GRRL
Feb 15, 2011

Communism will help more white people than anyone else. Any equal measures unfairly provide less to minority populations just because there's less of them. Democracy is truly the tyranny of the mob.

Okay I couldn't catch up with thousands of posts. Is there anything I should absolutely know about from last night?

Bryter
Nov 6, 2011

but since we are small we may-
uh, we may be the losers

WampaLord posted:

You understand that 2012 wasn't a tight race at all, right?

It wasn't the massive blowout that goons were predicting. Weird.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Xandu posted:

Honestly the biggest story to me is she couldn't come up with anything personal to say about her husband. It comes off like she barely knows him.

Or she didn't have anything personal to say that is unequivocally positive.

Bryter posted:

It wasn't the massive blowout that goons were predicting. Weird.

Lol it was a 160 EV victory. And goons were predicting a Romney win, naturally.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

exquisite tea posted:

Obama polled on average 2.5% ahead of Romney up through election night, where he ended up winning by about 4% nationally. On the day of the election, 538 gave Obama about a 90% chance of winning according to their model. Good chances, but if I said that if you had a 10% chance of being struck by lightning when you walked outside today, you'd probably stay indoors.

Clinton's RCP lead over Trump is on average 2.7%, with a lot more uncertainty in the form of undecideds and third party candidates. Her current RCPs lead in PA (3.2%) OH (1.8%) and FL (.6%) are within striking distance of Trump depending on state-level fluctuations and even slight increases in the national vote. In a scenario where it's 50/50 on election night, Clinton's blue lean over Trump in Pennsylvania is only .5% relative to the national polling. That gap is well within the realm of possibility of Trump to overcome due to any number of statistical variations in voter turnout and national trends. It's more unlikely than Clinton winning, but to say it's not possible is perhaps somewhat premature.

It's "possible" but it isn't likely at all. Ok.

If Clinton keeps her professional, pos

Samurai Sanders posted:

How could it not have been intentional? I mean, maybe whoever wrote it just Googled "first lady speech" but even if they didn't know it was Michelle's they would still know it was ripped off, because they ripped it off.

That's a reasonable inference but news agencies don't like making those inferences when less negative language reports the news.

Unless it's Hillary and then all inferences are allowed.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Alter Ego posted:

So far, Hillary has run a quietly competent campaign. I mean, her worst screwup in the last month (I'm not counting the email thing because that wasn't an unforced error) was probably the dumb Pokemon Go joke.

peggy hill stuff like that is actually endearing to a lot of people

Michael Scott
Jan 3, 2010

by zen death robot

euphronius posted:

Plagerism is an intentional act and it's not know if this was done intentionally.

Same with "lie" .

Nah I disagree. Seems like the defnition of plagiarism differs based on who you talk to, but I am not sure if intent is part of the definition for most people.

gregday posted:

Why are they so afraid to use the words Radical Slovenian Plagiarism??

I like you

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

gregday posted:

Why are they so afraid to use the words Radical Slovenian Plagiarism??

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Bryter posted:

It wasn't the massive blowout that goons were predicting. Weird.

I don't recall anyone predicting a massive blowout, but a 100+ EV victory is a pretty robust victory, so :confused:

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Is there no Student Honor Council who can tell us if this is plagiarism or not?

sean10mm
Jun 29, 2005

It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD-2R World

Bryter posted:

It wasn't the massive blowout that goons were predicting. Weird.

Pretty sure almost all goons just copy-pasted what 538 said, which was mostly right.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

TheTatteredKing posted:

Okay I couldn't catch up with thousands of posts. Is there anything I should absolutely know about from last night?

chaos reigns

Takoluka
Jun 26, 2009

Don't look at me!



Louisgod posted:

I was wondering if this would come up. It happens every loving time with the Republicans.

Laws don't apply if it's something I want!

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Michael Scott posted:

Nah I disagree. Seems like the defnition of plagiarism differs based on who you talk to, but I am not sure if intent is part of the definition for most people.

If the academic definition is anything to go by, no, intent is irrelevant.

I expect any spokespeople from the DNC to go full Matt Santos on this issue--anyone that gets asked for it will immediately pivot the answer to a different issue. It's too hard for an opposing party to frame it without seeming like they're attacking Melania Trump, who is fast coming off as the more sympathetic figure here.

Fritz Coldcockin fucked around with this message at 16:10 on Jul 19, 2016

Michael Scott
Jan 3, 2010

by zen death robot

Alter Ego posted:

If the academic definition is anything to go by, no, intent is irrelevant.

Yeah that's what I remember from my schoolin' days

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Obama blew out Romney in the popular election too. He had like 5 million more votes.

iospace
Jan 19, 2038


TheTatteredKing posted:

Okay I couldn't catch up with thousands of posts. Is there anything I should absolutely know about from last night?

A good tl;dr got linked a few pages back:

Decius
Oct 14, 2005

Ramrod XTreme

Newt isn't Trump's Running Mate, sonwe are in a middling timeline at best.

pathetic little tramp
Dec 12, 2005

by Hillary Clinton's assassins
Fallen Rib

Alter Ego posted:

Problem is that if even if it is similar to that map, the theme for the next few weeks will be "Why did Hillary only get X amount of EVs? Trump must not have been conservative enough!"


Carson apparently has never heard of Michael Jackson :v:

Vitiligo is a hell of a thing

Slate Action
Feb 13, 2012

by exmarx
https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/755416451163521024

SirJohnnyMcDonald
Oct 24, 2010

by exmarx

TheTatteredKing posted:

Okay I couldn't catch up with thousands of posts. Is there anything I should absolutely know about from last night?

:nws:

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Somebody fucked around with this message at 19:05 on Jul 19, 2016

Samurai Sanders
Nov 4, 2003

Pillbug

zoux posted:

Is there no Student Honor Council who can tell us if this is plagiarism or not?
Plagiarism is also unacceptable in a professional context.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/HowardKurtz/status/755419253700907009

Yeah whoever that was!

Louisgod
Sep 25, 2003

Always Watching
Bread Liar

Takoluka posted:

Laws don't apply if it's something I want!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfLD-7bCtME

Bryter
Nov 6, 2011

but since we are small we may-
uh, we may be the losers

euphronius posted:

Plagerism is an intentional act and it's not know if this was done intentionally.

Same with "lie" .

Yeah, it' probably a coincidence that she expressed the same sentiments as Michelle Obama, using the same words, in the same order.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Samurai Sanders posted:

Plagiarism is also unacceptable in a professional context.

who said it wasnt

Phi230
Feb 2, 2016

by Fluffdaddy
plot twist, Trump wrote the speech

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich

zoux posted:

Is there no Student Honor Council who can tell us if this is plagiarism or not?

Having been in all stages of academia there's a difference between a student who was lazy a didn't want to do the work and copy and pasted a term paper vs a couple of sentences in a 200 page thesis that are ultimately inconsequential. In the latter case technically it is plagiarism but there's only a limited number of ways you can say something so most likely the PhD won't be revoked.

Samurai Sanders
Nov 4, 2003

Pillbug

zoux posted:

who said it wasnt
I thought you were making fun of plagiarism like it's only some student thing.

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Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

I'm guessing he had the biggest poo poo-eating Cheshire Cat grin on his face while he said this?

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