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Decius posted:Newt isn't Trump's Running Mate, sonwe are in a middling timeline at best. no, watching yet another straight-man conservative get humiliated and discredited while newt pretends he's not mad is fine
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Jul 19, 2016 16:12
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okay im really sure i dont understand 538s methodology at this point
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Jul 19, 2016 16:12
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zoux posted:Does Silver's polls plus model account for being unable to get a thread full of goons to Arzy about losing in the face of all contrary evidence? That seems like a pretty reliable indicator. I don't really see how discussing the ways in which Trump can win counts as "trolling." Again I don't think it's likelier than Clinton winning, but the oooh-rah confidence of some goons here is a little weird in light of what recent polling trends indicate, which is a tight and still uncertain race with a lack of consistent state-level polling.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:12
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Xandu posted:Honestly the biggest story to me is she couldn't come up with anything personal to say about her husband. It comes off like she barely knows him. it's more like whoever wrote that speech couldn't come up with anything personal to say, she had nothing to do with it and she'd probably rather have not given the speech in the first place
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Jul 19, 2016 16:13
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exquisite tea posted:I don't really see how discussing the ways in which Trump can win counts as "trolling." Again I don't think it's likelier than Clinton winning, but the oooh-rah confidence of some goons here is a little weird in light of what recent polling trends indicate, which is a tight and still uncertain race with a lack of consistent state-level polling. Because we've been through like 6 plus of these elections and we know how things shake out in November.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:14
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Badger of Basra posted:it's more like whoever wrote that speech couldn't come up with anything personal to say, she had nothing to do with it and she'd probably rather have not given the speech in the first place if the article on Trumps ghostwriter is anything to go by, its because theres nothing to say about the man. hes a one-dimensional cartoon character of a human being
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Jul 19, 2016 16:14
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If enough people tweet to Donald Trump's account that Manafort is blaming his wife for his own incompetent speech management, will he believe it and fire Manafort in an impulsive rage? Has a way been found to Stump the Trump?
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Jul 19, 2016 16:14
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News outlets don't have to use strong words like "ripped off" and "plagiarized" in headlines because all they have to do is post the side by side quotes. Like a Trumpernaut or garden-variety conservative likely wouldn't click on "Melania blatantly steals First Lady's speech!" but would click on something like "These speeches look pretty similar"
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Jul 19, 2016 16:14
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Corey's revenge. https://twitter.com/RosieGray/status/755420147205169152
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Jul 19, 2016 16:14
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exquisite tea posted:I don't really see how discussing the ways in which Trump can win counts as "trolling." Again I don't think it's likelier than Clinton winning, but the oooh-rah confidence of some goons here is a little weird in light of what recent polling trends indicate, which is a tight and still uncertain race with a lack of consistent state-level polling. OTOH you are encouraging us all to freak the gently caress out over mid July polling in the middle of the RNC. USPol would probably be a lot more receptive.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:15
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Xandu posted:Corey's revenge. 
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Jul 19, 2016 16:15
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Plagiarism on a stage like this isn't a world-ender like it is in academia, and the fact that it wasn't Trump himself who did it will ensure that. But it is embarrassing for Melania Trump and the people that wrote her speech, and the fact that they work for an insane orange baby man who likes firing people means their lives are about to get very hard.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:15
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Xandu posted:Corey's revenge. eheheheh
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Jul 19, 2016 16:15
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exquisite tea posted:Obama polled on average 2.5% ahead of Romney up through election night, where he ended up winning by about 4% nationally. On the day of the election, 538 gave Obama about a 90% chance of winning according to their model. Good chances, but if I said that if you had a 10% chance of being struck by lightning when you walked outside today, you'd probably stay indoors. You are listing numbers and statistics and not considering the context those numbers exist in. Ignoring, for a second, that 4% is literally millions of votes and not close at all, Obama's national average painted a picture of an election he could reasonably lose while the electoral math painted a picture of an election where he couldn't. 538 listed the chances at 90% for two reasons; 1. There was a chance all the pollsters were polling completely wrong 2. Nate didn't want to have to explain to people why he was putting down a 100% chance of Obama victory for an election that appears to a layman to be a horse race. It was mostly #1 and they were upfront about that. quote:Clinton's RCP lead over Trump is on average 2.7%, with a lot more uncertainty in the form of undecideds and third party candidates. Her current RCPs lead in PA (3.2%) OH (1.8%) and FL (.6%) are within striking distance of Trump depending on state-level fluctuations and even slight increases in the national vote. In a scenario where it's 50/50 on election night, Clinton's blue lean over Trump in Pennsylvania is only .5% relative to the national polling. That gap is well within the realm of possibility of Trump to overcome due to any number of statistical variations in voter turnout and national trends. It's more unlikely than Clinton winning, but to say it's not possible is perhaps somewhat premature. None of this matters, though, because of how that average is factored. That average represents the national polling average which is not representative of what one actually needs to win on election day. Trump's problem is that he is not maintaining numbers like this in states he absolutely needs to win and in the states he needs that are "close" (Ohio, Pennsylvania) his numbers aren't budging past what Romney got in those states, which is bad news, since Romney lost them both and Trump has a much smaller portion of capturable undecideds in this election. If he's not significantly budging the white vote it is literally impossible for him to win these states and if he was going to move the white vote in these states by the margins he needs to we would be seeing it happening. If Trump does not manage to swing positive in these states after the convention he will not win them, period. It is entirely possible he is at his ceiling in these places right now. I am not saying a Trump win is completely impossible, but it would take some pretty shockingly unlikely scenarios playing out for this to go in his favor. Either that, or all the pollsters have to be wrong. Generally Nate gives that about a 10% chance.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:16
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iospace posted:A good tl;dr got linked a few pages back: Jesus did he really talk about the oval office meme on stage
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Jul 19, 2016 16:16
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Xandu posted:Corey's revenge. 
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Jul 19, 2016 16:16
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Alter Ego posted:I don't recall anyone predicting a massive blowout, but a 100+ EV victory is a pretty robust victory, so I recall bunch of posters fantasising about insane landslides. Maybe they just stood out more, but that's what I remember.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:16
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Alter Ego posted:I'm guessing he had the biggest poo poo-eating Cheshire Cat grin on his face while he said this? 
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Jul 19, 2016 16:16
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Xandu posted:Corey's revenge. ahahaaha
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Jul 19, 2016 16:17
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theflyingexecutive posted:News outlets don't have to use strong words like "ripped off" and "plagiarized" in headlines because all they have to do is post the side by side quotes. Like a Trumpernaut or garden-variety conservative likely wouldn't click on "Melania blatantly steals First Lady's speech!" but would click on something like "These speeches look pretty similar" Morning Joe (I know, I know) actually did a decent job of this. They just played the speeches side-by-side and said "Yeah that pretty much speaks for itself, regardless of what Trump's people say."
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Jul 19, 2016 16:17
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euphronius posted:Because we've been through like 6 plus of these elections and we know how things shake out in November. Are you saying that to make me feel better, or you?
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Jul 19, 2016 16:17
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paranoid randroid posted:okay im really sure i dont understand 538s methodology at this point Apparently their new strategy is to be super biased and get things wrong.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:17
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exquisite tea posted:Are you saying that to make me feel better, or you? Mirthless had a better answer anyway
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Jul 19, 2016 16:18
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https://twitter.com/mlcalderone/status/755421464812220416 #BringBackLewandowski
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Jul 19, 2016 16:18
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Todays convention theme has now been changed to "sneering conservatively while listing off problems the country has that are worse than plagiarism" I haven't seen a second of footage but I know I'm 100 percent correct.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:18
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spunkshui posted:Apparently their new strategy is to be super biased and get things wrong. i dont even think its that like i dont read them with any kind of regularity so idk what black box theyre feeding this date into to get the numbers they do and nate silver just pops up from time to time to say, "trump got hisself a poll where he isnt losing, five thousand points to gryffindor"
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Jul 19, 2016 16:19
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Bryter posted:Yeah, it' probably a coincidence that she expressed the same sentiments as Michelle Obama, using the same words, in the same order. I have seen all the videos it was similar words but not exact. Also she has that accent which makes it sound more trusting.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:19
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Mirthless posted:You are listing numbers and statistics and not considering the context those numbers exist in. Ignoring, for a second, that 4% is literally millions of votes and not close at all, Obama's national average painted a picture of an election he could reasonably lose while the electoral math painted a picture of an election where he couldn't. 538 listed the chances at 90% for two reasons; 1. There was a chance all the pollsters were polling completely wrong 2. Nate didn't want to have to explain to people why he was putting down a 100% chance of Obama victory for an election that appears to a layman to be a horse race. It was mostly #1 and they were upfront about that. Hmm. Why do you think Nate is giving him a better chance than Romney?
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Jul 19, 2016 16:19
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zoux posted:OTOH you are encouraging us all to freak the gently caress out over mid July polling in the middle of the RNC. USPol would probably be a lot more receptive. You keep saying that people are telling you to freak out and stop laughing at Republicans, but that isn't actually what's happening.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:19
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Trump's campaign is apparently saying no one is being fired over this. Amazing.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:19
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Does Trump still dream in his golden keep
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Jul 19, 2016 16:20
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Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Is As Safe As Kerry’s Was In 2004
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Jul 19, 2016 16:20
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Bryter posted:You keep saying that people are telling you to freak out and stop laughing at Republicans, but that isn't actually what's happening. exquisite tea posted:Are you saying that to make me feel better, or you?
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Jul 19, 2016 16:21
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exquisite tea posted:Obama polled on average 2.5% ahead of Romney up through election night, where he ended up winning by about 4% nationally. On the day of the election, 538 gave Obama about a 90% chance of winning according to their model. Good chances, but if I said that if you had a 10% chance of being struck by lightning when you walked outside today, you'd probably stay indoors. Obama was also a well-liked incumbent with a proven voter turnout operation and a gift for campaigning. If you want an election where the opponent has single digit chances of winning you have to look to Kazakhstan, Russia, or today's Egypt. Even in Iran there were election upsets recently. Generally, in a democracy the other side has a 30 % chance even in the most adverse circumstances (and that's not even getting into multi-party systems and coalitions). Trump taking a naturally 50 % chance down to 35 % during his best time in polls is an accomplishment in itself.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:21
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The GOP has been doing this poo poo for a while, but the way the Trump campaign seems to jump on the whole "cut off your nose to spite your face and get a facebook meme level burn in on a liberal" like a starved tiger is amazing. Its Benghazis all the way down. This didn't turn out the way we wanted so instead of engaging with reality in any way, lets just sit around acting shocked that no one else is interested and call it a conspiracy.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:22
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iospace posted:A good tl;dr got linked a few pages back: I just want to take a minute to thank Donald Trump, from the bottom of my heart, for bringing the phrase "illegals" back to the Republican Party
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Jul 19, 2016 16:22
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Jul 19, 2016 16:23
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paranoid randroid posted:okay im really sure i dont understand 538s methodology at this point in this election season, I don't think they do either this election honestly is just so baffling and goes against conventional wisdom at practically every turn
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Jul 19, 2016 16:23
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Did Kerry ever actually lead in 2004? I recall him coming very close around the convention, but RCP consistently had Bush +1 or Bush +2 in the aggregates. I remember some lovely exit polling that suggested Kerry was winning, but that's about it.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:24
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TheTatteredKing posted:Hmm. Why do you think Nate is giving him a better chance than Romney? there's a whole lot more uncertainty this year both in terms of self-described undecideds and especially in terms of we have no idea who the hell is actually going to bother to show up to vote this year
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Jul 19, 2016 16:24
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