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(and also Obamas in 2008/2012 but hey)
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Jul 19, 2016 16:24
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i think nates just given up and decided its easy to be a commentator
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Jul 19, 2016 16:24
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http://election.princeton.edu/todays-electoral-vote-histogram/ Trumps odds to win basically haven't moved in forever, in spite of the fluctuation in individual polls, because there is no realistic path through the EC for him. It's almost like it's not a real thing because everyone but old white people loving hate him and he can't create more of them out of thin air and deposit them all in Ohio and Florida.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:25
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TheTatteredKing posted:Hmm. Why do you think Nate is giving him a better chance than Romney? Because Nate has been drinking his own kool aid for the last four years and can't stop being a pundit Mostly, though, because it's July, and polling data is neither widely available nor consistent. Romney's chances were a lot better in July too.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:25
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paranoid randroid posted:i think nates just given up and decided its easy to be a commentator Did he just decide that Trump was as good a candidate and as popular as Bush in 2004 too?
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Jul 19, 2016 16:25
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I think he got Trump wrong the first time and is worried about doing it twice.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:25
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idk man, i aint the Nate Whisperer
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Jul 19, 2016 16:25
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Alter Ego posted:Did Kerry ever actually lead in 2004? I recall him coming very close around the convention, but RCP consistently had Bush +1 or Bush +2 in the aggregates. 538's own article lists that Kerry was winning heading into the conventions but was losing a month later, and obviously never recovered. So I guess we need to wait and see what things look like next month.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:26
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Alter Ego posted:Did Kerry ever actually lead in 2004? I recall him coming very close around the convention, but RCP consistently had Bush +1 or Bush +2 in the aggregates. 
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Jul 19, 2016 16:26
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He also can't predict turnout so no one really knows anything
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Jul 19, 2016 16:26
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Xandu posted:I think he got Trump wrong the first time and is worried about doing it twice. Yeah, I know this is dangerously close to unskewing, but after the bath he took on twitter and the media I think he's putting his finger on the scale, and he may not even realize it. https://twitter.com/Brian_Sweany/status/755423350403452928 And we all made fun of CNN for being stupid, they knew exactly what they were doing.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:26
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Re: Trump having a better chance than Romney Maybe right now, but Romney ate poo poo while campaigning and Trump has rented out the golden corral of poo poo for the next 5 months.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:26
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Cardboard Box A posted:A sheriff is trying to argue against the facts of a drop in crime. He offers instead a feeling: that people do not feel secure in their communities. Again, it is vital to avoid the data or the facts. What matters is pure feeling. This goes of course also for the Black Lives Matter activists, whose core and central argument is that black men are disproportionately killed by cops. The best data shows this is false – just as their narrative about Michael Brown was false. Thanks in part to the radicalized racial left – we now have merely one identity politics waging war against another. They have a terrible inter-relationship, these two illiberalisms. They foment each other. Sullivan is still really stupid about black people I guess.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:27
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Yes, predicting an election like this one in July is a fool's errand. If you go by the stats, it looks somewhat in Hillary's favor, somewhat not. But I think the lesson has been that this is not an election that is like the past ones, and we're kind of in uncharted territory where the stats aren't nearly as valid because we just don't have enough information about an aberration like this one. Lesson being, enjoy the fuckups and try not to get too worried, because at this point it's like predicting weather 4 months in advance.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:27
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I hope that the election ends up with Hillary winning the electoral college but Trump claiming a thin margin in the popular vote
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Jul 19, 2016 16:28
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Scrub-Niggurath posted:I hope that the election ends up with Hillary winning the electoral college but Trump claiming a thin margin in the popular vote The Worst Scenario
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Jul 19, 2016 16:29
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sean10mm posted:http://election.princeton.edu/todays-electoral-vote-histogram/ This is it, right here. It's electoral math that fucks Trump. He could win 50-60% of the vote overall and still lose - possibly by wide margins - because of how limited the number of "available" EVs there are. There's just too much safe Democrat for him to overcome and he doesn't have the room to create swing states out of those Safe and Leans-D states because of his lack of support among minorities. Romney had mainstream appeal and he got embarrassed on election day. Trump's got only one or two roads to the EV number he needs to win and those roads are very narrow and have a lot of opportunities to end prematurely.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:29
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drat. Well, that just speaks to the uselessness of national polls, I guess.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:29
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ashpanash posted:Yes, predicting an election like this one in July is a fool's errand. If you go by the stats, it looks somewhat in Hillary's favor, somewhat not. But I think the lesson has been that this is not an election that is like the past ones, and we're kind of in uncharted territory where the stats aren't nearly as valid because we just don't have enough information about an aberration like this one. I think though that predicting d turnout between 2008 and 2012 is reasonable where as ho ho R turnout .. Who knows. How many d votes get siphoned off to L and G is also up in the air I guess.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:29
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Alter Ego posted:Plagiarism on a stage like this isn't a world-ender like it is in academia, and the fact that it wasn't Trump himself who did it will ensure that. Once again, it's the insanity of the Trump campaign that makes this into a thing. Just like the sherifs' star, all they need to do is a simple, "Oops, we screwed up. That was embarrassing. Melina wrote the speech and not being a professional speech writer, she made a simple rookie mistake. She had put that paragraph in there as a placeholder and then forgot to replace it." Instead we get, "It's Hillary's fault for making a big deal about this!" "But they haven't said anything about this." "Lies!"
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Jul 19, 2016 16:29
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ashpanash posted:Yes, predicting an election like this one in July is a fool's errand. If you go by the stats, it looks somewhat in Hillary's favor, somewhat not. But I think the lesson has been that this is not an election that is like the past ones, and we're kind of in uncharted territory where the stats aren't nearly as valid because we just don't have enough information about an aberration like this one. I'm rather fatalistic about it. If America actually elects Donald Trump president, then we will richly deserve everything that happens as a result. It will really suck and I'm not looking forward to it, of course, but it will be the just result.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:31
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So I assume that Trump's pick of Pence for VP shows that he/his advisors do not understand and/or deny how the EV math works out for him.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:31
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And to think, the media could have spent the entire morning news cycle talking about Benghazi.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:31
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Scrub-Niggurath posted:I hope that the election ends up with Hillary winning the electoral college but Trump claiming a thin margin in the popular vote This is also what I'm hoping for. It would be so awesome to see people defend the Electoral College.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:31
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Nate Silver, Hillary Clinton, and Donald Trump are all friends IRL.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:32
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Shageletic posted:Sullivan is still really stupid about black people I guess. Seriously why do left wing people like Sullivan? That guy is awful.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:32
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ashpanash posted:If you go by the stats, it looks somewhat in Hillary's favor, somewhat not. If you "go by the stats" right now Clinton wins by like 320-218.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:32
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Mirthless posted:This is it, right here. It's electoral math that fucks Trump. He could win 50-60% of the vote overall and still lose - possibly by wide margins - because of how limited the number of "available" EVs there are. There's just too much safe Democrat for him to overcome and he doesn't have the room to create swing states out of those Safe and Leans-D states because of his lack of support among minorities. Romney had mainstream appeal and he got embarrassed on election day. Trump's got only one or two roads to the EV number he needs to win and those roads are very narrow and have a lot of opportunities to end prematurely. As it stands this election is very much Hillary's to lose.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:33
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Scrub-Niggurath posted:I hope that the election ends up with Hillary winning the electoral college but Trump claiming a thin margin in the popular vote I hope Trump gets stomped into the ground in both EVs and popular vote, and he fades away forever. I'd like to think this is inevitable, but hey, people still support him despite everything so far.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:33
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Shalebridge Cradle posted:Seriously why do left wing people like Sullivan? That guy is awful. He's a good writer, so it feels good when he agrees with you.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:33
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Deteriorata posted:I'm rather fatalistic about it. If America actually elects Donald Trump president, then we will richly deserve everything that happens as a result. It will really suck and I'm not looking forward to it, of course, but it will be the just result.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:33
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disjoe posted:So I assume that Trump's pick of Pence for VP shows that he/his advisors do not understand and/or deny how the EV math works out for him. My take or it was it is a desperate act to fend off a coup at the convention and a hail Mary to try and generate some turnout in November from evangelicals. Of course as has been talked about above it does nothing to help him win pa or Florida. Might help in Ohio tho.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:34
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Thread is moving too fast again. Has anybody mentioned Trump's personal letter to Jorge Ramos yet? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDHF4KaLynE
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Jul 19, 2016 16:34
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I question the ability of the GOP to get turnout any higher than it was in 2008 or 2012. The right-wing rage machine ran up the law of diminishing returns in 2012 when they realized that ginning up outrage among white people was only going to get Romney about 47% of the vote--and he didn't do nearly as much to piss off the Hispanic community that Trump has.' Even if Hillary gets only 3-4% more of white people and white women than Obama did, Trump will lose and lose big, and I'd put money on minority margins being NO smaller than they were in 2012--in fact, I'd wager the margin in the Hispanic vote will be even wider.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:34
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sean10mm posted:If you "go by the stats" right now Clinton wins by like 320-218. If Trump started squatting would that help?
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Jul 19, 2016 16:34
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Shalebridge Cradle posted:Seriously why do left wing people like Sullivan? That guy is awful. do we like nate silver? ive never seen anything but mockery directed at him from the left. the old bush-era bloggers used to call him "sully the pooh"
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Jul 19, 2016 16:35
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sean10mm posted:http://election.princeton.edu/todays-electoral-vote-histogram/ You're going to be sad election night. Trump is going to sweep the swing states and probably pull off an upset no one expects, like Michigan. Two old white democrats on a ticket aren't going to get the minority vote out that carried Obama.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:35
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But it's not good that Trump is working to defend his right flank at all. Imho. I mean I guess if they think their path is an intensely negative, low turnout affair.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:35
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L-Boned posted:You're going to be sad election night. Trump is going to sweep the swing states and probably pull off an upset no one expects, like Michigan. Two old white democrats on a ticket aren't going to get the minority vote out that carried Obama. (citation needed)
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Jul 19, 2016 16:36
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there was one gay guy who really hated the poo poo out of him and would refer to him exclusively as The Bugchaser
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Jul 19, 2016 16:36
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