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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I think I screwed that up, because I do recall pooled variance being superior. Remind me how we approached that again? I think I might have copied stuff over from an older sheet. Oh, yeah I can't actually see where your tiers come from, but your description says you are grouping players within 1 SD of the mean projection for the player at the top of the tier. What we did last year after a bit of back and forth is still saved on google drive here. It takes a "pooled variance" approach with a moving tier average. Essentially, it adds players to a tier (in order) until either A) the player to add is a specified distance from the weighted tier mean (in units of the pooled variance for the whole tier), or B) the player to add would lower the mean of the tier enough to move the player at the top of the tier a specified distance from the weighted tier mean (also in units of the pooled variance for the whole tier). The columns highlighted in yellow are the columns of formulas I added to the beersheet backend you provided last year (you could probably consolidate this considerably, but I opted to make it easy to follow rather than concise). Most of the columns won't work until they are all filled in. The "specified distance" for cutoffs is set in two places in the formula in column A. Currently, it uses a cutoff of 2/3 of a standard deviation. This is approximately equal to a 50% confidence interval for a normally distributed variable. To make this 1 SD instead of 2/3 SD, just delete the two instances of "2/3" in that column.
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Jul 19, 2016 03:03
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It's worth noting that Arian is not the type of guy who will play through an injury. Not to say he's not a tough guy or "soft" or any stupid hot take, just that he's kind of a perfectionist and wants his body fully ready to cooperate with his desire. If you watched his prime years you will never doubt that he goes hard on every play he can. The fact that he signed now, instead of taking the opportunity to skip training camp reps, tells me that his Achilles is probably responding well. I try not to put too much emphasis on "intangibles" or "good vibes" but Arian Foster is like the ultimate "intangibles/good vibes" type of player, so when he says he's ready to play I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt. And as said before, Arian might actually benefit from a limited workload -- he can get 8-12 touches a game and go full-blast on every one, without the pressure of being the every-down workhorse. Arian's always been an underrated asset in the passing game, so he could end up being a PPR value pick while Ajayi handles the early-down work. Benne fucked around with this message at 08:54 on Jul 19, 2016 |
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Jul 19, 2016 08:49
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So I'm in a pretty deep dynasty league(2qb, 30 roster spots) and I'm having trouble deciding who of my bubble guys to cut in order to make room for the rookie draft. I need to cut 4 out of Dontrelle Inman, Keith Mumphery, Chris Polk, Jonathan Grimes, Kendall Gaskins & Shaun Draughn. I also have a kicker (Mcmanus) and a D/St(Bengals) on the roster but people hoard both of those positions so streaming those don't really work. Right now I'm thinking of keeping Draughn and flipping a coin between the two WRs Edit: Standard scoring, 0 ppr
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Jul 19, 2016 10:44
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Thelonius Van Funk posted:Right now I'm thinking of keeping Draughn and flipping a coin between the two WRs Yeah, sounds about right. Don't lose any sleep over it, haha.
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Jul 19, 2016 12:18
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Thelonius Van Funk posted:So I'm in a pretty deep dynasty league(2qb, 30 roster spots) and I'm having trouble deciding who of my bubble guys to cut in order to make room for the rookie draft. I need to cut 4 out of Dontrelle Inman, Keith Mumphery, Chris Polk, Jonathan Grimes, Kendall Gaskins & Shaun Draughn. I also have a kicker (Mcmanus) and a D/St(Bengals) on the roster but people hoard both of those positions so streaming those don't really work. Right now I'm thinking of keeping Draughn and flipping a coin between the two WRs Considering Chris Polk is an FA I'd drop him. Mumphery is also likely behind Shorts, Washington and maybe even Fuller so he's probably not worth wasting a roster slot on either.
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Jul 19, 2016 15:49
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I'm just impressed there's a league deep enough to roster Kendall Gaskins. Currently #6 on the 49ers' depth chart.
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Jul 19, 2016 15:55
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Also here is my hot take about Arian Foster 2.6 YPC in 2016, (more carries for zero or no yards than more than 4), turns 30 in a month and a half, coming off injury and will likely be a full blown committee. I'm good thanks.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:00
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So like, unrosterable? Seems a bit extreme
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Jul 19, 2016 16:12
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Finally got around to doing a more complete cluster analysis of running backs over in GroundControl. Some fantasy-relevant notes: - Despite the awesome season by David Johnson, it was Gurley that got the better comparables (he was grouped with the other franchise backs, like AP and Charles). - Matt Jones got grouped with TRich and Alfred Blue. - Langford was comped with the likes of Bilal Powell instead of Forte. - Yeldon was comped with SJax, and Melvin Gordon with Tre Mason. - Buck Allen is a big weirdo that doesn't really run like anybody else in the database. - Miller and Mathews were lumped right next to JStew and Ivory. - Forte and Foster are still the two most closely matched players in the database (over the past six years). - Thomas Rawls might be really loving good. - Latavius really looks like a McFadden clone. - Duke and Draughn are close to being in the Vereen/Woodhead mold of passing-down backs, but Benny Cunningham is already there.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:33
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His ADP before the signing was RB39. His upside is splitting the backfield enough so that he gets touches enough to be productive but not so many that he gets hurt. Guys I'd rather have behind him at that point in the draft. Charles Sims, RB40 Theo Riddick, RB44 (PPR) Tevin Coleman, RB48 (and I don't believe in Tevin Coleman) Kenneth Dixon, RB49 C.J. Prosise, RB55 DeAndre Washington, RB62
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Jul 19, 2016 16:36
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Spoeank posted:His ADP before the signing was RB39. His upside is splitting the backfield enough so that he gets touches enough to be productive but not so many that he gets hurt. Oh yeah that's all fine, but if he's there in the last few rounds I'd take a shot at Foster. I would take Foster over Prosise and probably Washington, but I don't think we're too far apart on his value. I can't believe Sims and Riddick are going so late after last year, either.
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Jul 19, 2016 19:07
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Oh that's my point. He won't be there. From what I'm hearing/seeing today, he's suddenly a single-digit round player. Barf.
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Jul 19, 2016 19:10
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Spoeank posted:Oh that's my point. He won't be there. From what I'm hearing/seeing today, he's suddenly a single-digit round player. Just means you can quietly get Jay later!
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Jul 19, 2016 21:27
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Forever_Peace posted:Oh, yeah I can't actually see where your tiers come from, but your description says you are grouping players within 1 SD of the mean projection for the player at the top of the tier. Thanks for the link. I think what happened is that I meant to use that method but forgot about it and just used my previous sheet. I did remember looking at things when I started back up and going "didn't I have a better method"? Turns out we did.
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Jul 19, 2016 21:47
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Spoeank posted:Also here is my hot take about Arian Foster He was still a RB2 on average in his 4 games last season in PPR league though. In half ppr his weekly points were 5 16.3 19.7 27 And they'd all be higher in full PPR. Almost like 80% of his points came from the receptions and yards, he definitely won't be running with the ball as much in Miami, but i wouldn't find it surprising if he got a good amount of passing work. I wouldn't take him anywhere near past seasons, but if he drops to a mid to late round, i'd certainly think about grabbing him in a PPR league. VietCampo fucked around with this message at 23:14 on Jul 19, 2016 |
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Jul 19, 2016 23:12
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Well that worked out super easy Forever_Peace. Thanks for your help again; the new method has been incorporated and looks much better.
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Jul 20, 2016 00:21
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VietCampo posted:He was still a RB2 on average in his 4 games last season in PPR league though. The receptions may provide enough PPR value but the Dolphins have more depth at WR/TE than the Texans did. At best, he may be third in red zone target share after Landry and Parker, so I'm not optimistic about his scoring upside either. If he's Tannehill's #3 option, that doesn't interest me a whole lot. Feels like a low--upside RB2 to me.
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Jul 20, 2016 00:34
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Why is Rishard Matthews ranked so low dynasty wise? He was productive last year when he wasn't injured, is young, potentially a top 2 target on the Titans, and Mariota needs someone to throw to. What am I not seeing here? Does he not have talent?
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Jul 20, 2016 00:47
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Nawid posted:Why is Rishard Matthews ranked so low dynasty wise? He was productive last year when he wasn't injured, is young, potentially a top 2 target on the Titans, and Mariota needs someone to throw to. What am I not seeing here? Does he not have talent? Nawid posted:What am I not seeing here? Nawid posted:Titans You had the answer the whole time
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Jul 20, 2016 00:51
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How does Rishard fit in ~*~exotic smash mouth~*~ Also Tiptoes posted:
This. Also this is assuming he can stay healthy (he can't).
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Jul 20, 2016 00:54
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Arian Foster this year is the same thing as Arian Foster last year: draft him late, trade him to a rube, profit
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Jul 20, 2016 00:58
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I am excited to see how Mathews plays now that he's a day 1 focal point of the offense
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Jul 20, 2016 01:03
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Nawid posted:Why is Rishard Matthews ranked so low dynasty wise? He was productive last year when he wasn't injured, is young, potentially a top 2 target on the Titans, and Mariota needs someone to throw to. What am I not seeing here? Does he not have talent? Dynasty wise he probably only has 1 year as a starter.
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Jul 20, 2016 01:04
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Well that worked out super easy Forever_Peace. Thanks for your help again; the new method has been incorporated and looks much better. No problem. Glad it worked out!
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Jul 20, 2016 04:28
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Steve Smith has a ninth round ADP loving ell oh ell
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Jul 22, 2016 03:49
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Spoeank posted:Steve Smith has a ninth round ADP Someone in that offense is going to put up points. My money is on Aiken but I can't really fault someone for taking a shot on smith, Wallace, or Periman.
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Jul 22, 2016 03:54
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He has the highest ADP. The 37 year old coming off a torn achilles has the highest ADP. I'm achin' for some Aiken so I'm biased Edit: It's the highest by over 50 picks by the way Spoeank fucked around with this message at 04:05 on Jul 22, 2016 |
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Jul 22, 2016 04:01
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Spoeank posted:He has the highest ADP. The 37 year old coming off a torn achilles has the highest ADP. Not to mention that he's actively telling reporters that maybe he just quits once gets the 39 catches he needs to get to 1000 career. Aiken is the only (e: Baltimore) receiver I'd draft right now outside of deep stashes/dynasty, though I can imagine someone emerging as a usable TE during camp or early in the season. Veritek83 fucked around with this message at 12:39 on Jul 22, 2016 |
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Jul 22, 2016 05:10
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Aiken was one catch shy of 100 catches, 1200 yards and 8 touchdowns last year. The only thing stopping him from getting there again is an old broken (literally) Steve Smith. His ADP is behind Justin Tucker. what the hell is happening I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.
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Jul 22, 2016 05:25
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What if that catch was touchdown? Makes you think
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Jul 22, 2016 05:35
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whoopsie daisy I was reading his career line. 944 yards and 5 TDs on 75 receptions last year. 50 receptions, 611 yards and 3 TD in eight games after Smith went down. Still Steve Smith is gonna be fuckin garbage don't draft his rear end
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Jul 22, 2016 06:01
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I got so gosh darn angry http://theinscribermag.com/uncategorized/fantasy-football-youre-drafting-the-wrong-ravens-wide-receiver.html
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Jul 22, 2016 06:39
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Well I imagine DeAngelo Williams starts getting drafted higher. http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/17124034/pittsburgh-steelers-rb-leveon-bell-facing-four-game-ban-missed-drug-test
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Jul 22, 2016 14:28
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AP is gonna be the only first round RB with a full season of use under his belt unless this lifts Miller into the first 
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Jul 22, 2016 14:33
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Spoeank posted:AP is gonna be the only first round RB with a full season of use under his belt unless this lifts Miller into the first I'm taking Miller in the first
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Jul 22, 2016 14:49
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Jeeze Bell.
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Jul 22, 2016 14:52
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Might need to pump the brakes on that Zeke hype train.
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Jul 22, 2016 15:29
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Why do my keepers always get suspended 
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Jul 22, 2016 15:29
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RCarr posted:Why do my keepers always get suspended  (psy-burghers)
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Jul 22, 2016 15:35
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Quit being shitheads, football dudes 
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Jul 22, 2016 16:11
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