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C7ty1 posted:Been a long road, all. Cheers to whoever made money off this madness and will continue to do so. I've been waiting a long time for my first bets on this site to pay off. 
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Jul 20, 2016 00:58
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After a year of waiting my RNOM money will finally be free! Grats boys! We did it!! RIP to those who died
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Jul 20, 2016 01:04
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How the gently caress did you guys predict RNOM successfully with no hedging a year in advance?
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Jul 20, 2016 01:20
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Also  my G/L'Ol RNOM kept me waaaay in the green for so long. This is gonna take a long time to get used to.
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Jul 20, 2016 01:22
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Michael Scott posted:How the gently caress did you guys predict RNOM successfully with no hedging a year in advance?
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Jul 20, 2016 01:55
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Michael Scott posted:How the gently caress did you guys predict RNOM successfully with no hedging a year in advance? They picked the guy with a huge lead in the polls--something Nate Silver didn't even contemplate.
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Jul 20, 2016 01:56
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welp I've posted about this market about a dozen times, and the price keeps getting more and more insane (in my mind), so who knows, but Gary Johnson's June Fundraising >$1M NOs now down to 62/63c... https://www.predictit.org/Market/2239/What-will-Gary-Johnson's-monthly-fundraising-be-for-June
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Jul 20, 2016 02:01
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Michael Scott posted:How the gently caress did you guys predict RNOM successfully with no hedging a year in advance? If it makes you feel any better, I also bought this at the same time. 
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Jul 20, 2016 02:15
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nice job on the Biden thing tho.
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Jul 20, 2016 02:22
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thethreeman posted:welp I've posted about this market about a dozen times, and the price keeps getting more and more insane (in my mind), so who knows, but Gary Johnson's June Fundraising >$1M NOs now down to 62/63c...
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Jul 20, 2016 02:26
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Paper With Lines posted:nice job on the Biden thing tho. You like that?
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Jul 20, 2016 02:28
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I find it really weird that they have Maryland up for a "who will win it in November" market.
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Jul 20, 2016 02:34
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Yeah I rushed into it as soon as I got the email hoping I could get a repeat of the VA market-open but there were already thousands of shares pegged at .98 
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Jul 20, 2016 02:43
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Peachstapler posted:I'm on the B1 NO, biggly. No way he raises over a million space bucks. why? isn't he far more visible this election? how much did he raise last month? either way, seems smarter to buy yes at 20 on b2 and b3 than no at 60 on b1 abelwingnut has issued a correction as of 14:23 on Jul 20, 2016 |
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Jul 20, 2016 14:18
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I think the trump speech ratings are gonna be below 35 million for sure.
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Jul 20, 2016 15:17
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Abel Wingnut posted:why? isn't he far more visible this election? how much did he raise last month? YES on B2, B3, and B4 add up to 56 cents. 
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Jul 20, 2016 15:56
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fishmech posted:I find it really weird that they have Maryland up for a "who will win it in November" market. Why, because it's non-competitive? It doesn't seem like that's always their top priority when choosing which markets to put up. The one Congressional race here (MN) they put up is indeed the one that (I think) has the most potential to be dramatic, but it remains to be seen whether that potential will be realized. But for something like MD.Prez it's probably still good research fodder  edit: and I am going to stay the heck out of the Johnson June fundraising market today. I flipped shares early in it and I have no desire to get burned by the "obvious" choice two months in a row 
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Jul 20, 2016 17:12
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yea, feel like it's way better to enter the fundraising markets when they open and try to get low prices of yes in every tier. too late to enter now unless you have the number
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Jul 20, 2016 17:44
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So far it's not looking too good for those of us hoping for a big Trump convention bounce. Halfway through and the convention's been a half-empty debacle.
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Jul 20, 2016 22:24
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vox, you crashed that market!
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Jul 20, 2016 22:33
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FourLeaf posted:So far it's not looking too good for those of us hoping for a big Trump convention bounce. Halfway through and the convention's been a half-empty debacle. polls aren't released on the same day that the actual polling is done 
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Jul 20, 2016 22:45
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Yeah, we still have a good 3-4 days until the earliest "bumps" will pan out. That said, the run-up is probably getting baked in (along with the French attack fallout and the Turkey Coup....god, seems like forever ago, not a week).
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Jul 20, 2016 23:19
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a cop posted:I think the trump speech ratings are gonna be below 35 million for sure. This has doubled since I posted it
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Jul 20, 2016 23:22
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Lutha Mahtin posted:polls aren't released on the same day that the actual polling is done I assume you know that there's a lot of things you could have bet on that would have benefited from a convention bump, not just this week's poll market. Here's a non-exhaustive list off the top of my head: Trump.USPrez16.YES Clinton.USPrez16.NO Dem.PrezParty.NO Rep.PrezParty.YES 370.DEMPREZ16.NO Plenty of swing states but especially NC.USPREZ16
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Jul 20, 2016 23:24
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EngineerSean posted:I assume you know that there's a lot of things you could have bet on that would have benefited from a convention bump, not just this week's poll market. My post was just astonishment that someone reading this thread wouldn't understand the basic way that most all polls are conducted, where they do the polling over a few days and then check over things for a couple days/weeks before releasing it. I'm sure the bounces will provide good opportunities for flips and cheap shares though!
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Jul 21, 2016 00:26
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Johnson Fundraising trip report: it was B3.
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Jul 21, 2016 00:46
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I made a decent return (in my small-stakes way) just buying a bunch of B1 no and B5 no last week. That market was hilariously out of whack, the yeses added up to like 120 most of the time.
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Jul 21, 2016 00:57
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If 39.9 million or fewer people tune into Trump's speech I win big. Lots of people are going by historical #s and I'm hopin' that enough people have stopped giving a poo poo about tuning into things live these days that it'll make up the difference. People are forgetting that we've largely become a streaming culture over the last few years.
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Jul 21, 2016 01:25
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a cop posted:If 39.9 million or fewer people tune into Trump's speech I win big. Lots of people are going by historical #s and I'm hopin' that enough people have stopped giving a poo poo about tuning into things live these days that it'll make up the difference. People are forgetting that we've largely become a streaming culture over the last few years. I think they include dvr in ratings now right?
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Jul 21, 2016 01:32
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Baddog posted:I think they include dvr in ratings now right? Even so, aint nobody got cable these days.
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Jul 21, 2016 01:36
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yuh
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Jul 21, 2016 01:55
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Baddog posted:I think they include dvr in ratings now right? They're using the set of Neilsen ratings that get released the day after broadcast. I don't follow the ratings industry but my guess would be these numbers won't include many DVRs, if any.
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Jul 21, 2016 02:06
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Lutha Mahtin posted:My post was just astonishment that someone reading this thread wouldn't understand the basic way that most all polls are conducted, where they do the polling over a few days and then check over things for a couple days/weeks before releasing it. I'm sure the bounces will provide good opportunities for flips and cheap shares though! I'm well aware of how polls are conducted; I was referring to markets like "Which Party will win the 2016 Presidential Election?" where if the convention had been perceived as a rousing success, I would have expected to see a steadily rising price shift each day. People don't always wait for polls before buying. EngineerSean posted:I assume you know that there's a lot of things you could have bet on that would have benefited from a convention bump, not just this week's poll market. Here's a non-exhaustive list off the top of my head: This post, basically.
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Jul 21, 2016 02:36
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Trump with $26m in June receipts, dammit!
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Jul 21, 2016 02:45
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fist bump man
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Jul 21, 2016 02:47
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I have no idea why Johnson >1million NO dropped to 40 for a bit, but thanks for the $$$$
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Jul 21, 2016 03:18
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FourLeaf posted:I'm well aware of how polls are conducted; I was referring to markets like "Which Party will win the 2016 Presidential Election?" where if the convention had been perceived as a rousing success, I would have expected to see a steadily rising price shift each day. People don't always wait for polls before buying. The phrase "convention bounce", when used to describe a US Presidential race, refers to poll numbers. Your pet definition (backpedal?) here makes even less sense than if you had used the generally accepted definition, since the assumption it relies upon is that users of an obscure website for politics nerds has a significant portion of its user population who would change their opinion based on a modern major-party convention.
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Jul 21, 2016 04:43
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Yes and we're on a site full of other people who know this and we're all trying to predict what everyone else will do before they do it.
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Jul 21, 2016 05:20
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Lutha Mahtin posted:The phrase "convention bounce", when used to describe a US Presidential race, refers to poll numbers. What the hell? I don't know why you've decided I can use a word in only one way and never apply it to new situations, but the meaning was obvious. The only person backpedaling here is you. Lutha Mahtin posted:Your pet definition (backpedal?) here makes even less sense than if you had used the generally accepted definition, since the assumption it relies upon is that users of an obscure website for politics nerds has a significant portion of its user population who would change their opinion based on a modern major-party convention. How the gently caress does it make "even less sense"? There are plenty of examples of people on PI changing their opinion based on events rather than polls. The first one that comes to mind is Christie humiliating Rubio in the debate before the New Hampshire primary. Rubio shares immediately started dropping before the debate was even over. It's not exactly a far loving stretch to think something similar could possibly happen during the convention. But go ahead and keep being an obnoxious pedant. FourLeaf has issued a correction as of 05:35 on Jul 21, 2016 |
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Jul 21, 2016 05:31
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That indictment contract was hilariously mispriced. At one point it was a 67/33 favorite!
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Jul 21, 2016 06:18
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