|
Dr.Zeppelin posted:we're also going to learn how much investing in a sophisticated field operation is going to mean when only one side does it yep. who knows what that is going to mean.
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:48
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 22:27 |
|
|
nate is gonna lose all of his hair by the end of this election
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:49
|
|
|
Alter Ego posted:Actually it's more like "Don't you hate Hillary Clinton? Don't you wanna stick it to her? Vote Trump out of spite!" drat you're right and that will definitely work a lot better re: Bernouts wonder how it feels to be the PUMAs of 2016
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:49
|
|
|
mannerup posted:nate is gonna lose all of his hair by the end of this election it's gonna be super lol if it's not close and nate ends up completely eating poo poo again
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:51
|
|
|
Nate doesn't exactly have a stellar track record when it comes to predicting Trump's chances.
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:51
|
|
|
Samuel Clemens posted:Nate doesn't exactly have a stellar track record when it comes to predicting Trump's chances. this time he is strictly using poll data to make his conclusions though
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:52
|
|
|
TRUMP! also 538 is dumb TRUMP! you guys should be pissing in ur liberal pantsuits we're so close to TRUMP
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:52
|
|
|
hell i'm just impressed the gop is together enough to put out even just one webpage about kaine
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:52
|
|
|
i've been having fun making 269-269 maps. it's 'nice'
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:52
|
|
|
 40%
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:53
|
|
|
Zas posted:i've been having fun making 269-269 maps. it's 'nice' 
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:54
|
|
|
FORTY PERCENT 40 40%%%%% 40 TRUMP PENSE!
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:54
|
|
|
I'm with the Natedawg on this one. Some people already seem to be writing off this election in defiance of all polling data that shows a very close vote at this moment in time.
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:55
|
|
|
when trump becomes president we will be able to say  again
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:55
|
|
|
Baloogan posted:
its 58.7% - 41.3% currently! odds on Nate just hedging his bets so he can claim he was kinda-right this time no matter who wins are good though?
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:55
|
|
|
Baloogan posted:when trump becomes president we will be able to say cuck again hell folks have been saying that in this thread for months now edit: boom, pre-edit snypa
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:56
|
|
|
cuck!
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:56
|
|
|
Nate's right. Anyone smug about a 4% poll lead is not.
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:57
|
|
|
my bony fealty posted:its 58.7% - 41.3% currently! National polls are very close. State polls are a little less close, but not comfortable.
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:57
|
|
|
cuck cuck cuck cuck cuck cuck uckc cuihocuoi sdjmfojsudfdijckmsd (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:57
|
|
|
ok here are some listed by the name of the state that fucks up somehow. lots of iowa http://www.270towin.com/maps/njjxd nh and nevada and iowa http://www.270towin.com/maps/4llxg virginia and iowa http://www.270towin.com/maps/w11nD wisconsin and iowa (trumpist fantasy)
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:57
|
|
|
my bony fealty posted:odds on Nate just hedging his bets so he can claim he was kinda-right this time no matter who wins are good though? I certainly wouldn't want to be known as the guy who underestimated Trump twice. Also, close race narratives probably attract more views.
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 03:57
|
|
|
exquisite tea posted:I'm with the Natedawg on this one. Some people already seem to be writing off this election in defiance of all polling data that shows a very close vote at this moment in time. This is also one day removed from the RNC. I'm sure this time next week we'll have people here extolling "HILLARY'S LEAD IS INSURMOUNTABLE, LOOK AT 538 NOW!"
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 04:02
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 04:02
|
|
|
iospace posted:This is also one day removed from the RNC. I'm sure this time next week we'll have people here extolling "HILLARY'S LEAD IS INSURMOUNTABLE, LOOK AT 538 NOW!" God willing.
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 04:02
|
|
|
Zas posted:ok here are some listed by the name of the state that fucks up somehow. lots of iowa I had a really interesting one with Maine CD-2 but i can't find it
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 04:03
|
|
|
Nate Silver awakens in a dark motel room. Beer cans strewn across the floor glint under the sunlight through the curtains, drawn. He rolls over, digging his phone out from the ashtray on the side table. The date is November 9th, 2016. His head is pounding. Unlocking his phone, he notices he has over 10,000 twitter notifications. Instantly, he vomits onto a pile of empty whiskey bottles and losing scratch-off tickets. Trembling, he checks CNN: "Clinton Wins In Historical, Landslide Vote" Nate sits for a moment, still, as if suspended in a tub of Vaseline. He falls back onto the bed. "Stumped... stumped.... stumped...." he closes his eyes, never to open them.
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 04:06
|
|
|
God help us all https://twitter.com/thehill/status/756679243870920704
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 04:06
|
|
|
iospace posted:This is also one day removed from the RNC. I'm sure this time next week we'll have people here extolling "HILLARY'S LEAD IS INSURMOUNTABLE, LOOK AT 538 NOW!" Trump has gained ground on Clinton well before the conventions began. The problem is that we have a lack of consistent state-level polling this year to give us some perspective on the national picture.
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 04:06
|
|
|
Donald Trump's #1 Issue:
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 04:08
|
|
|
I know I shouldn't be greedy with the way this magical election has been going for me for the past 12 months+ But please God. Please let the election result in a 269-269 electoral tie. Preferably with Trump losing the popular vote.
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 04:09
|
|
|
The ultimate Nothing Matters test will be to see if Trump's near-total lack of a campaign apparatus and turnout machine affects him negatively on election day.
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 04:09
|
|
|
Boosted_C5 posted:I know I shouldn't be greedy with the way this magical election has been going for me for the past 12 months+
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 04:10
|
|
|
WhiskeyJuvenile posted:Donald Trump's #1 Issue: this is def an issue i would love for trump to expound upon, frequently and angrily
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 04:11
|
|
|
Slate Action posted:The ultimate Nothing Matters test will be to see if Trump's near-total lack of a campaign apparatus and turnout machine affects him negatively on election day. just as a reminder he never really significantly underperformed his polling anywhere on the other hand, cruz wildly overperformed in several states where he had a campaign apparatus
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 04:12
|
|
|
Xandu posted:God help us all lol thank god someone competent will hear the state of the world
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 04:13
|
|
|
Joementum posted:Nate's right. Anyone smug about a 4% poll lead is not. What if i just have a fixed, rictus-like grin that looks smug from a distance
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 04:13
|
|
|
Mitt Romney posted:this time he is strictly using poll data to make his conclusions though Yeah, unless state-by-state polling completely goes to poo poo his predictions for the general should be fine. The problem is this election cycle Nate tried to be a pundit and talk about the election outcomes way before there was reliable polling, something he has admitted himself.
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 04:14
|
|
|
And I don't mean by a little bit Bush-Gore style. I'm talking let Hillary run up a national lead of millions of votes, blowing Trump out in places like California and New Mexico, shrinking his lead to razor thin in Texas and Arizona. Let Trump not only win by being selected by the GOP congress with an electoral tie, let him not only win despite losing the popular vote, but let him win Lord in this scenario by getting pushed over the top in a few key states by us EVIL. WHITE. MALES. Oh God, the tears, the hysterics, the shrieking, the cries of RAYSISM, the pure, white-hot, RAGE. I want it to wash over me as Big Don shrugs his shoulders and flashes his poo poo-eating grin to the lamentations of the crybaby social justice crusader masses.
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 04:15
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 22:27 |
|
|
Boosted_C5 posted:I know I shouldn't be greedy with the way this magical election has been going for me for the past 12 months+ make your own it's fun and not that hard here are some of mine http://www.270towin.com/maps/njjxd http://www.270towin.com/maps/4llxg http://www.270towin.com/maps/w11nD
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2016 04:16
|
|