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Seriously there are 15K shares of this outstanding if anyone wants free money: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/3038/Will-Clinton-announce-her-VP-pick-before-the-convention#data
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Jul 23, 2016 01:15
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RNOM finally finished closing.  my G/L. You were good to me, buddy
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Jul 23, 2016 01:40
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Really lame that they closed the neilson market so early without paying out.
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Jul 23, 2016 01:48
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There is a mod post from yesterday saying they are closing out the R-VP markets, is anyone seeing movement on this? I have NOs on 26 people in there but I don't see anything in my transaction history about any of them getting closed yet.
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Jul 23, 2016 02:21
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a cop posted:Is the IRC still going? It moved to Slack. Message G-Hawk if you want to join.
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Jul 23, 2016 03:07
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a cop posted:Really lame that they closed the neilson market so early without paying out. "Should Nielsen not attribute viewership data to the acceptance speech itself, viewership data published for the closest-matching block of time for the networks televising the speech live will be used to resolve this market." Could they be giving Neilsen time to officially declare viewership for the speech itself instead of going with what appears to be the viewership for the entire day? Not that they couldn't have kept trading open, but I wonder if that's their angle.
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Jul 23, 2016 03:57
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i'm leaning toward they just let everyone take off early for the weekend this afternoon
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Jul 23, 2016 04:25
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well between both the VP markets closing and the huge win in the Johnson polling market, I'm suddenly down to <40% invested... I had dumped a chunk into VA and NC general election markets on the R.NO side, and might just let them ride  any relatively near-term markets people are targeting right now? Maybe hold out for next week's DNC markets like viewership
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Jul 23, 2016 04:31
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thethreeman posted:well between both the VP markets closing and the huge win in the Johnson polling market, I'm suddenly down to <40% invested... I had dumped a chunk into VA and NC general election markets on the R.NO side, and might just let them ride Have you considered betting on polls?
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Jul 23, 2016 05:02
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FourLeaf posted:It moved to Slack. Message G-Hawk if you want to join. either send me an email address on irc direct msg or on SA pm and i can an invite for anyone who got left behind
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Jul 23, 2016 05:08
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EngineerSean posted:Have you considered betting on polls? No don't!!
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Jul 23, 2016 05:42
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It's defimitely a real problem that will only become more exacerbated once the general election is paid out. Where's my market on whether PredictIt will be able to handle the mass withdrawal of funds by November 15?
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Jul 23, 2016 07:26
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The strategy is to shift over to more congressional stuff and open regular weekly 'news cycle' hot topic markets. They can actually be pretty lucrative because sometimes they'll be about really dumb loving topics but since people are hyped about it the market will be way out of balance. It's how I made a bunch of money off the Putin.Remain and DPRNUKE
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Jul 23, 2016 07:35
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Necc0 posted:The strategy is to shift over to more congressional stuff and open regular weekly 'news cycle' hot topic markets. They can actually be pretty lucrative because sometimes they'll be about really dumb loving topics but since people are hyped about it the market will be way out of balance. DPRNUKE was so great. It’s what hooked me on the site. I couldn’t stand by and watch those idiots throw their money away. I had to have some for myself. I’ve since been involved in more profitable markets, ones that were volatile for days on end instead of a once‐off, but none will ever be as satisfying as DPRNUKE.
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Jul 23, 2016 12:18
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Necc0 posted:The strategy is to shift over to more congressional stuff and open regular weekly 'news cycle' hot topic markets. They can actually be pretty lucrative because sometimes they'll be about really dumb loving topics but since people are hyped about it the market will be way out of balance. Platystemon posted:DPRNUKE was so great. It’s what hooked me on the site. I couldn’t stand by and watch those idiots throw their money away. I had to have some for myself. How long did you have your money wrapped up in those markets? That's my only worry about stuff like that.
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Jul 23, 2016 14:01
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FourLeaf posted:How long did you have your money wrapped up in those markets? That's my only worry about stuff like that. DPR corrected itself within a week iirc as people realized they'd hosed up.
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Jul 23, 2016 14:35
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EngineerSean posted:Have you considered betting on polls? lol I love big-picture polls, like Johnson or Stein, but the micro-increment ones blow Necc0 posted:The strategy is to shift over to more congressional stuff and open regular weekly 'news cycle' hot topic markets. They can actually be pretty lucrative because sometimes they'll be about really dumb loving topics but since people are hyped about it the market will be way out of balance. yeah this is what I'm foreseeing, and I can live with it. Good excuse to spend more time learning about downticket races
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Jul 23, 2016 18:40
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Much like betting on the wnba might be more profitable than betting on the nba due to sports books lack of knowledge, it definitely doesn't sound as fun to predict local minutia vs the presidential election.
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Jul 23, 2016 20:32
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Can't believe how easy this week's TvC poll was to call, next week will be even easier to call
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Jul 24, 2016 07:17
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EngineerSean posted:Can't believe how easy this week's TvC poll was to call, next week will be even easier to call Nice job, dude. Grats.
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Jul 24, 2016 07:21
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EngineerSean posted:Can't believe how easy this week's TvC poll was to call, next week will be even easier to call Too drunk to check is this via a specific poller or via RCP? I thought she was a lot further ahead than that
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Jul 24, 2016 07:26
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RCP
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Jul 24, 2016 07:52
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RCP currently has her at +2% so your screenshot is just a little weird but I thought she had at least a 4% lead. I guess that was a month ago?
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Jul 24, 2016 08:07
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It is currently h+2.0 but the most likely polls to drop will drop it lower.
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Jul 24, 2016 08:15
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If DWS no longer has a speaking role at the DNC is she still going to be chair?
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Jul 24, 2016 14:21
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Nirvikalpa posted:If DWS no longer has a speaking role at the DNC is she still going to be chair? Yes she's still the chair until after the election, going by current plans.
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Jul 24, 2016 14:40
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Whoops didn't realize how many "I'll sell a few if it swings up a bit" offers I had left open in the DWS market.
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Jul 24, 2016 16:02
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DWS going nuts over the past few hours. YES has dipped below 60c a couple times.
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Jul 24, 2016 18:18
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Lutha Mahtin posted:DWS going nuts over the past few hours. YES has dipped below 60c a couple times. Might have something to do with this http://gawker.com/report-debbie-wasserman-schultz-ousted-from-dnc-1784218119
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Jul 24, 2016 20:54
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OAquinas posted:Might have something to do with this DWS resignation goes into effect at the end of the convention (i.e. in July) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/07/24/dnc-chair-debbie-wasserman-schultz-resigns/ quote:The chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee faced growing pressure to resign in the aftermath of the release of thousands of embarrassing internal email exchanges among Democratic officials. Her resignation takes effect at the end of the Democratic National Convention, which begins Monday. e: though I guess if it doesn't go down exactly as reported then it won't make the July cutoff
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Jul 24, 2016 21:03
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The Joe Man posted:I'm done with PI for awhile but easy money: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/3017/Will-Debbie-Wasserman-Schultz-remain-DNC-chair-through-July Wow what a bad tip
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Jul 24, 2016 21:40
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The Joe Man posted:Wow what a bad tip Nice one, looks like it panned out. I should have held on I guess.
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Jul 24, 2016 21:46
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I'm thinking of getting back in on YES for a small amount in case it doesn't go through until Monday. Any chance this happens? And yeah I never blamed Joe Man for this. I would have made a killing in the end if it wasn't for my stupidity leaving orders open.
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Jul 24, 2016 21:48
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always bet on joeman  I ate a loss on the YES that I bought a couple hours ago, but I was able to buy enough NO at 94c to make it back. Hopefully it runs to 99c quick and I can be done with it.
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Jul 24, 2016 21:50
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I'm not gloating at all but I'm definitely glad i didn't sell at a 90 percent loss. My sell orders at 98 got filled this morning.
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Jul 24, 2016 21:50
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The Joe Man posted:Wow what a bad tip True, was a bad tip.
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Jul 24, 2016 23:23
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Wish I didn't firesell most of them. Ah well, jumped back in early enough to still make 20%. Johnson 8% NO is looking better. Most of the high polls are going to get dropped (they've been weirdly prompt about this) and unless Big Johnson slaps down a 11 Don't bet on polls
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Jul 25, 2016 01:00
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OAquinas posted:Wish I didn't firesell most of them. Ah well, jumped back in early enough to still make 20%. betting against Johnson - in fundraising, polling, appearing in a debate, etc - has been by far my most consistently lucrative strategy on this site wish this site existed when Ron Paul was still running for things
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Jul 25, 2016 01:18
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gently caress yes i come back today and DWS is gone, thats loving beautiful. I didn't get 98 but I sold 800 shares@93. gently caress holding it to 100, that bitch is probably hanging on till aug 1st.
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Jul 25, 2016 02:10
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Do you guys follow any feeds or the like to keep on top of the news? I feel like I'm not reading about these events fast enough. I'm also on the other side of the world from America and a lot of events happen when I'm asleep so I probably can't react in a timely manner at all.
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Jul 25, 2016 03:09
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