CanPol Megathread: Big Changus

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Postess with the Mostest: Apr 4, 2007; Arabian nights
'neath Arabian moons
A fool off his guard
could fall and fall hard
out there on the dunes

Helsing posted:

The problem here is that unexpected events could shift the race in ways that are difficult to predict. A major terrorist attack, an assassination, etc. No electoral model could possibly have predicted that RFK would be murdered just prior to the end of the primary but it happened and the political ramifications of that single event are still felt today.

The conventional picture says Trump will lose, what is puzzling is that people are apparently unaware that the intervening months may change this situation in ways that the model can't predict. People who are claiming to be good at maths are somehow mistaking a low probability event for an impossibility.

Extremely low probability things effectively are impossible in the context of calculating future probability. Math people are lazy dicks, they attach a confidence interval so they can say they'll be right 19 times out of 20 and if something weird happens, hey it was an outlier.

# ? Jul 22, 2016 20:21

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# ? May 14, 2024 07:41

Reince Penis: Nov 15, 2007; by R. Guyovich

CLAM DOWN posted:

3) ketchup

4) Complain about how the beef isn't from Alberta

# ? Jul 22, 2016 20:25

SoggyBobcat: Oct 2, 2013

Helsing posted:

The problem here is that unexpected events could shift the race in ways that are difficult to predict. A major terrorist attack, an assassination, etc. No electoral model could possibly have predicted that RFK would be murdered just prior to the end of the primary but it happened and the political ramifications of that single event are still felt today.

The conventional picture says Trump will lose, what is puzzling is that people are apparently unaware that the intervening months may change this situation in ways that the model can't predict. People who are claiming to be good at maths are somehow mistaking a low probability event for an impossibility.

Well, who the gently caress knows what happens if there is a major assassination, but I don't think a major terrorist attack will move the needle as much as people think. The media has been incensed about :siren:

ISLAMIC TERRORISM :siren:

for a long time now, and there have already been many high profile attacks, including two in the U.S. that killed ~65 people, and I don't think either budged the needle much at all. The polling shows that Trump is only something like +5 over Clinton when it comes to "dealing with terrorism" or whatever, and as much Dems might be cautious with Hillary over her hawkishness, it probably insulates her from this sort of attack. Anyone who was going to be swayed to vote for Trump due to terrorism has probably already decided to vote for him.

# ? Jul 22, 2016 20:52

Hexigrammus: May 22, 2006; Cheech Wizard stories are clean, wholesome, reflective truths that go great with the marijuana munchies and a blow job.

The Butcher posted:

Read: http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/1947202/if-name-hongcouver-blog-racist-what-about-vanchina

Yep, that's a bookmarkin'. I like how this guy's brain is wrinkled.

# ? Jul 22, 2016 20:55

Postess with the Mostest: Apr 4, 2007; Arabian nights
'neath Arabian moons
A fool off his guard
could fall and fall hard
out there on the dunes

Hey, more hate crimes out of London.

quote:

Condemnation is raining down on an Arabic magazine in London after it published a column questioning the Holocaust, the Nazi murder of six million Jews during the Second World War.

But while the London police hate crime unit is investigating, and a national Jewish group urged Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne�s government � an advertiser in the publication � to distance itself from the monthly Al Saraha, its publisher says he was unaware of the facts and apologizes to Jewish people.

�I didn�t mean to reject something that happened historically,� Abdul Haidi Shala, speaking in Arabic translated into English, told The London Free Press on Thursday.

�I was curious to know why Hitler killed Jews during the Holocaust, so I read through his article and I found information,� the publisher said.

�I don�t know. History knows,� he said. �I believe in the correct history. If someone told me the correct history was 10 million or 20 million people died, then I�ll believe it as long as it�s correct history.�

B�nai Brith Canada, a national Jewish human rights organization, complained about the piece in the magazine�s June-July issue, with its chief executive calling the column �despicable� and �hateful.�
...
London police confirmed hate crime investigators are reviewing the piece, whose disputed edition carried a prominent Ramadan message by Premier Kathleen Wynne and members of her governing Liberals, and a smaller ad by hometown MPP Deb Matthews, the province�s deputy premier.

http://www.lfpress.com/2016/07/21/b...ished-in-london

# ? Jul 22, 2016 21:44

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

I don't care

# ? Jul 22, 2016 21:45

infernal machines: Oct 11, 2012; we monitor many frequencies. we listen always. came a voice, out of the babel of tongues, speaking to us. it played us a mighty dub.

Re: POTUS chat

That is not a photoshop.

# ? Jul 22, 2016 21:54

RBC: Nov 23, 2007; IM STILL SPENDING MONEY FROM 1888

nate silver was spectacularly wrong about donald trump winning the nomination and he wrote like ten articles about how he'll never win, it's impossible, etc.. right up to like a week before it became obvious he had it locked up

# ? Jul 22, 2016 22:00

vyelkin: Jan 2, 2011

RBC posted:

nate silver was spectacularly wrong about donald trump winning the nomination and he wrote like ten articles about how he'll never win, it's impossible, etc.. right up to like a week before it became obvious he had it locked up

That's because for once he had to look beyond statistics (since the kind of statistical polling work he does best is basically impossible for a primary campaign compared to a general election) and fell into all the same dumb journalist traps as everyone else. He's much smarter when he's only thinking about numbers and not qualitative things.

# ? Jul 22, 2016 22:13

EvilJoven: Mar 18, 2005; NOBODY,IN THE HISTORY OF EVER, HAS ASKED OR CARED WHAT CANADA THINKS. YOU ARE NOT A COUNTRY. YOUR MONEY HAS THE QUEEN OF ENGLAND ON IT. IF YOU DIG AROUND IN YOUR BACKYARD, NATIVE SKELETONS WOULD EXPLODE OUT OF YOUR LAWN LIKE THE END OF POLTERGEIST. CANADA IS SO POLITE, EH?; Fun Shoe

Ikantski posted:

Hey, more hate crimes out of London.

Argle bargle London is full of racist white trash redn.... nothing to see here.

# ? Jul 22, 2016 22:14

Dreylad: Jun 19, 2001

Helsing posted:

The problem here is that unexpected events could shift the race in ways that are difficult to predict. A major terrorist attack, an assassination, etc. No electoral model could possibly have predicted that RFK would be murdered just prior to the end of the primary but it happened and the political ramifications of that single event are still felt today.

The conventional picture says Trump will lose, what is puzzling is that people are apparently unaware that the intervening months may change this situation in ways that the model can't predict. People who are claiming to be good at maths are somehow mistaking a low probability event for an impossibility.

The real important race are the legislative ones, especially with 2020 census and redistricting coming up anyway. It'll be interesting to see if the Democrats can turn gun control into an election issue.

Dreylad fucked around with this message at 22:42 on Jul 22, 2016

# ? Jul 22, 2016 22:40

Juul-Whip: Mar 10, 2008

# ? Jul 22, 2016 23:50

Postess with the Mostest: Apr 4, 2007; Arabian nights
'neath Arabian moons
A fool off his guard
could fall and fall hard
out there on the dunes

White nerd confirmed

# ? Jul 23, 2016 00:32

Hexigrammus: May 22, 2006; Cheech Wizard stories are clean, wholesome, reflective truths that go great with the marijuana munchies and a blow job.

EvilJoven posted:

Argle bargle London is full of racist white trash redn.... nothing to see here.

It's funny how a branch of my family has always believed they were Welsh. When you start digging it looks like a couple maybe/might/could have been, but most were from slightly west of London and indisputably English. Even the English hate the English.

Not that 50 kms makes much of a difference with all the historic raping and pillaging that's gone on in that area but I guess labels are important.

What I'd like to know is why the cash-strapped Ontario government is running Joyous Ramadan/Happy Christmas/Festive Hanukah ads in foreign magazines? Must be fantastic roi possibilities available on that little venture. Did they feature pictures of Canadian built LAVs crushing enemies of the regime under their wheels?

# ? Jul 23, 2016 01:45

Dallan Invictus: Oct 11, 2007; The thing about words is that meanings can twist just like a snake, and if you want to find snakes, look for them behind words that have changed their meaning.

Hexigrammus posted:

What I'd like to know is why the cash-strapped Ontario government is running Joyous Ramadan/Happy Christmas/Festive Hanukah ads in foreign magazines? Must be fantastic roi possibilities available on that little venture. Did they feature pictures of Canadian built LAVs crushing enemies of the regime under their wheels?

I'm pretty sure the magazine in question is Canadian, just published for a diaspora community in Arabic - so the ads are basically outreach to a local (and more importantly, voting) community.

# ? Jul 23, 2016 01:57

Hexigrammus: May 22, 2006; Cheech Wizard stories are clean, wholesome, reflective truths that go great with the marijuana munchies and a blow job.

Dallan Invictus posted:

I'm pretty sure the magazine in question is Canadian, just published for a diaspora community in Arabic - so the ads are basically outreach to a local (and more importantly, voting) community.

Oh, THAT London.

Skimmed the article the first time and there's not a lot of obvious clues this was from a forgettable small city in Canada and not the real thing. Not much content difference from the Cheltenham Echo, except maybe less complaints about street making GBS threads.

OTOH it's Friday night, I am dumb, and not drunk enough.

# ? Jul 23, 2016 06:04

Meat Recital: Mar 26, 2009; by zen death robot

Did anyone else catch that story about the titan of industry and job creator reselling Trader Joe's product in Vancouver? Now that's all I'm going to think of whenever a politician talks about small business owners. People whose big innovation is reselling crossborder groceries. gently caress you.

# ? Jul 24, 2016 00:26

Constant Hamprince: Oct 24, 2010; by exmarx; College Slice

Meat Recital posted:

Did anyone else catch that story about the titan of industry and job creator reselling Trader Joe's product in Vancouver? Now that's all I'm going to think of whenever a politician talks about small business owners. People whose big innovation is reselling crossborder groceries. gently caress you.

I hope it turns out to be technically illegal or something so I can go into business with a cigarette boat, speeding across Salish Sea in moonless night with a cargo hold full of Cookie Butter.

# ? Jul 24, 2016 12:59

MA-Horus: Dec 3, 2006; I'm sorry, I can't hear you over the sound of how awesome I am.

Speculaas butter is basically crack anyways so...

# ? Jul 24, 2016 13:57

Evis: Feb 28, 2007; Flying Spaghetti Monster

Constant Hamprince posted:

I hope it turns out to be technically illegal or something so I can go into business with a cigarette boat, speeding across Salish Sea in moonless night with a cargo hold full of Cookie Butter.

I believe it already made its way through the courts and was deemed legal.

Edit: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pirate_Joe%27s yep

# ? Jul 24, 2016 17:38

infernal machines: Oct 11, 2012; we monitor many frequencies. we listen always. came a voice, out of the babel of tongues, speaking to us. it played us a mighty dub.

Did I miss this somewhere?

http://www.vice.com/en_ca/read/a-saskatchewan-river-oil-spill-is-about-to-cut-off-another-towns-main-water-supply

Or does no one care, because Saskatchewan?

# ? Jul 24, 2016 20:07

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2016/07/2...=editorial-0716

quote:

It�s Official: Clark�s LNG �Plan� Was a Fantasy
Latest developments in Hawaii should put end to faith in job, prosperity promises.

It seems like only yesterday that British Columbians were being told that the province was on the cusp of LNG riches. In fact, it almost was.

Last October, Finance Minister Mike de Jong predicted: �We are poised to see the final steps taken. Every step of the way, there have been detractors and naysayers and people who have dismissed the opportunities.�

Those final steps hit a speed bump last Friday when the Hawaii Public Utilities Commission nixed NextEra Energy�s proposed $4.3 billion purchase of Hawaiian Electric Industries.

The decision effectively scuttled a 20-year agreement for Fortis to sell LNG to Hawaiian Electric that had been announced eight weeks earlier with all the customary fanfare.

Natural Gas Minister Rich Coleman boasted that the announcement �showcases British Columbia�s capacity to supply clean energy to new markets.�

His statement left a few things out, though. And the devil is in the details.

The deal had a few hurdles to clear. Specifically, this one from Fortis�s news release: �the agreement outlines the conditions to be met... including the approval of the merger of Hawaiian Electric and NextEra Energy Resources.�

Both parties knew that approval was no slam dunk.

Last August, Hawaii Governor David Ige made it clear he opposed LNG-powered electrical generation.

�Any time and money spent on LNG is time and money not spent on renewable energy and that his administration will actively oppose the construction of any future LNG receiving stations,� he said.

In politics, Friday is known as �taking out the trash day,� the choice for problem announcements. It lived up to its name last week.

The news out of Honolulu broke in B.C. at 8 p.m. The merger was kaput.

The export deal � a long shot at best � was pronounced dead this week.

B.C.�s long-promised pot of liquid gold has now passed through pretty well all the spin cycles.

In its 2013 election platform, the BC Liberal party pledged the LNG industry would create $1 trillion in economic activity and a $100-billion Prosperity Fund.

The promise came with a catchy tag line: �It�s no fantasy.�

The party�s campaign referenced the B.C. government�s 2012 Labour Market Outlook, which predicted the LNG industry would create up to 100,000 jobs between 2015 and 2023.

After the election, the Labour Ministry issued a revised Labour Market Outlook report. The four pages on LNG jobs vanished. In a brief section, the report said: �The Province continues working closely with the industry to maintain and update occupational workforce projections for the LNG sector. However, these projections will factor into the Labour Market Outlook only once there is a final investment decision on one or more projects.�

There are still periodic teases.

Premier Christy Clark continued to proclaim that the LNG industry would reduce air pollution in China, clear up smog in Los Angeles and that revenues would fund increased support for people with disabilities.

Naysayers such as the Australia-based Macquarie Group, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) and Bloomberg News were dismissed out of hand.

Despite countless reports the world faces a glut of LNG, the government�s website to this day proclaims that �Global trade in liquefied natural gas doubled between 2000 and 2010 and is expected to increase by another 50 per cent by 2020.�

The Macquarie Group, a giant in global investment banking and finance, suggested earlier this year that solutions to address the LNG oversupply �would be for certain LNG expansions not to happen or for existing capacity to be closed.�

And in its November 2014 World Energy Outlook, the IEA reported that Canadian LNG costs could be among the highest in the world, pegging the export price at between $13 and $14 per MBtu (million British thermal unit).

LNG�s spot price � currently less than $5 per MBtu � is less than half the costs of production for LNG from the province.

Other developments, such as Russia�s 2014 deal to supply China with natural gas and Japan�s restart of its nuclear energy facilities, never seemed to factor into the government�s thinking or dim its public optimism.

B.C. may still see an LNG plant. But as for that $1 trillion in economic activity and $100 billion Prosperity Fund, the only step left is to call time of death.

It turned out to be a fantasy, after all.

There�s an upside for the government. The public never bought the hype in the first place.

According to a 2014 Insights West poll, �only 28 per cent of British Columbians trusted the provincial government when it comes to properly handling decisions about the fledgling liquefied natural gas sector.�

the tyee is a left wing garbage rag so i don't know how true this is. but lol if it is

# ? Jul 24, 2016 22:16

cowofwar: Jul 30, 2002; by Athanatos

LNG was never going to happen in BC.

# ? Jul 24, 2016 23:10

Constant Hamprince: Oct 24, 2010; by exmarx; College Slice

More like Liquified Natural rear end!

# ? Jul 24, 2016 23:25

Hexigrammus: May 22, 2006; Cheech Wizard stories are clean, wholesome, reflective truths that go great with the marijuana munchies and a blow job.

infernal machines posted:

Did I miss this somewhere?

http://www.vice.com/en_ca/read/a-saskatchewan-river-oil-spill-is-about-to-cut-off-another-towns-main-water-supply

Or does no one care, because Saskatchewan?

Strangely quiet on this situation. If I have to re-evaluate my position that tankers are the main risk and not pipelines I'm going to be pissed.

cowofwar posted:

LNG was never going to happen in BC.

Doesn't matter. I was doing some door-knocking yesterday for the B.C. $15/hr minimum wage petition. FAST CATS... FAST CATS... FAST CATS... :suicide:

Also, you young people are a bunch of spoiled wankers wanting everything right now. "I didn't have any of that until I was over 50". Not sure what "that" was exactly: affordable housing, a living wage, human dignity? Hygiene?

gently caress this province.

# ? Jul 24, 2016 23:47

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Don't worry the ndp will fix everything because John Horgan is great because

# ? Jul 25, 2016 00:40

Argas: Jan 13, 2008; SRW Fanatic

Nah let's just vote liberal again guys

# ? Jul 25, 2016 01:59

The Butcher: Apr 20, 2005; Well, at least we tried.; Nap Ghost

namaste faggots posted:

Don't worry the ndp will fix everything because John Horgan is great because

Said nobody ever. NDP advertising dept excluded maybe, but I haven't heard a peep from them either, though I'm not exposed to a lot of trad media and unsubscribed from all the MONEY PLEASE emails years ago.

Everyone under 40 still plugged into politics (and not masturbating furiously about how Clark has helped their skybox condo they bought in the last couple of years appreciate) seems to want Eby at the helm. Horgan is a non-entity.

# ? Jul 25, 2016 02:12

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Argas posted:

Nah let's just vote liberal again guys

or you could treat your vote like it's a valuable commodity and not throw it away to a bunch of retards

stop voting for the sake of ~civic duty~~ retards

# ? Jul 25, 2016 03:16

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

I wish I could hoard votes between elections instead of throwing it away.

# ? Jul 25, 2016 04:19

EvilJoven: Mar 18, 2005; NOBODY,IN THE HISTORY OF EVER, HAS ASKED OR CARED WHAT CANADA THINKS. YOU ARE NOT A COUNTRY. YOUR MONEY HAS THE QUEEN OF ENGLAND ON IT. IF YOU DIG AROUND IN YOUR BACKYARD, NATIVE SKELETONS WOULD EXPLODE OUT OF YOUR LAWN LIKE THE END OF POLTERGEIST. CANADA IS SO POLITE, EH?; Fun Shoe

Cmon now, votes don't work like sick days.

# ? Jul 25, 2016 05:43

DariusLikewise: Oct 4, 2008; You wore that on Halloween?

namaste faggots posted:

look you stupid loving innumerate gender studies majors, trump has no loving chance so shut uppppp

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

i went through this for a whole loving year leading up to 2012 telling people romney had no loving chance thanks to 538. stop giving political pundits and 'journalists' goddamn time of day

You were saying.

# ? Jul 25, 2016 14:31

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

# ? Jul 25, 2016 14:47

Postess with the Mostest: Apr 4, 2007; Arabian nights
'neath Arabian moons
A fool off his guard
could fall and fall hard
out there on the dunes

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/756681961809272832

These DNC leaks are sick, glad to see American Kathleen Wynne might lose.

# ? Jul 25, 2016 14:58

Majuju: Dec 30, 2006; I had a beer with Stephen Miller once and now I like him.

If we're doing this, from an hour ago:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/757558402667188224

(this is the strict 'if it were held today!!!!' prediction and includes the bump from the convention, etc. of course but)

# ? Jul 25, 2016 14:59

velvet milkman: Feb 13, 2012; by R. Guyovich

namaste faggots posted:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Trump exists in a reality far outside of statistics, data, and polls. The doom cult is growing, and soon it will encroach on our feeble Canadian border, and we will know what it means to be Great Again.

# ? Jul 25, 2016 15:01

Reince Penis: Nov 15, 2007; by R. Guyovich

How the gently caress is Nate Silver even still relevant. Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't he gotten every national election wrong since 2008?

# ? Jul 25, 2016 15:31

Risky Bisquick: Jan 18, 2008; PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.; Buglord

So is Brad Wall still pushing energy east given the situation in Prince Albert? Curious minds want to know

# ? Jul 25, 2016 15:34

Excelsiortothemax: Sep 9, 2006

PK loving SUBBAN posted:

How the gently caress is Nate Silver even still relevant. Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't he gotten every national election wrong since 2008?

Lets hope the trend continues. I'd rather not be under American occupation.!

# ? Jul 25, 2016 15:35

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# ? May 14, 2024 07:41

upgunned shitpost: Jan 21, 2015

Like everything political, Silver has the force of intertia and name recognition behind him.

A wet fart that propels you into the spotlight.

# ? Jul 25, 2016 15:39

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