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They were a drop in the bucket compared to the Gio/Hill Wars
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Jul 25, 2016 21:06
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https://twitter.com/RobDemovsky/status/757990291257249793 On the bright side, maybe this will make his ADP more palatable.
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Jul 26, 2016 18:38
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 Keeper Question!Looking to get some opinions on who to keep this year. I'm allowed to keep (2) TWO players. They are available to be kept in whatever round they were drafted in. Here's my best options: (1QB/2RB/3WR/FLEX/TE/K/DEF - Non-ppr standard scoring) LeVeon Bell - 3rd Jordy Nelson - 15th Kelvin Benjamin - 16th CJ Anderson - 18th Josh Gordon - 18th I also sold off a few players last year so I have an extra 4th round pick, two extra 6th round picks, and an extra 11th round pick this year. I'm leaning towards keeping LeVeon and Jordy, but I can probably make a case for LeVeon/CJ, Jordy/Kelvin, Jordy/CJ, Kelvin/CJ. Thoughts? (I am also in talks about trading Kelvin Benjamin for a 6th round pick to a team with poor keeper options. This would give me FOUR! 6th round picks this year  )
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Jul 26, 2016 18:47
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RCarr posted:
This is tough. Do you keep them in that spot in perpetuity? Nelson is good value but I worry about the long term. Keeping Bell seems smart.
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Jul 26, 2016 19:40
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:This is tough. Do you keep them in that spot in perpetuity? Nelson is good value but I worry about the long term. Keeping Bell seems smart. Two year max on keepers, then they have to be released back into the pool. I kept Bell and Anderson last year, so if I keep them again this year, I have to let them go the following season.
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Jul 26, 2016 19:43
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RCarr posted:Two year max on keepers, then they have to be released back into the pool. I kept Bell and Anderson last year, so if I keep them again this year, I have to let them go the following season. I would still keep Bell, unless you have the first overall pick or that suspension goes through. When do you need to decide?
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Jul 26, 2016 19:48
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I would still keep Bell, unless you have the first overall pick or that suspension goes through. When do you need to decide? Around August 20th (don't have an exact date yet). I think Bell and Jordy is my best bet.
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Jul 26, 2016 19:51
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RCarr posted:Around August 20th (don't have an exact date yet). Wait until August 19, but I am inclined to agree.
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Jul 26, 2016 19:53
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Anquan Boldin signed a one year deal with the Lions. Doubt he'll offer anything more than a cheap DFS option or bye week filler but his addition probably derails the Eric Ebron hype train. Too much competition for targets on that team for him to return TE1 value at this point.
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Jul 26, 2016 20:14
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The Ebron Hype Train is really fueled by the fact that without Johnson, he's probably their best RZ target and is potentially in line for a Kyle Rudolph 10+ TD and nothing else season that gets him drafted for the next 5 years. I'm not sure if Boldin changes that
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Jul 26, 2016 20:23
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Ebron isn't their best red zone target though. He was fourth on the team in red zone target share last year. That ain't changing with Marvin Jones and Boldin added to the mix. Boldin hurts his value cause Ebron runs too many routes from the slot. Now they've got Boldin and TJ Jones (who has been getting hype from Lions people prior to this) as slot guys. Ebron won't see the volume he needs.
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Jul 26, 2016 20:29
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Has Ebron already replaced Kyle Rudolph as the guy who gets overhyped and overdrafted every year because ~~~ red zone targets ~~~ (Rudolph's career-high TDs is 9. He's had 3, 3, 2 and 5 in his other years.)
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Jul 26, 2016 21:34
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Except Eric Ebron has the draft pedigree and KYLE RUDOLPH NEVER STOPPED TOOT TOOT ALL ABOARD http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/07/19/bridgewater-rudolph-looking-to-build-on-strong-15-finish/
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Jul 26, 2016 21:36
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Russell Wilson didn't throw it appreciably more in the second half compared to the first (29.25 attempts per game to 31.125). The difference was the red zone; he had 3 of 9 TDs in the red zone in the first half; 14 of 25(?!) in the second half. Do with this what you will.
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Jul 27, 2016 04:43
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Spoeank posted:Russell Wilson didn't throw it appreciably more in the second half compared to the first (29.25 attempts per game to 31.125). Thought about trying to reply on twitter, but figured here was better. What's the cause of the RZ change? Clearly way more opportunities- which I think is partly because they were pretty rear end in the first half of the year, but was it a function of Lynch being scaled back and more passes being called in the red zone maybe? Who were his targets on those 34 attempts?
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Jul 27, 2016 05:21
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Here's the breakdown of Red Zone Stats: First Half:  Second Half:  A ton more carries in the red zone in the second half by not-Russell Wilson. Mostly to Rawls. When Rawls broke down they didn't trust other backs. Here's within the ten: First Half:  Second Half:  27:27 rush:pass ratio in the first half in the red zone 33:40 rush:pass ratio in the second half in the red zone 13:13 rush:pass ratio in the first half within the ten 14:22 rush: pass ratio in the second half within the ten The Seahawks seemingly did their normal thing until they hit the ten. They got more opportunity in the second half likely because Lynch was breaking down and Rawls was a shot in the arm, but leaning on RW3 within the ten seemed to get him a good boost. Edit: gently caress, I misread it. Looks like RW3 had an unsustainable 50% TD percentage within the ten Spoeank fucked around with this message at 05:59 on Jul 27, 2016 |
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Jul 27, 2016 05:50
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There was something else that changed for Wilson last year and I didn't even realize it until I was listening to Evan Silva and Josh Norris do their NFC rundown the other week. Definitely escaped my attention during early 2015 but I perked up when I heard it on the podcast. When they flipped C Max Unger to New Orleans for Graham, they lost a solid veteran, but they also lost the dude who had the job of calling out protection schemes for the offensive line. So losing that is a real void. When week one rolls around and they have a first year player in Drew Nowak at center, it became Russell Wilson's responsibility to call out protection schemes. From September 2015 posted:"I just think that Max was a guy that was so experienced, he’d just get up there, call something right away, and then we’d change it from there," Wilson said. "This year, just kind of going into having so many different centers throughout training camp and all that, and Drew’s first experience, a lot of the calls are on me from the get-go."
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Jul 27, 2016 06:11
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That's well and good but nothing appreciably changed between the first and second half in terms of breakdown stats... His completion percentage went down 1.33%, his yards per attempt went up just under 0.6 yards per attempt, which helps to even out the passing offense. That doesn't speak much to him being more comfortable with protections and such (though that makes me wish I had audible data). Rawls was a better back than Marshawn last year, so it seems as though he got them to the goal line but wasn't able to convert at a high rate, and they turned to Wilson who tossed seven touchdowns on fourteen attempts within the ten, which is ridiculous. That might be a classic Evan Silva out-thinking himself thing.
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Jul 27, 2016 06:24
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Your own numbers show he threw it 27 times in the red zone in the first half, 33 times in the second half. 6 extra attempts doesn't account for the difference in his numbers. His getting a shitload better did as his completion percentage jumped nearly 20% and he had a 14:0 TD:INT ratio. You're not seeing a player becoming more comfortable at playing the latest Madden here? 
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Jul 27, 2016 06:48
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Yes it was his unsustainable play inside the ten which led to inflated production. I said that. When you are trying to figure out going from a run heavy production to pass heavy, rolling in runs from over 10 yards out isn't helpful which is why I adjusted to split to between 1 and 10 yards. If Russ was just hitting a groove wouldn't it have showed in his YPA and comp%? That's why I want audible data to see how much of Rawls being infinitely better than Lynch had to do with Russ adjusting at the LOS, which would support your point. Also his data there doesn't match PFR, which is what I used. That's weird and I don't like it!
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Jul 27, 2016 07:10
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So do we take Rawls or do we not take Rawls
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Jul 27, 2016 08:14
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Spoeank posted:Yes it was his unsustainable play inside the ten which led to inflated production. Good takeaway. Makes me more comfortable about what to expect from the receivers: it isn't that Seattle will or won't stay as pass heavy as the 2nd half, because they'll keep doing what they were doing all year, but Wilson certainly won't maintain that TD rate.
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Jul 27, 2016 12:23
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Tiptoes posted:There was something else that changed for Wilson last year and I didn't even realize it until I was listening to Evan Silva and Josh Norris do their NFC rundown the other week. Definitely escaped my attention during early 2015 but I perked up when I heard it on the podcast. Which podcast was that?
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Jul 27, 2016 12:28
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Is trading AB for Nuk/Lamar Miller in a half PPR dynasty league a stupid trade to try and make? My team (1QB/2WR/2RB/1TE/1WR-TE-Flex/1RB-WR-TE-Flex) is below, you can see I'm very bad at RB. QBs: Palmer, Taylor, Stafford WRs: AB, OBJ, Hurns, Wright, Wheaton, Smelter RBs: CJA, Forsett, Foster, Zach Zenner TEs: Eifert, Green, Gates, Graham, Fleener
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Jul 27, 2016 16:48
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I would do that in your case since you still have two top five dynasty WR and a good RB to go with them, which you need
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Jul 27, 2016 16:52
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weas posted:Is trading AB for Nuk/Lamar Miller in a half PPR dynasty league a stupid trade to try and make? My team (1QB/2WR/2RB/1TE/1WR-TE-Flex/1RB-WR-TE-Flex) is below, you can see I'm very bad at RB. Hopkins and Brown are basically even, with preference going to either age/time left at a high level or established production in the short term. They're both top 4 or 5 start up picks. Regardless of team, I'd easily give up Brown for Hopkins and Miller, who is a top 5 RB and top 20-25 start up pick in his own right. I doubt the Hopkins/Miller own goes for the swap you suggest, but even if you have to add like a future 1st to Brown, you'd still easily win.
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Jul 27, 2016 16:58
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weas posted:Is trading AB for Nuk/Lamar Miller in a half PPR dynasty league a stupid trade to try and make? My team (1QB/2WR/2RB/1TE/1WR-TE-Flex/1RB-WR-TE-Flex) is below, you can see I'm very bad at RB. Unless this is like a 10 man league I don't think those rbs are bad at all. Take a few rbs in your rookie draft and play the waiver wire for some depth. The rest of the team is good enough to win with average rb production.
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Jul 27, 2016 17:07
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Hey beer are we gonna kick off another slow draft?
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Jul 27, 2016 21:40
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Finished my champions' poo poo talk video for the league of my drinking/gaming clan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zg7qw1PtR18
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Jul 27, 2016 23:41
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Fitzmagic is a Jet.
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Jul 28, 2016 00:07
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Fitzmagic is a Jet. Hell yeah
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Jul 28, 2016 00:11
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Leperflesh posted:Hey beer are we gonna kick off another slow draft? If we do I want to make it more like a regular draft. So maybe 16 rounds and no PK or DST.
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Jul 28, 2016 00:15
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I have the 2nd pick in a dynasty start up draft in a couple weeks. Am I crazy for thinking about taking Luck in the 3rd? I'll be getting OBJ with my first pick (guy with the #1 already said he's taking AB) and probably best WR available with the 2nd. My 3rd will be at the top of the round and I know I'll be over drafting Luck, but I'm pretty worried that all the top tier QBs are going to be gone by the time it snakes back to me in the 4th. If I do go Luck I get a probable top tier QB for a long time, but it is an overdraft and I'll miss out on a WR/RB. If I don't take Luck I will probably have to settle for a low tier QB later in the draft. Probably the best answer is 'trade back to the middle/end of the round' if I can pull it off.
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Jul 28, 2016 00:38
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:I have the 2nd pick in a dynasty start up draft in a couple weeks. Am I crazy for thinking about taking Luck in the 3rd? I'll be getting OBJ with my first pick (guy with the #1 already said he's taking AB) and probably best WR available with the 2nd. My 3rd will be at the top of the round and I know I'll be over drafting Luck, but I'm pretty worried that all the top tier QBs are going to be gone by the time it snakes back to me in the 4th. That's about where Luck goes (early 30s), so it's not a reach.
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Jul 28, 2016 00:42
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:That's about where Luck goes (early 30s), so it's not a reach. My ADP data for dynasties had him going pretty consistently in the mid 40s. I also should have mentioned, I don't care that much about it specifically being Luck, I'd be happy with Rogers/Newton too. There's a chance Rogers would fall to me in the 4th based on age...
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Jul 28, 2016 00:49
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:If we do I want to make it more like a regular draft. So maybe 16 rounds and no PK or DST. 14 rounds, 2 K, 2 DST. Let chaos reign.
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Jul 28, 2016 01:09
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14 isn't enough, in a best ball format with bye weeks. I mean, you can do it, but it means everyone who has a player get randomly injured early in the season is definitely screwed, and that's just a pure game of chance. I'd vote for definitely dropping kickers. Actually I'd love to do an IDP slow draft, if we don't like D/STs... maybe 2LB 1DB 1DL 1DFLEX? 28 rounds?
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Jul 28, 2016 01:23
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Leperflesh posted:14 isn't enough, in a best ball format with bye weeks. I mean, you can do it, but it means everyone who has a player get randomly injured early in the season is definitely screwed, and that's just a pure game of chance. Unless there's some standard IDP scoring I am not aware of, I don't really see the point in mocking IDPs along with offense. My 1 pt per tackle, 2 pt per sack/int/etc league will be completely unlike my 2 pt per tackle, 6 pt per sack/int/etc, 3 pt per pass defensed league, and a 1/1/1 starting players league will lead to a pretty different draft than my 2/2/2/4 dflex league, ya know? Better to do an IDP only mock, I think, but even that isn't especially helpful. Unless you're just bored and want to have fun, in which case IDP is definitely the way to go 
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Jul 28, 2016 01:43
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Leperflesh posted:14 isn't enough, in a best ball format with bye weeks. I mean, you can do it, but it means everyone who has a player get randomly injured early in the season is definitely screwed, and that's just a pure game of chance. I was being a turd, but even without DST you probably still want... 18?
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Jul 28, 2016 01:51
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| # ? May 11, 2024 23:07 |
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RVProfootballer posted:Unless there's some standard IDP scoring I am not aware of, I don't really see the point in mocking IDPs along with offense. My 1 pt per tackle, 2 pt per sack/int/etc league will be completely unlike my 2 pt per tackle, 6 pt per sack/int/etc, 3 pt per pass defensed league, and a 1/1/1 starting players league will lead to a pretty different draft than my 2/2/2/4 dflex league, ya know? Better to do an IDP only mock, I think, but even that isn't especially helpful. We're not mock drafting. This is a slow draft for MFL10 fantasy.
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Jul 28, 2016 01:53
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