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Yup to all above
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Jul 24, 2016 01:31
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blowfish posted:Talking about it all serious doesn't fix it faster than joking about it. Ha ha "fix" ha ha
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Jul 24, 2016 01:55
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Here's an actual piece of good news - Apparantly China's coal peak is a real thing rather than a blip They may be playing up just how good the news is, though, especially since all this means is that their emissions are starting to drop. quote:The economists argue in a new paper on Monday that this can now be seen as permanent trend, not a blip, due to major shifts in the Chinese economy and a crackdown on pollution.
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Jul 25, 2016 19:11
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http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-chemists-turn-pollution-into-gold/quote:And even though there is not enough demand for products to consume a large share of carbon dioxide emissions, she says that given the environmental consequences of continuing to dig up fossil fuels to feed the petrochemical industry, it’s worth trying to use carbon dioxide instead. “We need a new way of doing chemistry.”
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Jul 26, 2016 18:54
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In terms of a "fix" though, if a legitimate plague broke out that just killed off half or 2/3rds of Earth's population, would that have a large enough effect to slow things down and keep Earth livable for the species? I'm... asking for a friend. Edit: vv You're only giving the human race 100 years? drat that's dire. davebo fucked around with this message at 20:22 on Jul 26, 2016 |
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Jul 26, 2016 20:05
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Earth will be livable even if we do absolutely nothing for the next century.
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Jul 26, 2016 20:14
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computer parts posted:Earth will be livable even if we do absolutely nothing for the next century. Parts of it.
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Jul 26, 2016 20:15
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CommieGIR posted:Parts of it. Yeah, you dummies. Did you really think it was going to turn into Venus? The Middle East, by the looks of it, will be unlivable, the coastal areas will probably get screwed, and the response to instability where most people live globally (the coastal areas) will likely lead to regional and/or global conflict, causing knock-on effects. But the Earth isn't going to be rendered uninhabitable. Where do you people get these ideas?
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Jul 26, 2016 20:54
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The Earth will be perfectly habitable, just by a lot fewer people and at a much, much lower standard of living.
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Jul 26, 2016 21:05
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There was a paper a bit ago about how an abrupt 6C increase could cause plankton to stop producing oxygen, if I remember right. Aside from that, there's a lot we're still discovering about how our climate works and warming tends to be a self-reinforcing cycle. In Earth's past stuff like bacteria massively shaped the climate - if we turn the seas to acidic algae, I have no idea what else that could affect, but I'd rather not find out. I'm obviously not an expert but it seems to be a case of better safe than sorry. What is making me bummed right now is for all you want to downplay what's happening, we're just seeing the start of migration out of the Middle East, for example. Saying it will be 'unlivable' is one thing, but what is human history going to look like when that happens? The rise of right-wing parties, increases in violence, terrorism, and chaos - we're seeing too much of this already and it's only going to get worse. And right-wing parties generally aren't the most gung-ho about combating climate change, which further reduces the odds of a good result. It won't be the climate alone that does us in - we'll be driven mad and destroy each other first.
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Jul 26, 2016 21:08
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Mozi posted:What is making me bummed right now is for all you want to downplay what's happening, we're just seeing the start of migration out of the Middle East, for example. Saying it will be 'unlivable' is one thing, but what is human history going to look like when that happens? The rise of right-wing parties, increases in violence, terrorism, and chaos - we're seeing too much of this already and it's only going to get worse. And right-wing parties generally aren't the most gung-ho about combating climate change, which further reduces the odds of a good result. Calm down, Johnny Doom'n'gloom. What's going on in the Middle East right now is peanuts compared to the ruin European colonists brought to the Americas and Africa back in the day. It's bad, but not unprecedented or unparalleled bad.
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Jul 26, 2016 21:36
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Curvature of Earth posted:Calm down, Johnny Doom'n'gloom. What's going on in the Middle East right now is peanuts compared to the ruin European colonists brought to the Americas and Africa back in the day. It's bad, but not unprecedented or unparalleled bad. ^ I love when this line of thinking is proffered as some kind of precedent or bar for what is regardless an unacceptable human situation.
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Jul 26, 2016 21:42
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It is not far off from western industrialization : historic spike in co2 emissions :: 3rd world industrialization : present spike in co2 emissions Yes, unfair things happened in the past. Still gently caress off with the present situation.
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Jul 26, 2016 21:45
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Potato Salad posted:modern middle east : christian crusades :: north america / Africa : western colonialism The point was to counter Mozi's line of thinking that specifically what's happening in the Middle East is a harbinger of what's to come. There's taking an unflinching look at how bad things are probably going to get (really loving bad), and then there's the teleological bullshit of reading everything like lines from the Book of Revelation. Potato Salad posted:It is not far off from western industrialization : historic spike in co2 emissions :: 3rd world industrialization : present spike in co2 emissions I never compared mass breakdowns in human society to CO2 levels, that's totally on you.
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Jul 26, 2016 22:54
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Our capacity to inflict permanent harm on ourselves and our planet is vastly greater than before. I'm not a pessimist by nature, honest.
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Jul 26, 2016 23:00
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Mozi posted:Our capacity to inflict permanent harm on ourselves and our planet is vastly greater than before. I was originally going to joke that you forgot to mention nuclear weapons earlier, but even I find that thought too sobering.
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Jul 26, 2016 23:11
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davebo posted:In terms of a "fix" though, if a legitimate plague broke out that just killed off half or 2/3rds of Earth's population, would that have a large enough effect to slow things down and keep Earth livable for the species? I'm... asking for a friend. Indulging that line of thinking: What disease could possibly accomplish this? Even antibiotic-resistant strains of bacteria couldn't cause that kind of die-off. You're talking bubonic plague levels of casualties, and those were under some very specific circumstances that aren't coming back.
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Jul 26, 2016 23:16
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quote:Ocean acidification could have a major impact on the reproductive behaviour of fish living in affected waters, a new study shows.
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Jul 27, 2016 00:41
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davebo posted:In terms of a "fix" though, if a legitimate plague broke out that just killed off half or 2/3rds of Earth's population, would that have a large enough effect to slow things down and keep Earth livable for the species? I'm... asking for a friend. You should read Weismans "The World Without Us and especially note the section discussing effects on the nuclear power system if such a catastrophic event were to occur. It's only self-regulating for so long, after all.
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Jul 27, 2016 03:56
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Curvature of Earth posted:The point was to counter Mozi's line of thinking that specifically what's happening in the Middle East is a harbinger of what's to come. I mean, it's going to keep getting hotter, and Sami the Syrian is going to continue to feel pressure from drought, heat, and other effects of climate change. This likely affects the stability of a region, and I think those who see the Middle East as a politically unstable area, myself included, don't see anthropogenic climate change as a positive factor. Further, I see it as something that is going to drive trouble. With respect to society breaking down with anthropogenic climate change, I'll go ahead and affirm the suggestion that "that's on me:" CO2 levels - lets add methane from defrosting permafrost - are going to change the world. Societies are going to fall apart and restructure. I can shoot for a low bar here and assume flooding coastal cities counts as a change in society. Are we debating whether agc is real, or just that it does anything more real than increase the numbers on the greenscreen behind the guy on the morning weather report?
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Jul 27, 2016 04:08
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Some more doom and gloom, yay! So the glaciers and snows in the Himalayas feed many of the very major rivers in India and China, upon which hundreds of millions of people depend. When those glaciers melt and those rivers are no longer fed by the summer melt? I am orders of magnitude much more concerned about this than uncomfortable/intolerable temperatures in the middle east.
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Jul 27, 2016 04:38
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Potato Salad posted:CO2 levels - lets add methane from defrosting permafrost - are going to change the world. Societies are going to fall apart and restructure. I can shoot for a low bar here and assume flooding coastal cities counts as a change in society. Don't forget oceanic methane clathrates: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane_clathrate quote:This estimate, corresponding to 500-2500 gigatonnes carbon (Gt C), is smaller than the 5000 Gt C estimated for all other geo-organic fuel reserves but substantially larger than the ~230 Gt C estimated for other natural gas sources. The permafrost reservoir has been estimated at about 400 Gt C in the Arctic, but no estimates have been made of possible Antarctic reservoirs. These are large amounts. In comparison, the total carbon in the atmosphere is around 800 gigatons.
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Jul 27, 2016 05:31
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Rime posted:60 years after the wright brothers, we had the A-12 Blackbird. We're coming up on 49 years since Apollo 11 and we're...desperately reverse engineering the Saturn V engines because our lifting capacity is trash. The only reliable manned transport is hitching rides on Soyuz rockets out of a decrepit and half-abandoned facility in Kazakhstan. We have one crazy millionaire doing research on reusable rocketry. The collective The lack in advances in lift capacity is simple to explain to due a) a shift in focus for space missions, b) little commercial and military gain in going to space (in a military sense, going beyond current capacities). The latter has been changing as of late, already resulting in some neat new advances. What you said is almost the same as saying that not much has changed about cars the last 50 years because they still use 4 wheels to move around. Colonizing other planets is more and more deemed unrealistic and relegated to the realms of sci-fi by many scientists. A space station is a closed and controlled environment that is far more safe to live on than any planet (including Earth itself). At most you'd see mining colonies on other planets, heavily automated with little to no human presence. No need to adjust to gravity, terraform (or adapt to) the environment, adapt to extra-terrestrial lifeforms, ect.... . The biggest hurdles at the moment are: a) getting the material in space without bankrupting the planet, and b)better (cheaper) radiation shielding. The future of space colonization is probably very dull, boring and without planet colonization. Batham fucked around with this message at 13:02 on Jul 27, 2016 |
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Jul 27, 2016 11:43
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Um, lift capacity has been limited by the logarithmic term of the rocket equation. There is no getting around elementary mechanics in a rocket. Something other than "bring your reaction mass with you" is needed for colonization to take place in such a way that Joe Everyman can reasonably save up to move his family off planet.
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Jul 27, 2016 13:14
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Most we will see without an elevator is automated industry -- which actually is exactly what you suggest, I think.
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Jul 27, 2016 13:15
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Nice piece of fish posted:Indulging that line of thinking: What disease could possibly accomplish this? Even antibiotic-resistant strains of bacteria couldn't cause that kind of die-off. You're talking bubonic plague levels of casualties, and those were under some very specific circumstances that aren't coming back. there's a british show called Utopia where the attempt to combat climate change is achieved by sterilising most of the human race through food additives. I guess we could weaponise Zika?
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Jul 27, 2016 13:32
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And how would you amend the current situation? This mass sterilization or extermination of mankind seems like some kind of short sighted fetish that won't actually solve the current situation apart from (maybe?) slowing it down.
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Jul 27, 2016 13:39
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Spangly A posted:there's a british show called Utopia where the attempt to combat climate change is achieved by sterilising most of the human race through food additives. Population control is not a solution for the urgent problems of climate change and environmental degradation. The world average death rate is about 0.8% per year, so that's approximately the upper limit that a worldwide zero birth rate would have in reducing carbon emissions. Population control is an element of a solution for long term problems, provided that appropriate policies are enforced, assuming that a society exists that has the capacity to control its population and enforce environmental policies after the near-mid term catastrophe that approaches.
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Jul 27, 2016 14:01
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Hi, I've come to this thread after being spooked by an article that's making the rounds on twitter. What I would like to know if how to get involved. I've read the OP (which was excellent, thank you), and it is clear that there are many people trying to do something. But who are they, and where can I find them? And how can I join in?
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Jul 27, 2016 16:07
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Hand Knit posted:Hi, I've come to this thread after being spooked by an article that's making the rounds on twitter. Absolutely, you can be a great help in stopping climate change. You have a time machine, right?
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Jul 27, 2016 16:34
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TildeATH posted:Absolutely, you can be a great help in stopping climate change. You have a time machine, right? This sort of response is counterproductive. Just because our options are "bad" and "worse" isn't a justification for picking "worse" through inaction. Hand Knit posted:Hi, I've come to this thread after being spooked by an article that's making the rounds on twitter. Probably most effective would be to engage with a local activism group in your community. Volunteer to help educate, speak at local meetings and organize around the local political issues that are climate related and impacted. Sure, this won't solve the climate, but it is the most effective way for individuals to sway policy. All politics is local.
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Jul 27, 2016 16:48
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Trabisnikof posted:This sort of response is counterproductive. Just because our options are "bad" and "worse" isn't a justification for picking "worse" through inaction. And talk about it with your friends and family. I know it's kind of a downer sometimes, and definitely don't make it a point of regular conversations, but you should try discussing it with other people. Word of mouth is still a powerful thing outside of social media.
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Jul 27, 2016 17:33
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TildeATH posted:Absolutely, you can be a great help in stopping climate change. You have a time machine, right? I know we're already locked into something horrible like a 2+ degree increase from whatever baseline we use, but I would like to try and minimize the increase beyond that and also help with coping strategies. Trabisnikof posted:Probably most effective would be to engage with a local activism group in your community. Volunteer to help educate, speak at local meetings and organize around the local political issues that are climate related and impacted. Thanks. Given that I'm a humanities PhD with minimal scientific aptitude, is there any task in particular I should seek out?
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Jul 27, 2016 17:35
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Hand Knit posted:I know we're already locked into something horrible like a 2+ degree increase from whatever baseline we use, but I would like to try and minimize the increase beyond that and also help with coping strategies. Probably if you find teaching enjoyable then working on educating people about climate change would be a way to multiply your impact. Don't worry about a lack of science education, everything you need to know can be taught to a politician, so you can learn it if they can. Or alternatively if there are local or personally meaningful project/place/lifestyle that will be impacted by climate change, those can be powerful focuses for action. So even if you're "just" advocating for climate change by giving public comments to protect a wetland or culturally sensitive plant under climate threat, someone has to do it! And that's how the culture of climate changes at the local level. Landscapes, livelihoods and culture will be transformed by climate change. The humanities can be a powerful tool in helping us understand this unimaginable change we are facing. Don't discount what you bring to the table!
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Jul 27, 2016 17:44
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Thank you!
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Jul 27, 2016 18:04
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Hand Knit posted:Thanks. Given that I'm a humanities PhD with minimal scientific aptitude, is there any task in particular I should seek out? Look into the various Environmental History and Environmental Humanities research out there that explores the effect of Ecological Degradation and Climate Change on culture and society and integrate that into the traditional grand narratives that you explain to people at cocktail parties and teach to kids in gc courses. Did you know the environmental degradation aspect of slavery in the American South? Read "The Roots of Southern Populism" Did you know that Robin Hood is rooted in harsh realities of environmental change? Or the collapse of various cultures and states as a result of climate change (albeit non-anthropogenic)? While Diamond's "Collapse" is approachable, I prefer the three books by Sing Chew. If people knew the frequency and manner of environmental pressure on human society over time maybe it wouldn't have been so hard for them to think we could have affected the climate system and how it might come back to bite us on the collective rear end.
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Jul 27, 2016 18:20
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BattleMoose posted:Some more doom and gloom, yay! Since I have nothing better to do in this thread, why don't I crunch some numbers? Now, let's start with an impossible-case scenario: rain ceases to exist in India and there are no more glaciers in the Himalayas. It becomes literally the driest place on Earth. I don't think this is geographically possible, but let's go with it. The doom-and-gloom crowd in this thread probably think it's going happen anyway. How much would it cost to meet the total water needs of the soon-to-be-most-populous nation on the planet with desalination plants? Well, the largest desalination plant in the United States is the Carlsbad plant. It had a total project cost—including its associated infrastructure—of $1 billion, and it produces 190 million liters of potable water a day (or 69 million cubic meters per year, if you prefer to count that way). According to the UN, total per capita water withdrawal in India is 605 m^3. Let's bump that up to 1,000 cubic meters because we're talking doom-and-gloom here. The current population of India is about 1.3 billion, so that works out to 1.3 trillion cubic meters of water per year. In other words, it'd take almost 19,000 Carlsbad-scale desalination plants to supply current India, at a cost of about $19 trillion. Throw in another trillion for the extensive pipeline network needed to move that water where it's needed. (I'm using the U.S. national highway system as a baseline for "huge government-built network of infrastructure" here; it cost half a trillion for 47,000 miles of highway.) So all in all, we're looking at a ballpark figure of $20 trillion. This is just the up-front standalone costs and does not account for maintenance costs or the environmental costs from pouring that much supersalinated water into India's coastal waters. Hey, it's not that bad. That's only $14,000 per person! A mere order of magnitude higher than their per capita GDP! 
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Jul 27, 2016 19:23
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Curvature of Earth posted:Since I have nothing better to do in this thread, why don't I crunch some numbers? I'm sure that was fun to calculate, but it's entirely meaningless. If the cost of importing water and any other essential substance to a location becomes greater than the productivity of that place, then people will leave or die. The 600m^3 of water used per person is higher than necessary largely due to inefficient farming methods, so this number could easily be slashed by education and/or mandate, which is not to say that a water disaster is not approaching in India, with the atrocious state of their aquifers.
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Jul 27, 2016 19:43
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One thing that just disturbs me, (I also read some of the more alarmist articles that all the sudden started trending in the last week or so about permafrost methane) and the fact that I thought that we actually while not where we need to be we're (Humans) finally getting a handle on carbon emissions and actually working towards reductions. While not exactly perfect I thought I was hearing promising news that while there will probably be a way to cap the climate change problems at the projected 2 degree increase. However this year were treading dangerously close to that line and I was up all night looking through some of the reports linked here and elsewhere, news stories etc. and feel like that two degree increase might be too optimistic and we might have triggered a runaway warming event that might push the temperature shift to the point where even I as a recent college grad who is about to get a decent paying white collar job that would push Earth to the brink of uninhabitability baring massive social shifts. One thing I noticed is alot of people who were formerly climate change deniers or just passive seem to have come to terms with it happening and they seem to have pretty much split into "Well it won't be that bad its not like were in the Middle East or the Southwest USA". Or just accept were doomed, but its okay because there is nothing we can do or its all in gods plan for humanity. The Philippines Presidents reaction of "gently caress You West" is understandable, he is legitimately crazy however his sentiment is understandable. We already reaped all the benefits of industrialization and now it appears to alot that we want to lock the world order in place. We can't allow for more people to live lifestyles like in the West, but alot of people aren't willing to make sacrifices and alot of rhetoric at times online just devolves as what was brought up earlier "Well we could just seal the borders let the poor die of starvation if they try to flee to the West kill them all". Even if in the USA I am on the "winning" side of the equation that option just sounds horrific and the environment in huge swathes of the country and world will be destroyed too with alot of internal displacement. The lovely thing about this apocalypse compared to Nuclear War, is that in that scenario almost everything is under human control with the climate we only have the ability to influence part of it and even then at times we know we are affecting it, but it still isn't clear yet if we have set destructive forces into motion we can't hope to even marginally contain. Likewise this is a faceless enemy in lovely apocalypse movies we can fight aliens and monsters in a tangible way even if it's futile. With climate change actions to halt it seem so abstract and hard to measure which makes alot of people who don't want to see the world burn just give up. I still feel proud a little bit in 6th grade when my School District banned an Inconvenient Truth from the classroom because "It offended people's religious beliefs of some parents who felt that it contradicted the bible". I went in front of the School Board to try to get it repealed spoke in front of a room of people who didn't want to see facts. The ban wasn't overturned and the school district didn't teach climate about change at least when I was there and this is i one of the more "environmentalist" regions in the USA in the Greater Seattle Area. Now alot of those guys and girls are in their twenties and most have fallen into the "It won't be bad or we are doomed" camps. I also did get on local news and say that the school board member leading the charge on the ban was a moron, that probably didn't help but I was like 12. Jack2142 fucked around with this message at 23:48 on Jul 27, 2016 |
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Jul 27, 2016 19:44
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Jack2142 posted:I also did get on local news and say that the school board member leading the charge on the ban was a moron, that probably didn't help but I was like 12. That's cool that this happened to you last year but since then things have gotten even worse, Billy.
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Jul 27, 2016 20:38
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