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Metapod
Mar 18, 2012
Yeah give wake forest some teams to beat up on

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C. Everett Koop
Aug 18, 2008
My scenario:

-Big 12 doesn't expand, or maybe expands, potentially expands. However, the TV networks want an extension of the Grant of Rights without paying any more money, which the power players in the conference don't want. Whether they're 10/12/14 teams, the Big 12 keeps trucking along but the feeling that the end is near remains.

-Big 12 Grant of Rights ends in 2024, Oklahoma leaves for the SEC. Everyone starts whacking the panic button, but the SEC doesn't add anyone else because they're hoping for Texas

-Big Ten adds AAU member Kansas, which adds the second best available brand (Kansas basketball) to it's portfolio. However, they don't add anyone else because they're also hoping for Texas

-Texas is talking to everyone, but they refuse to give up the Longhorn Network, which ends up being a dealbreaker for the Big 10/Pac-12/SEC. However...

-Texas goes to the ACC in everything but football, of which they become an independent. Effectively, they get the Notre Dame deal, which includes rights to Texas football home games that they can either sell or keep for the Longhorn Network, and the ACC/ESPN have first right of refusal if it comes to buying out the LHN, as well as a sharing of content between the two. ACC is now a 16-team basketball conference, 14-team football conference with Notre Dame/Texas playing five games a year against ACC foes and having access to the ACC's bowl package.

-SEC adds Oklahoma State, the biggest available school. Baylor is still down in the basement and TCU isn't seen as necessary for the Dallas-Ft. Worth market. It kinda breaks the handshake agreement that the SEC won't add a school from a state with a pre-existing member, but Oklahoma allows it to happen. Instead of divisions the SEC splits into four pods: Oklahoma/Oklahoma State/Texas A&M/Arkansas, Missouri/LSU/Mississippi State/Ole Miss, Alabama/Auburn/Florida/Georgia, Tennessee/Kentucky/Vanderbilt/South Carolina.

-Big Ten adds TCU, for said Dallas-Ft. Worth TV market. There's some grumbling about TCU not being up to the conference's academic standards but the subscription money and regular access to Texas for recruiting outweighs the complaints.

-Pac-12, with no great teams left to grab, elects to hold firm. This angers UCLA and some of the other schools, but without a place to land they don't jump.

-The American grabs the remaining Big 12 schools (Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, West Virginia) and adds NIU for an 18-member conference. They split into three regions mostly by geography and hope that's enough to take the Big 12's spot as a Power 5 conference.

Cliff Racer
Mar 24, 2007

by Lowtax
Big Ten isn't taking Kansas alone and its definitely not taking TCU. Either its all about TV markets and Kansas is worthless or its all about football program quality, individual brands and creating match ups in which case Kansas, even with basketball, is still worth less than the Big Ten median average so why bring them in?

kayakyakr
Feb 16, 2004

Kayak is true

C. Everett Koop posted:

My scenario:

-Big 12 doesn't expand, or maybe expands, potentially expands. However, the TV networks want an extension of the Grant of Rights without paying any more money, which the power players in the conference don't want. Whether they're 10/12/14 teams, the Big 12 keeps trucking along but the feeling that the end is near remains.

-Big 12 Grant of Rights ends in 2024, Oklahoma leaves for the SEC. Everyone starts whacking the panic button, but the SEC doesn't add anyone else because they're hoping for Texas

-Big Ten adds AAU member Kansas, which adds the second best available brand (Kansas basketball) to it's portfolio. However, they don't add anyone else because they're also hoping for Texas

-Texas is talking to everyone, but they refuse to give up the Longhorn Network, which ends up being a dealbreaker for the Big 10/Pac-12/SEC. However...

-Texas goes to the ACC in everything but football, of which they become an independent. Effectively, they get the Notre Dame deal, which includes rights to Texas football home games that they can either sell or keep for the Longhorn Network, and the ACC/ESPN have first right of refusal if it comes to buying out the LHN, as well as a sharing of content between the two. ACC is now a 16-team basketball conference, 14-team football conference with Notre Dame/Texas playing five games a year against ACC foes and having access to the ACC's bowl package.

-SEC adds Oklahoma State, the biggest available school. Baylor is still down in the basement and TCU isn't seen as necessary for the Dallas-Ft. Worth market. It kinda breaks the handshake agreement that the SEC won't add a school from a state with a pre-existing member, but Oklahoma allows it to happen. Instead of divisions the SEC splits into four pods: Oklahoma/Oklahoma State/Texas A&M/Arkansas, Missouri/LSU/Mississippi State/Ole Miss, Alabama/Auburn/Florida/Georgia, Tennessee/Kentucky/Vanderbilt/South Carolina.

-Big Ten adds TCU, for said Dallas-Ft. Worth TV market. There's some grumbling about TCU not being up to the conference's academic standards but the subscription money and regular access to Texas for recruiting outweighs the complaints.

-Pac-12, with no great teams left to grab, elects to hold firm. This angers UCLA and some of the other schools, but without a place to land they don't jump.

-The American grabs the remaining Big 12 schools (Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, West Virginia) and adds NIU for an 18-member conference. They split into three regions mostly by geography and hope that's enough to take the Big 12's spot as a Power 5 conference.

TCU is an odd add for the Big Ten. Texas Tech has a bigger ratings following in DFW than TCU, despite their location. Hell, Oklahoma State probably draws a better rating, on average, than TCU in that area.

You have the SEC doubling down on Oklahoma, which could happen, but your SEC waits scenario won't work. Oklahoma State is a much more powerful legislative entity than any entanglements in Texas. OU can't move without OSU. I could see the SEC adding both OU and OSU, but it would be at once, not as a second choice. As an aside, OU leadership is apparently currently very adverse to the SEC.

I could see the Pac 12 holding steady if their only options are Texas Tech, Baylor, KSU, ISU, and WVU.

Side thought. If the Pac 12 has KU and TTU available, I bet they take those two. Texas Tech has been cozying up to the Pac-12 with their scheduling, playing ASU, Arizona, and now announcing a home/home in Oregon '23 & '24 today.

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?
Boy that is a lot of words to spend saying wrong things

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE
What's actually going to happen is the Big 8 will get back together and Barry Switzerland finds the fountain of youth and takes over when Bobby retires.

Randaconda
Jul 3, 2014

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

MourningView posted:

Football has been the driving factor behind pretty much every decision the ACC has made since they started expanding.

Only after FSU and Clemson threatened to walk if Tobacco Road kept trying to add schools with good basketball and lovely football.

General Dog
Apr 26, 2008

Everybody's working for the weekend

C. Everett Koop posted:

My scenario:

-Big Ten adds TCU, for said Dallas-Ft. Worth TV market. There's some grumbling about TCU not being up to the conference's academic standards but the subscription money and regular access to Texas for recruiting outweighs the complaints.


I know I've put a lot of effort into arguing insane things, but this is insane.

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice
Iowa State has a better chance of a Big Ten invite than any Big XII school that isn't Kansas, Oklahoma, or Texas. And Iowa State does not have a good chance of a Big Ten invite.

drunk leprechaun
May 7, 2007
sobriety is for the weak and the stupid

whiteyfats posted:

Only after FSU and Clemson threatened to walk if Tobacco Road kept trying to add schools with good basketball and lovely football.

Based on what? VT(a football school) and Miami(a for sure football school) and BC(ok so that's kinda a push but their football program isn't awful historically) were all added back in '04/'05. The latest three additions Pitt, Cuse, and Louisville are all mixed at best and if you asked me more basketball schools, though they aren't awful additions in football.

Bird in a Blender
Nov 17, 2005

It's amazing what they can do with computers these days.

KIM JONG TRILL posted:

I think Baylor might be the most vulnerable of all at this point. No P5 will want to touch that with a 10 foot pole. Not to mention all of the other reasons nobody would want them.

They're still in Texas, which helps them a lot, but since Ann Richards is long gone, they don't have the state to help them out. At least Baylor is in a bad spot of their own making; ISU is mostly just unlucky.

Tank44
Jun 13, 2005

We want the ball & We're going to score

C. Everett Koop posted:

My scenario:

-Texas is talking to everyone, but they refuse to give up the Longhorn Network, which ends up being a dealbreaker for the Big 10/Pac-12/SEC. However...

-Pac-12, with no great teams left to grab, elects to hold firm. This angers UCLA and some of the other schools, but without a place to land they don't jump.


I can see the Pac12 being okay with LHN since it will essentially be PAC-12 Texas since there's the main national network and then 6 local regional networks (WA/OR/BayArea/LA/AZ/Mountian) and in this case could have a TX & TXT regional Pac12 and TX would just be called Longhorn network with some added Tech programming.

kayakyakr
Feb 16, 2004

Kayak is true

Tank44 posted:

I can see the Pac12 being okay with LHN since it will essentially be PAC-12 Texas since there's the main national network and then 6 local regional networks (WA/OR/BayArea/LA/AZ/Mountian) and in this case could have a TX & TXT regional Pac12 and TX would just be called Longhorn network with some added Tech programming.

Except that Pac-12 networks are on Fox and LHN is ESPN.

Numlock
May 19, 2007

The simplest seppo on the forums
The horns already shot down the idea of turning the LHN into a Big 12 network even when the big 12 offered to guarentee the LHN payout to them.


The LHN is going to be Longhorn only until the sun explodes or ESPN folds due to all the deals they overpaid for

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice
I like how Fox and ESPN kicked off the Big XII possibly expanding because of the big contracts they gave to the Big Ten and ACC but now are balking at the possibility of the Big XII forcing them to pay $20 million a year for a school like Memphis or Cinci even though its their own drat fault. As long as the ACC was unstable the Big XII didn't feel a need to do anything.

Spacebump
Dec 24, 2003

Dallas Mavericks: Generations
Iowa State is an important part of the Big 12 to me because Tulane's new AD has connections there and is probably trying to use them to sneak into the conference. I hope the real reason Fox and ESPN are mad is because the Big 12 told them they are probably adding Tulane.

If Tulane makes it into the Big 12, I'll root for Iowa State vs Iowa every year.

kayakyakr
Feb 16, 2004

Kayak is true

Thoguh posted:

I like how Fox and ESPN kicked off the Big XII possibly expanding because of the big contracts they gave to the Big Ten and ACC but now are balking at the possibility of the Big XII forcing them to pay $20 million a year for a school like Memphis or Cinci even though its their own drat fault. As long as the ACC was unstable the Big XII didn't feel a need to do anything.

Yup. Solidifying the ACC meant the Big XII is the likely target conference if everyone decides to go to 16. Did see an interesting thing where the networks may renegotiate TV contracts to boost everyone's payouts in exchange for an extended GoR. We'll see how that goes.

Spacebump posted:

Iowa State is an important part of the Big 12 to me because Tulane's new AD has connections there and is probably trying to use them to sneak into the conference. I hope the real reason Fox and ESPN are mad is because the Big 12 told them they are probably adding Tulane.

If Tulane makes it into the Big 12, I'll root for Iowa State vs Iowa every year.

Legit hoping to add Tulane. Let's get weird.

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

Spacebump posted:

Iowa State is an important part of the Big 12 to me because Tulane's new AD has connections there and is probably trying to use them to sneak into the conference. I hope the real reason Fox and ESPN are mad is because the Big 12 told them they are probably adding Tulane.

If Tulane makes it into the Big 12, I'll root for Iowa State vs Iowa every year.

That's rude as heck, man, Tulane was one of the teams I coached in my (still on-going) like 75 season long NCAA 2004 dynasty

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice

kayakyakr posted:

Yup. Solidifying the ACC meant the Big XII is the likely target conference if everyone decides to go to 16. Did see an interesting thing where the networks may renegotiate TV contracts to boost everyone's payouts in exchange for an extended GoR. We'll see how that goes.

Staying at 10, getting extra money, and extending the GOR to the mid 2030s would be pretty awesome in my view. Though I've resigned myself to adding at least two and decided that Memphis and Tulane piss me off the least. They are a more natural extension of the conference geographically, would open up some nice areas for recruiting, and involve away games in New Orleans.

kayakyakr
Feb 16, 2004

Kayak is true

Thoguh posted:

Staying at 10, getting extra money, and extending the GOR to the mid 2030s would be pretty awesome in my view. Though I've resigned myself to adding at least two and decided that Memphis and Tulane piss me off the least. They are a more natural extension of the conference geographically, would open up some nice areas for recruiting, and involve away games in New Orleans.

UT is diametrically opposed to extending the GoR. UT tends to get their way.

Edward Mass
Sep 14, 2011

𝅘𝅥𝅮 I wanna go home with the armadillo
Good country music from Amarillo and Abilene
Friendliest people and the prettiest women you've ever seen
𝅘𝅥𝅮
Ohio governor John "son of a mailman" Kasich wrote a letter to the Big 12 in support of Cincy joining.

Henchman of Santa
Aug 21, 2010

MourningView posted:

That's rude as heck, man, Tulane was one of the teams I coached in my (still on-going) like 75 season long NCAA 2004 dynasty

Please tell me you're taking a new job every single year

Hed
Mar 31, 2004

Fun Shoe

Contract with The American

Cliff Racer
Mar 24, 2007

by Lowtax

Thoguh posted:

Iowa State has a better chance of a Big Ten invite than any Big XII school that isn't Kansas, Oklahoma, or Texas. And Iowa State does not have a good chance of a Big Ten invite.

Assuming it has okay academics, KSU would probably rank higher as well. OSU too.

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

Henchman of Santa posted:

Please tell me you're taking a new job every single year

Every four or five; mostly crappy mid majors aside from the initial obligatory Iowa stint. I'm also to the point where the game tries to auto-retire me at the end of every season, but if you exit and then reload from right after the title game for some reason it tricks it and you get to play another season. I think it starts doing that after like 25 or 30 seasons. I erased JoePa from the record books way before the NCAA did

I initially took a Sun Belt job solely because I was sick of playing Inexplicable Video Game Powerhouse North Texas in the title game every season and wanted to knock them down another peg

MourningView fucked around with this message at 01:30 on Aug 3, 2016

b0ng
Jan 16, 2004

Thats a nice Game 7 you have there. Would be a shame if somebody nailed it down.
Edit

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice

Cliff Racer posted:

Assuming it has okay academics, KSU would probably rank higher as well. OSU too.

Lol. K-State having good academics.

Sash!
Mar 16, 2001


MourningView posted:

I think it starts doing that after like 25 or 30 seasons.

40 seasons, I think.

I'm in the 2056 season in 2006.

I kept having to play Texas Tech in the Whatever Bowl Hosts the BCS Championship, so now I play them to start the season every year just to knock them out.

Zoran
Aug 19, 2008

I lost to you once, monster. I shall not lose again! Die now, that our future can live!

KIM JONG TRILL posted:

I think Baylor might be the most vulnerable of all at this point. No P5 will want to touch that with a 10 foot pole. Not to mention all of the other reasons nobody would want them.

I just realized that we're going to hear about how hard Baylor is working to "overcome adversity" roughly two hundred times this season

Edward Mass
Sep 14, 2011

𝅘𝅥𝅮 I wanna go home with the armadillo
Good country music from Amarillo and Abilene
Friendliest people and the prettiest women you've ever seen
𝅘𝅥𝅮

kayakyakr posted:

Except that Pac-12 networks are on Fox and LHN is ESPN.

Pac-12 Networks are owned by the conference 100%.

kayakyakr
Feb 16, 2004

Kayak is true

CaptainYesterday posted:

Pac-12 Networks are owned by the conference 100%.

Corrected. Still applies with ESPN owning LHN.

Numlock
May 19, 2007

The simplest seppo on the forums
So per some info I saw this morning both OU and Texas are opposing any extension of the GoR.

Probably just figuring it would be dumb to extend it even if they stayed since who the gently caress knows whats going to be going on with TV in 8 years but also it probably means they are very interested in having a lot of options to jump ship.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Numlock posted:

So per some info I saw this morning both OU and Texas are opposing any extension of the GoR.

Probably just figuring it would be dumb to extend it even if they stayed since who the gently caress knows whats going to be going on with TV in 8 years but also it probably means they are very interested in having a lot of options to jump ship.

Hell yeah Pac 16 happening in 2024 you heard it hear first

- Chip Brown

Stanley Tucheetos
May 15, 2012

PostNouveau posted:

Hell yeah Pac 16 happening in 2024 you heard it hear first

- Chip Brown

Not going to lie, I would love to see the Big 10+4+2 and a big 12-4.

GOOD TIMES ON METH
Mar 17, 2006

Fun Shoe
https://twitter.com/jwilliamscincy/status/762433790622916609

Yeehaw

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012
Oh hell yes

General Dog
Apr 26, 2008

Everybody's working for the weekend

The other 8 better not bend over for Texas and OU on this unless they agree to extend the GOR. Otherwise, what's the point of appeasing them?

Hed
Mar 31, 2004

Fun Shoe

General Dog posted:

what's the point of appeasing them?

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE

General Dog posted:

The other 8 better not bend over for Texas and OU on this unless they agree to extend the GOR. Otherwise, what's the point of appeasing them?

Because if they don't sell definitely take our ball and go home (with the Big 12 being relegated to G5 status) instead of only probably taking our ball and going home.

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DJExile
Jun 28, 2007


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