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Slate Action posted:I do keep hearing from Bernouts about how HRC's turnout machine isn't as good as people assume. No idea if they're right: There are dozens of us! DOZENS! 
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Aug 4, 2016 15:17
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Seams posted:so assuming clinton wins who does the GOP run against her in 2020? I'm guessing cruz considering rubio is finished forever I hope it's Cruz because everybody loving hates him and there would be a concerted effort from the left to make sure he's not elected. He's that bad. He's a huge piece of a poo poo.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:17
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Slate Action posted:I do keep hearing from Bernouts about how HRC's turnout machine isn't as good as people assume. No idea if they're right: I have some sympathy for them. I loved Bernie as a candidate and I still love him as an elected official. But he lost. We gotta move on. The GOP rallied behind Trump once he won (granted, to hilarious results, but still). Republicans weren't gung-ho about McCain or Romney either for various reasons and they still got behind them, too. I wish people on the left had that discipline. It's possible to get behind a candidate you aren't crazy about and keep your principles.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:17
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Slate Action posted:I do keep hearing from Bernouts about how HRC's turnout machine isn't as good as people assume. No idea if they're right: lol, I guess we should listen to this VICE columnist's friends opinions over, you know, polling Also Boosted get your chicken poo poo rear end in here https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/761204358805594113
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Aug 4, 2016 15:18
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TheScott2K posted:I was looking forward to Republican Tears Day but now I'm just enjoying Republican Tears Year. I think I will create two feeds this year. One for the alt right trumpstaffel tears and one for the never trump crew. You know, since there isn't actually a Republican Party.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:18
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Atoramos posted:Is there any historical precedent for a candidate to reach their highest-polling mark after the conventions, and still lose? Not really. If you're well ahead after the conventions you're untouchable. Mind you we're not there yet, and the conventions were really early. The next 2-3 weeks are going to be very interesting. Just like in the Democratic primary, she can still lose, but the fundamentals of the race would need to somehow change, and in Trump's favour.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:18
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Slate Action posted:I do keep hearing from Bernouts about how HRC's turnout machine isn't as good as people assume. No idea if they're right: Bernouts are the loving delusional ones. Hillary vastly over performed in the final primaries. What Bernouts called "rigging" was actually just good organizational structure. gently caress me, I voted for Bernie (in Iowa!) but Bernie supporters drive me loving batty.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:19
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Atoramos posted:Is there any historical precedent for a candidate to reach their highest-polling mark after the conventions, and still lose? Well many candidates do in fact reach their highest polling mark after the conventions, and about half of them lose! But for candidates who have hit similar margins to Clinton and still lost, Dukakis in '88.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:19
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Aug 4, 2016 15:19
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I still wouldn't stop Arzying just yet. Just look at Clinton's 50/50 chance to lose this critical swing state: I just don't know, you guys.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:19
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I've spoken to many Bernie supporters and Delegates and they tell me that Bernie will win CA/Hillary stole AZ and NY/ whats in the speeches????
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Aug 4, 2016 15:20
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this loving election, oh my god is Melania now going to self-deport?
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Aug 4, 2016 15:20
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Louisgod posted:I hope it's Cruz because everybody loving hates him and there would be a concerted effort from the left to make sure he's not elected. He's that bad. He's a huge piece of a poo poo. It will be Cruz. His RNC speech will be looked back upon as wise. He's the answer for the inevitable cries of "We lost because Trump wasn't conservative enough!" And he will get stomped because he's the most repellent person anyone has ever seen. Next to him, Hillary looks like Meryl Streep.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:20
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They're gonna ratfuck Trump, aren't they?
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Aug 4, 2016 15:20
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if playing xcom has taught me anything its that this is more like a 50/50 chance of a chrysalid disembowling my veteran soldier and turning the entire operation into a failure and australia will pull its funding and the aliens will win
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Aug 4, 2016 15:20
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broken clock opsec posted:if she cracks the GOP this year there will be no organized effort against her in 2020 There is going to be a republican presidential candidate who takes the few coherent parts of Trump's campaign, and who isn't mentally ill, and he is going to ride them to the white house. Maybe they won't be organized enough to get the job done in 2020, but likely in 2024. I don't necessarily agree with all of it, but you can make some salient arguments that free trade isn't a great deal for all Americans, or that NATO is a relic from World War 2 that needs to be adjusted, or even that the United States doesn't have to be the world's nuclear weapons authority and hall monitor unless there is a direct economic interest in it for us (i.e. a protection racket that cuts out the part about funneling money to multi-national corporations and sends it straight to the American people). And that's what Trump's campaign has really been to me. A few ideas that espouse conservative orthodoxy that rally together republican voters who feel sold out by their party, that just happens to be layered under mountains of madness.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:21
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Mr. Pumroy posted:if playing xcom has taught me anything its that this is more like a 50/50 chance of a chrysalid disembowling my veteran soldier and turning the entire operation into a failure and australia will pull its funding and the aliens will win when you hit trump zombies they turn even more monstrous
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Aug 4, 2016 15:21
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I think everyone is a bit too excited about the polls. I'm including myself in this. She had a great bounce after the convention, but that will settle down in the next few weeks, too. If we're still here 2 weeks from now, then I'll start buying the champagne. But I'm not celebrating over these polls for the same reason I wasn't depressed by the polls after the RNC that had Trump in the lead. Things will change. That being said, it's a lot of fun watching the Right freak the gently caress out about them.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:22
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WampaLord posted:It will be Cruz. His RNC speech will be looked back upon as wise. He's the answer for the inevitable cries of "We lost because Trump wasn't conservative enough!" Yeah, just what the GOP needs! Doubling-down on crazy didn't work, and tripling-down on crazy blew up even worse. But quadrupling down, THAT'S gonna do it! Ugh. These loving clowns.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:22
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 Me this morning
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Aug 4, 2016 15:22
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Atoramos posted:I still wouldn't stop Arzying just yet. Just look at Clinton's 50/50 chance to lose this critical swing state: I can't wait for the apocalyptic meltdowns on Youtube from Arizonans whose political clout is undone by Californians migrating and Hispanics organizing. I'm going to watch them with "Nearer my God to Thee" on in the background.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:22
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The Hilldawg is gonna be 72 when she runs for re-election if she wins the presidency this year. I know people are living longer and longer these days, but it's also possible she might just not run for health reasons.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:22
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exquisite tea posted:Well many candidates do in fact reach their highest polling mark after the conventions, and about half of them lose! This is a good example but not the way you might think. Dukakis was polling gangbusters against Bush until the conventions, which were held in the same order as this year, as in incumbent last. Bush surged ahead after the RNC, and was never down in the polls again. So if this is a repeat of 1988, Trump is Dukakis.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:23
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So Trump has basically no chance at Florida? Is it even possible for the GOP to win without it? Is it too late to nominate McCain again?
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Aug 4, 2016 15:23
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The Nastier Nate posted:There is going to be a republican presidential candidate who takes the few coherent parts of Trump's campaign, and who isn't mentally ill, and he is going to ride them to the white house. Maybe they won't be organized enough to get the job done in 2020, but likely in 2024. counterpoint: the entirety of the republican party is mentally ill evidence: they thought they could run trump
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Aug 4, 2016 15:23
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Read this top to bottom and Trump keeps going up up UP! https://twitter.com/HawkinsUSA/status/761136693042905088
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Aug 4, 2016 15:23
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zoux posted:For four years they've been planning to run against Obama's third term and then this happens lmao they knew this was going to happen too. they knew Hillary was going to get the 16 nom and all they had to do was stack ammo during her congressional and executive tenures to use if the gop nom slipped up so they could control the media narrative. They farted that all away in the last three years because boy howdy they just hate Obama so much and wouldn't it be great if we use all this leverage to make an outgoing president less popular? Then they double down by squandering any power Benjamin ghazi or emailgate had, blowing their load in the primaries. So now all they have left to attack Hillary's record is some flimsy Iran payment poo poo when they could have stretched the email investigation so that they could use it to attack every single day until it resolved
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Aug 4, 2016 15:24
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Elephanthead posted:So Trump has basically no chance at Florida? Is it even possible for the GOP to win without it? Is it too late to nominate McCain again? If those 13% Latino voter numbers are true, nope.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:24
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Antti posted:This is a good example but not the way you might think. Dukakis was polling gangbusters against Bush until the conventions, which were held in the same order as this year, as in incumbent last. Bush surged ahead after the RNC, and was never down in the polls again. So if this is a repeat of 1988, Trump is Dukakis. Hm yeah I forgot how early in the season the conventions were this year.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:24
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The Nastier Nate posted:There is going to be a republican presidential candidate who takes the few coherent parts of Trump's campaign, and who isn't mentally ill, and he is going to ride them to the white house. Maybe they won't be organized enough to get the job done in 2020, but likely in 2024. 8 years ago it was crazy how much the demographics had shifted since the Bush years. Now we're seeing those same demographic shifts put the Senate in play for the Dems when it shouldn't be. A 50/50 chance Clinton takes AZ on the 538 now-cast. 8 years from now, it's going to be even harder running on a platform of xenophobia and conservatism, especially when Obama will have become the Reagan of the Left.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:25
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Nenonen posted:this loving election, oh my god yes our first presidential divorce our first presidential remarriage the bachelor: white house
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Aug 4, 2016 15:25
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zoux posted:If those 13% Latino voter numbers are true, nope. Exactly this. Like, if that's the margin Hillary is winning Latino voters by, then wrap it all up, that's the ball game.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:26
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Atoramos posted:I hope everyone is Arzying because these numbers do not look good for Clinton: I've never seen a convention bump that looked like a sympathy bump before.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:26
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Elephanthead posted:So Trump has basically no chance at Florida? Is it even possible for the GOP to win without it? Is it too late to nominate McCain again? No, kinda, yes. There's a scenario where white turnout goes off the charts, uneducated whites go for Trump in droves and minority turnout and their R/D split remains static, where Trump conquers states like WI, MI, OH and PA while losing FL. But it requires some crazy assumptions.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:26
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fart blood posted:They're gonna ratfuck Trump, aren't they?  that fucker is going to get away 
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Aug 4, 2016 15:26
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I'm still lolling at the lede in that Rasmussen poll article.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:27
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Slate Action posted:I do keep hearing from Bernouts about how HRC's turnout machine isn't as good as people assume. No idea if they're right: I've been going to volunteer meetings to organize GOTV efforts. They're full of poo poo. We regularly get so many volunteers that we can't fit them all in the office.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:27
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The Nastier Nate posted:There is going to be a republican presidential candidate who takes the few coherent parts of Trump's campaign, and who isn't mentally ill, and he is going to ride them to the white house. Maybe they won't be organized enough to get the job done in 2020, but likely in 2024. The two coherent parts of Trump's campaign are (1) explicitly pandering to the economic struggles of poor white republican voters and (2) racism. 1 is a solid strategy for winning the Republican primary but these are Republican voters for the most part anyway. 2 blocks you from winning because of the demographic changes in the United States: you cannot win the Presidency with the sort of losses among minorities that racism now causes. Trumpism is a dead end for the Republican coalition.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:28
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i hope they somehow get trump to resign as nominee and replace him with jeb! i mean the main problem with the ratfuck theory is that there isn't really any alternative at this point.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:28
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zoux posted:I'm still lolling at the lede in that Rasmussen poll article. Pretty sure that tweet was using the lede from the previous week's poll by mistake. https://twitter.com/a__robot/status/761187007947079680
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Aug 4, 2016 15:28
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