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Louisgod
Sep 25, 2003

Always Watching
Bread Liar

Slate Action posted:

Pretty sure that tweet was using the lede from the previous week's poll by mistake.

https://twitter.com/a__robot/status/761187007947079680

lmao, gagged on my coffee with this one, thank you.

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Perfectly Safe
May 30, 2003

no danger here.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

She's not a politician, she's a consultant in DC. Her linkedin page links to a dead Homestead web page that the wayback machine has one snapshot of. https://web.archive.org/web/20140115142243/http://www.tatianawrightindependentconsultant.com/

That's as may be, but she self-describes as a politician on twitter. Fortunately, it seems that "politician on twitter" fully describes of the extent to which she is actually a politician.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Slate Action posted:

Pretty sure that tweet was using the lede from the previous week's poll by mistake.

https://twitter.com/a__robot/status/761187007947079680

I just checked their site and you are correct
"A post-convention bounce appears to have given Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton her biggest lead over Republican rival Donald Trump since June in our latest weekly White House Watch survey. This is the first update that includes both the Libertarian and Green Party candidates."

also lol at that tweet

Nitrousoxide
May 30, 2011

do not buy a oneplus phone



Antti posted:

No, kinda, yes.

There's a scenario where white turnout goes off the charts, uneducated whites go for Trump in droves and minority turnout and their R/D split remains static, where Trump conquers states like WI, MI, OH and PA while losing FL. But it requires some crazy assumptions.


Medical Marijuana is on the ballot for Florida this year. I don't anticipate a low turnout for young voters, who generally hate Trump.

SuperDucky
May 13, 2007

by exmarx

Slate Action posted:

Pretty sure that tweet was using the lede from the previous week's poll by mistake.

https://twitter.com/a__robot/status/761187007947079680

Thank you for your service

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

ironically the one thing that trumpism shows is that the Republicans can reform by jettisoning the conservative and evangelical outreach because they will fall in loving line, but to really become the party of poor whites without being the party of racism you sort of have to jettison the rich people as well, and then the party is...well, it's basically a new labor party

which, if that happens, is pretty much the death of the current republican party and it's no longer an OH GOD NO to this future Republican Labor Party getting power

eonwe
Aug 11, 2008



Lipstick Apathy

Shageletic posted:



Me this morning

The Nastier Nate
May 22, 2005

All aboard the corona bus!

HONK! HONK!


Yams Fan

broken clock opsec posted:

counterpoint: the entirety of the republican party is mentally ill

evidence: they thought they could run trump

Trump had a real chance to win. Whether you're voting for Hillary or not, we can all admit she is a deeply flawed candidate with a lot of professional, moral and ethical failings and a candidate Trump who was probably taking the right meds would be calling this out, coupled with cries of the democratic party selling out American's to corporate and foreign interests (yes I realize the irony meter of a republican doing it is off the charts). On top of that, Trump could have hammered his policy positions he has on his website, which are actually coherent, as an alternative to Clinton's policies.

It's still crazy to believe that Hillary Clinton, the rational candidate in this race was under investigation by the FBI for a better part of a year, and the only reason she's not being indicted is because her crimes fell closer to ignorance then malice.

At first I thought Trump would never win the nomination, then I thought he a had a real chance to win the presidency. Now he's gone so far off the rails that all we can do is grab a bucket of popcorn and prepare for a celebrity meltdown bigger than a hundred Britney Spears and Lindsay Lohans put together.

eonwe
Aug 11, 2008



Lipstick Apathy

evilweasel posted:

ironically the one thing that trumpism shows is that the Republicans can reform by jettisoning the conservative and evangelical outreach because they will fall in loving line, but to really become the party of poor whites without being the party of racism you sort of have to jettison the rich people as well, and then the party is...well, it's basically a new labor party

which, if that happens, is pretty much the death of the current republican party and it's no longer an OH GOD NO to this future Republican Labor Party getting power

Yeah, if they can survive this election then they've seen exactly how far evangelicals are willing to be bullied, and its great

Phobophilia
Apr 26, 2008

by Hand Knit
the sheer cowardice and irrelevance of the evangelicals all falling in line to lay hands on donald is still laffo

WoodrowSkillson
Feb 24, 2005

*Gestures at 60 years of Lions history*

theflyingexecutive posted:

they knew this was going to happen too. they knew Hillary was going to get the 16 nom and all they had to do was stack ammo during her congressional and executive tenures to use if the gop nom slipped up so they could control the media narrative. They farted that all away in the last three years because boy howdy they just hate Obama so much and wouldn't it be great if we use all this leverage to make an outgoing president less popular? Then they double down by squandering any power Benjamin ghazi or emailgate had, blowing their load in the primaries. So now all they have left to attack Hillary's record is some flimsy Iran payment poo poo when they could have stretched the email investigation so that they could use it to attack every single day until it resolved

As of late 2015, i think they saw the writing on the wall in terms of candidates and their strategy was to cut clintons head off before she got the nomination. That's why they went all in on every scandal they could find, and tried desperately to get something to stick. It failed, and now they have inoculated the public on these issues and are out of new ones unless there is some true bombshell they are patiently sitting on, like she has literally been taking bribes or something.

Perfectly Safe
May 30, 2003

no danger here.

Shageletic posted:



Me this morning

Well, I have to say that you're a fine looking man but maybe want to lay off the hair products a little because, y'know, that poo poo typically moves a bit.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

evilweasel posted:

ironically the one thing that trumpism shows is that the Republicans can reform by jettisoning the conservative and evangelical outreach because they will fall in loving line, but to really become the party of poor whites without being the party of racism you sort of have to jettison the rich people as well, and then the party is...well, it's basically a new labor party

which, if that happens, is pretty much the death of the current republican party and it's no longer an OH GOD NO to this future Republican Labor Party getting power

My main concern is that without a massive electoral landslide (looking better everyday though), that this strategy or angle or appeal isn't sufficiently repudiated. I've seen a lot of people, journalists, strategists and insiders not rando eggs, worry that an American National Front could be a lingering result of this election because if you can peel a quarter of the GOP electorate every presidential cycle just by being racist as gently caress, that's going to happen every four years like clockwork.

fart blood
Sep 13, 2008

by VideoGames

The Nastier Nate posted:

Trump had a real chance to win. Whether you're voting for Hillary or not, we can all admit she is a deeply flawed candidate with a lot of professional, moral and ethical failings and a candidate Trump who was probably taking the right meds would be calling this out, coupled with cries of the democratic party selling out American's to corporate and foreign interests (yes I realize the irony meter of a republican doing it is off the charts). On top of that, Trump could have hammered his policy positions he has on his website, which are actually coherent, as an alternative to Clinton's policies.

It's still crazy to believe that Hillary Clinton, the rational candidate in this race was under investigation by the FBI for a better part of a year, and the only reason she's not being indicted is because her crimes fell closer to ignorance then malice.

At first I thought Trump would never win the nomination, then I thought he a had a real chance to win the presidency. Now he's gone so far off the rails that all we can do is grab a bucket of popcorn and prepare for a celebrity meltdown bigger than a hundred Britney Spears and Lindsay Lohans put together.

I still think Trump never wanted to actually win and is trying to throw it.

If he's up in the polls by the last week of October, don't be surprised if he starts yelling that women don't own their uteri and screaming the N word over and over into a live mic.

Phobophilia
Apr 26, 2008

by Hand Knit
i used to go to a church that had ties with the evangelical movement and preached against evolution and for the rapture and they sure as hell would not have fallen in line behind the triple divorcee candidate

theflyingexecutive
Apr 22, 2007

WoodrowSkillson posted:

As of late 2015, i think they saw the writing on the wall in terms of candidates and their strategy was to cut clintons head off before she got the nomination. That's why they went all in on every scandal they could find, and tried desperately to get something to stick. It failed, and now they have inoculated the public on these issues and are out of new ones unless there is some true bombshell they are patiently sitting on, like she has literally been taking bribes or something.

Part of the reason that strategy failed too was that Bernie God bless and keep him refused to attack her on any of those grounds

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


Boosted_C5 posted:

If you filter out all the noise i.e. adult and registered voter polls, Trump is pretty much a solid flat-line lock for about 40% of the electorate no matter what happens, no matter what he says, no matter how dire the situation is alleged to be.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...ns_with=johnson

So when you think about it, all we have to do is somehow make America hate Hillary even more than they already do and get her down to 38-39% in the polls.

WE CAN DO THIS

the moderate smoothing at that long of a period is way too strong. the less smoothing gives a more accurate picture.

VAGENDA OF MANOCIDE
Aug 1, 2004

whoa, what just happened here?







College Slice

Shageletic posted:



Me this morning

you know he dies right

The Nastier Nate posted:

Trump had a real chance to win.

no

quote:

Whether you're voting for Hillary or not, we can all admit she is a deeply flawed candidate

no

quote:

with a lot of professional, moral and ethical failings

i hope you realize those are rightwing narrative points that make absolutely no difference and only got play outside their shrinking echo chamber through delusional bernie-or-busters

because if you don't get it the republican party certainly has no chance to and will head into the same rocks to crash up against in 4 years time

quote:

and a candidate Trump who was probably taking the right meds would be calling this out, coupled with cries of the democratic party selling out American's to corporate and foreign interests (yes I realize the irony meter of a republican doing it is off the charts). On top of that, Trump could have hammered his policy positions he has on his website, which are actually coherent, as an alternative to Clinton's policies.

they're only coherent if you think the US should be run like an Italian mafia family from Godfather and you have no attention span at all

quote:

It's still crazy to believe that Hillary Clinton, the rational candidate in this race was under investigation by the FBI for a better part of a year, and the only reason she's not being indicted is because her crimes fell closer to ignorance then malice.

At first I thought Trump would never win the nomination, then I thought he a had a real chance to win the presidency. Now he's gone so far off the rails that all we can do is grab a bucket of popcorn and prepare for a celebrity meltdown bigger than a hundred Britney Spears and Lindsay Lohans put together.

lol

prefect
Sep 11, 2001

No one, Woodhouse.
No one.




Dead Man’s Band

Phobophilia posted:

i used to go to a church that had ties with the evangelical movement and preached against evolution and for the rapture and they sure as hell would not have fallen in line behind the triple divorcee candidate

What if the alternative was Hillary Clinton, who wants to abort the baby Jesus?

Mr. Pumroy
May 20, 2001


sometimes i think america is going to be ok

mango sentinel
Jan 5, 2001

by sebmojo

The Nastier Nate posted:

that the United States doesn't have to be the world's nuclear weapons authority and hall monitor unless there is a direct economic interest in it for us (i.e. a protection racket that cuts out the part about funneling money to multi-national corporations and sends it straight to the American people).
There is no salient argument for this.

codenameFANGIO
May 4, 2012

What are you even booing here?

The Nastier Nate posted:

Now he's gone so far off the rails that all we can do is grab a bucket of popcorn and prepare for a celebrity meltdown bigger than a hundred Britney Spears and Lindsay Lohans put together.

So ... Amanda Bynes

eonwe
Aug 11, 2008



Lipstick Apathy

broken clock opsec posted:

you know he dies right


if I died knowing trump's wife was an illegal immigrant, that would just be okay.

kibaces
Jul 11, 2016

Republican congress it is then

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

Uh guys, it's been 12 hours since Trump tweeted. :ohdear:

VAGENDA OF MANOCIDE
Aug 1, 2004

whoa, what just happened here?







College Slice

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Uh guys, it's been 12 hours since Trump tweeted. :ohdear:

i'm more waiting for a john mccain response

eonwe
Aug 11, 2008



Lipstick Apathy

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Uh guys, it's been 12 hours since Trump tweeted. :ohdear:

id laugh if his campaign took his account from him

lol

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

This article supposes that Melania's fake degree might have been to help her illegally obtain a visa.


God I hope this is true, Trump's campaign being utterly destroyed by a patriotic American Muslim and an illegal immigration scandal is exactly as ironic and poetic as this cycle deserves.

Taco Duck
Feb 18, 2011


I wonder what percentage of the GOP has their hopes pinned for this election on somebody shooting Trump

Phobophilia
Apr 26, 2008

by Hand Knit

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Uh guys, it's been 12 hours since Trump tweeted. :ohdear:

hi mr secret service agent, please check that trump is still alive and that manafort hasnt stabbed him to death with his ricin-enchanted umbrella

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

SuperDucky posted:

Thank you for your service

My stupid worker browse isn't allowing me to play the tweet. What's happening?

Bunleigh
Jun 6, 2005

by exmarx
from the Trump toxx bunker

Jack of Hearts posted:

You know, I know, everybody here knows we're all going to be banned on November 8th.

there is also almost a full uninterrupted page of Baloogan trying to rally the troops like he's King Theoden

prefect
Sep 11, 2001

No one, Woodhouse.
No one.




Dead Man’s Band

Shageletic posted:

My stupid worker browse isn't allowing me to play the tweet. What's happening?

The news anchor tries to throw it to a reporter on the scene, but he just gets Hall & Oates music from the sound system instead. Twice.

fart blood
Sep 13, 2008

by VideoGames

Black Dynamite posted:

I wonder what percentage of the GOP has their hopes pinned for this election on somebody shooting Trump

I don't know why the GOP doesn't just frame him for some crime or something. The government has conspired to do illegal poo poo all the time, I don't see why that isn't an option for them here.

sean10mm
Jun 29, 2005

It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD-2R World
Right now the Democrats are way more economically populist than the Republicans, and it has won them about 0% of the working class white racist vote, and almost all the not-white racist working class vote.

Economic populism by itself doesn't do poo poo in America. It's just the sprinkles on the politicized race hate cake. Anybody looking at Trump and going "But for the racism he's on to something!" are comically missing the point, because if you take away the race hate and general craziness then Trump is never nominated in the first place.

WhiskeyJuvenile
Feb 15, 2002

by Nyc_Tattoo
https://twitter.com/alanhe/status/761211033486823424

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

The Nastier Nate posted:

Trump had a real chance to win. Whether you're voting for Hillary or not, we can all admit she is a deeply flawed candidate with a lot of professional, moral and ethical failings and

Uh, I agree she is wrongly perceived that way by many.

eonwe
Aug 11, 2008



Lipstick Apathy

an 11 year old, smarter than entire crowds of trump supporters

Grem
Mar 29, 2004

It's how her species communicates

zoux posted:

This article supposes that Melania's fake degree might have been to help her illegally obtain a visa.


God I hope this is true, Trump's campaign being utterly destroyed by a patriotic American Muslim and an illegal immigration scandal is exactly as ironic and poetic as this cycle deserves.

I hope it's not, because attacking family members never plays well.

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SuperDucky
May 13, 2007

by exmarx

Shageletic posted:

My stupid worker browse isn't allowing me to play the tweet. What's happening?

prefect posted:

The news anchor tries to throw it to a reporter on the scene, but he just gets Hall & Oates music from the sound system instead. Twice.

Yes, but not just any anchor its goddamn Brian Williams and its extremely woke,

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