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gradenko_2000 posted:It's sort of like the Battle of Teutoberg Forest - the Roman Empire was already on a downward slope for a while, but we like to say "this is where the tide turned" because it's an easy shorthand. If it didn't happen, (pop) historians would have just pointed to something else as being the definitive decisive battle. What? The Battle of the Teutoberg Forest happened when the empire was barely 30 years old. It would be another 150 years until it reached its pinnacle.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:48
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Harrow posted:So here's a fun game to play: Pulling out of that one debate in the primary was one of the few things that hurt him.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:49
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Harrow posted:So here's a fun game to play: They are rigged by the liberal media conspiracy you see.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:51
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Night10194 posted:Hillary Clinton is the political equivalent of antibiotic resistant strains. They overused the slander and attack for everything she's ever done, and it's inoculated her against them. Now the Republican Party gets to poo poo itself to death, helpless to stop it. Some news org should hire that kid, he asks better questions than they do.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:53
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zoux posted:Pulling out of that one debate in the primary was one of the few things that hurt him. What if he knew he was going to lose Iowa anyway so he pulled out for an excuse?
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Aug 4, 2016 16:53
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zoux posted:Pulling out of that one debate in the primary was one of the few things that hurt him. People really overestimate how much the debates impact anything. They really don't change anyone's minds or turn base turnout. I could see Trump calling her a bitch or something like that in the debates to try to drive his turnout up though.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:54
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Anyone noticed he hasn't tweeted anything overtly negative for the past 24 hours? No replies to Khan, no defense of his wife's immigration status (her role seems to have been eliminated by campaign staff once the plagarized speech hit home), no screeds against Hillary? He's being muzzled somehow, although I can't imagine it lasting very long or how he agreed to shut up. Any vets still pulling for him are probably doing so with all the gusto of chugalugging a bottle of Listerine. My feeling is that he will likely shrug off the debates, get someone to do it in his place (PENCE!!! GET OVER HERE! ATTACK! ATTABOY!) or do one, melt down in the middle, then claim Hillary spiked his water.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:55
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Re: Trump's concession speech - I don't think that Trump is physically capable of admitting that he is, in fact, a loser. This is why I think he's absolutely going to triple down on the "rigged election" bit, and he's going to do real, actual damage by further eroding trust in democracy on his way down.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:55
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https://twitter.com/angiejackson23/status/761227710110760961 https://twitter.com/angiejackson23/status/761227825319903233 Twitter account is a Post & Courier reporter.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:55
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zoux posted:Actually he's been whining that they are on the same night as football games and people are wondering if he's already laying the groundwork for pulling out of them. I like that the NFL called him out as lying about getting a letter from them, and then the Debate Comm essentially told him to gently caress off.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:55
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mcmagic posted:People really overestimate how much the debates impact anything. They really don't change anyone's minds or turn base turnout. I could see Trump calling her a bitch or something like that in the debates to try to drive his turnout up though. Tell it to Rick Perry.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:55
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Binary Badger posted:Anyone noticed he hasn't tweeted anything overtly negative for the past 24 hours? They always manage to shut him up for a day or two at a time eventually. But you can't stop up an rear end in a top hat forever and it just makes the eventual explosion even worse.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:56
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zoux posted:Tell it to Rick Perry. His polls were dropping before that debate anyway though. He wasn't going to beat Romeny.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:57
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Binary Badger posted:Anyone noticed he hasn't tweeted anything overtly negative for the past 24 hours? Calm before the storm - his tirade against the Khans didn't come immediately after the DNC, either.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:57
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gradenko_2000 posted:Calm before the storm - his tirade against the Khans didn't come immediately after the DNC, either. So far the more they leash him the worse it is when he breaks off but I'm sure this time will be fine.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:58
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gradenko_2000 posted:It's sort of like the Battle of Teutoberg Forest - the Roman Empire was already on a downward slope for a while, but we like to say "this is where the tide turned" because it's an easy shorthand. If it didn't happen, (pop) historians would have just pointed to something else as being the definitive decisive battle. Are you thinking about a different battle because Teutoberg Forest was in the middle of the Pax Romana period. It checked the Roman expansion into Germany but that was about it.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:59
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Next Trump event is at 3:00pm Eastern in Maine, so we'll see what's up then.
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Aug 4, 2016 17:00
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emdash posted:Next Trump event is at 3:00pm Eastern in Maine, so we'll see what's up then. lol why the gently caress is he campaigning in Maine Here's a question, lets say Hillary wins with 350+ EVs, how much of a mandate does she get to claim, and how much are Republicans willing to poo poo talk their own party and candidate to combat any mandate narrative a Clinton admin tries to craft?
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Aug 4, 2016 17:00
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zoux posted:lol why the gently caress is he campaigning in Maine Split EVs so one might be in play?
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Aug 4, 2016 17:01
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zoux posted:lol why the gently caress is he campaigning in Maine I don't get it either. But Portland, ME it is CO GOP rep Mike Coffman has started running an explicitly anti-Trump ad: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/republican-releases-ad-promising-to-stand-up-to-trump-226642
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Aug 4, 2016 17:02
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Doctor Butts posted:Is it dumb to call Trump's unfiltered stream of consciousness speeches Trump Trots? I was thinking along the lines of all the crazy stuff he says reminds me of Gish Gallops. I had this exact same thought, though I'm calling this sort of behavior a Trump Dump for now.
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Aug 4, 2016 17:03
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Trump pretty much has to do the debates if he's still down a considerable amount to do the political equivalent of a hail mary. If not, Clinton can just coast into the general without saying anything.
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Aug 4, 2016 17:03
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 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-VfFi6Z14Q
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Aug 4, 2016 17:04
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zoux posted:lol why the gently caress is he campaigning in Maine Is this a rhetorical question? Republicans in Congress will pretend Trump never happened and will obstruct as hard as they have during Obama (because obstructing more is impossible). There is no mandate to do anything because the House will be controlled by the GOP and thus the people's will is that nothing will get done.
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Aug 4, 2016 17:04
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I was looking back at that 2013 PPP poll ranking Congress against gonorrhea. I'd forgotten that Trump was on the list of horribly unpopular things.quote:Q20 What do you have a higher opinion of: Congress or Donald Trump? To put that in perspective: quote:Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Congress?
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Aug 4, 2016 17:05
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Suffolk University 2-way in Florida: Clinton +6 4-way: Clinton +4 http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10740.php
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Aug 4, 2016 17:05
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zoux posted:Here's a question, lets say Hillary wins with 350+ EVs, how much of a mandate does she get to claim, and how much are Republicans willing to poo poo talk their own party and candidate to combat any mandate narrative a Clinton admin tries to craft? The media narrative after the election will be "Biggest win ever, landslide win, etc" and that will convince America that she has a huge mandate.
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Aug 4, 2016 17:06
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grBAL5vI7DE
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Aug 4, 2016 17:06
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Antti posted:Is this a rhetorical question? Republicans in Congress will pretend Trump never happened and will obstruct as hard as they have during Obama (because obstructing more is impossible). There is no mandate to do anything because the House will be controlled by the GOP and thus the people's will is that nothing will get done. I don't think you can draw the normal conclusions about what's going to happen following the race. They may have no congressional majority, they may be totally rebuked at the state level, they may be chastened to the point that they have to play ball. I mean it's Aug 4th and : https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/761223069461544961?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw They're already pointing fingers
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Aug 4, 2016 17:07
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Radish posted:Yeah some of you youn'uns don't remember the 90s and how much of a hate boner they had for Clinton. The idea that the Clintons are murdering people and should go to jail is not new. Even that wasn't the start. Leftover Bernie supporters are taking up the "Clinton is a murderer" charge and claiming that she and the DNC are literally killing everyone who questioned them over the email leaks or complained about the primary being "rigged". I haven't looked into it (because why the gently caress) but a guess a few people have supposedly died lately and suddenly it's Vince Foster all over again except this time from the far/fringe left Kilroy posted:carter was hated after he caused the 2008 financial crisis and tarnished bush's legacy, whose presidency had been going great up to that point History's greatest monster
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Aug 4, 2016 17:09
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Levitate posted:Leftover Bernie supporters are taking up the "Clinton is a murderer" charge and claiming that she and the DNC are literally killing everyone who questioned them over the email leaks or complained about the primary being "rigged". I haven't looked into it (because why the gently caress) but a guess a few people have supposedly died lately and suddenly it's Vince Foster all over again except this time from the far/fringe left There are so few of these people that they're basically irrelevant now.
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Aug 4, 2016 17:10
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this is tight
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Aug 4, 2016 17:10
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zoux posted:I don't think you can draw the normal conclusions about what's going to happen following the race. They may have no congressional majority, they may be totally rebuked at the state level, they may be chastened to the point that they have to play ball. If the Democrats have majorities, it won't matter, of course. If the Republicans hold on to a majority in the House (as they likely will), the first congressmen to be eliminated are probably the most moderate ones, leading to a Tea Party core of insanity. It's those deep red safe seats that have produced tea parties in the first place because they have enough of a swivel-eyed voting base to win primaries consistently. I really wouldn't get my hopes up on much getting done without a triple majority. Edit: I mean we've seen for the past eight years that the only GOP play is doubling down. They'll just double down even more. Some people will get knives stuck in their backs and the faces will change.
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Aug 4, 2016 17:12
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Edmund Lava posted:It's happened before True, but Truman was a master politician and aikidoed all of his bad breaks into vote-gains: when Thurmond broke off during the convention, Truman moved massively pro-civil rights and got a large number of progressive/African-American votes; when Wallace broke off, Truman moved hard right on foreign policy and grabbed more moderates and independents than Wallace ended up stealing away; when Congress refused to do anything and went into a long recess, Truman called them into emergency session, dropped an omnibus bill on them to enact his platform, and when they gave him the finger, he campaigned against them rather than nice-but-bland Dewey. Trump shares absolutely nothing with Truman other than the first four letters of his name and a willingness to use nukes. Edit: and a later-than-people-are-comfortable-with renunciation of the Klan Eschers Basement fucked around with this message at 17:15 on Aug 4, 2016 |
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Aug 4, 2016 17:13
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I teach college rhetoric so this is absolutely going into my course materials this fall.
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Aug 4, 2016 17:14
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"DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN" was a result of incredibly bad polling (IIRC the most commonly cited poll was a Reader's Digest poll with a self-selected sample, i.e. a reader who wanted to take part just mailed their slip of paper in!) and gut feeling punditry.
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Aug 4, 2016 17:15
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Night10194 posted:There are so few of these people that they're basically irrelevant now. I know, it's just that one of them is my...uhh, step-sister-in-law (I think). I like to keep a few crazy family members un-muted on facebook just to see what the talking points of the crazy's are because it's amusing, but yeah it's also just amazing to continue to see Republican attacks from the 90's recycled by the other side
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Aug 4, 2016 17:15
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Best case: Dems sweep all three national elections. This is unlikely, but possible by the slimmest of odds. Likely case: Dems take the White House, at the very least tie the Senate, and make ground on the House. Worst case: GOP sweep. About as possible as a dem sweep (mostly because the Presidential race).
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Aug 4, 2016 17:17
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Levitate posted:Leftover Bernie supporters are taking up the "Clinton is a murderer" charge and claiming that she and the DNC are literally killing everyone who questioned them over the email leaks or complained about the primary being "rigged". I haven't looked into it (because why the gently caress) but a guess a few people have supposedly died lately and suddenly it's Vince Foster all over again except this time from the far/fringe left The original person who came out with the "Clinton Death Count" in the 90s was a legit diagnosed crazy person who simply listed everyone who they knew died since Bill became governor and had had contact with the Clintons must have been killed by Bill or Hillary or on their orders. What you're seeing now is people with the same level of critical thinking doing the exact same thing.
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Aug 4, 2016 17:18
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Harrow posted:So here's a fun game to play: As much as I'd be inclined to say that skipping out on a debate seems like it would obviously be the more damaging move, I'm beginning to suspect that showing up for a debate, at least the first time around, would actually damage him more, but not necessarily because of anything he says. Debates are held in front of a live audience, presumably consisting of supporters of both candidates, and Trump has managed to cultivate a mob-like, cult-like following whose members get high on hatred and bloodlust and whose extremism seems to still somehow be escalating. While the most blatantly unhinged people will almost certainly get turned away at the door, this would be the first time that they'd be in the same room as the Hillary Clinton and her supporters as she attacks their idol of worship. I doubt that there would be any physical violence, but I also can't imagine the majority of Trump's base refraining from boos, hate speech, and shouting some truly vile things into the silence on national television even if it means they get kicked out or detained. After all, many of them hate political correctness with a fiery passion and seem to well and truly believe that showing even one ounce of politeness or a single shred of basic decency, regardless of the context, is a sign of trying to be politically correct because they are incapable of understanding that not everyone around them is motivated by a black pit of hatred and anger the way they themselves are. The media has already begun to pick up on the words and shouts of people on Trump's own rallies as a reflection of the type of nation he is leading us towards, but similar words or worse being shouted during one of the official debates would really make the message ring home for a whole bunch of people I think.
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