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Hmm my prediction of Trump dropping to 25% and freaking out in public is looking less flippant by the hour.
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Aug 4, 2016 21:46
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zoux posted:Which major black swan event that's happened this year helped Trump? The FBI presser, which he hosed up.
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Aug 4, 2016 21:47
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TVarmy posted:There has to be some kind of limit in polls-only and polls-plus forecasts on FiveThirtyEight, right? Because this far out, there's still a big number of unknowns and possibilities. Like those charts on weather that shows a cone of where a hurricane could go, and a dark red cone of where it's most likely to go. Has Nate Silver ever said if there's a floor for this? Because as much as I'd bet for Clinton at this point, I admit there's still strange-rear end futures where she could lose. But it'd call for a Trump Pivot that keeps his base, Clinton loving up on unprecedented levels, and a series of horrible tragedies Trump could safely spin in his favor. I'm saying, we have to be near that floor, and we're considering the bit of the yellow cone where Hurricane Donny does a 180 degree turn and starts raining blood instead of water. Eh, eventually there's just so many What-Ifs? that you just have to draw the line somewhere.
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Aug 4, 2016 21:47
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is that the lowest budget campaign ad ever made?
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Aug 4, 2016 21:48
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:The FBI presser, which FTFY
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Aug 4, 2016 21:48
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I thought the Orlando shooting would turn it around for him, actually, until he went and showed he cared more about fomenting praise than mourning the victims.
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Aug 4, 2016 21:49
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TVarmy posted:There has to be some kind of limit in polls-only and polls-plus forecasts on FiveThirtyEight, right? Because this far out, there's still a big number of unknowns and possibilities. Like those charts on weather that shows a cone of where a hurricane could go, and a dark red cone of where it's most likely to go. Has Nate Silver ever said if there's a floor for this? Because as much as I'd bet for Clinton at this point, I admit there's still strange-rear end futures where she could lose. But it'd call for a Trump Pivot that keeps his base, Clinton loving up on unprecedented levels, and a series of horrible tragedies Trump could safely spin in his favor. I'm saying, we have to be near that floor, and we're considering the bit of the yellow cone where Hurricane Donny does a 180 degree turn and starts raining blood instead of water. Considering his forecast jumped literally 30+ pts in a week there is definitely room for some skepticism Then again, his model may not even be designed to handle a fluctuation as big as the Trumpening
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Aug 4, 2016 21:49
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God drat I just cannot wait for the debates. Each one will be a bloodbath.
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Aug 4, 2016 21:49
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TVarmy posted:There has to be some kind of limit in polls-only and polls-plus forecasts on FiveThirtyEight, right? Because this far out, there's still a big number of unknowns and possibilities. Like those charts on weather that shows a cone of where a hurricane could go, and a dark red cone of where it's most likely to go. Has Nate Silver ever said if there's a floor for this? Because as much as I'd bet for Clinton at this point, I admit there's still strange-rear end futures where she could lose. But it'd call for a Trump Pivot that keeps his base, Clinton loving up on unprecedented levels, and a series of horrible tragedies Trump could safely spin in his favor. I'm saying, we have to be near that floor, and we're considering the bit of the yellow cone where Hurricane Donny does a 180 degree turn and starts raining blood instead of water. Those external variables are the reason it's not basically at 100% right now.
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Aug 4, 2016 21:50
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straight up brolic posted:is that the lowest budget campaign ad ever made? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RO71QxHpBRk "hey we need you to film a campaign spot" "aww but it's my smoke break" "no biggie lets do this"
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Aug 4, 2016 21:50
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If we're still on TPP-chat, the thing about trade is that tariffs are the main mechanism by which jobs are protected, and the difference, tariff-wise, between TPP and no TPP is like a 1.5% tariff. We have really, really low tariff rates, even without specific free trade deals.
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Aug 4, 2016 21:51
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DemeaninDemon posted:God drat I just cannot wait for the debates. Each one will be a bloodbath. He is literally going to find a way to weasel out of the debates, or send Pence to debate Clinton. He's already a maverick and doesn't Play By Their Rules, so this won't result in anything bad happening to him.
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Aug 4, 2016 21:51
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TVarmy posted:I thought the Orlando shooting would turn it around for him, actually, until he went and showed he cared more about fomenting praise than mourning the victims. It is amazing that a summer this ripe with terrorism is not working to the GOPs benefit
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Aug 4, 2016 21:51
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SquadronROE posted:He is literally going to find a way to weasel out of the debates, or send Pence to debate Clinton. He's already a maverick and doesn't Play By Their Rules, so this won't result in anything bad happening to him. ...As Trump rapidly loses like 15 points in the polls, are we still harping on "NOTHING TOUCHES HIM"?
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Aug 4, 2016 21:52
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If this election gives us an uncensored John McCain interview giving a motherfucking to every GOP-er that's loving with him right now, that may make up for approximately 1/4th of the damage of bringing Sarah Palin into limelight in my mind.
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Aug 4, 2016 21:52
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SquadronROE posted:He is literally going to find a way to weasel out of the debates, or send Pence to debate Clinton. He's already a maverick and doesn't Play By Their Rules, so this won't result in anything bad happening to him.
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Aug 4, 2016 21:52
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zoux posted:New McClatchy/Marist poll has H48 T33 jfc someone here yesterday was talking about eventually seeing a 52-32 poll and a loving day later a 48-33 comes out
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Aug 4, 2016 21:52
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Mel Mudkiper posted:It is amazing that a summer this ripe with terrorism is not working to the GOPs benefit Trump doesn't make people feel safe. nachos posted:jfc someone here yesterday was talking about eventually seeing a 52-32 poll and a loving day later a 48-33 comes out It's deffo the biggest gap yet, but Marist is a really good pollster.
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Aug 4, 2016 21:53
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TVarmy posted:I thought the Orlando shooting would turn it around for him, actually, until he went and showed he cared more about fomenting praise than mourning the victims. I mean, I'm sure it contributed to him narrowing the gap leading up to the RNC, but yeah, a competent candidate would have leveraged that much harder. Praise Allah, that's not what we're dealing with.
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Aug 4, 2016 21:53
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theflyingorc posted:...As Trump rapidly loses like 15 points in the polls, are we still harping on "NOTHING TOUCHES HIM"? But nothing matters, lol! *things mattering intensifies*
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Aug 4, 2016 21:53
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This Iran video snafu seems like Trump saw a potential headline in it yesterday and is simply trying to keep (a nonstory) in the news cycle, hence claiming "I saw the video, I swears it" over and over. Granted it's having the opposite effect and turning it from potential fodder against the Dems into yet another liability for him.
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Aug 4, 2016 21:53
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straight up brolic posted:if he punts the debates with a 5-10 point spread, he loses the election. He basically has to participate. Of course, this assumes that Trump is smart enough to understand this/care that all his staffers are yelling this at him. Which he...probably is. Probably. ...Maybe.
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Aug 4, 2016 21:54
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SquadronROE posted:. He's already a maverick and doesn't Play By Their Rules, so this won't result in anything bad happening to him. I think this past week has proven that exceptionally wrong
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Aug 4, 2016 21:54
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zoux posted:Trump doesn't make people feel safe. That, I think, is a big issue for Trump. He's banking on fear but not offering safety. Which could work if he was an entirely competent and capable candidate but he's loving up so often that he can't depend on being "the guy so together he can handle the scary situation."
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Aug 4, 2016 21:54
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TVarmy posted:There has to be some kind of limit in polls-only and polls-plus forecasts on FiveThirtyEight, right? Because this far out, there's still a big number of unknowns and possibilities. Like those charts on weather that shows a cone of where a hurricane could go, and a dark red cone of where it's most likely to go. Has Nate Silver ever said if there's a floor for this? Because as much as I'd bet for Clinton at this point, I admit there's still strange-rear end futures where she could lose. But it'd call for a Trump Pivot that keeps his base, Clinton loving up on unprecedented levels, and a series of horrible tragedies Trump could safely spin in his favor. I'm saying, we have to be near that floor, and we're considering the bit of the yellow cone where Hurricane Donny does a 180 degree turn and starts raining blood instead of water. That's why it's expressed as a percentage. EDIT: Mel Mudkiper posted:Considering his forecast jumped literally 30+ pts in a week there is definitely room for some skepticism One model did this, the others were much less drastic. Solkanar512 fucked around with this message at 21:57 on Aug 4, 2016 |
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Aug 4, 2016 21:55
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SquadronROE posted:He is literally going to find a way to weasel out of the debates, or send Pence to debate Clinton. He's already a maverick and doesn't Play By Their Rules, so this won't result in anything bad happening to him. Which would be worse than watching him rip Clinton's boot out his rear end on the debate stage. This is a really stupid idea. Thinking he'll bail on the debate that is.
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Aug 4, 2016 21:55
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Spiritus Nox posted:Of course, this assumes that Trump is smart enough to understand this/care that all his staffers are yelling this at him. Which he...probably is. Probably. ...Maybe. Exactly. He is too dense to actually understand, and there will still be a core of people who - despite all evidence to the contrary - will get into the voting booth and pull the (R) lever since "It's time to have a change and they get a chance." The current crop of voters grew up with the White House alternating party control, and they will seek comfort in that stability.
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Aug 4, 2016 21:56
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DemeaninDemon posted:Which would be worse than watching him rip Clinton's boot out his rear end on the debate stage. yeah if trump bails all hillary has to do is imply he's scared of strong women and bask in the twitter meltdown like all of trump's actions over the last 1.5 years are inexorably leading towards him being humiliated by a woman in front of the entire world and it is so good, so glorious
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Aug 4, 2016 21:56
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zoux posted:Trump doesn't make people feel safe. Oh I know, its hilarious how thing is another GOP bread and butter he completely failed on capitalizing on
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Aug 4, 2016 21:56
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Spiritus Nox posted:Of course, this assumes that Trump is smart enough to understand this/care that all his staffers are yelling this at him. Which he...probably is. Probably. ...Maybe. I don't think assuming Trump will listen to people yelling at him, or is smart enough to be more than tangentially in contact with reality, is really a safe assumption any longer.
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Aug 4, 2016 21:56
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Mel Mudkiper posted:Oh I know, its hilarious how thing is another GOP bread and butter he completely failed on capitalizing on Yeah it owns. Like they've completely vacated the Party of National Security position.
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Aug 4, 2016 21:56
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axeil posted:Uh Nobody's going to un-endorse Trump until it's politically safe and expedient to do so. If republicans were going to turn their backs on him for moral reasons or to save their dignity they would have done so a long time ago. Wait until he's solidly down 10-15 points with only a few weeks to go, that's when the rats will flee the sinking ship. zoux posted:New McClatchy/Marist poll has H48 T33 Oh hello
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Aug 4, 2016 21:56
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I think Trump won't skip the debate because he honestly thinks he will win
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Aug 4, 2016 21:57
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zoux posted:Yeah it owns. Like Cruz would already have FNC doing daily stories about "the summer of blood"
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Aug 4, 2016 21:58
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theflyingorc posted:...is your proposal that a law was passed in the United States, therefore it is a good law? Sounds like we need a Hillary staffer to point out his low energy on Twitter!
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Aug 4, 2016 21:59
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Per CNN, Trump is kicking out people holding pocket Constitutions. Which is ironic, given that used to be a Tea Party thing 
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Aug 4, 2016 21:59
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Mel Mudkiper posted:I think Trump won't skip the debate because he honestly thinks he will win Conveniently for him no matter how poorly he does he still won.
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Aug 4, 2016 21:59
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Mel Mudkiper posted:Like Cruz would already have FNC doing daily stories about "the summer of blood" Meanwhile Trump's like "oooh I wanna use nukes on somebody"
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Aug 4, 2016 21:59
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Mel Mudkiper posted:I think Trump won't skip the debate because he honestly thinks he will win Yeah, he probably thinks that he'll be able to beat Hillary and that will be the thing that will turn his numbers around. The only problem with that is Hillary gives zero fucks about unhinging her jaw and swallowing him whole while imagining he's any one of a thousand republicans that have made her life hell for the last 25+ years.
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Aug 4, 2016 22:00
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| # ? May 25, 2024 23:36 |
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In honour of the WWE Superstar winning his GOP primary this week, I would like to say that Donald Trump is basically 1994-2001 WCW re-written as a presidential candidate.
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Aug 4, 2016 22:00
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