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TheOneAndOnlyT posted:Were there ever any major news stories along the lines of "<candidate> is doing really poorly in the polls" in 2008 or 2012? I feel like the polls never got a large enough gap for that to happen. there were plenty of reports about polling in 08, and reports of candidates losing actually tends to shore up support and motivate the base, which is why candidates never, ever say "we got this in the bag", it's always "this is really close you guys" even when they're leading by a lot.
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Aug 4, 2016 23:56
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Spaced God posted:So, I've been thinking about something and I prooobably know the D&D hivemind has been too, so I'll throw it out there. Any time someone thinks the GOP is going to fall apart or be destroyed I have the same answer. No. I don't think it would happen. The Republican and Democratic parties both rely too much on each other to stay in power for either to exist while the other doesn't.
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Aug 4, 2016 23:56
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Bushiz posted:Manafort had been holding trump back from when he buttoned up the nomination until the convention, and then the Khan thing started, and his entire campaign seems to have given up, and Primary Trump is back in the game, saying whatever he feels like, whenever he feels like. In addition to the khan thing, he threw a baby out of one of his rallies, accepted a fake purple heart, and has, today, thrown people with pocket constitutions out of his rallies. It's a bad scene and it's spiraling downwards. It'll be interesting to see how much longer this can go on. My theory was that Trump blamed Manafort for his losing streak because of course it's not Trump's fault, but he can't publicly blame Manafort without losing that sweet Putin money. He's apparently re-contacted his old campaign manager against his family's wishes and is taking things into his own hands because of course the most perfect person to pull this out of the gutter is trump himself. Time for ~the art of the deal~ to work it's magic! *insults grieving parents, babies, invites Russia to hack political opponents, says his opponent caused 9/11* Flawless.  now that he's taking personal control, the only reason his approval ratings could be plummeting is fraud.
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Aug 4, 2016 23:56
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seiferguy posted:Samantha Bee has been on point the entire time. John Oliver has been, to an extent, too.
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Aug 4, 2016 23:58
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Those graphs are also the nowcast, which has no correction for things like convention bounces by design. The literal question it is asking is if the election was held tomorrow, who would win? So Trumps odds god jacked up by his convention bounce, and now Clinton's bounce is correcting for it. It's probably important to remember that the survey period for these polls was last weekend or early this week, so on top of Trump setting himself on fire in the media there is definitely some convention bounce for Clinton. What's more notable is that Clinton is now at nearly 75% percent in the polls plus forecast, which means that even accounting for a convention bounce, she has made up a lot of ground. The other great thing is that these polls are just now beginning to reflect the tire fire that was this week. So his meltdown yesterday will show up in a couple days, etc. Whats driving these more nuanced model is that the data seems to indicate that Hillary's bounce was much larger than Trumps, and that it is seeming to persist longer.
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Aug 4, 2016 23:59
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Dumb gently caress alt-right douche that pulled a gun on a BLM* protest in Portland indicted on 21 charges. 10 counts of unlawful use of a weapon (Class C felonies), 10 menacing (midemeanor) and 1 count of disorderly conduct. He says he had a CCL & a right to protect himself but... quote:Once Strickland was arrested, police found the loaded handgun with a round in the chamber of the gun, plus two magazines of ammunition in a belt pouch on his left side, two magazines in his front right pants pocket and one magazine in his left front pants pocket, Molina said. He also had a pocket knife in his right front pants pocket. He had a chambered round & 5 magazines besides the extended capacity one in the gun.  http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2016/08/grand_jury_returns_21-count_in.html * BLM in this instance meaning Black Lives Matter, not Bureau of Land Management because the Bundy trials will be upon us soon & we'll have different BLM protests (but you probably figured that out from context)
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Aug 4, 2016 23:59
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DemeaninDemon posted:Obama was doing pretty badly after the first debate.  It turns out that Pretty Talk Jones Obama needs a fresh intake of pure spite for fuel. He seems to become INCREDIBLE when he loving hates someone/something.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:01
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Stultus Maximus posted:The Khan family thing was the lead, but it was part of a whole barrage of ridiculous bullshit like the Putin ties, the "hey Russia, hack Clinton please" thing, his continued idiocy on foreign policy like not remembering that Russia already invaded Ukraine or repeatedly asking people why he can't just nuke ISIS. Plus the DNC had a pretty kickass convention. Part of the reason for Hillary's lead is an increase in favorability and other ratings. It's not just people being more against Trump, it's also more people being FOR Hillary.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:03
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Popular Thug Drink posted:if trump gets completely exhausted, flames out unspectacularly, and then just stays out of the public eye for a few days/weeks it will improve his chances There's no way this is sustainable, though. Eventually he will run out of ground to lose. What's the contingency for paul ryan strangling him in his sleep? Would pence automatically get bumped to the top of ticket? Is there even a pathway for removing trump from the ticket without him dying? TheOneAndOnlyT posted:Were there ever any major news stories along the lines of "<candidate> is doing really poorly in the polls" in 2008 or 2012? I feel like the polls never got a large enough gap for that to happen. Not really, because there's a compelling story in a close election that lets you cover it for months, so news organizations are incentivized to portray the election as close, even if it's one as lopsided as 2008, because there isn't a better story to tell. Now that we're shaping up to have, at least, the biggest blowout in a generation, if not a lifetime or the history of the country, the death spiral and landslide can be a better story than trying to portray this as a horse race.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:04
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botany posted:there were plenty of reports about polling in 08, and reports of candidates losing actually tends to shore up support and motivate the base, which is why candidates never, ever say "we got this in the bag", it's always "this is really close you guys" even when they're leading by a lot. If the campaign is good, the motivation boost goes both ways. I remember in 2008 the news that McCain was essentially pulling out of Michigan wasn't met in a decrease in Obama volunteers but an increase--sometimes a sense of impending victory can make supporters complacent, but it can also build a sense of jubilation and ease that makes people more willing to volunteer. Particularly once persuasion is done and you're more or less just talking to supporters and making sure that supporters show up, it can be really really fun to canvass for obviously successful candidates because it just turns into a giant series of gently caress yeahs and fist bumps on the doors and phones.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:05
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I remember reading a lot of pundits / news sites basically describing 2012 as neck-and-neck, and that we wouldn't know the results until it happened! Then Obama won every battleground state that he was expected to, republicantears.gif was created and all was right in the world. evil_bunnY posted:Seriously. Of all the daily show diaspora she's been the sharpest. I watched an interview on PBS with her. She essentially says that she stays out of the feedback loop, and in creating the show, they had a blind screening process for writers. They ended up hiring half women, and half men, which makes them somehow the most diverse news-writing room in all of late-night talk shows. I love everything about that woman.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:08
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gently caress 538, just look at a normal poll aggregate. 
Shimrra Jamaane fucked around with this message at 00:20 on Aug 5, 2016 |
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Aug 5, 2016 00:08
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Who does that stupid shitweasel that asked Obama if the election is rigged work for? Because goddamn.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:13
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Paradoxish posted:Republicans distancing themselves from Trump while yelling "not my Republican party!" bother me on a really base level. Like, gently caress you, assholes. You created this monster, and a ton of you are going to walk away from this disaster unscathed because there are plenty of voters who don't want to believe that this is their fault. "The enemy of my enemy is my ally". Democrats and an increasingly large number of Republicans realize just how much of a disaster a Trump presidency would be so Republicans are willing to defect and Democrats are willing to let them do so even if it's just a way for them to save face. I'm not so sure as to how quickly things will go back to normal though as there will likely be a lot of underlying conflict within the Republican party after this based on who stood with and who stood against Trump. We might also come out of this with the added benefit of many first-time voters not feeling some strange, overwhelming need to vote for their party's candidate for the sake of it; even if they end up voting for crazy people down the line, I think that's at least a step up from voting out of purely blind loyalty. As to Trump getting elected as the Republican representative in the first place, I would say it was more the fault of the Republican primary process itself than anything else. Between the 'winner take all/most' delegate rules for many of the states and the much lower superdelegate count, winning in a state has a much larger impact. It's easy to point a finger at Rubio and Cruz for splitting the bulk of the vote in most states between them instead of one of them backing down much sooner 'for the good of the party' while Trump was on the rise, but I also can't really picture Hillary or Bernie backing down in time for the sake of shutting out a distant threat. The media was also infatuated with Trump and gave him a ton of coverage; regardless of if the coverage was good or bad, his name was probably the only one many voters felt particularly familiar with when they went out to vote (never mind that people probably shouldn't be voting if they're not entirely sure on just what/who they're voting between). I disagree with the GOP on virtually every issue and Trump is very much a disaster of their own making, but an extremist con artist as the representative of the Democrats would be about as bad - the difference is that their larger ratio of superdelegates and the lack of 'winner take all' states virtually guarantees that such a dangerous person gets obliterated in the primaries even if they win a few states. In short, the main lesson the Republican party is likely going to take from all of this is a lesson in how to change around their primary so that the winner is at worst only their standard brand of awful and not Trump's special extra-strong brand of awfulness. If they somehow manage to pull out another Trump after that, that's when we'll likely actually see some big shifts in the party's platform.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:13
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Seeric posted:In short, the main lesson the Republican party is likely going to take from all of this is a lesson in how to change around their primary so that the winner is at worst only their standard brand of awful and not Trump's special extra-strong brand of awfulness. If they somehow manage to pull out another Trump after that, that's when we'll likely actually see some big shifts in the party's platform.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:16
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I really want to see Gary Johnson aggressively campaign in Utah. I think he'd legitimately have a shot at the state if he focused on it.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:18
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To the whole "Free trade y/n" thing a majig. From the perspective of a Brit, and a Brit who has only got a degree level qualification in a humanities at that, it's a bit saddening to see people going "Adapt or die" at people. I mean, why should they? Perhaps it is a conservative part of me but why should people be forced to change in order to satisfy other peoples desires for the world. Why is that a good thing? I mean changing perspectives and kindness and all that sort of thing I understand but basically going "You need to get out of our way and let us through, or you'll be ground to dust and it's your fault" makes me uneasy. I can understand how people would react badly to it. And to the person who seemed to be implying "well we need the dems need the support of unions, unfortunately, and so we have to say some stuff that we don't believe to keep them happy" just sounds loving monstrous to me. I mean I know that US unions in particular are frequently unbelievably poo poo but to say "you think you matter, fine throw a few things their way" just sounds so... callous.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:20
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As much as I would like to see a diverse field of political parties all representing different views so we could have proper political debates in this country we probably won't see anyone politically fracture. Losing during the 80s pushed dems to the right so the Republicans could politically realign. Since its pretty hard for them to go further right without literally becoming cartoon nazis then it'd be to the left. Losing big in the 30s and 40s and facing political irrelevance post WW2 pushed the Republicans to realign on some issues and create political dramas (ala benghazi) until they found one they could turn into a huge political storm to consume the nation. They did this first with China by going crazy on dems for not magically preserving somehow Chiang's weak corrupt government and then followed it into general red scare paranoia. Ironically using the dems winning WW2 in alliance with Stalin as a weakness.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:20
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Samurai Sanders posted:Other than not having shitheads as their most dedicated members, how would they accomplish this? Closing primaries, maybe introducing more caucuses, and delaying the point at which states move towards winner take all delegate allocations would increase the influence of movement conservatives and make it harder for an outsider candidate with a plurality to win the nomination. However, it would also make it harder to moderates to win, so they would end up with someone like Cruz in 2020.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:22
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SubponticatePoster posted:Who does that stupid shitweasel that asked Obama if the election is rigged work for? Because goddamn. The Associated Press
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Aug 5, 2016 00:24
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Glenn beck held some kind of hyperpatriot pop-up museum and talked about having barack obamas family album. He talked about his 2nd birthday and him wearing Muslim clothes. Obviously this is freep: the podcast and is full of terrors, but its possibly the creepiest thing i have witnessed in any media.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:25
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Josef bugman posted:From the perspective of a Brit, and a Brit who has only got a degree level qualification in a humanities at that, it's a bit saddening to see people going "Adapt or die" at people. I mean, why should they? Perhaps it is a conservative part of me but why should people be forced to change in order to satisfy other peoples desires for the world. Why is that a good thing? I mean changing perspectives and kindness and all that sort of thing I understand but basically going "You need to get out of our way and let us through, or you'll be ground to dust and it's your fault" makes me uneasy. I can understand how people would react badly to it. No one is saying this. The point is that these jobs can't be saved. You can fight against automation and globalization and I won't tell you that you're wrong to do it, but I will tell you that you're going to lose that fight and that nobody can change that outcome. It's tragic as gently caress that we're generally okay with sections of society being left behind because, at least for now, our economy can sustain it. Tilting at windmills isn't going to help, though.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:30
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Josef bugman posted:To the whole "Free trade y/n" thing a majig. you can't sail against the winds of change. The port of Rotterdam will be completely automated by 2020.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:32
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Paradoxish posted:The point is that these jobs can't be saved. You can fight against automation and globalization and I won't tell you that you're wrong to do it, but I will tell you that you're going to lose that fight and that nobody can change that outcome. This. If anything, we need to establish some sort of process for winding down a community that isn't economically sustainable anymore, because... well, poo poo, some of them aren't, and the people who are stuck there don't have the assets to independently finance their departure.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:33
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Josef bugman posted:To the whole "Free trade y/n" thing a majig. I mean, we're not telling them to adapt or die. Basic macroecon is. We're asking them to adapt and trying to formulate a plan to prevent them from dying, which is hard because it involves pushing back against the power of multinational businesses to oppose labor laws and environmentalism. At the end of the day though, if your job is no longer economically relevant and keeping it in place would be pointless, why should we? Not everyone needs to work and not everyone needs to do the same job their entire lives if that job is no longer necessary. If you have this deep emotional attachment to building widgets or mining rocks and refuse to move on, when those jobs are no longer needed in the US, what are we supposed to do about it? Democratic politicians shouldn't lie to their constituencies and Hillary opposing TPP is stupid and pointless. BI NOW said it better than I could in the previous thread. But it's important to realize that these people aren't being forced to change because leftists asked them to, their being asked to change at the behest of multinational business and globalization too powerful for us to control. No one said it's (necessarily) a good thing that their lives are being disrupted, it merely is the reality of the situation. People also just have an unhealthy attachment to work.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:34
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https://twitter.com/onthemedia/status/761284316299132928 I'm really surprised by this.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:34
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Vienna Circlejerk posted:https://twitter.com/onthemedia/status/761284316299132928 The media has finally moved on from horse race mode to blood in the water mode.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:36
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The media has smelled blood and has grown tired of Trump's repetitive bullshit. It's more profitable to now go in for the kill.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:37
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The solution to all these questions of trade is, as always, guaranteed minimum income.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:40
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I'm waiting till it starts reading "Trump lies about"
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Aug 5, 2016 00:41
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straight up brolic posted:take a look at the idiocy that's occurring in your own country if you want to know why protectionism is an effective political tool but an ineffective policy Ha! No-one, especially not the tories, is going to institute a protectionist policy in this country. Oh they will blovate about it, use it as an excuse to make sure that more brown people are hosed over etc, but they won't actually change anything. The "idiocy" as much as anything else is based on what people were given, even most of the people I know who did vote for it are just as confussed and unable to give reasons that weren't batshit. It wasn't a protectionist trade issue, it was a racial and "cultural" issue that is going to gently caress all of us, to a greater or lesser extent, over the next few decades. Paradoxish posted:No one is saying this. You see it sounds as if you are saying that. "You are going to lose and nobody can change it" is not something anyone wants to hear at the best of times. Least of all when it is being delivered as if it were a pronouncement from an old testement God. And it's not just "sections" of an economy, my entire countries economy is going to go into free fall in the next 5 years as the wanker bankers move out and the tech people with them. Until there is nothing left but lovely service jobs. If and when that happens I want people to come and say that we deserve this for our voting, I want people to look into the inevitable face of the cold and the hurt and say that it is simply a fact of life and it can't be changed. Will it be fair if and when your job gets taken by a machine or automated, does that make it fair and just because it increases the amount done? zoux posted:The solution to all these questions of trade is, as always, guaranteed minimum income. Like for not working? Because even then I doubt it. Nobody will ever put it in place and, as I have learned from working with old style working class people, the idea of work is too loving essential to peoples lives. Josef bugman fucked around with this message at 00:48 on Aug 5, 2016 |
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Aug 5, 2016 00:45
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:The media has smelled blood and has grown tired of Trump's repetitive bullshit. It's more profitable to now go in for the kill. Yeah, after several months of him being assholes to the news at large and to reporters on a personal level, they're fed up and probably want to get their stabs in as he goes down.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:46
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site posted:I'm waiting till it starts reading "Trump lies about" At the time I was surprised that they didn't use any of the usual softening language for the news.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:47
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Josef bugman posted:Ha! No-one, especially not the tories, is going to institute a protectionist policy in this country. Oh they will blovate about it, use it as an excuse to make sure that more brown people are hosed over etc, but they won't actually change anything. The "idiocy" as much as anything else is based on what people were given, even most of the people I know who did vote for it are just as confussed and unable to give reasons that weren't batshit. It wasn't a protectionist trade issue, it was a racial and "cultural" issue that is going to gently caress all of us, to a greater or lesser extent, over the next few decades. Maybe the prime minster will put it to a nationwide vote in order to pacify the extremists as a formality, and then...
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Aug 5, 2016 00:47
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zoux posted:The solution to all these questions of trade is, as always, guaranteed minimum income. I've also come to the conclusion that on a long enough timeline, that's the only solution. I just don't know if western society (read: American) could grow to accept it. Otherwise just invent jobs for people to do while all the real work is being done by 30% of the population so we could at least pretend to be hard-working and industrious. I wish more Americans saw work for what it was, as a means to an end, instead of the end itself. Of course I'm also not terribly smart and pulled all of that out of my rear end.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:48
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Protectionism is an economic tool and like other economic tools it is sometimes good and sometimes bad, depending on the situation. If you think protectionism is always bad you should read up on developing economies, especially the Asian Tigers and the emerging markets in South America.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:48
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FAUXTON posted:Yeah, after several months of him being assholes to the news at large and to reporters on a personal level, they're fed up and probably want to get their stabs in as he goes down. They've also spent the last 10 years desperately trying to be "neutral" to the point of absurdity and there's been absolutely zero payoff for their efforts -- liberals mock them for being garbage news institutions and republicans still scream and cry that they're part of the liberal mainstream media and their ratings are still in the toilet. Might as well finally give up and embrace it. (Or, at least, I hope that's what's happening.)
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Aug 5, 2016 00:49
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botany posted:Protectionism is an economic tool and like other economic tools it is sometimes good and sometimes bad, depending on the situation. If you think protectionism is always bad you should read up on developing economies, especially the Asian Tigers and the emerging markets in South America. True, plus the fact that it doesn't always help to have interconnectivity in the markets if it gets destabalised by people in another country futzing the numbers.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:50
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Lightning Knight posted:I mean, we're not telling them to adapt or die. Basic macroecon is. We're asking them to adapt and trying to formulate a plan to prevent them from dying, which is hard because it involves pushing back against the power of multinational businesses to oppose labor laws and environmentalism. At the end of the day though, if your job is no longer economically relevant and keeping it in place would be pointless, why should we? Not everyone needs to work and not everyone needs to do the same job their entire lives if that job is no longer necessary. If you have this deep emotional attachment to building widgets or mining rocks and refuse to move on, when those jobs are no longer needed in the US, what are we supposed to do about it? If it's impossible to fight multinational businesses, and we'd have to fight multinational businesses to implement labor laws and environmentalism, then we're just truly and inevitably hosed.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:52
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botany posted:Protectionism is an economic tool and like other economic tools it is sometimes good and sometimes bad, depending on the situation. If you think protectionism is always bad you should read up on developing economies, especially the Asian Tigers and the emerging markets in South America. Given the way that trade has made nations interdependent on each other I would say that while there can be instances of good protectionism those are far outweighed by all of the bad examples of protectionism. And yeah, a GMI is the only real long term solution... that or a post scarcity utopia.
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Aug 5, 2016 00:53
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