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thrawn527 posted:Forgive me for trying to analyze polls, a subject I am in no way qualified for. But is anyone concerned that the polls where Clinton generally does worst are the LV polls? Like, opinion is on her side, but enthusiasm is so low that not everyone polled is going to vote for her, but Trump stays steady? I had this same thought. Let's see where the LV polls are in the next few weeks That said: https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/762618191843627010 edit: this is just an RCP-like aggregate of recent polls: quote:he CNN Poll of Polls incorporating the results of six major polls -- all conducted after the party conventions concluded in late July -- finds Clinton with an average of 49% support to Trump's 39%.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:23
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inthesto posted:I'd actually like to hear these reasons Well, for one we do not have compulsory voting as in some places, so that cuts off 30-40% of the voters that don't give a gently caress and would vote erratically. These people don't tend to follow polling trends, but they also don't vote so it isn't really that big of a deal. Second, because we pretty much have a binary political system, it narrows down a lot of the slough. Third, we have a legitimate voting/counting system that results in fraud free election results. By fraud free I mean just in the ballot box count, not fraud in the campaign. Fourth, we have a ton of different independent groups conducting polling. For the best statistical analysis of a population, you need a truly random sample. But given the way people work, if you have an actual random and representative sample of a group, you can discern the choices of the group pretty easily. Because we have so many different polling bodies, this works to help remove selection bias. Basically we have a binary system and a large enough group of polls that the aggregate is really a random yet representative selection of the population.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:23
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Fix posted:They have not even started on her yet, you see. The economic rollout brought to you by Majority Steves... might... maybe... be the beginning. Unless it doesn't work. Steve Miller was instrumental in writing the campaign's long-term strategic plan.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:28
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Subterfrugal posted:Steve Miller was instrumental in writing the campaign's long-term strategic plan. Yep, exactly as I was guessing. 
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Aug 8, 2016 13:29
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So if this indie Republican goes anywhere, is he basically a kamikaze attempt to not win states where he runs, but just prevent Donald from winning?
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Aug 8, 2016 13:31
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Oh boy, another hyped theoretical Independent candidate, can't wait until he drops out in three days
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Aug 8, 2016 13:31
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It would be pretty funny to run a candidate just to steal Utah.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:32
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jon huntsman could win utah but not this dude. who the gently caress's gonna vote for this guy?
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Aug 8, 2016 13:32
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Okonner posted:Republicans: Oh god, what did we do? Trump never focuses on attacking Hillary! He keeps criticizing members of our party! Ooh, ooh, let's make another Republican run against him! That'll fix it! What did I miss this weekend? 
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Aug 8, 2016 13:33
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zen death robot posted:Hasnt this guy missed a ton of deadlines to get on state ballots? https://twitter.com/MajorCBS/status/762624474688720896 Wonder which battleground/meaningful states he can interfere in.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:33
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quote:McMullin is a BYU alum and sources close to his (likely) campaign plan to aggressively contest Utah. Ahahaha if he gets any traction he's going to give Utah to Hillary hahahahahaha.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:34
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Those geniuses at the GOPe have finally found the thing that will kill Trump stone dead, a BYU grad.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:35
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Piquai Souban posted:So if this indie Republican goes anywhere, is he basically a kamikaze attempt to not win states where he runs, but just prevent Donald from winning? Could it be an effort to avoid trump negatively affecting down ticket races?
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Aug 8, 2016 13:35
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i dont expect this to go anywjere but i do hope trump catches wind of it and dedicates a portion of todays speech to it
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Aug 8, 2016 13:35
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lmao if they run a kamikaze candidate to steal Utah. Mitt Romney is going to be endorsing him then. Trump is going to go ballistic.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:36
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But will he secure the key Robert Morrow endorsement
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Aug 8, 2016 13:36
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Hm. He's no David French.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:36
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trump's not gonna win and it's not because of some byu dork it's cause of this
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Aug 8, 2016 13:37
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renegade party renegade party renegade party
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Aug 8, 2016 13:36
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I want 24 more independent Republican candidates for the 24 states where someone else can still get on the ballot.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:39
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You can't draft someone who no one has ever heard of to be your Trump kamikaze candidate. Surely John Huntsman would be glad to take one for the team.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:39
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Zas posted:jon huntsman could win utah but not this dude. who the gently caress's gonna vote for this guy?
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Aug 8, 2016 13:40
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Slate Action posted:Oh boy, another hyped theoretical Independent candidate, can't wait until he drops out in three days And another no-name nobody too. Like David French, my initial response here is "Who?" Just more GOPe death throes. Give it up globalist scum. We won, you lost, the new GOP is the party of American Nationalism. Join the rest of the neocon scum, give up, and become Democrats.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:40
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im mcwith mcmullin!
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Aug 8, 2016 13:41
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Jeb! is back!
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Aug 8, 2016 13:41
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https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/762629674614845440
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Aug 8, 2016 13:42
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Frabba posted:Could it be an effort to avoid trump negatively affecting down ticket races? There is zero chance of it being anything else.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:42
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It's a long shot, but it's not as a long shot as say Trump winning NY or CA.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:43
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zen death robot posted:Worth it just to have Trump thrown off script and rant about the guy for a week lol that's a good point
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Aug 8, 2016 13:44
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This seems like a fun way to extort money out of the Trump campaign. "We got this guy who *could* gently caress you in an essential state. It would be a shame if we couldn't devote all our time and resources to his campaign because our completely separate direct-mail company suddenly got busy."
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Aug 8, 2016 13:44
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Wasting time and resources in places like Texas could come back to bite them. Just because you're beating Trump in the polls today and some swing states like Virginia seem safe today doesn't mean the race won't tighten again. But hey, by all means Clinton campaign, leave the door open for a Trump comeback by buying into the laughable notion that you could win states like Georgia or Texas.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:44
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Boosted_C5 posted:Wasting time and resources in places like Texas could come back to bite them. duchess
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Aug 8, 2016 13:45
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So Boosted, what are you hoping to hear in Trump's big economic speech today?
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Aug 8, 2016 13:46
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Jumpingmanjim posted:Jeb! is back! in pog form!
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Aug 8, 2016 13:46
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im mcwillin' to vote for mcmillan!
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Aug 8, 2016 13:49
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i mean mcmullin!!
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Aug 8, 2016 13:49
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Egg McMuffin 4 President
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Aug 8, 2016 13:50
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As a principled conservative I don't gotta be McMullen over my vote anymore!
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Aug 8, 2016 13:51
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The post-convention dip. 
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Aug 8, 2016 13:51
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