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FIRST TIME posted:Conservatives trying to spin that clown car GOP primary as being a positive thing for the party was as hilarious as it was pathetic. Man, that's got to be embarrassing. But I guess a degree of shamelessness is required to be that nakedly partisan.
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Aug 8, 2016 09:04
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Bashez posted:People seem to be going nuts over the diazepam and Hillary having seizures stuff. They're desperate for any controversy at all to offset Trump's garbage fire.
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Aug 8, 2016 09:16
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Grapplejack posted:Please don't burn people's private property, even if you think it's ugly tia.* 
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Aug 8, 2016 09:38
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Grapplejack posted:Please don't burn people's private property, even if you think it's ugly tia. People are very passionate. They're tremendously, tremendously passionate.
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Aug 8, 2016 09:45
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KittenofDoom posted:Is there anyone from the GOP primaries who'll still have a career after this? Nah, nobody's paying attention. They'll all treat their "endorsement w/ slight trepidation and hand-wringing" as doing as much as they could in the wake up a Trump nomination. Nobody will care that they were all cowards. This is the same way the GOP likes to re-write 2008 and 2012. "Oh we all knew Romney wasn't really a conservative..." "Oh we all knew McCain wasn't really a conservative.." They'll just say Trump wasn't a real conservative, but what're you gonna do, primary voters. Next cycle they'll claim to have chosen a true conservative and the cycle will repeat. edit: They did this with the entire GWB presidency when it turned out it was a mistake and he even won the election! There are people alive today who will tell you a conservative has not been on the ballot since Reagan*. *He was pro-amnesty, raised taxes, and made trades with Iran for hostages. ErIog fucked around with this message at 11:37 on Aug 8, 2016 |
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Aug 8, 2016 09:46
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^^ Some of them retconned GWB as 'not a true conservative' as well. T... time to leave? Ice Phisherman posted:I think what's one of the most awful and condescending things about the election is that Hillary is being hit with the cheating scandals of her husband as if she is some sort of extension of him even as a presidential hopeful. How dare she be cheated on? I think Trump earlier this year suggested Hillary enabled Bill to cheat, which the right clinged onto.
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Aug 8, 2016 09:51
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KittenofDoom posted:Is there anyone from the GOP primaries who'll still have a career after this? Rubio is about to get reelected to the Senate. Cruz and Kasich will both probably run for President in 2020. Some of them still have political careers.
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Aug 8, 2016 10:25
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Donkwich posted:
Hillary as a passive enabler (or even an active facilitator) of Bill's sex vices is an old thing that predates any of the more recent insanity. Scheming ambitious wife procures unsuspecting young lasses whose innocence may be sacrificed to the desires of her powerful husband, etc etc. Sorta one of the tropes that traditionally attaches to powerful women, like rumors of lesbianism or horse-loving
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Aug 8, 2016 10:59
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Spacebump posted:Rubio is about to get reelected to the Senate. Cruz and Kasich will both probably run for President in 2020. Some of them still have political careers.
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Aug 8, 2016 11:09
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Rubio just came out in favor of forcing women to spend thousands of dollars to bring nonviable Zika babies to term. This combined with his plan to do nothing about the disease and hope for the best may not help him in the coming months. On the other hand: Florida
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Aug 8, 2016 11:16
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Donkwich posted:^^ Some of them retconned GWB as 'not a true conservative' as well. This is a very good point which I am ashamed to have forgotten. Mad grats for pointing it out.
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Aug 8, 2016 11:38
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Donkwich posted:^^ Some of them retconned GWB as 'not a true conservative' as well. On the other hand it's very progressive of the GOP to keep opening up political opportunities to the mentally ill.
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Aug 8, 2016 12:10
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FilthyImp posted:That really depends on how the Trumpets are handled. Ted Cruz never attacked Trump's policies as much as he attacked Trump's personality. Remember that Cruz positioned himself to suck up Trump's base when the expected implosion happened. His argument is going to be the same as the Republicans always make, Donald Trump did not fail because of his policy proposals or "conservatism". Donald Trump himself failed us. Once Trump loses his backers will be looking for excuses, and the historic mud hole stomping that he's set to receive is going to favor Ted Cruz's narrative far more than Trump's hail mary "it was rigged!".
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Aug 8, 2016 12:15
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From July 25th: Antti posted:I posted six hours ago that the time to Arzy is if Trump is still ahead in two weeks and I'm gonna stick to that for now  Let this be a lesson for future generations.
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Aug 8, 2016 12:16
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I think Trump's convention bounce was as big as it was because the party was SO unconsolidated going into things. Hillary's bounce was probably a combo of a good convention and a ton of major Trump errors at a time when he looks extra incompetent purely by comparison
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Aug 8, 2016 12:28
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The fact that he didn't get a convention dip from that fear-mongering poo poo show is cause for concern, even if it appears now he at least will not be President. The American electorate is a mess.
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Aug 8, 2016 12:28
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Kilroy posted:The fact that he didn't get a convention dip from that fear-mongering poo poo show is cause for concern, even if it appears now he at least will not be President. The American electorate is a mess. This was why the post-RNC polls were freaking me out, I fully expected a convention dip as well because it was such a whirlwind of unforced errors and terrible optics. Anyway, here's hoping that Clinton's bounce actually sticks.
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Aug 8, 2016 12:30
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Antti posted:From July 25th:
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Aug 8, 2016 12:31
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Elmnt80 posted:Guys, I know you hate southern states and all, but there are some sane people here. Please don't leave me at the mercy of Governer Voldemort when a hurricane destroys everything I own because I like fishing and swimming in the gulf and don't want to deal with snow and salted roads. <3 I'm from Arkansas. I am painfully aware of what it's like to live where Republicans are desperate to break everything and voters are idiots who love bigots. Ages posted:Man, that's got to be embarrassing. You have no idea the depths of two-time Pulitzer Prize winner Mike Rameriez's shamelessness and immunity to facts. We're lucky he didn't label Biden with the word "DEBT" like he does everything else.
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Aug 8, 2016 12:34
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Samurai Sanders posted:The only lesson I'm getting from this election is that an ignorant blowhard rear end in a top hat virtuoso like Trump can still get like 30-40% of the country behind him, so long as there's an (R) after his name. I'm never going to look at the average guy on the street in America the same way again. Added some stuff. Though tribalist idiocy is still idiocy.
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Aug 8, 2016 12:35
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Antti posted:This was why the post-RNC polls were freaking me out, I fully expected a convention dip as well because it was such a whirlwind of unforced errors and terrible optics. Yup. Like not only was that convention creepy and authoritarian, it wasn't even run well. You had actually real politicians (and not just random BoBers) throwing their convention badges down in disgust after they hosed with rules. Then you have a parade of Z list celebrities and political nobodies which climaxed in Cruz going out of his way to snub Trump in the middle of his own nomination. The fact that he got a bump at all was really worrying after that poo poo show.
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Aug 8, 2016 12:36
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Samurai Sanders posted:The only lesson I'm getting from this election is that an ignorant blowhard rear end in a top hat virtuoso like Trump can still get like 30-40% of the country behind him. I'm never going to look at the average guy on the street in America the same way again. If nothing else has done it, this election proves that voters really don't pay attention to what's happening unless it's completely insane and are incredibly vulnerable to a conman. You could run a cardboard cutout that spews racist slogans when you pull a string and still get at least a third of the country supporting it.
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Aug 8, 2016 12:47
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JohnCompany posted:Added some stuff. Though tribalist idiocy is still idiocy. A lot of Trump's support isn't just checking the R box out of habit though, it's strong enthusiasm for Trump himself. A lot of (mostly old, white and male) Americans just like open race hate and fascism.
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Aug 8, 2016 12:47
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I had a dream last night where Hillary Clinton came by my house to offer to buy an old Civic I haven't owned in years for half a million dollars in order to look more like a "normal person", then crashed on our couch.
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Aug 8, 2016 12:49
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sean10mm posted:A lot of Trump's support isn't just checking the R box out of habit though, it's strong enthusiasm for Trump himself. A lot of (mostly old, white and male) Americans just like open race hate and fascism. Don't forget he young white male rear end in a top hat alt-right demographic. They love Trump because he seems like he hates all the things they do: women, minorities, and people who question their natural right to rule everything. Like the older demographic, but without the need for a coherent ideology behind the hatred.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:04
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Geostomp posted:Don't forget he young white male rear end in a top hat alt-right demographic. They love Trump because he seems like he hates all the things they do: women, minorities, and people who question their natural right to rule everything. Like the older demographic, but without the need for a coherent ideology behind the hatred. Even among white people Trump support is heavily biased towards the older people, fortunately. I think the only white demographic he consistently wins outright in polling is men 49+.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:18
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if you sort it white w/o college degree that's like where he lives
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Aug 8, 2016 13:19
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Geostomp posted:If nothing else has done it, this election proves that voters really don't pay attention to what's happening unless it's completely insane and are incredibly vulnerable to a conman. You could run a cardboard cutout that spews racist slogans when you pull a string and still get at least a third of the country supporting it. Decades of Fox News conditioning and willful ignorance have left them really vulnerable to straight-up conning. Trump isn't even a particularly good con-man(his only tricks are "Say he's going to pay you then doesn't" and "never say anything specific so people assign whatever motives they like best to you").
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Aug 8, 2016 13:22
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ColdPie posted:I had a dream last night where Hillary Clinton came by my house to offer to buy an old Civic I haven't owned in years for half a million dollars in order to look more like a "normal person", then crashed on our couch.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:25
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Zas posted:if you sort it white w/o college degree that's like where he lives The segment of the white 18-24 male demo who blame women and minorities for their dropping-out of school and their inability to find subsequent gainful employment.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:25
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Yinlock posted:Decades of Fox News conditioning and willful ignorance have left them really vulnerable to straight-up conning. Trump isn't even a particularly good con-man(his only tricks are "Say he's going to pay you then doesn't" and "never say anything specific so people assign whatever motives they like best to you"). Hell, I almost expect Trump to start hocking gold in commercials after he loses. The value can only go up, take it from a real winner. 
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Aug 8, 2016 13:27
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Also I'm kiiiinda looking forward to 2020 Cruz if only because I know he doesn't really have a chance and it'll bring me the joy of more gifs of Ted Cruz's family and friends being visibly repulsed by him.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:30
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I know we go through a lot of polls in this thread but the recent ABC/WaPo one asked some interesting questions about respondents' perceptions of the presidential candidates, so it may be worth going through in more detail. While going through these, bear in mind that the voting response on this poll was 48/42 between Clinton and Trump, and 45/37 between Clinton and Trump including Johnson and Stein. First let's get this out of the way, more than half Trump's support comes primarily from a dislike of Clinton whereas less than half of Clinton's support comes from a dislike of Trump, though the numbers are close.  Both Clinton and Trump are perceived as dishonest and untrustworthy, but she blows him away when it comes to other aspects of the job.  Comparing this result to voting intentions is very interesting since it seems like there's a group of potential Trump voters that don't think he's qualified, while a significant number of non-Clinton supporters still think she's qualified to be president. Looks like only the hardcore Clinton haters answer no to this question, understandably--she's insanely qualified.   Again, personality questions where Clinton blows Trump away. I especially like the honest/trustworthy one because it shows that, while people consider both candidates dishonest and untrustworthy, they think Trump is even worse on that front than Clinton.  Fully half of respondents are "very anxious" about a Trump presidency, and with a full 70% saying they're very or somewhat anxious, that's bad news for Trump. Could be a significant driver of voter turnout as well. Again, comparing to the voting intentions from before, it looks like some potential Trump voters are nevertheless anxious about a Trump presidency. If you break it down by party affiliation, Democrats responded 91% total, 79% very anxious; independents responded 69% total, 45% very anxious; and Republicans responded 40% total, 17% very anxious. On the other hand Democrats responded only 15% total, 5% very anxious about a Clinton presidency, compared to 88% total, 70% very anxious among Republicans and 60% total, 38% very anxious among independents. What's the lesson of those numbers? Democrats are much more comfortable with the idea of a Clinton presidency than Republicans are with a Trump presidency, and independents unsurprisingly hate everybody. But there's an opportunity here for Clinton to either depress Trump turnout among moderate Republicans, or even attract those voters the way she's been winning over national security endorsements. Following this there were a series of questions on who the respondent trusts more to handle a host of issues, and Clinton won every single one: the economy, terrorism, immigration, international crises, race relations, taxes, trade--on every single issue respondents trust Clinton more than Trump to deal with it, with winning margins ranging from 2% on the economy to 34% on race relations. It seems clear (to my interpretation at least) that she has a significant advantage over him in actual policy matters, but this is a race much more about personality than policy.  Finally, Clinton seems to have been successful in branding herself the optimism candidate, which was the entire message of the DNC and looks like it sank in. If Americans want an optimistic president, it looks like they'll choose Clinton. Usual caveats: one poll, three months out, blah blah blah. Still interesting imo. Poll is here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/08/07/National-Politics/Polling/release_435.xml?tid=a_inl vyelkin fucked around with this message at 13:50 on Aug 8, 2016 |
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Aug 8, 2016 13:33
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PS.Zas posted:if you sort it white w/o college degree that's like where he lives 
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Aug 8, 2016 13:35
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FAUXTON posted:The segment of the white 18-24 male demo who blame women and minorities for their dropping-out of school and their inability to find subsequent gainful employment. I suspect "white no college" and "white over 50" are strongly overlapping
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Aug 8, 2016 13:35
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the anxiety thing seems to be the story of the election at this point again for emphasis
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Aug 8, 2016 13:38
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Samurai Sanders posted:The only lesson I'm getting from this election is that an ignorant blowhard rear end in a top hat virtuoso like Trump can still get like 30-40% of the country behind him. I'm never going to look at the average guy on the street in America the same way again. It's not 30-40% of the country. It's the majority of white people, primarily white men, that are terrible people. If it were a nation that was 70-something percent black that were behind a candidate saying and doing the things Trump was about white people, no one here would have any problem saying the majority of black people in that country were terrible and wondering where the black leaders are to condemn this sort of thing, considering we see that argument used here whenever there's violence in the black community (ignoring all context and racism for centuries) or in Muslim countries that have backward rear end laws and leaders. I just want to know where the white leaders are that are condemning the majority of whites that are clearly terrible and wish we could return to the 1950s.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:40
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vyelkin posted:I know we go through a lot of polls in this thread but the recent ABC/WaPo one asked some interesting questions about respondents' perceptions of the presidential candidates, so it may be worth going through in more detail. Thanks for the effortpost. I rarely have time to drill down into polls like you just did, and I certainly don't have the expertise to construct any sort of narrative from the numbers. Did this poll give any sort of breakdown about how people answered the two questions above? Are there any people who think both candidates are qualified? Any who think neither?
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Aug 8, 2016 13:41
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Grundulum posted:Thanks for the effortpost. I rarely have time to drill down into polls like you just did, and I certainly don't have the expertise to construct any sort of narrative from the numbers.   Can't find a breakdown of these questions based on how people voted, but it's suspicious how much these numbers line up with each other. There's surely some overlap, but it looks an awful lot like the people who think one candidate is unqualified think the other one is qualified, i.e. Republicans who are self-justifying not voting for Trump are doing it by answering polls saying he's unqualified and Clinton is qualified, and vice versa. I would be hesitant of making this actual leap of logic without being able to see more into the poll, but flicking through the different filters WaPo lets you apply--party ID, ideology, race, sex, education, age, etc., the numbers keep lining up like almost perfect opposites of each other so I do think that's at least a part of what's happening on this particular question. Put another way, I can't find any demographic in which a majority thinks both Clinton and Trump are unqualified, or that thinks both of them are qualified.
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Aug 8, 2016 13:44
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 THIRD PARTY ALERT https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/762623063456448512 Too bad that it's too late for a good chunk of ballots: https://twitter.com/MajorCBS/status/762624474688720896
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Aug 8, 2016 13:47
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