|
haveblue posted:How can elections be real if our polls aren't real? elections, what a concept elections, how do they work?
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 18:52
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 06:40 |
|
|
karlor posted:elections, what a concept What are elections? We just don't know.
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 18:54
|
|
|
theblackw0lf posted:What are elections? We just don't know. I think we need to stop having elections until we can figure out what the hell is going on!
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 18:55
|
|
|
What if Trump is calling the election rigged... because the communists are planning a massive hack attack on e-day?
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 18:57
|
|
|
karlor posted:elections, how do they work? 2 parties enter, 1 candidate leaves
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 18:58
|
|
|
Petr posted:https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/762497721831874561 Imagine the fuel gauge doesn't exist. Show me any evidence we're going to need gas.
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:03
|
|
|
Kilroy posted:I guess I agree, but it didn't seem like "really interesting plot" was supposed to be the selling point. As long as it holds its own enough not to distract from the few scenes in the movie designed to deliver emotional bodyblows to the viewer, the plot has basically done its job. I know I'm late to this, but the screenplay (which you can buy) is a work of art; it's director Ridley Scott's execution of the film that ruins it. In my opinion, anyway; maybe I'm just disappointed that all of the carefully plotted scenes and dialogue I liked in the screenplay were cut from the actual film.
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:06
|
|
|
My Imaginary GF posted:2 parties enter, 1 candidate leaves Pretty confident abuela could take Drumpf. His hands are too small to grip properly, see.
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:06
|
|
|
538.com just updated its Nowcast. This almost certainly won't actually happen, but it's still fun to imagine
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:10
|
|
|
I'm aware. Hence why I can't wait to move far away from here  Michigan will go Clinton, but will never not go Republican in local/state stuff. It's the worst. edit: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/762649765687365633 
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:12
|
|
|
Where's a good place To go to see if Trump has said or done anything that should sink a normal candidate in the past hour or so? Also, 538 is now saying GA and AZ is leaning Clinton.
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:13
|
|
|
DaveWoo posted:538.com just updated its Nowcast. 
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:15
|
|
|
BigRed0427 posted:Where's a good place To go to see if Trump has said or done anything that should sink a normal candidate in the past hour or so? https://twitter.com/esembrat/lists/tiny-hands-feelers twitter list made by one of the GOP thread posters with a bunch of journalists and GOP twitter heads
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:15
|
|
|
BigRed0427 posted:Where's a good place To go to see if Trump has said or done anything that should sink a normal candidate in the past hour or so?
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:15
|
|
|
Forecasts are now at the point where Trump having any odds at all has less to do with his performance, and more to do with the theoretical principle that the race could shift. It's not so much "He's doing well with a particular core and that gives him a 15% chance". It's more "Well, there's 91 days left and hypothetically Hillary might eat a baby on national TV in that time."
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:16
|
|
|
DaveWoo posted:538.com just updated its Nowcast. This is madness, and I love it. God bless election years. Polls-Plus is creeping closer to an 80% chance of a Hillary win, too. Crows Turn Off posted:Check his Twitter account. His economic speech in Detroit was apparently a protestor-fueled circus, so hopefully we will get some prime Trump today. Ages fucked around with this message at 19:20 on Aug 8, 2016 |
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:16
|
|
|
The "Who would win today" tracker is extremely pleasant to look at, but it is really just a reflection of who would probably win right here, right now, based on these numerous double digit leads Abuela constantly has. Polls only tracker is a bit more reliable, and yet I believe Polls plus is actually Silver's "main" model. That's the one I rely on the most, even if AZ and GA are nowhere close to flipping on that one and so the model is not as exciting. Clinton still has a 78% shot right now even in this model and Obama never had such a chance in 2012 this early. It's probably been brought up here before, but Clinton had a 7.0% lead on RCP's Poll Average before the Monmouth poll came out. Obama never had that kind of lead over Romney and had one once over McCain. Fabulous Knight fucked around with this message at 19:21 on Aug 8, 2016 |
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:18
|
|
|
Supercar Gautier posted:Forecasts are now at the point where Trump having any odds at all has less to do with his performance, and more to do with the theoretical principle that the race could shift. Yep. Today has been a further sinking in the polls when you would expect, in a normal campaign, to see them tightening back up again after any convention-related bumps fade
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:18
|
|
|
haveblue posted:How can elections be real if our polls aren't real?
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:20
|
|
|
DaveWoo posted:538.com just updated its Nowcast. It's encouraging me to vote. I never thought that there would even be a chance of SC going blue.
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:24
|
|
|
Casimir Radon posted:That sounds like something Jaden Smith would say. 
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:24
|
|
|
Ice Phisherman posted:It's encouraging me to vote. I never thought that there would even be a chance of SC going blue. Before you get too hype, these are based solely on modelling, there hasn't been any polling done in SC this year.
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:25
|
|
|
Casimir Radon posted:That sounds like something Jaden Smith would say. are you a political cartoonist
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:25
|
|
|
I listened to (most of) Trump's speech today and what struck me about it aside from the actual content, was how boring and gutless he sounded. I think he's put himself in a real pickle because what has won Trump so much support amongst his fan base is exactly the "gently caress YOU I'M THE DONALD AND I TELL IT LIKE IT IS...LOUDLY!" theatrics. This more toned-down, responsible Trump may appeal to some theoretical moderates and undecided voters but I could easily see his hardcore fans getting angry that he's given in to the "establishment" types who have begged him to be less brash. Granted, it's not like those voters will turn around and vote for Clinton but I could see them staying home and just not voting. So he may pick up a few undecided votes but lose some base votes. Like I said, I think he's in pickle.
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:29
|
|
|
Fabulous Knight posted:The "Who would win today" tracker is extremely pleasant to look at, but it is really just a reflection of who would probably win right here, right now, based on these numerous double digit leads Abuela constantly has. Polls only tracker is a bit more reliable, and yet I believe Polls plus is actually Silver's "main" model. That's the one I rely on the most, even if AZ and GA are nowhere close to flipping on that one and so the model is not as exciting. Clinton still has a 78% shot right now even in this model and Obama never had such a chance in 2012 this early. My question about the "Polls Plus" is that since it relies on the addition of 538's secret sauce, and includes historical analysis in its algo, is whether the historical analysis used is granular enough to accurately factor in the disruption within the GOP this cycle. I mean, if their historical inputs rely on assumptions that the parties coalesce and unify around their candidate and continue to do so as the time delta goes to zero, is that an assumption that can be reasonably applied to this election, or is Trump creating ahistorical volatility among the Republicans outside of the safest core? That WaPo poll posted several pages back, and the huge disparities between "is Clinton/Trump qualified" and "Does Clinton/Trump have the temperament to be President", etc. would indicate to me that while someone could nominally say they're voting for Trump when asked directly, the key story may be that the motivation to expend the effort needed to do so is being consistently undermined.
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:30
|
|
|
zoux posted:Before you get too hype, these are based solely on modelling, there hasn't been any polling done in SC this year. Doesn't matter. It's heartening. May as well do it. I've registered to vote several times (mostly for local initiatives) and have been denied each time as the state said I was not registered to vote. At least twice, maybe three times. Can't remember. I'll mail my vote in so I'm not standing in line all day. It'll be fun.
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:30
|
|
|
Xarthor posted:I listened to (most of) Trump's speech today and what struck me about it aside from the actual content, was how boring and gutless he sounded. I think he's put himself in a real pickle because what has won Trump so much support amongst his fan base is exactly the "gently caress YOU I'M THE DONALD AND I TELL IT LIKE IT IS...LOUDLY!" theatrics. This more toned-down, responsible Trump may appeal to some theoretical moderates and undecided voters but I could easily see his hardcore fans getting angry that he's given in to the "establishment" types who have begged him to be less brash. Granted, it's not like those voters will turn around and vote for Clinton but I could see them staying home and just not voting. So he may pick up a few undecided votes but lose some base votes. yeah he was low-energy reading from a teleprompter almost the whole time
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:31
|
|
|
Dirt posted:I'm aware. Hence why I can't wait to move far away from here https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/762660455374393344
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:31
|
|
|
Xarthor posted:Like I said, I think he's in pickle.
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:31
|
|
|
The argument against the polling number is just another dellusion about the GOP's supposed silent majority that doesn't exist.
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:32
|
|
|
So I have a question. Trump seems to be funneling boatloads of money to himself and spending little if any of it on the actual campaign. What are the social, economic and legal repercussions for this?
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:33
|
|
|
Yeah, South Carolina has fewer swing voters than almost anywhere else: (That article is from 2012, so some of those rankings may be out of date, but there haven't been any big demographic changes in SC that I know of)
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:34
|
|
|
Politics in SC are so rigidly tied to race that I can't see it changing anytime soon.
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:36
|
|
|
This is the rationale. Like I said, the last GE poll for SC was in November. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/762718991022379008?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:40
|
|
|
yoctoontologist posted:Yeah, South Carolina has fewer swing voters than almost anywhere else: Man yeah. looking at that chart I can't help but wonder if there is a correlation between swing voting and how many brown people are in that specific state.
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:40
|
|
|
Trump's like -30 college educated white women, that's where all these state's are coming into play. Romney won them by 15% or so last time around.
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:41
|
|
|
zoux posted:https://twitter.com/SouthLoneStar/status/762355369855311873 lmao holy poo poo "gently caress whitey" is the deadest give away that this was done by a white person.
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:43
|
|
|
Scent of Worf posted:lmao holy poo poo White passersby were condemned as "jive turkeys"
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:44
|
|
|
Dexo posted:Man yeah. looking at that chart I can't help but wonder if there is a correlation between swing voting and how many brown people are in that specific state. There 100% is, actually. In Southern states, the larger the percentage of the population that is black, the more solidly Republican the white voters tend to be. I was messing around with election data a few weeks ago, and found that Mississippi and South Carolina consistently vary less from election to election than the rest of the country. (Alabama is different, in that it's actually been trending way more Republican relative to the rest of the country. I suspect this is because of northern Alabama, which isn't really part of the same cultural region as the rest of the Deep South.)
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:44
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 06:40 |
|
|
zoux posted:Trump's like -30 college educated white women, that's where all these state's are coming into play. Romney won them by 15% or so last time around. How's he doing with non-college educated women? Still worse than good old Binders?
|
|
#
?
Aug 8, 2016 19:45
|
|
