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MrSargent posted:I think it's fair to say that Maclin's ceiling is not his first season on a new team, new offense, and new QB. I really can't see Moncrief's ceiling as the #2 option being much, if any higher than Maclin's as the #1 option. But yes there is a difference in ADP of about a round right which makes it closer. I don't think you can call this a mid-round pick, the 3rd-4th is still pretty early. I like solid starters at that ADP personally, ill go riskier in the 6th+. Moncriefs ADP is 55th overall (fantasy pros standard) right now which puts him in the 5th round for 12 teams but I guess he would be 4th in a ppr. I project him to be a 1100 and 10 td player this year if Luck makes it through the season. Green Gloves fucked around with this message at 00:03 on Aug 9, 2016 |
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Aug 9, 2016 00:01
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VietCampo posted:I'm actually thinking that Moncrief might end up the #1 option over TY Hilton this year. Am i crazy? Yah this is crazy. TY was still WR21 last year with the corpse of Hasselback and Freeman throwing to him for most of the season. Moncrief was WR39. I am genuinely curious why you expect Moncrief to supplant TY, especially since TY is only 26.
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Aug 9, 2016 00:50
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MrSargent posted:Yah this is crazy. TY was still WR21 last year with the corpse of Hasselback and Freeman throwing to him for most of the season. Moncrief was WR39. I am genuinely curious why you expect Moncrief to supplant TY, especially since TY is only 26. Nothing concrete really, just my own thinking off small sample of last season. Where in the games that Luck played, Moncrief only had like 10 less targets than Hilton, but he also had more TD's. I would think after the loss of Andre Johnson and Fleener, Moncrief would be the one to benefit more than a speedster like Hilton. I'm just thinking Moncrief may score more points than Hilton this year. Though with Luck back, i'm high on both of them and would draft both if at the right spot. VietCampo fucked around with this message at 01:01 on Aug 9, 2016 |
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Aug 9, 2016 00:58
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MrSargent posted:Yah this is crazy. TY was still WR21 last year with the corpse of Hasselback and Freeman throwing to him for most of the season. Moncrief was WR39. I am genuinely curious why you expect Moncrief to supplant TY, especially since TY is only 26. Moncrief is currently being super hyped in the dynasty crowd, fwiw. It isn't unusual to see Moncrief drafted before Hilton, and while his age plays a role, people are expecting Moncrief to challenge Hilton as the top WR as early as this year. Common evidence used is Moncrief catching a TD and/or some yardage every game with Luck last year, and Harmon's reception perception piece on him.
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Aug 9, 2016 01:02
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Green Gloves posted:Moncriefs ADP is 55th overall (fantasy pros standard) right now which puts him in the 5th round for 12 teams but I guess he would be 4th in a ppr. Even 5th round you are still picking starters, where I tend to make safer picks. And yah I was looking at PPR ADP, which has Doug Baldwin going about the same time as Moncrief and I would rather have Baldwin every time. In PPR, he is going late 4th, early 5th and I don't see that dropping. I think Moncrief will be good, but expecting him to have his first season over 1k yards and 4 more TD's than last year is expecting a bit too much from him.
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Aug 9, 2016 01:03
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Taking Baldwin at his current adp is a suckers move
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Aug 9, 2016 01:12
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Papes posted:Taking Baldwin at his current adp is a suckers move This too
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Aug 9, 2016 01:15
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Papes posted:Taking Baldwin at his current adp is a suckers move *circles post and taps it repeatedly and fervently*
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Aug 9, 2016 01:23
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Teemu Pokemon posted:don't pay for last year's production you clods
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Aug 9, 2016 01:24
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So, I'm in a 12 man 0.3 PPR (yeah) league. 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR Flex, 1 K, 1 DEF. I'm picking 11th out of 12 and it's THIS Sunday. I bought a subscription to Rotoviz and I'm really liking it so far. The place does preach a zero RB strategy and I've been getting behind that a lot in my other leagues (I pick 3rd and 4th in those). BUT], I've been messing around with their Draft Optimizer app and have had some interesting results. It's actually recommending the opposite approach being at the end of the 1st round. Instead recommending going RB-RB-RB-RB or WR-RB-RB-RB. Once I got it to show RB-RB-WR-RB. And then picking a QB in the 5th. Usually, with the 11th pick, it recommends the likely combos of: Option A 1st - Lamar Miller 2nd - Jamaal Charles 3rd - CJ Anderson 4th - Matt Forte 5th - Russell Wilson Option B 1st - Jordy Nelson 2nd - Jamaal Charles 3rd - CJ Anderson/Dion Lewis 4th - Matt Forte 5th - Russell Wilson Option C 1st - Lamar Miller 2nd - Jamaal Charles 3rd - Jeremy Maclin 4th - Matt Forte The first option seems insane, because you can only start 3 RBs. So it's just hedging your RB bet. But...I dunno.. I've been planning on going WR heavy in most of my leagues in the first 3-4 rounds. But, with the very popular strategy of going zero RB that's gone mainstream this year (after the RBpocalypse of 2015 and the fact that top round RBs getting serious injuries is 30% higher than top round WRs)....it's setting up somebody in a lot of leagues to reap the benefits of everybody passing on RBs and reaching on some WRs. Perhaps this is actually a viable strategy for those with super late draft picks? WRs to target with this possible strategy: Jarvis Landry (possible) Jeremy Maclin Donte Moncrief Emmanuel Sanders John Brown Devante Parker Tyler Lockett Allen Hurns Torrey Smith Stefon Diggs Devin Funchess Rishard Matthews
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Aug 9, 2016 01:38
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89 posted:So, I'm in a 12 man 0.3 PPR (yeah) league. 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR Flex, 1 K, 1 DEF. I'm picking 11th out of 12 and it's THIS Sunday. I bought a subscription to Rotoviz and I'm really liking it so far. The place does preach a zero RB strategy and I've been getting behind that a lot in my other leagues (I pick 3rd and 4th in those). BUT], I've been messing around with their Draft Optimizer app and have had some interesting results. First of all how many of those guys do you actually like or you have to have on your team. I like the 2nd option the most. Although Jordy and Charles is a bit risky considering their injury problems. How about Marshall and Charles? I hope CJ can get back on track in Kubiaks zone system but I am staying away from him. If he gets hurt or sucks watch out for Devontae Booker.
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Aug 9, 2016 04:45
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Papes posted:Taking Baldwin at his current adp is a suckers move https://twitter.com/PFF/status/730031182994378752
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Aug 9, 2016 04:52
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Yeah, wasn't Baldwin pretty insane the last half of the season? I really don't think he's a flash in the pan, maybe he's a little overpriced but he's probably going to be a WR2ish player?
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Aug 9, 2016 04:55
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I assembled a list of possible impact rookies this year and got this: QB Carson Wentz Jared Goff Paxton Lynch Christian Hackenberg Jacoby Brissett RB Ezekiel Elliot Derrick Henry Kenneth Dixon Paul Perkins Jordan Howard C.J. Prosise Devontae Booker WR Corey Coleman Sterling Shepard Josh Doctson Laquon Treadwell Will Fuller Tyler Boyd Kevin White (kinda) TE Hunter Henry Austin Hooper Nick Vannett David Morgan Jerell Adams Rico Gathers Am I missing anyone?
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Aug 9, 2016 04:57
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I think you'd regret not taking at least 1 wr in the first 3 rounds. Something like option B loss best to me. Dez/Jordy Jamaal Charles Lewis/TY/Cobb Forte/Hyde Wouldn't hurt to still nab Lockette, Bruce Ellington, Snead, Dorsett, or Coates late though for more WR upside. Getting wr value of the ww is way harder than getting rb, qb, or te mid season.
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Aug 9, 2016 04:58
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Doltos posted:I assembled a list of possible impact rookies this year and got this: Tajae https://www.instagram.com/p/BI3q4udgdjQ/ sharpe
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Aug 9, 2016 04:59
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Teemu Pokemon posted:
Am I reading something wrong or do BeerSheets have Baldwin going mid 5th in 12 team 0.5PPR? That doesn't seem too high for him but maybe I am missing something. Who else do you like around that ADP?
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Aug 9, 2016 05:00
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Doltos you just posted a list with six rookie tight ends and Christian Hackenberg. In the fantasy thread. What is this a list of? In any case I posted a big board of the to 50 or so rookies a few pages back if you think you forgot somebody.
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Aug 9, 2016 05:03
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Doug Baldwin was the main beneficiary of Russell Wilson turning into a red zone and especially inside the ten golden god.
Spoeank fucked around with this message at 05:06 on Aug 9, 2016 |
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Aug 9, 2016 05:03
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Doltos posted:I assembled a list of possible impact rookies this year and got this:
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Aug 9, 2016 05:06
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Spoeank posted:Doug Baldwin was the main beneficiary of Russell Wilson turning into a red zone and especially inside the ten golden god. Yes, but I still think he gets the same if not more yardage next year. Even cutting his TD's to 6 (with upside) makes him worth a mid 5th right?
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Aug 9, 2016 05:08
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MrSargent posted:Yes, but I still think he gets the same if not more yardage next year. Even cutting his TD's to 6 (with upside) makes him worth a mid 5th right?
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Aug 9, 2016 05:30
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Metapod posted:Tajae https://www.instagram.com/p/BI3q4udgdjQ/ sharpe This. Unless you're in a league with me, in which case this guy sucks and you should draft literally any other rookie WR.
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Aug 9, 2016 05:31
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Forever_Peace posted:Doltos you just posted a list with six rookie tight ends and Christian Hackenberg. Believe it or not a bunch of there's enough lovely TE situations out there in the NFL that rookies may actually see play. Also I just checked out your dynasty rankings. That's drat good work.
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Aug 9, 2016 05:49
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Honestly, I'd feel confident with a WR core (starting 2) of something like Larry Fitzgerald/Jordan Matthews, John Brown, Tyler Lockett, Torrey Smith/Stefon Diggs, and Devin Funchess if my starting RBs + Flex are something like Jamaal Charles/LeVeon Bell/Matt Forte. Chip sucked baaaaad with running the ball last year. Kaep/Gabbert is gonna throw 40+ times a game. Hello, Torrey Smith.
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Aug 9, 2016 06:14
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Doltos posted:Believe it or not a bunch of there's enough lovely TE situations out there in the NFL that rookies may actually see play. I mean  and Clayton and Evans aren't even TEs!
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Aug 9, 2016 06:20
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Also, who actually feels comfortable spending their first round pick (early to mid) on David Johnson? It's just hard to get behind the idea of a one year wonder. I mean, part of me would even prefer a Jamaal Charles/LeVeon Bell (with the suspension) stack to a David Johnson/Lamar Miller one.
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Aug 9, 2016 06:32
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As a David Johnson fan since day 1 I raise my hand
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Aug 9, 2016 06:33
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David Johnson is a really talented back though. I watched a lot of his videos on draft breakdown before last season and was very impressed. Aside from a lack of history what is there to hate about Johnson's game? I mean theres a lot of flaws going with Charles and Bell as well. Both are coming off injuries for instance. I love Johnson Gurley but I like to minimize risk in the 1st so I am not taking them. I would gladly take an rb like Freeman end of 1st early 2nd and still get a top end WR. I also dont buy into Coleman. He lacks lateral agility and the vision that Freeman has. Hes no threat to Freemans job. Coleman being more involved probably is just 100 carries. Freeman is a complete back that can play on every down if needed. Green Gloves fucked around with this message at 07:19 on Aug 9, 2016 |
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Aug 9, 2016 07:09
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Freeman cooled down an awful lot as the season went on.
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Aug 9, 2016 07:18
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89 posted:Freeman cooled down an awful lot as the season went on. The pace he was at was historic you had to expect some regression. Cant deny that the man has a lot of good football skills.
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Aug 9, 2016 07:21
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89 posted:Also, who actually feels comfortable spending their first round pick (early to mid) on David Johnson? I'd feel very comfortable with doing that, maybe even as high as 4? Behind Brown, OBJ, Gurley? I'm planning on spending up to 20-25% of my auction budget on him in leagues where I can this year, so whatever that translates to in Regular drafts. In all fairness, I've been high on him since he came out of college, and championed him as a high rookie pick last year too, so there's that... Edit: As far as reasons why: He's a beast, breaks big plays (although sometimes he dances a bit too much looking to break that play), has tremendous upper body strength (you're not arm-tackling him), excellent receiver out of the backfield and Arians does utilize his RB's in the passing game, and his only competition is an ancient Chris Johnson and a less talented, fragile Andre Ellington. Nevhix fucked around with this message at 08:07 on Aug 9, 2016 |
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Aug 9, 2016 08:05
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So I ended up with the 1st pick in my main league where I am the commissioner and defending champion. After doing a few mocks, I really don't like drafting from this position. The mocks probably aren't the best indicator but at some point, 12 Tight Ends were taken by the 9th round or something ludicrous. Should I try to swap out for a mid pick? Thinking 4-7
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Aug 9, 2016 08:07
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[quote="89" post=""462988229"]Hello, Torrey Smith. [/quote]  no thank you.
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Aug 9, 2016 12:49
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89 posted:Also, who actually feels comfortable spending their first round pick (early to mid) on David Johnson? I feel like Lamar Miller is the only RB I'm comfortable taking in the first, his biggest issue last year was the Dolphins' bizarre playcalling and Houston seems like the perfect fit.
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Aug 9, 2016 13:05
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MrSargent posted:So I ended up with the 1st pick in my main league where I am the commissioner and defending champion. After doing a few mocks, I really don't like drafting from this position. The mocks probably aren't the best indicator but at some point, 12 Tight Ends were taken by the 9th round or something ludicrous. Yeah I've actually kind have been liking the 3-4 spot. At 6/7 your 1st round pick always feels like a reach - AP, David Johnson, Dez, AJ Green etc. But for fun, here's how my idea of a good draft at the 1 spot would hopefully go, assuming a 12-team ppr. Rnd 1: Antonio Brown Rnd 2/3: Ideal falls: Jamaal Charles, Jordy, Alshon. Likely picks: Ingram/TY/Lacy/Demaryius. Rnd 4/5: Ideal falls: Dion Lewis, Maclin, ARodg Likely Picks: Hyde, Woodhead, Larry Fitzgerald, Foster Rnd 6/7: Ideal falls: Ryan Mathews, Delanie Walker, Coby Fleener Likely Picks: Tyler Lockett, Ameer Abdullah, Jeremy Hill, John Brown, Kevin White Rnd 8/9: Ideal Falls: Charles Sims Likely Picks: Tevin Coleman, Willie Snead, Bilal Powell Rnd 10/11: Ideal Falls: Kamar Aiken, CJ Prosise, Tony Romo Likely Picks: Sammie Coates, DeAndre Washington, Mohamed Sanu, Phillip Dorsett Rnd 12/13: Ideal Falls: Matt Ryan, Kenneth Dixon, Tyrod Taylor, Dwayne Allen Likely Picks: McKinnon, Ebron, Bruce Ellington Likely possible starters: QB: Ryan/Tyrod/Winston RB1: Ingram/Lacy RB2: Hyde/Woodhead/Foster WR1: Antonio Brown WR2: TY/Demaryius TE: Ebron Bench: Something like Lockett/Abdullah/Coleman/Bilal/Coates/Sanu/Ellington Dream Draft where everything falls right: QB: ARodg RB1: Jamaal RB2: Dion Lewis WR1: Antonio Brown WR2: Alshon TE: Coby Fleener For how often you'd probably be missing out on QBs and TEs on the 1 spot, I'm not really sure how much I like either the likely RB2s or the likely WR2s unless you snare one of Lewis or Alshon.
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Aug 9, 2016 13:09
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Well, Hilton and DT at least have WR1 upside and WR2 floor. Hard to get a better WR2 than that. But agreed on that RB2 being shaky, and QB and TE uninspiring.
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Aug 9, 2016 13:45
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LmaoTheKid posted:
Look at the kid lmaoing someone who's gonna get 125+ targets who is going in double digit rounds.
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Aug 9, 2016 14:16
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89 posted:Also, who actually feels comfortable spending their first round pick (early to mid) on David Johnson? I honestly like the Johnson/Miller stack. Johnson was an absolute monster last year when he got the ball, an dis in no worse of an injury/timeshare position than Charles. And Miller has a real chance to shine now that hes out from under the awful Dolphins coaching staff (though teams are just going to stack the box probably). That changes if Leveon doesn't get suspended. I'm also a Charles truther and love him in the second round. As for DJ, I have him for a 13th so I think I have tremendous value on him  In fact, I'd love to end up with DJ/JC as my RBs this year.Spoeank posted:Look at the kid lmaoing someone who's gonna get 125+ targets who is going in double digit rounds. How many of those targets is he going to drop?
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Aug 9, 2016 14:29
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How much different is a ppr league It seems really different
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