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Lutha Mahtin posted:It would be pretty gross to offer a direct financial payout upon the death of someone. especially "unpopular" politicians like Trump and Clinton, like can you even imagine how the PI comment sections would go off the rails about conspiracy theories and predictions that one of them might get assassinated? gently caress Doesn’t the market resolve to “NO” in the event of the candidate’s death? A dead person cannot make a withdrawal announcement. So the rules don’t really solve that problem.
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Aug 5, 2016 05:42
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Platystemon posted:Doesn’t the market resolve to “NO” in the event of the candidate’s death? A dead person cannot make a withdrawal announcement. I see what you're saying, with the rules as written offering incentive to ensure a NO resolution via timely demise. It's somewhat vaguely worded, however, in that it merely precludes a YES resolution, not a guaranteed NO payout. That was probably intentional.
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Aug 5, 2016 06:35
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Gonna be so mad for selling my D-370 shares for meager gains if she actually manages to pull this off
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Aug 9, 2016 00:29
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Necc0 posted:Gonna be so mad for selling my D-370 shares for meager gains if she actually manages to pull this off I personally have more trouble drawing a realistic D370 map than a realistic Trump win map so I think NO is a pretty safe bet.
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Aug 9, 2016 07:24
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EngineerSean posted:I personally have more trouble drawing a realistic D370 map than a realistic Trump win map so I think NO is a pretty safe bet. I mean, if every state goes the color it is right now on fivethirtyeight's map, that's 370: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ (but yeah, that's not how probability works, and even if this map's correct 370's still very unlikely) I'm probably going to hold onto my yes shares for a little longer and try to sell them at some sort of peak, which I will inevitably overshoot and lose most of my profits. I am not very good at this. Ditocoaf has issued a correction as of 09:39 on Aug 9, 2016 |
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Aug 9, 2016 09:34
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If Hillary is ahead in Georgia, a 370 map is easy
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Aug 9, 2016 10:25
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Also friendly reminder that you can still get R370.NO for .91 for some loving reason if you like free money
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Aug 9, 2016 13:18
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Arkane posted:If Hillary is ahead in Georgia, a 370 map is easy It'll take AZ, NC, and GA (and holding onto NV, where Trump is still polling close for some unfathomable reason). That said, at this point I'd say it's a solid 35-40% chance; Trump is epically self destructing. The debates will off some chance for a reset or refraining of the election, but at this point I can't be sure he won't actually pull down his pants and expose himself to make some kind of point.
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Aug 9, 2016 14:14
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Necc0 posted:Also friendly reminder that you can still get R370.NO for .91 for some loving reason if you like free money Almost certainly only because it's a 3 month wait and you can put your money into other things, like Hillary winning, for a better return. OAquinas posted:It'll take AZ, NC, and GA (and holding onto NV, where Trump is still polling close for some unfathomable reason). If the anecdotal evidence of mass waves of Hispanics rushing their citizenship so they can vote are correct, they're probably being under represented in polls. Hell, considering Trump is approaching less than 10% support among all non-whites, their desire to vote against him may not be properly baked into the polls.
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Aug 9, 2016 18:04
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NV was underpolled by about 5% in 2012, IIRC, so that's probably true. Lot of spanish-speaking households that get underpolled there being the primary reason for that. Still, you go to the election with the polls you have, not the polls you wish you had...
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Aug 9, 2016 19:30
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EngineerSean posted:I ended up sitting out this week of TvC polls (except for a $6 lottery ticket that I turned into $1 lol) but I think the gap between TvC is going to widen next week and that C+4 or C+5 will be pretty decent bets, depending on the price you can get for them. I made some cash on this this week which didn't offset the losses from various Trump meltdowns. The train isn't stopping here, buy the top 2 brackets for Clinton as soon as they're determined tomorrow.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:00
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I just made a play in the Electoral College market. I'm trying to transition away from a "guaranteed NO profit" thing I did last week, and the state of that market right now made it attractive to do some orders based on what I think is the inevitable movement over the next week or three. I think the aggregate consensus in that market is leaning far too heavily on certain ideas, but I suppose we'll see if I am right 
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Aug 10, 2016 01:07
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EngineerSean posted:I made some cash on this this week which didn't offset the losses from various Trump meltdowns. The train isn't stopping here, buy the top 2 brackets for Clinton as soon as they're determined tomorrow.
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Aug 10, 2016 01:10
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I definitely bet against Johnson, oops. There's still another week left for him to do stupid stuff, and I'm hoping that McMullin's entry will somehow pull support from him.
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Aug 10, 2016 02:27
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Guys I think Ryan might not win his primary by 80 pts. 
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Aug 10, 2016 02:33
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kaishek posted:I definitely bet against Johnson, oops. There's still another week left for him to do stupid stuff, and I'm hoping that McMullin's entry will somehow pull support from him. Nobody is gonna poll McMullin
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Aug 10, 2016 19:50
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Lol @ the new liar markets.
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Aug 10, 2016 19:52
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Necc0 posted:Lol @ the new liar markets. Goddamn there was a loving golden opportunity in the Trump one. Market realized it was overpriced finally. Should have just bought shares instead of being greedy and trying to bid. Oh well.
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Aug 10, 2016 20:09
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I think it's still overpriced. No on 8+ for low 60s is pretty good IMO.
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Aug 10, 2016 20:18
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It seems like a complete crapshoot to guess how many zinger articles Politifact is going to write in a month.
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Aug 11, 2016 04:59
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Lutha Mahtin posted:It seems like a complete crapshoot to guess how many zinger articles Politifact is going to write in a month. if you thought betting on what decisions realclearpolitics.com made was fun, you're gonna love this
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Aug 11, 2016 05:01
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There are 4 pants-on-fire statements for august alone already on there. And Pants-on-fire 4-or-fewer NO is 73 cents. Sooo....anyone want free cash?
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Aug 11, 2016 05:08
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Is anyone else in the Trump participating in all debates market? NO is at 34/39c, which seems cheap to me. It only resolves YES if Trump participates in all of the originally scheduled debates. I think there's zero chance Hillary lets Trump 'negotiate' a different date or different moderators, etc, which makes him stomping his feet and refusing to go more likely. If he does poorly in the first one (decent chance), how hard is it to imagine him accusing the moderators/audience/reporters of liberal bias and not going to the 2nd? https://www.predictit.org/Contract/3304/Will-Trump-participate-in-all-the-official-debates#data
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Aug 11, 2016 05:09
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OAquinas posted:There are 4 pants-on-fire statements for august alone already on there. And Pants-on-fire 4-or-fewer NO is 73 cents. Apparently two of those statements were made during July - hence the PI mod clarification. So the count is starting at 2, I believe...
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Aug 11, 2016 05:10
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thethreeman posted:Apparently two of those statements were made during July - hence the PI mod clarification. Ah. That makes it almost sporting then. This will be interesting.
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Aug 11, 2016 05:13
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PredictIt wants to give me $25 of free money to start trading again. I did really well earlier, cashed out $1000 and was playing with the house's money going into the Maine and Michigan primaries, when in a 2 week period I got hit with 2 black swans, Cruz winning Maine and Bernie winning Michigan, especially after it was called for Hillary. I got burned out and left. How have the opportunities evolved in the last 5 months?
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Aug 11, 2016 05:52
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It's slowed down a bunch now that the primaries are over. I feel like most of us are either waiting for the general election or have succumbed to poll-degeneracy
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Aug 11, 2016 06:00
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Necc0 posted:poll-degeneracy 
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Aug 11, 2016 06:04
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Zeta Taskforce posted:How have the opportunities evolved in the last 5 months?  ANOTHER HOT JOEMAN PROTIP: Bet on Gary Johnson for president while he's cheap. He's pretty drat close to getting a podium at the general election debates and the vast majority of republicans will flock to him (and Trump continues to gently caress up/lose support). He's also getting a surprising amount of airtime to plant the seeds. Once it's inevitably announced that he'll be in the debates, I'd bet his share price will triple to 10c minimum. He's a better speaker than Trump, actually knows policy and can appeal to the working man (lol no minimum wage/TPP/whatever dude just don't think about it, weed's legal now bro, chillax) while his vice president (Weld) was a perfect pick to defend their platform with his successful (and admittedly distinguished yet anti-establishment looking) history. However, he needs to focus on civil liberty arguments and try to avoid policy positions because they're insane and way harder to defend...and pray that they don't bring up he's the only candidate that is currently, vocally supporting the TPP (they will definitely bring this up). Clinton will also have to defend herself on two fronts and her type of soundbite-ish/transparent rhetoric will look really bad when up against Johnson's bluntness. Add in Trump's personal attacks (because that's all he knows) and she's going to get visibly flustered. I have no money to bet but if I did, I'd max out now and sell when it hits 10c or above. Could even go into the high teens based on Johnson's debate performance. Add in the likelihood of the Kochs dumping money into him for advertising costs plus the snowball effect of all the media exposure that brings and an increase in his share price is a lock. Keep in mind that while Trump is always a guest on some show somewhere, he hates the media, can't stop insulting them and isn't pocketbook bedfellows with them other than ratings. If the Kochs financially back Johnson, you're going to see Gary on TV a LOT more because the Koch brothers are the media's sugar-daddies. I don't think Stein will pull it off (unfortunately). I originally thought she'd hit 2c at the very least due to Sanders supporters investing with their emotions/wants but they've all apparently learned their lesson (there's currently 32k 1c shares available so several folks dumped). Her name recognition is way worse than Sanders and she's ideologically opposed to the corporatist mainstream media machine so she's not going to get any more airtime than she is now (virtually none). Green Party also has too much negative association attached much like the word "socialism" but Stein's only got 3 months to combat that instead of Sanders' 1+ year and the majority of voters aren't very proactive in regard to independent research outside of who they see on television (especially third-party candidates). Sanders getting 46% of the vote in the primary with zero name recognition and relatively microscopic media coverage was absolutely insane; it's going to be a billion times worse for Stein. Serious note: I'm not pumping and have never pumped in this thread. Would just rather have goons make money than others if I can't personally invest and genuinely appreciate any bones thrown my way if you score big off my predictions (EngineerSean is a good dude. Sorry to almost give you a heart attack regarding Debbie). I genuinely believe everything I write here and try to include reasons why unless it's obvious I'm making a joke. Sidenote: How the gently caress did the market call Tim Kaine like 2mo in advance? It was up to almost 50c weeks prior which is completely insane in an arena of 5ish realistic potential picks. I feel like someone on the inside (intern?) overheard something and got a ton of their friends onboard because that was legit weird as hell.
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Aug 11, 2016 10:38
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If you think GarJo is a lock for the debates, you can get that at 3-1. It's not looking too great, though. He has a month to double his support.
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Aug 11, 2016 11:11
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Even if Johnson reaches 15% in most polls, it's no guarantee he will get into the debates. The committee that runs the debates is all Republicans and Democrats, and they have total discretion when it comes to which polls they want to include for the benchmark.
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Aug 11, 2016 12:25
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The Joe Man posted:All I've had for the past several months is $1.20 on Bernie winning the presidency (bought a long time ago but it plummeted after the huge NY loss and CA obviously buried the share price). I can't afford to potentially lose anything or have my money tied up right now and the current markets don't really interest me. I cashed out on everything else (the majority of my Bernie shares, Warren VP while she was still mid/high 20's and Carson [lol] & Franken while I could break even or take a super minor loss). Most of the current markets are either a total crapshoot, completely called already or things I know nothing about and don't feel comfortable betting on. The general election market swings are going to get ridiculous though. You're real confident for someone who's not only gotten burned on tons of markets but also blames conspiracy in areas where the market was smarter than you.
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Aug 11, 2016 15:18
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Necc0 posted:You're real confident for someone who's not only gotten burned on tons of markets but also blames conspiracy in areas where the market was smarter than you. joeman is an international treasure
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Aug 11, 2016 15:25
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Haha i didn't almost have a heart attack. I just felt silly was all. All the money in my predict it account right now is roughly a week's pay for me.
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Aug 11, 2016 17:02
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Right now I'd say the best cash is in the electoral vote spread market, and the individual state ones. You can even make just around a 25-33% return by voting on the numerous "clinton wins" markets (they've added one to the list given on a previous page: kaine elected VP) The state ones offer a bit better, anything from 80% return to doubling your cash if you think Clinton can take AZ or NC, but these are longer term obviously.
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Aug 11, 2016 17:34
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Lutha Mahtin posted:I just made a play in the Electoral College market. I was being coy about this before, but I'm going to spill the beans because I think it's funny. A few days ago I moved into a position where I have NOs on the four high tranches and YES on the bottom four. I thought that bettors were overreacting to Clinton's convention bounce and Trump's Hell-week. Surely we would see some regression from that craziness, right? Nope, now we have Trump joking about Presidential assassination, buddying up with Mark Foley, and going back to the "they founded ISIS" line  edit: i noticed that PI gave Trump a two-lie buffer but clinton only got one, to stay within their respective bottom bracket
Lutha Mahtin has issued a correction as of 17:52 on Aug 11, 2016 |
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Aug 11, 2016 17:44
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Lutha Mahtin posted:I was being coy about this before, but I'm going to spill the beans because I think it's funny. A few days ago I moved into a position where I have NOs on the four high tranches and YES on the bottom four. I thought that bettors were overreacting to Clinton's convention bounce and Trump's Hell-week. Surely we would see some regression from that craziness, right? Nope, now we have Trump joking about Presidential assassination, buddying up with Mark Foley, and going back to the "they founded ISIS" line PI aren't fools. Clinton has a handful of POF statements from the last decade. Trump has a bunch from the last year. Clinton at least tries to be technically correct, Trump can't even get sentence structure correct. Clinton will probably resolve B4 or B5, leaning on B5. Maybe next month with debates will be better fodder. If it was pure bullshit-statement artistry then B1 for trump would be...already resolved, really. But they'll probably only whip out the POF publication sparingly...so who knows where Trump will fall on the market.
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Aug 11, 2016 18:12
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edit: Ok so I was missing something. Didnt realize the date on that link is the reported time and not the date of the remark. huge pile of hamburger has issued a correction as of 23:45 on Aug 11, 2016 |
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Aug 11, 2016 23:40
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gently caress yeah Obama delivering for me
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Aug 12, 2016 19:45
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Necc0 posted:It's slowed down a bunch now that the primaries are over. I feel like most of us are either waiting for the general election or have succumbed to poll-degeneracy fwiw i expected this to be the case but between brexit, the conventions/vp markets, and playing states/electoral college market the last 2 months have been my most profitable by quite a lot.
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Aug 13, 2016 00:11
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