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So, Tibisay Lucena has spoken, basically confirming there won't be a referendum this year, and you can be sure as hell it won't be on January either. So, that option is dead. Let us now await the "overwhelming disapproval" the opposition will claim to have over Tibisay's decision, the subsequent failed march in September, and the submissiveness that will ensue from there on. Maduro pa' rato.
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Aug 9, 2016 19:04
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El Hefe posted:Got my U.S visa Good luck dude.
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Aug 9, 2016 19:20
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didn't even have to do the interview
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Hell yeah hefe. Your posts in the f1 thread are what got me to start following Venezuela so good to see you getting out.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:31
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What can the opposition actually do against Maduro? Form what it looks like, it seems that Chavez and Maduro centralized so much power in the presidency that after the PSUV stacked the judiciary, there is not much the opposition can really do other than try and pass laws that are going to be ignored or struck down by the illegitimate judiciary. The legislature was completely defanged right before they entered power, and they have no way to enforce any laws they can pass.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:59
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Venezuelan Constitution posted:“Article 250. This Constitution shall not lose its effect even if its observance is interrupted by force or it is repealed by means other than those provided herein. In such eventuality, every citizen, whether or not vested with authority, has the duty to collaborate in the re-establishment of its effective validity. Those who are found responsible for the acts mentioned in the first part of the preceding paragraph shall be tried in accordance with this Constitution and laws enacted in conformity with it, as shall the principal officials of governments subsequently organized if they have not contributed to the re-establishment of its force and effect.” Given that the PSUV has transformed Venezuelan democracy into a militaristic dictatorship...
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Aug 9, 2016 21:05
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See you in Doral/Weston hefe
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Aug 9, 2016 21:24
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Pharohman777 posted:What can the opposition actually do against Maduro? Did they even bother trying to "pass laws that are going to be ignored or struck down"? The only thing they can do now is start building up a shadow government and pushing for the collapse of the current one - they need to be seen by the people as ready to step in and take over, and then hope that they survive long enough for that to happen. But that would mean actually pissing off Maduro and sticking out their own necks, which they don't seem willing to do, so instead they are going to do nothing.
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Aug 9, 2016 21:36
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Pharohman777 posted:What can the opposition actually do against Maduro? There's no way they're going to do anything by being lenient. Maduro is an unpopular, uncharismatic leader, abandoned by the PSUV voter base. The opposition 'leaders' are all collectively too afraid to do it, but all it takes is someone to rally the people to Miraflores, and that man will be out within the week.
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Aug 9, 2016 21:49
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Lucena's speech today was full of ambiguity and she danced around actually saying that the recall won't happen, but she made it clear that under the best circumstances for the opposition the CNE would be ready to schedule the process in late November. Since the CNE has 90 days to call the referendum, it could potentially happen in mid-late February, almost one year after the opposition started the process. Chalk this up under "another tragic abuse of constitutional rights". It's a big gamble for the PSUV, since by closing off the last peaceful, democratic way to get the change that 70%+ of Venezuelans want, they're betting that people will take this lying down.
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Aug 9, 2016 22:26
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Hey I'm outsider here but you are already a dictatorship where rule of law doesn't matter.
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Aug 9, 2016 22:38
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Pharohman777 posted:What can the opposition actually do against Maduro? Copy the successes of African movements by organizing extraterritorial paramilitary organizations under the cover of the bush and with funding from diaspora institutions for payment of salaries, arrangement of infiltration of rent-seeking institutions in border regions, and bribery of PSUV-controlled military forces in order to receive appropriate intelligence and arrange arms transfers. The opposition is in a very fortunate position to force PSUV to treat it as a legitimate political entity in which to immediately transfer power, or to collapse and sentence everyone whom has ever affiliated themselves with PSUV to the potential of 'revolutionary democratic tribunal'. The other great loving thing about the world is that there is an oil glut, and it would be goddamn painless to convice a lot of not-nice nations and corporations that it benefits their bottom line to fund democratic paramilitaries to eliminate PSUV production capacity. You knock out Venezuelan oil production, you raise global oil prices and kill PSUV's revenue stream. The other opportunity you have is to time this with elections in America. Take Clinton's election as a given, and the Democratic party absofucking lutely pissed off at all things affiliated with Russia due to Russian attacks on America. What you want is to start a proxy war with Russia which gets the Clinton administration's attention. Might I suggested starting by founding a few 'Beneficial Societies for Mutual Agricultural and Livestock Aid' amongst European and North American expatriat communities? From what I gather in this thread, there are Venezuelans in Miami. Organize that community, build ties with the Cuban expatriats, and get American institutions' attention in a manner which makes it much easier to fund and faciliate democracy in Venezuela than it is to continue business as usual. If you Venezuelans truly believe in the spirit of Simon Bolivar, copy what that fucker did and make it work with your hunta. Failing that, enjoy life in a future Angola with North Korean characteristics.
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Aug 9, 2016 23:07
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Please take your medicines. Unlike our friends in Venezuela you have ready access to them but choose to ignore your doctors advice.
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Aug 10, 2016 07:02
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Mozi posted:Sad that Venezuela is losing so many talented people - hopefully in the future you can return to help build it back up again. Maybe our children? I honestly don't see Venezuela improving enough in our lifetime that going back there and leaving behind the life we've forged in some other country seems like a good idea. Once my mom dies there's literally nothing that would tie me to Venezuela that I don't carry with me, anyway.
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Aug 10, 2016 08:53
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My Imaginary GF posted:I cannot think of one failed state where that has ever happened. West Germany E:Honestly though, I can't see Venezuela getting Marshall Plan'd so thats not a good example. Playstation 4 fucked around with this message at 10:05 on Aug 10, 2016 |
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Aug 10, 2016 10:02
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Hugoon Chavez posted:
On that note, are any of you trying to extract family or loved ones? And if so is it an issue of costs or older family members unwilling to leave?
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Aug 10, 2016 10:31
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My Imaginary GF posted:Copy the successes of African movements by organizing extraterritorial paramilitary organizations under the cover of the bush and with funding from diaspora institutions for payment of salaries, arrangement of infiltration of rent-seeking institutions in border regions, and bribery of PSUV-controlled military forces in order to receive appropriate intelligence and arrange arms transfers. Yes, all those African success stories where this happened: from the bountiful nations of Zimbabwe and Congo-Kinshasa, to the egalitarian and civil liberties capitals of Angola and Rwanda. It's a stark contrast to the nightmare of democratic transition in the ruins of South Africa.
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Aug 10, 2016 10:53
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Demiurge4 posted:On that note, are any of you trying to extract family or loved ones? And if so is it an issue of costs or older family members unwilling to leave? Both, really. My mom is a lawyer, and changing countries as a lawyer at almost 60 means you're probably not going to find work of any kind (at least in Spain). She also has two dogs that she loves, so moving here would mean basically paying for the 3 of them. She refuses to move and we can't kidnap her!
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Aug 10, 2016 11:34
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Hugoon Chavez posted:... we can't kidnap her! This thread is full of evidence to the contrary.
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Aug 10, 2016 13:12
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Hugoon Chavez posted:Both, really. A lawyer in Venezuela? Oof. What's that like?
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Aug 10, 2016 14:33
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Spacewolf posted:A lawyer in Venezuela? Oof. What's that like? It's not exciting at all, she mostly just drafts documents for transactions, properties, etc. No litigation or anything of the sort.
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Aug 10, 2016 18:22
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Spacewolf posted:A lawyer in Venezuela? Oof. What's that like? Criminal law is the one that doesn't work. Civil law though, extremely loving profitable. You gotta remember that there's still business being done in the country, it's just done by far shadier folk than before.
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Aug 10, 2016 19:51
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I noticed yesterday the stupid amount of Chavez's posters, paintings, murals, roadside ads, etc that are all over Caracas, it's crazy, you don't see that at all here in Maracaibo, at most a couple Arias Cardenas with Maduro ads but that's it.
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Aug 11, 2016 00:09
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fnox posted:Criminal law is the one that doesn't work. Civil law though, extremely loving profitable. You gotta remember that there's still business being done in the country, it's just done by far shadier folk than before. Yeah... my mom is the only honest Civil Lawyer there is. She just does documents for regular clients, charges a fair price and doesn't turn down work if she has time to do it. She doesn't even work as a lawyer full-time, she runs a Mercantile Publication (no idea how to translate that, it's basically a newspaper that informs about company's policy changes and other stuff, required by law) that's been in the family for 2 Generations and takes clients in the same office. Honestly she's too good for that country and I wish I could get her and the dogs away  El Hefe posted:I noticed yesterday the stupid amount of Chavez's posters, paintings, murals, roadside ads, etc that are all over Caracas, it's crazy, you don't see that at all here in Maracaibo, at most a couple Arias Cardenas with Maduro ads but that's it. Yeah, when I went back last year I was impressed by this too, the political propaganda in Caracas is insane, you can't turn around and not see Chavez' eyes paint somewhere looking at you.
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Aug 11, 2016 08:40
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It's sad to watch a country die in real time. You could have been someone, Venezuela.
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Aug 11, 2016 09:58
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When Tibisay Lucena gave that press conference the other day essentially confirming that the recall referendum wouldn't take place, one of the CNE's rectors was missing: Luis Emilio Rondon. The CNE has a president, a vice-president, and three rectors. Out of those five people, Rondon is the only one who is generally considered to be pro-opposition. Yesterday, Rondon issued an interesting statement explaining his take on Lucena's announcement earlier this week. In the statement, Rondon criticizes the CNE's lack of impartiality, and points out that the organization has and continues to violate its own regulations with the end result being the delay of the entire process. Here's Rondon's statement: quote:On Monday, I voiced my disagreement with the decision taken by the majority of the [CNE] that the collection of signatures from 20% of the registered voters in favour of a recall would take place in late October. After Lucena's press conference, the National Assembly announced that it would start the process of replacing the CNE leadership. If it goes as well as the replacement of TSJ magistrates, then this will be another in a long list of ultimately futile gestures. The Lone Badger posted:It's sad to watch a country die in real time. You could have been someone, Venezuela. Venezuela is the equivalent of drunk David Hasselfhoff eating a cheeseburger 
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Aug 11, 2016 14:29
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Hugoon Chavez posted:Yeah... my mom is the only honest Civil Lawyer there is. She just does documents for regular clients, charges a fair price and doesn't turn down work if she has time to do it. She doesn't even work as a lawyer full-time, she runs a Mercantile Publication (no idea how to translate that, it's basically a newspaper that informs about company's policy changes and other stuff, required by law) that's been in the family for 2 Generations and takes clients in the same office. We call those 'trade publications' or 'trade papers' in America.
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Aug 11, 2016 16:33
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El Hefe posted:I noticed yesterday the stupid amount of Chavez's posters, paintings, murals, roadside ads, etc that are all over Caracas, it's crazy, you don't see that at all here in Maracaibo, at most a couple Arias Cardenas with Maduro ads but that's it. I'm late, but good luck.
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Aug 11, 2016 23:33
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El Hefe posted:I noticed yesterday the stupid amount of Chavez's posters, paintings, murals, roadside ads, etc that are all over Caracas, it's crazy, you don't see that at all here in Maracaibo, at most a couple Arias Cardenas with Maduro ads but that's it. Holy poo poo, is that not a thing around the country? I've gotten used to the big brother poo poo living here but I always guessed it was something normal. I'm surrounded by statues and murals of Chavez's eyes living in the center of Caracas.
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Aug 11, 2016 23:55
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http://time.com/venezuela-brink/ yikes
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Aug 12, 2016 05:49
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I will have to pick that up. grillo has done 2 great books on cartel/crime in south america. its interesting and depressing stuff.
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Aug 13, 2016 20:32
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Where does Chavismo still have the most support?
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Aug 14, 2016 15:08
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Kurtofan posted:Where does Chavismo still have the most support? The armed forces.
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Aug 14, 2016 16:20
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Venezuelan crisis has finally started to have a non-negligible presence in my newsfeed and social media is talking about it too. Have things gotten notably more unstable and bad this past week or is it just that we're exceeding a threshold of humanitarian concern where desperation takes in and starts riots?
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Aug 14, 2016 16:45
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Kavros posted:Venezuelan crisis has finally started to have a non-negligible presence in my newsfeed and social media is talking about it too. Have things gotten notably more unstable and bad this past week or is it just that we're exceeding a threshold of humanitarian concern where desperation takes in and starts riots? Well, the country didn't burst into flames during the past week. Think about it as a gradual process, as Venezuela continues its steady march into a full collapse, there'll be more and more articles and discussions about it. A couple of days ago the government decided to raise the minimum wage from approximately Bs15,000 to Bs22,500 and the accompanying 'food vouchers' went from Bs18,000 to Bs42,500 – in total, the minimum wage jumped from Bs33,000 to Bs65,000. Naturally, this will only fuel inflation since the government fuels these raises by printing more money and we already were having problems keeping up with the sheer number of bills required to keep the economy running (they refuse to print bills above Bs100 to save face). A lot of places were already refusing to accept the food vouchers that accompany wages because apparently, the government takes a long while to pay for them once they've been used. Maybe we'll see this issue increase in the coming weeks since they now almost double actual wages for workers. This decision will also likely result in a lot of business closing down shop or mass layoffs since stores won't be able to afford to keep the same number of employees. Fewer businesses lead to fewer products on the street, higher prices, and longer queues. All in all, it's another in a long line of successful measures undertaken by the government – that is if they're actively trying to gently caress up the country as fast as possible.
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Aug 14, 2016 17:07
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Kurtofan posted:Where does Chavismo still have the most support? D&D. They will fight success down to the last Venezuelan.
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Aug 14, 2016 17:14
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Kurtofan posted:Where does Chavismo still have the most support? Outside of Venezuela
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Aug 14, 2016 17:24
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Labradoodle posted:A lot of places were already refusing to accept the food vouchers that accompany wages because apparently, the government takes a long while to pay for them once they've been used. Sounds like economic sabotage to me! I eagerly await Maduro's appropriation (and closure) of any store that refuses to accept those vouchers. (Thereby making the situation even worse, but hey, who's counting?)
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Aug 14, 2016 18:44
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Kurtofan posted:Where does Chavismo still have the most support? Wikipedia has two maps that might help to answer this question. One shows the state results of the 2015 parliamentary elections, while the other shows the municipal results. The darker the colour on the maps is, the more dense the population is in that jurisdiction. Looking at the two maps, we can see that generally speaking denser areas (i.e, urban areas) supported the opposition in the elections, while less-populated areas tended to support the PSUV. Most of the major urban centres went to the opposition, including Caracas and the surrounding area, Valencia, and Maracaibo. At the same time, we know that the election had a voter turnout of 74.17%, and that 56.22% of votes went to the opposition (7,726,066 for the opposition vs. 5,622,844 for the PSUV). There's also the matter of the difference between chavismo and madurismo. While Maduro and the core of the PSUV will argue that there is no difference between the two terms, you'll hear many disenchanted PSUV supporters say that while they are chavista, they are not madurista. This makes your question a little bit different to answer, because I think that there are more chavistas that maduristas. I also think that Maduro has poisoned chavismo to the point that its really unpopular today, but it could conceivably become more popular were Maduro to leave power. Having said all that, a survey by the Alfredo Keller y Asociados firm from August 5 shows that 72% of chavistas have a negative outlook of the country's situation. 41% blame the government, 23% blame Maduro personally, while 10% blame Chavez and only 3% blame "the socialism of the 21st century". 20% of respondents say they consider themselves to be chavistas.
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Aug 14, 2016 19:08
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Kurtofan posted:Where does Chavismo still have the most support? Jeremy Corbyn rallies and the offices of Jacobin magazine
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Aug 14, 2016 20:11
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Chuck Boone posted:
So, "I'm not a conservative but I always vote Republican". Chavismo, in the style that it used to exist, is dead and it's never going to make a comeback in Venezuela, not as society continues to fail. I'm curious if there will actually be a revolution. This exact same thing happened in Zimbabwe a few years ago, with the currency rapidly becoming worthless and goods becoming difficult to acquire, but the people didn't spring into action. Granted, those two countries exist on entirely different planes, but I'm beginning to doubt that the opposition is competent enough to do anything worthwhile.
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Aug 15, 2016 01:08
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