USPOL August: Quoth The Donald, "Arzy more."

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL August: Quoth The Donald, "Arzy more."

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Fuck You And Diebold: Sep 15, 2004; by Athanatos

Lessail posted:

Is he reusing an old pic or did he take a near identical selfie cause I swear I've seen it before

He poses with mascots a bunch

# ? Aug 10, 2016 08:33

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# ? May 25, 2024 04:43

Dr. Arbitrary: Mar 15, 2006; Bleak Gremlin

What if instead, I make a facebook group that is mostly people who have similar political views as I do, maybe a youtube channel, a twitter, newsletter etc.
Then I announce via all those channels that I'm doing a poll and get 1000 respondents.
That's like a 4% error rate if I did my math right!

# ? Aug 10, 2016 08:35

Assepoester: Jul 18, 2004; Can't post for 10 years!; Melman v2

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xb_N02-vh8M

# ? Aug 10, 2016 08:37

Fuck You And Diebold: Sep 15, 2004; by Athanatos

Dr. Arbitrary posted:

What if instead, I make a facebook group that is mostly people who have similar political views as I do, maybe a youtube channel, a twitter, newsletter etc.
Then I announce via all those channels that I'm doing a poll and get 1000 respondents.
That's like a 4% error rate if I did my math right!

If you asked two people and got each of them to ask two people and so on, we could poll the whole country in days! We probably wouldn't even need to do an election

# ? Aug 10, 2016 08:37

Grundulum: Feb 28, 2006

Ice Phisherman posted:

I just don't know at this point. I feel like the political race has turned into some sort of political fanfic, but then went best seller despite how poorly written and stupid it is. Reality is stranger than fiction.

Fifty Shades of Orange?

# ? Aug 10, 2016 08:42

Epic High Five: Jun 5, 2004

gently caress You And Diebold posted:

He poses with mascots a bunch

As a stuffed suit caricature of a transparent marketing ploy himself, he feels as home with giant foam hotdog costumes

# ? Aug 10, 2016 08:46

acejackson42: Mar 27, 2005; You didn't say what I think you said...

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Trump has barely gone one week without making GBS threads his pants. He'll do something really awful again just give him time.

Not eight hours later...

# ? Aug 10, 2016 10:44

blue squares: Sep 28, 2007

VitalSigns posted:

1) Sure someone who hates Trump would imagine they'd be embarrassed to say they're voting for him but why would a Trump supporter feel that way, they support Trump!

Maybe they are sad men whose wives force them to wear V-neck sweaters

# ? Aug 10, 2016 11:07

edrith: Apr 10, 2013

trump has to go for a hearing about his rape case

in september.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 13:27

Cimber: Feb 3, 2014

I really miss the days of old were we spent our election cycles debating the important facts of if a candidate really earned his purple hearts, or if a typewriter could produce text with a specific font.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 13:37

GABA ghoul: Oct 29, 2011

edrith posted:

trump has to go for a hearing about his rape case

in september.

so, did trump rape some folks? (I'm not caught up on his latest exploits yet, stopped watching when he started beefing with that infant)

# ? Aug 10, 2016 13:43

Tollymain: Jul 9, 2010; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

probably not in the last couple days, but he did make a poorly-veiled call for hrc's assassination yesterday

# ? Aug 10, 2016 13:45

BeefThief: Aug 8, 2007

imagine a cheeto on the edge of a cliff...

# ? Aug 10, 2016 13:46

GABA ghoul: Oct 29, 2011

Tollymain posted:

probably not in the last couple days, but he did make a poorly-veiled call for hrc's assassination yesterday

classic trump :allears:

# ? Aug 10, 2016 13:47

edrith: Apr 10, 2013

waitwhatno posted:

so, did trump rape some folks? (I'm not caught up on his latest exploits yet, stopped watching when he started beefing with that infant)

he's been accused of raping a girl who was 13 at the time in the 90s. there was a case filed in california that was dismissed on technical grounds and refiled in new york state.

the lawsuit will probably fail because the Jane Doe filing it wants to override the statute of limitations, but, you know. false rape accusations are genuinely pretty rare and there has to be a better way to orchestrate a money grab than suing a person with a team of on-staff lawyers (that he doesn't pay)

# ? Aug 10, 2016 13:51

Spoondick: Jun 9, 2000

Trump is going to get himself arrested during this election for saying criminally stupid poo poo, isn't he? Might actually help his political career some, worked for Mandela... and Hitler.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 14:04

Kilroy: Oct 1, 2000

edrith posted:

he's been accused of raping a girl who was 13 at the time in the 90s. there was a case filed in california that was dismissed on technical grounds and refiled in new york state.

the lawsuit will probably fail because the Jane Doe filing it wants to override the statute of limitations, but, you know. false rape accusations are genuinely pretty rare and there has to be a better way to orchestrate a money grab than suing a person with a team of on-staff lawyers (that he doesn't pay)

Funny we were just talking about statistics, too.

False rape accusations may be rare, however when the rape accusation is of a Presidential candidate or otherwise massively famous person, that is a huge confounding factor. A rape accusation against a famous person is very rare, as rape accusations go, to the extent that every single one of them could be false and it wouldn't move the needle one bit on the data that tells you false accusations are rare. You really, really can't apply the conclusions you draw from looking at a large sample of events, and blindly apply them to a very particular and very small subset of that sample. You will be wrong a lot.

I mean I don't like defending Trump - please don't make me do it again. He seems like the kind of shithead that would rape a thirteen year-old girl, and if the evidence is there then throw him in jail and he can do the debates over Skype or whatever.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 14:06

Vienna Circlejerk: Jan 28, 2003; The great science sausage party!

Somebody's doing the raping. Who's doing the raping?

# ? Aug 10, 2016 14:16

Sir Tonk: Apr 18, 2006; Young Orc

Cardboard Box A posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xb_N02-vh8M

"I hope you have your clinton body count page open..."

edit, this is worth watching it's so bad

Sir Tonk fucked around with this message at 14:21 on Aug 10, 2016

# ? Aug 10, 2016 14:17

Jimbozig: Sep 30, 2003; I like sharing and ice cream and animals.

Rodatose posted:

The p-value or probability you get from a stats test is the chance that such a result is due to a fluke

... assuming the null hypothesis to be true.

It's a conditional probability. Assuming that there is no such effect, the probability of finding as large an effect as you did purely through sampling error (i.e. by chance) is the p-value.

Specifically, it is NOT the probability that you made a type 1 error given that you were able to reject the null hypothesis.

I'm making this post because I just finished sitting in a room watching students write a stats test and this is a commonly mis-stated thing. When you get a positive result, the p-value does not tell you the probability that you are wrong, much as we might wish it did.

Jimbozig fucked around with this message at 14:24 on Aug 10, 2016

# ? Aug 10, 2016 14:21

Mr Hootington: Jul 24, 2008; I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Vienna Circlejerk posted:

Somebody's doing the raping. Who's doing the raping?

Nobody famous apparently.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 14:23

Tom Guycot: Oct 15, 2008; Chief of Governors

Vienna Circlejerk posted:

Somebody's doing the raping. Who's doing the raping?

I hear it's the Mexicans.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 14:36

Mel Mudkiper: Jan 19, 2012; At this point, Mudman abruptly ends the conversation. He usually insists on the last word.

I am consistently amazed at the people who claim voting for Trump will be a good thing for progressives because it will destroy the system holding progressivism back

# ? Aug 10, 2016 14:38

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Mel Mudkiper posted:

I am consistently amazed at the people who claim voting for Trump will be a good thing for progressives because it will destroy the system holding progressivism back

There will always be idiots that think the world just needs to get a little worse so it'll get better. They're also usually people relatively safe from the 'make things a little worse' part.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 14:40

Dr Cheeto: Mar 2, 2013; Wretched Harp

Trump is a good thing for Bitcoin

# ? Aug 10, 2016 14:41

FAUXTON: Jun 2, 2005; spero che tu stia bene

Mel Mudkiper posted:

I am consistently amazed at the people who claim voting for Trump will be a good thing for progressives because it will destroy the system holding progressivism back

That's because they have a thing for the middle part where everyone suffers unspeakable horror as society collapses. It's about the journey and not really the destination with those folks.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 14:42

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

edrith posted:

trump has to go for a hearing about his rape case

in september.

And his Trump University case is going forward.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 14:45

Eifert Posting: Apr 1, 2007; Most of the time he catches it every time.; Grimey Drawer

VitalSigns posted:

This reduces down to the goddamn crazy justification in like two questions.

1) Sure someone who hates Trump would imagine they'd be embarrassed to say they're voting for him but why would a Trump supporter feel that way, they support Trump!
2) Even if they did, why would they help Trump's opponent by lying to a pollster anonymously over the phone?

I'm thinking more about the never Hillary types, not enthusiastic Trumpers. I don't think it'd be a significant % of course but it may be enough to be noticed during the election. More of an "up at 2 AM trying to sleep" silly worry than something serious.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 14:46

Grouchio: Aug 31, 2014

Mister Adequate posted:

I was great at math until I hit the statistics courses and then I got my rear end reamed in half. I just can't wrap my head around how it all works. That said I accept that it does and people way smarter than me have developed incredibly good systems for polling and stuff. Except in the UK of course

# ? Aug 10, 2016 14:47

Yinlock: Oct 22, 2008

Luigi Thirty posted:

Police are really really really bad at guns

To be fair literal murder is an extremely good simulation of lethal force.

For the first time Trump has made me feel good-will for him by, via incompetence, chaining the NRA lunatics to his sinking ship. The issue of people disapproving of casual calls to murder strikes at the core of everything they believe in.

I mean that core is just a cartoon sign that says "GUNS" but still.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 14:47

greatn: Nov 15, 2006; by Lowtax

I hope the October surprise is Trump's dad turns out to have been an illegal immigrant and Trump is an anchor baby.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 14:47

Bushiz: Sep 21, 2004; The #1 Threat to Ba Sing Se; Grimey Drawer

Kalman posted:

Not on IP (they still do decent work on privacy and civil liberties.) They're both lobbying groups, they just have different interests. Ernie Falcon, their IP lobbyist, is a good guy and a decent lobbyist but don't pretend they're meaningfully different from RIAA, they're just taking a different position.

This is the dumbest truth is in the middle bullshit I've read in a while.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 14:48

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Jimbozig posted:

... assuming the null hypothesis to be true.

It's a conditional probability. Assuming that there is no such effect, the probability of finding as large an effect as you did purely through sampling error (i.e. by chance) is the p-value.

Specifically, it is NOT the probability that you made a type 1 error given that you were able to reject the null hypothesis.

I'm making this post because I just finished sitting in a room watching students write a stats test and this is a commonly mis-stated thing. When you get a positive result, the p-value does not tell you the probability that you are wrong, much as we might wish it did.

Yes. This. So many people have no idea what p-values actually are and how to use them. I remember in my advanced econometrics class our professor drilled into our heads that the proper language was "you can/cannot reject the null hypothesis that *null hypothesis here* at the *significance level*" and not something about the hypothesis being true or false.

538 did a good article on it:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/statisticians-found-one-thing-they-can-agree-on-its-time-to-stop-misusing-p-values/

538 posted:

Statisticians Found One Thing They Can Agree On: It�s Time To Stop Misusing P-Values

Little p-value

What are you trying to say

Of significance?

� Stephen Ziliak, Roosevelt University economics professor

How many statisticians does it take to ensure at least a 50 percent chance of a disagreement about p-values? According to a tongue-in-cheek assessment by statistician George Cobb of Mount Holyoke College, the answer is two � or one. So it�s no surprise that when the American Statistical Association gathered 26 experts to develop a consensus statement on statistical significance and p-values, the discussion quickly became heated.

It may sound crazy to get indignant over a scientific term that few lay people have even heard of, but the consequences matter. The misuse of the p-value can drive bad science (there was no disagreement over that), and the consensus project was spurred by a growing worry that in some scientific fields, p-values have become a litmus test for deciding which studies are worthy of publication. As a result, research that produces p-values that surpass an arbitrary threshold are more likely to be published, while studies with greater or equal scientific importance may remain in the file drawer, unseen by the scientific community.

The results can be devastating, said Donald Berry, a biostatistician at the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center. �Patients with serious diseases have been harmed,� he wrote in a commentary published today. �Researchers have chased wild geese, finding too often that statistically significant conclusions could not be reproduced.� Faulty statistical conclusions, he added, have real economic consequences.

�The p-value was never intended to be a substitute for scientific reasoning,� the ASA�s executive director, Ron Wasserstein, said in a press release. On that point, the consensus committee members agreed, but statisticians have deep philosophical differences1 about the proper way to approach inference and statistics, and �this was taken as a battleground for those different views,� said Steven Goodman, co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford. Much of the dispute centered around technical arguments over frequentist versus Bayesian methods and possible alternatives or supplements to p-values. �There were huge differences, including profoundly different views about the core problems and practices in need of reform,� Goodman said. �People were apoplectic over it.�

The group debated and discussed the issues for more than a year before finally producing a statement they could all sign. They released that consensus statement on Monday, along with 20 additional commentaries from members of the committee. The ASA statement is intended to address the misuse of p-values and promote a better understanding of them among researchers and science writers, and it marks the first time the association has taken an official position on a matter of statistical practice. The statement outlines some fundamental principles regarding p-values.

Among the committee�s tasks: Selecting a definition of the p-value that nonstatisticians could understand. They eventually settled on this: �Informally, a p-value is the probability under a specified statistical model that a statistical summary of the data (for example, the sample mean difference between two compared groups) would be equal to or more extreme than its observed value.� That definition is about as clear as mud (I stand by my conclusion that even scientists can�t easily explain p-values), but the rest of the statement and the ideas it presents are far more accessible.

One of the most important messages is that the p-value cannot tell you if your hypothesis is correct. Instead, it�s the probability of your data given your hypothesis. That sounds tantalizingly similar to �the probability of your hypothesis given your data,� but they�re not the same thing, said Stephen Senn, a biostatistician at the Luxembourg Institute of Health. To understand why, consider this example. �Is the pope Catholic? The answer is yes,� said Senn. �Is a Catholic the pope? The answer is probably not. If you change the order, the statement doesn�t survive.�

A common misconception among nonstatisticians is that p-values can tell you the probability that a result occurred by chance. This interpretation is dead wrong, but you see it again and again and again and again. The p-value only tells you something about the probability of seeing your results given a particular hypothetical explanation � it cannot tell you the probability that the results are true or whether they�re due to random chance. The ASA statement�s Principle No. 2: �P-values do not measure the probability that the studied hypothesis is true, or the probability that the data were produced by random chance alone.�

Nor can a p-value tell you the size of an effect, the strength of the evidence or the importance of a result. Yet despite all these limitations, p-values are often used as a way to separate true findings from spurious ones, and that creates perverse incentives. When the goal shifts from seeking the truth to obtaining a p-value that clears an arbitrary threshold (0.05 or less is considered �statistically significant� in many fields), researchers tend to fish around in their data and keep trying different analyses until they find something with the right p-value, as you can see for yourself in a p-hacking tool we built last year.

Indeed, many of the ASA committee�s members argue in their commentaries that the problem isn�t p-values, just the way they�re used � �failing to adjust them for cherry picking, multiple testing, post-data subgroups and other biasing selection effects,� as Deborah Mayo, a philosopher of statistics at Virginia Tech, puts it. When p-values are treated as a way to sort results into bins labeled significant or not significant, the vast efforts to collect and analyze data are degraded into mere labels, said Kenneth Rothman, an epidemiologist at Boston University.

The 20 commentaries published with the ASA statement present a range of ideas about where to go from here. Some committee members argued that there should be a move to rely more on other measures, such as confidence intervals or Bayesian analyses. Others felt that switching to something else would only shift the problem around. �The solution is not to reform p-values or to replace them with some other statistical summary or threshold,� wrote Columbia University statistician Andrew Gelman, �but rather to move toward a greater acceptance of uncertainty and embracing of variation.�

If there�s one takeaway from the ASA statement, it�s that p-values are not badges of truth and p < 0.05 is not a line that separates real results from false ones. They�re simply one piece of a puzzle that should be considered in the context of other evidence.

This story began with a haiku from one of the p-value document�s companion responses; let�s end it with a limerick by University of Michigan biostatistician Roderick Little.

In statistics, one rule did we cherish:

P point oh five we publish, else perish!

Said Val Johnson, �that�s out of date, Our studies don�t replicate

P point oh oh five, then null is rubbish!�

# ? Aug 10, 2016 15:02

Yinlock: Oct 22, 2008

readingatwork posted:

Imagine if Donald had run as a Democrat with basically the same platform and now the election was between the Donald and Jeb Bush. That's kind of what it's like to be a Republican right now. For many he's just better than the alternative, even with all the crazy.

Remember, Trump often says things that are profoundly true but are rarely discussed directly in politics (yes, I know most of it is broken clock theory at work). He's absolutely correct when he says Hillary and other politicians are for sale and he's absolutely right when he says that globalization is destroying people's lives. Yet if Trump looses then who would fill his shoes on these issues? Hillary? I seriously doubt it. In fact from a certain point of view Trump is the last chance we could have at deep systemic reform for decades. Compared to that what's a racist comment or two? Particularly to your average conservative that was never too great on the race front anyways.

Am I going to have to bring out the Feelings Are Not Facts song again.

I mean yes, from a certain point of view Trump is the last great chance for political reform, but from a non-insane point of view he's a dangerous lunatic. The reason he never ran as Democrat was because he could not, only in the standard Republican voter, conditioned by decades of Fox News and racism, could he find easy marks. Ignoring the fact that Bernie's actually already started the reform ball rolling and voting Trump is pissing that away(unless you consider "inconveniencing the rich in any way" to be corrupt)"

And a "racist comment or two" is kind of downplaying the fact that Trump's entire campaign is based on racism. The globalization boodyman is vastly overshadowed by the man who's dropping fascist rhetoric and blurting out impulsive statements about how his political opponents should be jailed or murdered.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 15:07

edrith: Apr 10, 2013

CommieGIR posted:

And his Trump University case is going forward.

yeah, and that's also delicious, but he doesn't have to be in court for that til after the election.

The Republican nominee has to appear at a hearing for a sexual assault lawsuit when he's supposed to be focusing on campaigning and debate prep. Granted, I'm not very up on historical elections, but I'm pretty sure nothing like that has happened before. Trump is truly a game changer.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 15:10

Demon Of The Fall: May 1, 2004; Nap Ghost

In other policing news, a mentally handicapped man sleeping in his yard has cops in armored vehicles and machine guns roll up mistaking him for a carjacking suspect. When he runs towards one of their tanks after they throw flash grenades and shoot rubber bullets at him, he's shot dead.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...omepage%2Fstory

# ? Aug 10, 2016 15:10

Mr Hootington: Jul 24, 2008; I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Yinlock posted:

Am I going to have to bring out the Feelings Are Not Facts song again.

I mean yes, from a certain point of view Trump is the last great chance for political reform, but from a non-insane point of view he's a dangerous lunatic. The reason he never ran as Democrat was because he could not, only in the standard Republican voter, conditioned by decades of Fox News and racism, could he find easy marks. Ignoring the fact that Bernie's actually already started the reform ball rolling and voting Trump is pissing that away(unless you consider "inconveniencing the rich in any way" to be corrupt)"

And a "racist comment or two" is kind of downplaying the fact that Trump's entire campaign is based on racism. The globalization boodyman is vastly overshadowed by the man who's dropping fascist rhetoric and blurting out impulsive statements about how his political opponents should be jailed or murdered.

I see someone doesn't understand the actual meaning and context of Donald Trump's words.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 15:11

Mr Hootington: Jul 24, 2008; I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Demon Of The Fall posted:

In other policing news, a mentally handicapped man sleeping in his yard has cops in armored vehicles and machine guns roll up mistaking him for a carjacking suspect. When he runs towards one of their tanks after they throw flash grenades and shoot rubber bullets at him, he's shot dead.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...omepage%2Fstory

Whoa! Filled in the mentally disabled, mistaken identity, excessive force, example of militarization, and black person spots on my police violence bingo card for August.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 15:15

computer parts: Nov 18, 2010; PLEASE CLAP

Kilroy posted:

And then people complain about how pop culture is garbage and everything is lovely reality TV shows and Hollywood reboots.

Which would only get worse with lower copyrights.

Like, we had a million Sherlock Holmes adaptations a few years ago and that's public domain.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 15:18

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# ? May 25, 2024 04:43

EwokEntourage: Jun 10, 2008; BREYER: Actually, Antonin, you got it backwards. See, a power bottom is actually generating all the dissents by doing most of the work.

SCALIA: Stephen, I've heard that speed has something to do with it.

BREYER: Speed has everything to do with it.

edrith posted:

yeah, and that's also delicious, but he doesn't have to be in court for that til after the election.

The Republican nominee has to appear at a hearing for a sexual assault lawsuit when he's supposed to be focusing on campaigning and debate prep. Granted, I'm not very up on historical elections, but I'm pretty sure nothing like that has happened before. Trump is truly a game changer.

It's an initial conference. Trump probably won't even be there unless the judge decides trump needs to be there for some odd reason

# ? Aug 10, 2016 15:19

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL August: Quoth The Donald, "Arzy more."

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